The Best Free Agent You've Never Heard Of

[Adam Friedman]

The free agent starting pitching class includes the presumptive National League Cy Young, the greatest player of all time, and a handful of proven MLB frontline starters. Still, there's a good chance you've never heard of the most intriguing starting pitcher in the class. Yoshinobu Yamamoto may be the best Japanese pitcher ever to come to Major League Baseball, and there have been some great ones.

Image courtesy of © Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

If the Twins can make one more massive long-term investment in this team, Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes the most sense of any free agent, reasonably assuming Minnesota won't shatter an MLB record to sign his Japanese compatriot, Shohei Ohtani . Given the lack of investment in any free agent pitching and the status of the T.V. deal, it would be surprising to see the Twins shell out big money, but besides Ohtani, there's nobody better in the free agent market to help the Twins build off their 2023 division title and playoff run. 

A Special NPB Performer
Yamamato burst onto the NPB scene for the Orix Buffaloes at 19 years old in 2017 and hasn't looked back. In that season, he posted a 2.35 ERA in 57.1 IP. He then hit a new level in 2021, winning the first of three consecutive Sawamura Awards (the NPB equivalent of the Cy Young Award)- becoming the first player to do so since 1958.  

He has been simply dominant to the tune of a 1.82 career ERA- including a 1.16 ERA in 2023. Tim Britton of the Athletic put together a version of ERA+ for Japanese pitchers who came over to MLB- which adjusts their ERA for the NPB run-scoring environment. Using this metric over their final three seasons in NPB, Yamamoto will be the best NPB pitcher to come stateside, edging out Masahiro Tanaka . 

Ace-Level Stuff
Yamamoto's success in the NPB makes him an exciting free-agent target, but his stuff makes him an incredibly tantalizing talent. He has a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, a nasty splitter, and a unique and fantastic high-spin curveball- which work together to keep the ball on the ground and strike out plenty of hitters. That is a nasty mix that will allow him to get lefties and righties out. 

Yamamoto has only given up 36 home runs in 967 NPB innings. That is an absurd .4 HR/9. Further, in 2023, he posted a solid 9.3 SO/9 and a fantastic 1.5 BB/9. Keeping the ball in the ballpark, minimizing walks, and putting up a solid strikeout rate bodes well for sustainable success. Scouts, unsurprisingly, view him as a potential number-one starter and as a step up from Kodai Senga , who had an exceptional rookie season in 2023.   

A Rare Expensive Opportunity
A 25-year-old with ace-level stuff is not often available in free agency, so Yamamoto will demand a lot of money- likely over $200 million, and the team who signs him will have to pay Orix a posting fee over $20 million. But Yamamoto seems highly likely to perform even better than his massive contract because it's unlikely any team will pay what he's worth, given his lack of MLB experience. 

The Twins have never paid a starting pitcher long-term, but the chance to bring in a number-one starter at a slightly depressed value hasn't come around. They should pay over the market value because he's far more likely than a typical free agent to outperform his market over the entire term of the contract. The Twins front office should pay for Yamamoto's stuff and upside because he could be as good as any starting pitcher they've had in years. 

The Mets are reportedly the favorites to land Yamamoto, so it's unlikely the Twins will land him, but they should attempt to make him an offer he can't refuse- one that accurately values his ace-level upside. With a Yamamoto/Pablo Lopez one-two punch for the immediate future, the sky is the limit for the rotation.

Do you want the Twins to pursue Yamamoto?

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[Mike Sixel]

Yes, 100 times, yes. They won't win the bidding though. 

[ashbury]

I would love it, finances permitting.

Maybe "finances permitting" shall be my off-season disclaimer to every transaction proposed here, just as "barring injury" was my get-out-of-jail-free card for pre-season predictions.  I.e., I would love it, but we'll be outbid by several teams, true any off-season but especially so when the FO is letting it be known that the TV situation is the deal-breaker for them.

[Jocko87]

I would love this move if they could pull it off. Speaking of TV deals, a giant inroad to a baseball crazy market might help. It's not going to close the gap but it might cover the posting fee over the length of the contract.

There is a chance the Ohtani shadow will distract a lot of his potential suitors. Best free agency news for the Twins in general is the Ohtani deal taking months.

[Fatbat]

If the Pohlads could ever figure out marketing, they could make money at spending money in baseball.  This dude, like Otani, is gold for a franchise. 

[Karbo]

Fun to think about, but I can't see it happening. According to the Athletic the Twins want to trim at least 10% from payroll due to TV deal. They just don't have the room to get in a bidding war.

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Fun to think about, but I can't see it happening. According to the Athletic the Twins want to trim at least 10% from payroll due to TV deal. They just don't have the room to get in a bidding war.

They can still improve this team If at least 10% means they are willing to go as high as 90% under the right circumstances.  That's still $140M.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

If the Pohlads could ever figure out marketing, they could make money at spending money in baseball.  This dude, like Otani, is gold for a franchise. 

You might want to think this through.  If Ohtani will generate $50M for the Twins.  He will generate $100M for the Dodgers.

[Doctor Gast]

Japanese love  their baseball. Twins could easily add extra  good income by selling broadcasting rights to Japan to watch Yotomoto & mechandize . Or even to Korea if they also want to sign Lee. Something to consider.

[Karbo]

59 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They can still improve this team If at least 10% means they are willing to go as high as 90% under the right circumstances.  That's still $140M.

That would leave them a little under 20 mil to spend after accounting for the players already under contract by my estimation. There are still a few other holes to fill. I just don't see them winning a bidding war, and paying the posting fee. It would be great if they did though.

[Otaknam]

If the team could print money like Boston, New York, Dodgers, then yes. But with no TV contract for next year this isn’t happening. 

[TopGunn#22]

Yamamoto is certainly the real deal.  But Mike Sixel hit the nail on the head when it comes to bidding for him.  We just won't win.  I know that sounds defeatist but I'm trying to be realistic.  When always reliable SP talented teams like the Dodgers and Cardinals are as desperate for SP as they are (each of them need at least TWO SP's for next season) and you add the LONG list of everybody else who needs SP (rich teams like the Mets, Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox) heck, even the BRAVES say they need a SP,  there is no way the Twins can win a bidding war, especially with the news that payroll will be CUT for next season.

Even the secondary market candidates are going to be in high demand.  So my worry is, the Twins M.O. is to sleep in while the market opens and after a couple leisurely cups of coffee to stimulate those brain cells and a crossword puzzle or two, they check in to see what's happened so far, only to discover there's nobody left but Dylan Bundy looking to make a comeback.  They'll tell us they "tried" and maybe even mention that they conquered TWO crossword puzzles while the market was going crazy, but in the end, just didn't see a value move that made sense.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

That would leave them a little under 20 mil to spend after accounting for the players already under contract by my estimation. There are still a few other holes to fill. I just don't see them winning a bidding war, and paying the posting fee. It would be great if they did though.

I am assuming Polanco and Farmer are not both going to be here and they just might trade both.  Also assuming Gordon is gone.  That's another $12-18M.

[rv78]

It's always nice to have a dream after drinking your daily dose of Twins Kool-Aid.

[Nine of twelve]

The video of his unusual curveball release was very interesting. I worry about whether MLB hitters will be able to pick that up. It would be a significant problem if he consistently tips that pitch. I'm not a pitching coach but I doubt that he could get the same action with a different grip and release. The other thing I wonder about is whether this release stresses his arm. It seems to be an unnatural delivery but again I'm not an expert. 

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I am assuming Polanco and Farmer are not both going to be here and they just might trade both.  Also assuming Gordon is gone.  That's another $12-18M.

Farmer probably but I don't think Polo will get traded until at least around the trade deadline. They will have to see if the rookies are for real before moving him.

[Shaitan]

As long as everybody understands he'll miss 2 years of the contract due to Tommy John surgery.

138 pitches at age 25? 

[KBJ1]

Yes please. But if not him, then the other Japanese pitcher coming over could also be worth a look. Equally good numbers.

[Guest]

Didn't TD just post an interview with Falvey in which he says payroll is headed south in 2024?  Believe in Santa Claus still?

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Didn't TD just post an interview with Falvey in which he says payroll is headed south in 2024?  Believe in Santa Claus still?

I still believe but I'm always disappointed  ...

[Blyleven2011]

20 hours ago, Fatbat said:

If the Pohlads could ever figure out marketing, they could make money at spending money in baseball.  This dude, like Otani, is gold for a franchise. 

I've thought the same thing for many years  now , they have no idea on how to market the team  to fill the seats full   ...

If I was in charge of marketing  I would honor our history  and have a killebrew day , Oliva  , Carew,  blyleven  , Puckett and kaat  day ,,,  

Do it during the dog days of summer  and us old timers would show up and fill the seat to honor our heroes of our youth ...

Could you see a grandson  asking who killebrew was and grandpa  replying to grandson  , Harmon was our most prolific homerun hitter the Twins have ever had , he hit 573 homeruns  in his career , couldn't you just see the grandson eyes get huge and then he's hooked on baseball ...

Let the kids learn our history  of the Twins and senator's  ...

I for one would go to more games  if they promoted our past players and  history  ...

[Fat Calvin]

I was just talking with one of my students--I teach English in Japan.  He's a big baseball fan.  He told me that, contractually, Yamamoto is not cleared by his current team to play in the MLB next season.  I don't know if he's right or not, but he's a smart guy, so I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand. 

[Rosterman]

Being snake-bit twice, doubt the Twins pay much attention to that market, unless it is cheap.

The Twins just can't win when they gamble. ALready they have to make due, now, with not just Buxton, but also Correa...both eating up massive payroll. They can maybe succeed, but I, for one, often ask myself who would be playing just as well in 2023 as theset wo and how the Twins could improve in small economical ways moreso if they weren't burdened with large contracts.

 

Face it, we have to stop thinking (sadly) BIG. And always hope winning teams can be constructed with drafting, trades, development and solid managing.