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If the Twins can make one more massive long-term investment in this team, Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes the most sense of any free agent, reasonably assuming Minnesota won't shatter an MLB record to sign his Japanese compatriot, Shohei Ohtani . Given the lack of investment in any free agent pitching and the status of the T.V. deal, it would be surprising to see the Twins shell out big money, but besides Ohtani, there's nobody better in the free agent market to help the Twins build off their 2023 division title and playoff run.
A Special NPB Performer
Yamamato burst onto the NPB scene for the Orix Buffaloes at 19 years old in 2017 and hasn't looked back. In that season, he posted a 2.35 ERA in 57.1 IP. He then hit a new level in 2021, winning the first of three consecutive Sawamura Awards (the NPB equivalent of the Cy Young Award)- becoming the first player to do so since 1958.
He has been simply dominant to the tune of a 1.82 career ERA- including a 1.16 ERA in 2023. Tim Britton of the Athletic put together a version of ERA+ for Japanese pitchers who came over to MLB- which adjusts their ERA for the NPB run-scoring environment. Using this metric over their final three seasons in NPB, Yamamoto will be the best NPB pitcher to come stateside, edging out Masahiro Tanaka .
Ace-Level Stuff
Yamamoto's success in the NPB makes him an exciting free-agent target, but his stuff makes him an incredibly tantalizing talent. He has a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, a nasty splitter, and a unique and fantastic high-spin curveball- which work together to keep the ball on the ground and strike out plenty of hitters. That is a nasty mix that will allow him to get lefties and righties out.
Yamamoto has only given up 36 home runs in 967 NPB innings. That is an absurd .4 HR/9. Further, in 2023, he posted a solid 9.3 SO/9 and a fantastic 1.5 BB/9. Keeping the ball in the ballpark, minimizing walks, and putting up a solid strikeout rate bodes well for sustainable success. Scouts, unsurprisingly, view him as a potential number-one starter and as a step up from Kodai Senga , who had an exceptional rookie season in 2023.
A Rare Expensive Opportunity
A 25-year-old with ace-level stuff is not often available in free agency, so Yamamoto will demand a lot of money- likely over $200 million, and the team who signs him will have to pay Orix a posting fee over $20 million. But Yamamoto seems highly likely to perform even better than his massive contract because it's unlikely any team will pay what he's worth, given his lack of MLB experience.
The Twins have never paid a starting pitcher long-term, but the chance to bring in a number-one starter at a slightly depressed value hasn't come around. They should pay over the market value because he's far more likely than a typical free agent to outperform his market over the entire term of the contract. The Twins front office should pay for Yamamoto's stuff and upside because he could be as good as any starting pitcher they've had in years.
The Mets are reportedly the favorites to land Yamamoto, so it's unlikely the Twins will land him, but they should attempt to make him an offer he can't refuse- one that accurately values his ace-level upside. With a Yamamoto/Pablo Lopez one-two punch for the immediate future, the sky is the limit for the rotation.
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