Elite Starting Pitchers Up for Grabs; Brewers Liquidating Roster?

[tony&rodney]

58 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why trade a starting pitcher to get one?

I'll let someone else explain why this is possibly a good idea, but I will just weigh in by suggesting that not all starting pitchers are equal.

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'll let someone else explain why this is possibly a good idea, but I will just weigh in by suggesting that not all starting pitchers are equal.

Sure, but then they need another one.... 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Im all in on trading for a solid SP since ownership is not gonna open the $$$$ safe. I think the FO may be gun shy from the Mahle trade so we might be trapped in paralysis of no deal’s getting done until its time to panic. If the brewers want prospects, they probably wont get much from us. I would think our top 6-8 are off limits. Why would they want to trade a pitcher on a team friendly deal? Isn’t that what all teams strive to get? Someone trading for that player is going to over pay. Why would we overpay?  Its more logical that the FO would trade Farmer and Polanco to reduce payroll for cheaper younger pitching with high upside. Slot in Lee at 2nd so we get an extra draft pick in 2025.  We will get an extra in 2024 from Grays QO. If ERod and Jenkins get to MLB just as fast, thats even more extra draft picks. We all want a WS championship. Its not going to happen by trading away the farm but instead building it even bigger and better. There are deals to get done but let other teams over pay. 

They still did the Pablo deal after Mahle. It's Falveys move, he not going away from it now.

[Fatbat]

10 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

They still did the Pablo deal after Mahle. It's Falveys move, he not going away from it now.

True but it was an established veteran that we traded and got a long shot prospect back with Pablo. We didn’t over pay. 

[Jocko87]

55 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

True but it was an established veteran that we traded and got a long shot prospect back with Pablo. We didn’t over pay. 

Mahle wasn't an overpay either but the injury makes it feel like it.  He was also pretty established.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

How did you come to that decision? Walker has been evaluated as the more superior prospect tool-wise to either Lewis or Lee. I have nothing to compare Walker to myself, but am merely parroting the words of various writers like Keith Law and others who go to events and games where prospects play.

Personally, when a guy so young gets so much hype it can be hard to know what to believe. At least we can have watched Lewis and Lee play a couple hundred times via tv and milb.com as well as in a person a few times. Still, Walker has had a bevy of words, like "superstar" flung at him that were never put on either Lewis or Lee. I couldn't make a judgment yet, but I'm leaning towards the evaluations of scouts and well-respected writers at this time. 

1st I like to say that I like Jenkins very much as a player & a person. Personally I think Max Clark is a better all around better prospect that can stick at the premium position of CF & was taken before Jenkins. But this FO & many writers are enamored by power potential thus quick to label Jenkins as a super-star.  Lewis  & Lee are all around better players who can play a premium position, I don't see Jenkins as a true MLB CFer, so he'll end up at cOF where we have an abundance of adequate players. I also mainly prefer Lee because he's a switch hitter & I prefer Lewis not only because of his talents but also because of his fire, feel for the game & leadership which I saw from the beginning.

Another thing I'm afraid of is that the Twins favor a certain mold for their hitters. Players like Lewis, Lee & Martin were able to break away from this mold & found their own way with the ability to adjust. Players like Sano, embraced their philosophy & experienced some success but once the pitchers adjust, they couldn't readjust & floundered. When I look at, Jenkins I see him as a Gallo comp. a very good cOF that has power. For Jenkins to acheive his hitting prowess it depends on how he's coached. I don't have faith that it can happen w/ the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I believe TopGun#22 proposed a trade for Corbin Burns that included another Brewer, I think Gareth Mitchell. The Twins would send Joe Ryan and a couple of other players whose names I cannot remember (maybe Jovani Moran and Josh Winder) to Milwaukee. Perhaps Farmer was also in that deal.

Is that worth a look? I'm not too keen on trading Ryan myself but it seems like a thought.

Garrett Mitchell is a young centerfielder on the Brewers, out with injury for most of 2023. I'm not particularly high on him but lots of people are. He's a legit defensive centerfielder.

I just don't see any scenario where the Twins trade Joe Ryan, really. It hurts their chances for contention both today and tomorrow.

[TwinsDr2021]

I am not trading Lee or Jenkins, The Twins have Larnach, Wallner, Julien, Miranda and while quite a few people think these guys are still young, I don't and don't believe other teams do either. But they are for the most part major league tested. So maybe one of them, Soto and another young prospect could get something done. 

[Sielk]

52 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

1st I like to say that I like Jenkins very much as a player & a person. Personally I think Max Clark is a better all around better prospect that can stick at the premium position of CF & was taken before Jenkins. But this FO & many writers are enamored by power potential thus quick to label Jenkins as a super-star.  Lewis  & Lee are all around better players who can play a premium position, I don't see Jenkins as a true MLB CFer, so he'll end up at cOF where we have an abundance of adequate players. I also mainly prefer Lee because he's a switch hitter & I prefer Lewis not only because of his talents but also because of his fire, feel for the game & leadership which I saw from the beginning.

Another thing I'm afraid of is that the Twins favor a certain mold for their hitters. Players like Lewis, Lee & Martin were able to break away from this mold & found their own way with the ability to adjust. Players like Sano, embraced their philosophy & experienced some success but once the pitchers adjust, they couldn't readjust & floundered. When I look at, Jenkins I see him as a Gallo comp. a very good cOF that has power. For Jenkins to acheive his hitting prowess it depends on how he's coached. I don't have faith that it can happen w/ the Twins.

If Jenkins can stick in center is still to be determined although I think he has more speed than most people think. It's just hard to really shine there when you're constantly compared to a true speedster like Max Clark. But from everything I have heard and read about his defense I would probably rate him and Lee very similarly: if you have a better defensive player at SS/CF, you happily move them to a corner. But if you don't, they can also do an okay job playing up the middle. Anyway, we will be able to evaluate him better in the future.

But I strongly disagree with your evaluation of his offensive game. I don't know how you can look at this kid who consistently gets plus grades not only for his power but also for his hit tool, and who then followed it up with a .362 AVG and a 12.1 K% across two levels, coming directly out of HS, and reach the conclusion that Joey Gallo of all people is an apt comparison??? Because I assure you, Gallo has never even come close to that at any level, not even in seasons where he was legitimately good. The comparison isn't just off, they are completely different types of players, stylistically. 

Not all power is created the same way. And that's exactly why I think Jenkins is the unquestioned top prospect in this system. It's just so incredibly rare to find someone who is a legitimately great contact hitter and also has the power to hit a ton of home runs and XBH.

And someone mentioned it in another thread, but since the Sabato pick in 2020 the Twins have pretty much stayed away from these all power, no hit corner players in the draft. And I don't think they explicitly tried to have their hitting prospects sell out for power either. I'm not sure why you think they would have Jenkins abandon his current balanced approach to get more power out of him than he already has? (Which is plenty, btw.)

So, to sum up, there aren't that many players I would even consider moving Jenkins for. He's going to be special. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

1st I like to say that I like Jenkins very much as a player & a person. Personally I think Max Clark is a better all around better prospect that can stick at the premium position of CF & was taken before Jenkins. But this FO & many writers are enamored by power potential thus quick to label Jenkins as a super-star.  Lewis  & Lee are all around better players who can play a premium position, I don't see Jenkins as a true MLB CFer, so he'll end up at cOF where we have an abundance of adequate players. I also mainly prefer Lee because he's a switch hitter & I prefer Lewis not only because of his talents but also because of his fire, feel for the game & leadership which I saw from the beginning.

Another thing I'm afraid of is that the Twins favor a certain mold for their hitters. Players like Lewis, Lee & Martin were able to break away from this mold & found their own way with the ability to adjust. Players like Sano, embraced their philosophy & experienced some success but once the pitchers adjust, they couldn't readjust & floundered. When I look at, Jenkins I see him as a Gallo comp. a very good cOF that has power. For Jenkins to acheive his hitting prowess it depends on how he's coached. I don't have faith that it can happen w/ the Twins.

That's fair to have that opinion. Thanks for the explanation. I mean we never know how a prospect will actually pan out until they have several years of MLB experience. 

I have known a number of MLB players through the years going back to high school and continuing into adulthood. I do not know any current Twins and have neither met nor know any current professional players other than hello, thus I do not have an opinion on their character, leadership, or intangibles. 

I hope all of these guys have fine careers and it is easy for me to understand that people favor some players over another.

[TopGunn#22]

Yes, I did propose the following trade:

Twins Get:  Corbin Burnes 32.0 value 29 y/o,  and Garrett Mitchell 11.3 value 25 y/o CF of the future (wouldn't need to consider signing Jung-hoo Lee from Korea. 

Brewers Get:  Joe Ryan 39.1 value 28 years old, and either Miranda 5.1 or Polanco 4.5.  Either works.  I'm trading both Polanco and Miranda this winter so whoever Milwaukee wants, they get.

Mike Sixel:  I trade Ryan to sell high on a guy I'm not sure will ever fully figure it out and someday may give up 40 HR's in a season.  Burnes is obviously the far superior pitcher.  He's only valued at a lesser amount because of what his future salary starting in 2025 will be.  Burnes is projected to earn $15.1 million thru arbitration in 2024.  If the Twins acquired him, they would have the opportunity to give him a contract extension and keep him thru his age 35 season.  Seems like a worthwhile gamble. I'm also giving Ryan up with the expectation that I'm either signing a Giolito type pitcher to take Ryan's #4 spot in the rotation or making another trade for an Edward Cabrera type to replace Ryan.  I'm looking to add a co-Ace to the top of our rotation with Lopez and still upgrading the Ryan slot in the rotation.  Burnes & say, Giolito would cost the Twins about $28 million.  If Polanco, Kepler and Theilbar were traded we save almost $24 million.

Brock B:  Peralta is an interesting name and also a very talented pitcher on a very team friendly contract.  But BBTV has his value at 64.0 (largely due to the affordable contract for the next 3 years).  To get him, I'd have to give up a Walker Jenkins or Brooks Lee AND Bailey Ober.  I'm just not willing to even consider that.  And Burnes is perceived as the superior pitcher.

Now for those who think trading Ryan would be akin to Adam taking a bit out of that apple in the Garden of Eden, here is another possible deal.

Twins Get:  Burnes and Garrett Mitchell.  Same two guys, same 43.3 overall value.  

Brewers Get:  Garrett Jax 19.1 value 29 y/o.  Larnach 7.8 value 27 y/o.  Moran 10.1 value 27 y/o.  Miranda 5.1 value 26 y/o. Tanner Schobel SS 3.3 value 22 y/o.  Total Value 45.3.

Someone has to replace some of the value of Ryan, so Jax is the guy.  He's 29 and I'm replacing him with Varland anyway.  Moran is a valuable bullpen piece for the Brewers and I don't like giving him up, but Ryan's 39.1 value is going to take some heavy lifting to replace.  Larnach and Miranda give the Brewers a couple young hitters.  Schobel has the potential to replace Adames once Milwaukee moves on from him.

In this scenario the Twins rotation would be:  Burnes, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock.  It's a pretty solid rotation, but another trade or bargain FA signing would be needed to provide additional depth beyond SWR, Winder, Festa or Raya.  Unless you're comfortable with those guys for depth.  

 

 

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Garrett Mitchell is a young centerfielder on the Brewers, out with injury for most of 2023. I'm not particularly high on him but lots of people are. He's a legit defensive centerfielder.

I just don't see any scenario where the Twins trade Joe Ryan, really. It hurts their chances for contention both today and tomorrow.

Likely that is true. Like i said, I'm not too keen on trading Ryan. I'm more thinking about scenarios where the Twins are able to cobble together the pieces needed to pry Burnes away from Milwaukee. Will the Brewers find any reasonable package of players within the Twins system attractive enough to have a conversation? I get that Burnes, like Gray, would get a QO and this is mol equal to a guy like Charlee Soto. It is likely true that Milwaukee is interested in Ryan but the Twins do not see that as a sound decision. Ober? Same? Is there a combination?

TopGun#22 has replied now and along with other ideas I'm just wondering if there is any potential match and what that would look like between these two teams that includes Burnes to Minnesota? Your ideas?

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Likely that is true. Like i said, I'm not too keen on trading Ryan. I'm more thinking about scenarios where the Twins are able to cobble together the pieces needed to pry Burnes away from Milwaukee. Will the Brewers find any reasonable package of players within the Twins system attractive enough to have a conversation? I get that Burnes, like Gray, would get a QO and this is mol equal to a guy like Charlee Soto. It is likely true that Milwaukee is interested in Ryan but the Twins do not see that as a sound decision. Ober? Same? Is there a combination?

TopGun#22 has replied now and along with other ideas I'm just wondering if there is any potential match and what that would look like between these two teams that includes Burnes to Minnesota? Your ideas?

I think the Twins have plenty of assets to interest the Brewers. They need a third baseman so Jose Miranda and Brooks Lee should be of interest. The Brewers have a really good pitching development system so they're likely interested in guys like David Festa. The Twins need more starting pitching and center field help, which the Brewers have in abundance.

If the Twins and Brewers want to play ball, it's a good match.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think the Twins have plenty of assets to interest the Brewers. They need a third baseman so Jose Miranda and Brooks Lee should be of interest. The Brewers have a really good pitching development system so they're likely interested in guys like David Festa. The Twins need more starting pitching and center field help, which the Brewers have in abundance.

If the Twins and Brewers want to play ball, it's a good match.

Makes sense. I had to laugh at myself because just as many people have players they put on a no trade list, I have two guys too. I'm pretty sure that the Brewers turn away from any Jackson Chourio mention even if Lee and Ryan are both mentioned. I'm holding Jenkins and Festa. Festa just needs to harness his command and improve sequencing to push above Ryan; I like him. The Twins are not going to trade Lee for a guy on an expiring contract but should consider it if there is a return of a controllable player that improves the team now and going forward.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Makes sense. I had to laugh at myself because just as many people have players they put on a no trade list, I have two guys too. I'm pretty sure that the Brewers turn away from any Jackson Chourio mention even if Lee and Ryan are both mentioned. I'm holding Jenkins and Festa. Festa just needs to harness his command and improve sequencing to push above Ryan; I like him. The Twins are not going to trade Lee for a guy on an expiring contract but should consider it if there is a return of a controllable player that improves the team now and going forward.

If the Brewers and Twins align on a deal that sends Lee to Milwaukee, I think it'd have to be in a hefty package for Peralta.

The Brewers are absolutely not trading Jackson Chourio under any circumstances.

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Yes, I did propose the following trade:

Twins Get:  Corbin Burnes 32.0 value 29 y/o,  and Garrett Mitchell 11.3 value 25 y/o CF of the future (wouldn't need to consider signing Jung-hoo Lee from Korea. 

Brewers Get:  Joe Ryan 39.1 value 28 years old, and either Miranda 5.1 or Polanco 4.5.  Either works.  I'm trading both Polanco and Miranda this winter so whoever Milwaukee wants, they get.

Mike Sixel:  I trade Ryan to sell high on a guy I'm not sure will ever fully figure it out and someday may give up 40 HR's in a season.  Burnes is obviously the far superior pitcher.  He's only valued at a lesser amount because of what his future salary starting in 2025 will be.  Burnes is projected to earn $15.1 million thru arbitration in 2024.  If the Twins acquired him, they would have the opportunity to give him a contract extension and keep him thru his age 35 season.  Seems like a worthwhile gamble. I'm also giving Ryan up with the expectation that I'm either signing a Giolito type pitcher to take Ryan's #4 spot in the rotation or making another trade for an Edward Cabrera type to replace Ryan.  I'm looking to add a co-Ace to the top of our rotation with Lopez and still upgrading the Ryan slot in the rotation.  Burnes & say, Giolito would cost the Twins about $28 million.  If Polanco, Kepler and Theilbar were traded we save almost $24 million.

Brock B:  Peralta is an interesting name and also a very talented pitcher on a very team friendly contract.  But BBTV has his value at 64.0 (largely due to the affordable contract for the next 3 years).  To get him, I'd have to give up a Walker Jenkins or Brooks Lee AND Bailey Ober.  I'm just not willing to even consider that.  And Burnes is perceived as the superior pitcher.

Now for those who think trading Ryan would be akin to Adam taking a bit out of that apple in the Garden of Eden, here is another possible deal.

Twins Get:  Burnes and Garrett Mitchell.  Same two guys, same 43.3 overall value.  

Brewers Get:  Garrett Jax 19.1 value 29 y/o.  Larnach 7.8 value 27 y/o.  Moran 10.1 value 27 y/o.  Miranda 5.1 value 26 y/o. Tanner Schobel SS 3.3 value 22 y/o.  Total Value 45.3.

Someone has to replace some of the value of Ryan, so Jax is the guy.  He's 29 and I'm replacing him with Varland anyway.  Moran is a valuable bullpen piece for the Brewers and I don't like giving him up, but Ryan's 39.1 value is going to take some heavy lifting to replace.  Larnach and Miranda give the Brewers a couple young hitters.  Schobel has the potential to replace Adames once Milwaukee moves on from him.

In this scenario the Twins rotation would be:  Burnes, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock.  It's a pretty solid rotation, but another trade or bargain FA signing would be needed to provide additional depth beyond SWR, Winder, Festa or Raya.  Unless you're comfortable with those guys for depth.  

 

 

 

I love the Ryan trade scenario (I also don't think he takes the next step). If they could swing that deal I think they should. The one that includes Jax I don't think is realistic. Just compiling a whole bunch of low value guys to reach the 45 "value" mark isn't a realistic trade formula, in my opinion. I don't think the Brewers aren't trading Burnes for a bunch of 26 and 27 year old AAAA players and a reliever. 

I also like the Giolito or Cabrera type replacement ideas for Ryan. I know many others won't agree because they see Ryan as being better than I do (and apparently you see him more like I do). I'd actually be ok with replacing Ryan with Varland to start the year, too, if it meant they bring in Burnes and lock him up through 2027 with Lopez to front the rotation. Ryan is never going to be as good as Burnes. The reason their values are similar is because of years of control. If you can turn a lesser pitcher with more control into a better pitcher that you can extend you have to do it 100% of the time, I think.

[TopGunn#22]

You and I are on the same page here chpettit19.  I saw a LOT I liked of Joe Ryan especially at the beginning of last season.  However, I just don't see him ever clearing that last hurdle to be a solid #2 SP.  Any scenario that brings the Twins a true "Ace" by league acclimation who is only one year older than Ryan is a big WIN for the Twins.  If it also brings us our CF of the future then it's a HECK of a deal !!.

And yes, the non-Ryan proposal is just throwing odds and ends together to achieve a make believe deal.  I don't think the Brewers would ever make that trade.  But the chance to acquire a young, controllable SP to pair with Peralta next year would certainly tempt them, and very possibly beat any offer the Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets or Phillies could put together.

The reason I think the Twins could do this and still get Garrett Mitchell is that the Brewers are literally overflowing with outfield prospects and Mitchell is the cheapest.  Yet I remember Mitchell being VERY highly thought of just a year ago.  His injury and the emergence of other young OF prospects have pushed him down on the depth chart and unfairly diminished his value.  He would be a steal ! 

 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

You and I are on the same page here chpettit19.  I saw a LOT I liked of Joe Ryan especially at the beginning of last season.  However, I just don't see him ever clearing that last hurdle to be a solid #2 SP.  Any scenario that brings the Twins a true "Ace" by league acclimation who is only one year older than Ryan is a big WIN for the Twins.  If it also brings us our CF of the future then it's a HECK of a deal !!.

And yes, the non-Ryan proposal is just throwing odds and ends together to achieve a make believe deal.  I don't think the Brewers would ever make that trade.  But the chance to acquire a young, controllable SP to pair with Peralta next year would certainly tempt them, and very possibly beat any offer the Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets or Phillies could put together.

The reason I think the Twins could do this and still get Garrett Mitchell is that the Brewers are literally overflowing with outfield prospects and Mitchell is the cheapest.  Yet I remember Mitchell being VERY highly thought of just a year ago.  His injury and the emergence of other young OF prospects have pushed him down on the depth chart and unfairly diminished his value.  He would be a steal ! 

 

I'm a "ceiling" guy, and want all the pro sports team I cheer for to take risks on ceiling instead of staying "safe" with floor. Burnes is ceiling while Ryan is floor to me. The Mitchell piece is intriguing. I see a Kevin Kiermaier type there. Big time speed and defense, but probably best served hitting 9th in your order. And I'm good with that as their CFer until something better comes along (ERod or Jenkins maybe?) and if/when something better comes along you can do a lot worse than that profile as your 4th OFer.

I'll call Falvey now and let him know we've figured out his big move for the offseason and to just get it done 🤝

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I also like the Giolito or Cabrera type replacement ideas for Ryan.

Giolito mat really bounce back and he can be a workhorse for any team, which is why I think his price puts him beyond the Twins. I would love to see the Twins add Giolito though.

Miami is high on Edward Cabrera but also a bit frustrated and he is now out of options to work on his control in the minor leagues. The time might right to offer something for Cabrera. I'm not sure what Miami wants though. Does a Larnach, Winder, and non 40 person prospect like Schobel work to acquire Cabrera? Cabrera could work in rotation or relief.

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but then they need another one.... 

Yeah, they'd need to get one of the free agents to make this work.

But I've been thinking about this too lately. If the Twins want to trade for a top of the rotation arm, but don't want to part with Lee or Jenkins (I'm willing BTW), including Ober or Ryan as pieces may work as an alternate.

[big dog]

I'm more than OK with trading for a very good pitcher, but I would need to see a really good deal before trading for someone with just one year before free agency.

[Cap'n Piranha]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but then they need another one.... 

Right now the Twins need a pitcher who slots right behind Lopez (a true number 2).  If you get Burnes, you have that box checked.  And while you're correct that it opens a hole with your 3rd/4th slot in the rotation, that is a lot easier of a hole to fill than the 2nd slot.

In other words--if 3 out of Ryan/Martin/Festa/Polanco/Kepler/Severino/Camargo et al lands you Burnes and a Joe Ryan replacement, (looking solely at the starting rotation) isn't that better than Joe Ryan on his own?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, they'd need to get one of the free agents to make this work.

But I've been thinking about this too lately. If the Twins want to trade for a top of the rotation arm, but don't want to part with Lee or Jenkins (I'm willing BTW), including Ober or Ryan as pieces may work as an alternate.

I struggle with giving up 3+ years of a number 3/4 type for 1 year of any SP, given how hard it is to find even a number 3.....I get where others disagree. And, as we both say, they'd have to go find another SP then....can they afford Burns and another expensive SP to replace a cheap one? Should they spend their money that way? Why not just use the money you'd spend on Burns and another SP on a FA SP that costs the same and you have under contract for more than 1 year?

[Cap'n Piranha]

On the Walker Jenkins v Brooks Lee debate, perhaps the below will be illuminating;

Player A--18 year old born in February, at rookie/low A: .26 games, .362/.417/.571, 3 HR, 9 BB, 14 K, 6 SB, 16 R, 22 RBI

Player B--18 year old born in August, at rookie/low A: 44 games, .352/.419/.486, 1 HR, 22 BB, 34 K, 13 SB, 30 R, 25 RBI

Player C--18 year old born in October, at rookie/low A: 32 games, .351/.415/.505, 3 HR, 12 BB, 9 K, 1 SB, 18 R, 18 RBI

Player D--18 year old born in December, at rookie/low A: 42 games, .312/.392/.429, 4 HR, 19 BB, 29 K, 14 SB, 28 R, 19 RBI

 

Player A is Jenkins, Player B is Trout, Player C is Soto, and Player D is Acuna.  This is not to say that Jenkins is going to be the equal of any of those players.  It is simply to point out that Jenkins, at a similar age and identical level, performed similarly to 3 of the 5 best hitters in the game.  Jenkins' 100th percentile outcome is inner-ring HOF, 90th percentile is border-line HOF, 80th percentile is multi-time all star, and 70th percentile is 10 year solid starter.

 

Comparatively, Brooks Lee, as a 22 year old born in February, OPSd .808 at AA/AAA, in 125 games, with 16 HR, 56 BB, 91 K, 7 SB, 83 R, and 84 RBI (Trout at 22 put up 10 WAR in MLB, Soto put up 7 WAR in MLB, and Acuna put up 2.4 in a 46 game covid-shortened season, which would be 7.8 WAR in 150 games).  None of this is to say that Brooks Lee won't be a good MLB player, and could be a multi-time all-star himself.  It's just to demonstrate that at least based on ceiling, Jenkins and Lee are in completely different prospect tiers, and if you want the Twins to have a true perennial MVP candidate and one of the 10 best players in baseball, Jenkins could be that guy.  Lee almost assuredly will not be.

[Fatbat]

@Cap'n Piranha I agree completely. Lee has a lower ceiling but can still be a perennial allstar if his bat plays in MLB. He is close to MLB ready and will be needed as soon as aging infielders get traded or injured. He is the best available depth in AAA. He will be cheap talent for several seasons. 
Jenkins is potentially a generational talent that is no where near his ceiling and sell high time frame.  2 players that don’t get traded now for vastly different reasons. No team is going to over pay for them at this time either. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I struggle with giving up 3+ years of a number 3/4 type for 1 year of any SP, given how hard it is to find even a number 3.....I get where others disagree. And, as we both say, they'd have to go find another SP then....can they afford Burns and another expensive SP to replace a cheap one? Should they spend their money that way? Why not just use the money you'd spend on Burns and another SP on a FA SP that costs the same and you have under contract for more than 1 year?

One year of Burns would be a tough sell for me too.

I’d think of this strategy more so for Peralta or one of the Mariners or Marlins pitchers.

Those teams take a bit of a rotation downgrade, but get a noticeable and necessary offensive/prospect-potential upgrade. Seems like a good trade off all around.

[Lefty61]

Gotta think what others will be offering, Red Sox will be aggressive, could offer their young 1B Casas and top 5 prospect.  Twins would need to offer at least  Kirilloff or Wallner and a top arm prospect, SWF, Soto or Festa.  Throw in Miranda, since Brewers need a third baseman too.  Other options for Twins to target would be Sale from Sox or Giants Webb.  I would include 2nd prospect for Webb.  

[cmoss84]

Anyone else having a hard time with a lot of these player values?

[Jocko87]

On 11/10/2023 at 12:06 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

On the Walker Jenkins v Brooks Lee debate, perhaps the below will be illuminating;

Player A--18 year old born in February, at rookie/low A: .26 games, .362/.417/.571, 3 HR, 9 BB, 14 K, 6 SB, 16 R, 22 RBI

Player B--18 year old born in August, at rookie/low A: 44 games, .352/.419/.486, 1 HR, 22 BB, 34 K, 13 SB, 30 R, 25 RBI

Player C--18 year old born in October, at rookie/low A: 32 games, .351/.415/.505, 3 HR, 12 BB, 9 K, 1 SB, 18 R, 18 RBI

Player D--18 year old born in December, at rookie/low A: 42 games, .312/.392/.429, 4 HR, 19 BB, 29 K, 14 SB, 28 R, 19 RBI

 

Player A is Jenkins, Player B is Trout, Player C is Soto, and Player D is Acuna.  This is not to say that Jenkins is going to be the equal of any of those players.  It is simply to point out that Jenkins, at a similar age and identical level, performed similarly to 3 of the 5 best hitters in the game.  Jenkins' 100th percentile outcome is inner-ring HOF, 90th percentile is border-line HOF, 80th percentile is multi-time all star, and 70th percentile is 10 year solid starter.

 

Comparatively, Brooks Lee, as a 22 year old born in February, OPSd .808 at AA/AAA, in 125 games, with 16 HR, 56 BB, 91 K, 7 SB, 83 R, and 84 RBI (Trout at 22 put up 10 WAR in MLB, Soto put up 7 WAR in MLB, and Acuna put up 2.4 in a 46 game covid-shortened season, which would be 7.8 WAR in 150 games).  None of this is to say that Brooks Lee won't be a good MLB player, and could be a multi-time all-star himself.  It's just to demonstrate that at least based on ceiling, Jenkins and Lee are in completely different prospect tiers, and if you want the Twins to have a true perennial MVP candidate and one of the 10 best players in baseball, Jenkins could be that guy.  Lee almost assuredly will not be.

You forgot to mention they play completely different positions.  Otherwise, completely not comparable players in any way.  Using Walker to minimize Lee is irresponsible at best.

I bet I can find 4 18 year olds with similar numbers you've never heard of but every 22yo 1st rounder that made AAA within a year of the draft is familiar.  For example, this took me 7 seconds to find.  He is also a catcher.  I would assume he's the #1 prospect of all time but Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have barely heard of him.  2023 numbers if you want to look him up.

18 year old born in November, at rookie/low A: 35 games, 143 PA .379/.451/.629, 1.080, 6 HR, 9 BB, 19 K, 1 SB, 37 R, 31 RBI, 13 2B

Walker isn't going anywhere in a trade (this year) so it should not be a topic.  This time next year he might be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball (like Brooks Lee).  I'll have to see it first but those guys don't just move.  I agree he has significant potential but we need to be realistic.  Chase Petty-6 year project, Meh. 

Lee going somewhere would be an all time blockbuster level trade.  What they got for Arraez, double it.

If Lee moves it means they are sold on Julien and I can't see that.  The more proper comp is Lee/Julien and its still not close.  The same credit Julien gets for showing something at MLB, Lee gets over Walker for showing at AAA.  In my opinion, its not close between Lee and Julien either.  Lee is a full head taller in value and any value metric you look at will agree. 

Julien is the guy to sell on, he's the closest to his ceiling.  Doesn't mean I don't think he will be a good player, I think he will.  Lee's floor is close to Julien's ceiling, as a better more complete ballplayer.  I've watched both of them in person several times in Wichita and my eye agrees with all the scouts too. 

[Jocko87]

On 11/10/2023 at 9:17 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

If the Brewers and Twins align on a deal that sends Lee to Milwaukee, I think it'd have to be in a hefty package for Peralta.

The Brewers are absolutely not trading Jackson Chourio under any circumstances.

But Chourio helps others to be available which is really what we want.  Wiemers or Mitchell would be fine although I'd take Wiemers on his righthandedness.  I know very little about either but they have significant CF depth.

Peralta doesn't even get a response from me if the question is about Lee.  Lee needs to fetch 5 years of cheap high level starting pitcher plus prospects.  I'm setting the price at inconceivable and daring someone to bite.

I understand we can't have nice things but the underselling of Lee around these parts is very odd.  Top 10 (Fangraphs) global prospects don't move and when they do, they break the bank.