Elite Starting Pitchers Up for Grabs; Brewers Liquidating Roster?

[Oldgoat_MN]

On 11/9/2023 at 10:35 PM, tony&rodney said:

I'll let someone else explain why this is possibly a good idea, but I will just weigh in by suggesting that not all starting pitchers are equal.

I believe Ryan is still getting better. And he's not a free agent until 2028.

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 11/11/2023 at 8:23 PM, Jocko87 said:

You forgot to mention they play completely different positions.  Otherwise, completely not comparable players in any way.  Using Walker to minimize Lee is irresponsible at best.

I bet I can find 4 18 year olds with similar numbers you've never heard of but every 22yo 1st rounder that made AAA within a year of the draft is familiar.  For example, this took me 7 seconds to find.  He is also a catcher.  I would assume he's the #1 prospect of all time but Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have barely heard of him.  2023 numbers if you want to look him up.

18 year old born in November, at rookie/low A: 35 games, 143 PA .379/.451/.629, 1.080, 6 HR, 9 BB, 19 K, 1 SB, 37 R, 31 RBI, 13 2B

Walker isn't going anywhere in a trade (this year) so it should not be a topic.  This time next year he might be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball (like Brooks Lee).  I'll have to see it first but those guys don't just move.  I agree he has significant potential but we need to be realistic.  Chase Petty-6 year project, Meh. 

Lee going somewhere would be an all time blockbuster level trade.  What they got for Arraez, double it.

If Lee moves it means they are sold on Julien and I can't see that.  The more proper comp is Lee/Julien and its still not close.  The same credit Julien gets for showing something at MLB, Lee gets over Walker for showing at AAA.  In my opinion, its not close between Lee and Julien either.  Lee is a full head taller in value and any value metric you look at will agree. 

Julien is the guy to sell on, he's the closest to his ceiling.  Doesn't mean I don't think he will be a good player, I think he will.  Lee's floor is close to Julien's ceiling, as a better more complete ballplayer.  I've watched both of them in person several times in Wichita and my eye agrees with all the scouts too. 

So much off here.  Jenkins plays CF (probably corner OF in MLB), and Lee plays SS (probably 3B in MLB).  While a 3B is more valuable than an OF, you'll notice that I was speaking about hitting, which is what wins awards after all.  Also, in no way did I use Jenkins to minimize Lee (although you calling him Walker throughout your post, but calling the other players you mention by name Lee, Arraez, and Julien suggests you think Walker is Walker Jenkins' last name; seems minimizing to not even know that name of the player you're rendering an opinion on).  I was responding to the assertion in the thread that Lee is more valuable than Jenkins, which I personally disagree with, given Jenkins' much higher ceiling.  You are of course free to disagree, but stating a preference for one prospect over another hardly minimizes the latter.

You bet you can find 4 18 year olds with similar numbers?  If so, why did you include only one (whom you conveniently decided not to name)?  Give me three more.  You also assert that every 22 year old 1st rounder in AAA a year after the draft is familiar; please share what I'm sure is the exhaustive list you compiled of all 22 year old first rounders in AA a year after the draft from the beginning of the draft until now, so we can all assent and agree.  Surely you didn't just throw out a massive oversimplification as if it's gospel.

Just because something is "not going to happen" means we can't talk about?  I suppose the mods should delete every post that opines the Twins should increase payroll or Falvine/Baldelli should be fired?  I would be shocked if Lee is a top 10 global prospect to start 2024.  Top 50 for sure, top 25 possibly, but with baseball's current youth movement, a 22 year old has to do better than a .732 OPS in AAA (which is identical to the team OPS for the 20th ranked team--out of 20--in the IL) to be top 10.

Lee being traded would be a big trade, and certainly might be a blockbuster; it doesn't come close to being all-time.  There are going to be at least 15-20 other prospects who would not be traded straight up for Lee, along with quite a few established MLB players from whom you could say the same (Carroll, Kirby, Gilbert, Rutschman, Garcia, J-Rod, Witt just off the top of my head).

The idea that Jenkins will take 6 years is insane.  Even if we count 2023 as his first year, he could repeat low A, go to high A in 2025, AA in 2026, and AAA in 2027, and make the bigs in 2028 (start of his 6th year).  He would also be 23 years old (the exact same age as Brooks Lee will be in 2024), so it would seem that Brooks Lee is also a "Chase Petty 6 year project," except 3 of those years were in college (because unlike Jenkins, he wasn't good enough to be drafted at the top of the 1st round as an 18 year old--he was drafted in the 35th round).  None of that is to disparage Lee, just to point out that even a bad outcome for Jenkins puts him on Lee's timeline.

I'm not talking about credit for current performance with Jenkins--it's too soon for that.  What I'm talking about is what Jenkins could be, as a guy who performed more or less on a par at the same age and level as a who's who of baseball's best hitters currently.  That has value, even if you don't think it does.

You can argue that Lee has a higher floor than Julien, but to argue Lee's floor is Julien's ceiling is stupefying.  Julien just put up almost 3 WAR in less than 110 games (3.8 WAR/150) as a 24 year old in his first exposure to MLB; that 3.8 mark is better than anything Jorge Polanco has done in his career, outside of 2021 (when he was a 27/28 year old in his prime year).  He also did this while nursing a hamstring injury for the last few weeks.  I wouldn't be surprised if Lee had a better career than Julien when it's all said and done, but I wouldn't be surprised by the reverse either, and if someone offered me something I wanted in a trade, and let me choose whether to send back Jenkins, Lee, or Julien, sending back Lee is an easy choice.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

So much off here.  Jenkins plays CF (probably corner OF in MLB), and Lee plays SS (probably 3B in MLB).  While a 3B is more valuable than an OF, you'll notice that I was speaking about hitting, which is what wins awards after all.  Also, in no way did I use Jenkins to minimize Lee (although you calling him Walker throughout your post, but calling the other players you mention by name Lee, Arraez, and Julien suggests you think Walker is Walker Jenkins' last name; seems minimizing to not even know that name of the player you're rendering an opinion on).  I was responding to the assertion in the thread that Lee is more valuable than Jenkins, which I personally disagree with, given Jenkins' much higher ceiling.  You are of course free to disagree, but stating a preference for one prospect over another hardly minimizes the latter.

You bet you can find 4 18 year olds with similar numbers?  If so, why did you include only one (whom you conveniently decided not to name)?  Give me three more.  You also assert that every 22 year old 1st rounder in AAA a year after the draft is familiar; please share what I'm sure is the exhaustive list you compiled of all 22 year old first rounders in AA a year after the draft from the beginning of the draft until now, so we can all assent and agree.  Surely you didn't just throw out a massive oversimplification as if it's gospel.

Just because something is "not going to happen" means we can't talk about?  I suppose the mods should delete every post that opines the Twins should increase payroll or Falvine/Baldelli should be fired?  I would be shocked if Lee is a top 10 global prospect to start 2024.  Top 50 for sure, top 25 possibly, but with baseball's current youth movement, a 22 year old has to do better than a .732 OPS in AAA (which is identical to the team OPS for the 20th ranked team--out of 20--in the IL) to be top 10.

Lee being traded would be a big trade, and certainly might be a blockbuster; it doesn't come close to being all-time.  There are going to be at least 15-20 other prospects who would not be traded straight up for Lee, along with quite a few established MLB players from whom you could say the same (Carroll, Kirby, Gilbert, Rutschman, Garcia, J-Rod, Witt just off the top of my head).

The idea that Jenkins will take 6 years is insane.  Even if we count 2023 as his first year, he could repeat low A, go to high A in 2025, AA in 2026, and AAA in 2027, and make the bigs in 2028 (start of his 6th year).  He would also be 23 years old (the exact same age as Brooks Lee will be in 2024), so it would seem that Brooks Lee is also a "Chase Petty 6 year project," except 3 of those years were in college (because unlike Jenkins, he wasn't good enough to be drafted at the top of the 1st round as an 18 year old--he was drafted in the 35th round).  None of that is to disparage Lee, just to point out that even a bad outcome for Jenkins puts him on Lee's timeline.

I'm not talking about credit for current performance with Jenkins--it's too soon for that.  What I'm talking about is what Jenkins could be, as a guy who performed more or less on a par at the same age and level as a who's who of baseball's best hitters currently.  That has value, even if you don't think it does.

You can argue that Lee has a higher floor than Julien, but to argue Lee's floor is Julien's ceiling is stupefying.  Julien just put up almost 3 WAR in less than 110 games (3.8 WAR/150) as a 24 year old in his first exposure to MLB; that 3.8 mark is better than anything Jorge Polanco has done in his career, outside of 2021 (when he was a 27/28 year old in his prime year).  He also did this while nursing a hamstring injury for the last few weeks.  I wouldn't be surprised if Lee had a better career than Julien when it's all said and done, but I wouldn't be surprised by the reverse either, and if someone offered me something I wanted in a trade, and let me choose whether to send back Jenkins, Lee, or Julien, sending back Lee is an easy choice.

Everyone will be calling him Walker soon, I’m a trendsetter that way. Now go back and read my post for comprehension.

[Cap'n Piranha]

43 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Everyone will be calling him Walker soon, I’m a trendsetter that way. Now go back and read my post for comprehension.

I assure you I comprehended every word you wrote.  Your decision to resort to childish rejoinders while offering no rebuttal whatsoever to even one of my points (some of which should have been simple, given they were merely asks for clarification on your initial assertions) suggests the lack of comprehension lies with you my friend, not I.

[Trov]

I agree with not going for Burns.  His price will be too high for 1 season.  No way will we resign him because he will be looking for a mega deal, and a team will pay it hoping he can be closer to 2021 than the rest of his career. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I don’t think it’s worth the bickering.  Piranha put together a very tantalizing list of comps for Walker Jenkins to show his immense ceiling, which is definitely higher than Lee’s,  Jocko pointed out that 26 games is an extremely small sample size.  Eager to see how those comps look after Jenkins puts in a full season.

The Twins aren’t trading Jenkins OR Lee.  It just won’t happen.  So I’m not sure it really matters at the end of the day.

In my view, Corbin Burnes isn’t a realistic target.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 11/10/2023 at 12:06 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

On the Walker Jenkins v Brooks Lee debate, perhaps the below will be illuminating;

Player A--18 year old born in February, at rookie/low A: .26 games, .362/.417/.571, 3 HR, 9 BB, 14 K, 6 SB, 16 R, 22 RBI

Player B--18 year old born in August, at rookie/low A: 44 games, .352/.419/.486, 1 HR, 22 BB, 34 K, 13 SB, 30 R, 25 RBI

Player C--18 year old born in October, at rookie/low A: 32 games, .351/.415/.505, 3 HR, 12 BB, 9 K, 1 SB, 18 R, 18 RBI

Player D--18 year old born in December, at rookie/low A: 42 games, .312/.392/.429, 4 HR, 19 BB, 29 K, 14 SB, 28 R, 19 RBI

 

Player A is Jenkins, Player B is Trout, Player C is Soto, and Player D is Acuna.  This is not to say that Jenkins is going to be the equal of any of those players.  It is simply to point out that Jenkins, at a similar age and identical level, performed similarly to 3 of the 5 best hitters in the game.  Jenkins' 100th percentile outcome is inner-ring HOF, 90th percentile is border-line HOF, 80th percentile is multi-time all star, and 70th percentile is 10 year solid starter.

 

Comparatively, Brooks Lee, as a 22 year old born in February, OPSd .808 at AA/AAA, in 125 games, with 16 HR, 56 BB, 91 K, 7 SB, 83 R, and 84 RBI (Trout at 22 put up 10 WAR in MLB, Soto put up 7 WAR in MLB, and Acuna put up 2.4 in a 46 game covid-shortened season, which would be 7.8 WAR in 150 games).  None of this is to say that Brooks Lee won't be a good MLB player, and could be a multi-time all-star himself.  It's just to demonstrate that at least based on ceiling, Jenkins and Lee are in completely different prospect tiers, and if you want the Twins to have a true perennial MVP candidate and one of the 10 best players in baseball, Jenkins could be that guy.  Lee almost assuredly will not be.

I fully agree with you.  I think Lee is at peak value and is a viable trade chip.  Unless the power ticks up significantly which it could he is a .360 OBP .830 ish OPS type player.  That is an above average MLB player at a premium position as a SS or 3rd baseman.  Jenkins has the potential to be elite.   The ceiling is much much higher.  The thing is,  Winokur showed he may have a similar high ceiling.  I am very curious to watch how Jenkins and Winokur perform this year and also watch the A and high A coaches have fun with their new pitchers from last years draft.  Beyond that,  Lee is a very high floor, with a lower ceiling which makes him a rather safe pick if another team has holes to fill.    Will have to wait and see.