Twins Daily 2023 Awards: Best Pitcher

[Cody Christie]

The Twins had two starters and a closer that rank among baseball's best during the 2023 season. Here's how the Twins Daily writers decided who should be named the team's best pitcher. 

 

Minnesota has been striving to build a competitive pitching staff since the current front office regime took the reins. There have been plenty of bumps along the way, but the Twins were able to compile one of baseball's best-starting staffs this season with depth in the rotation and bullpen. 

Below are the results of the voting from 18 writers at Twins Daily. Each writer ranked their top five pitchers, and the results are below. Some writers likely debated who should be the team's top pitcher, but there was a clear winner after tallying the votes. 

5. Bailey Ober
Ober was one of the Twins' most consistent pitchers throughout the 2023 season, and he might have finished higher on this list if he was at Triple-A to start the year. In 26 starts (144 1/3 IP), he posted a 3.43 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a 146-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He upped his changeup usage from 15.6% last season to 28.0% in 2023, and batters OPS against the pitch dropped by 100 points. Ober pitched a career-high in innings and has established himself as a middle-of-the-order rotation option for the foreseeable future.

4. Joe Ryan
Overall, Ryan's sophomore season didn't compare ideally with his rookie campaign. However, his numbers are slightly skewed because he attempted to pitch through a groin injury in the middle of the season. In 15 starts before his injury, he posted a 2.98 ERA and held opponents to a .548 OPS. He set a career-high with 11.0 K/9 by mixing in an improved split-finger and sweeper over 38% of the time. His sweeper generated the highest Whiff % (32.3%) and Put Away % (19.0%). Ryan will be expected to take on an even more critical role in the Twins rotation next season. 

3. Jhoan Duran
First Place Votes: 1
Last season, Duran won the TD Best Pitcher award after a tremendous rookie season. It's never a good sign when a reliever wins the team's best pitcher award because that likely means the team's starters are struggling. In 59 appearances (62 1/3 IP), Duran posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an 84-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Duran pitched in 47 of the team's 87 wins, with the club going 47-12 in games where he appeared this season. He threw the most pitches over 100+ during the 2023 season and leads baseball in pitches over 100+ over the last two seasons. The Twins bullpen would look very different without Duran as the closer. 

2. Pablo Lopez
First Place Votes: 4
Lopez was among the league's best during his first season with the Twins. He finished in the top five among AL pitchers in strikeouts, quality starts, WAR, and innings pitched. His 234 strikeouts were the most by a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana, Lopez's boyhood idol, struck out 235 in 2007. His 10.86 K/9 ratio in 2023 was the highest single-season ratio in Twins history among qualified pitchers. Lopez added a sweeper after joining the Twins and threw it over 20% of the time. Opponents posted a .287 SLG against his sweeper while generating a 36.6 Whiff%. He will likely get some down ballot votes for the AL Cy Young and was critical to the team's success during the current season. 

1. Sonny Gray
First Place Votes: 13
Like Lopez, Gray compiled career-best numbers at the top of the Twins' rotation. In 32 starts, he posted a 2.79 ERA (2nd in the AL) with a 1.15 WHIP and a 183-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His 2.83 FIP, 0.4 HR/9, opponent SLG, and WAR were the top totals among qualified AL starters. Gray finished the season with the lowest ERA by a Twins starter (minimum 20 GS) since Johan Santana in 2006. Gray limited right-handed hitters to a .220 BA, while lefties BA was 13 points higher. He remained relatively healthy during the 2023 season compared to other seasons and compiled his highest inning total since 2015.

Sweepers were the most trendy pitch across baseball in 2023, and Gray changed his pitch usage. During the 2022 season, he used his sweeper 10.3% of the time and increased its usage by over 10% during the current campaign. Opposing batters posted a .094 BA against his sweeper with a .118 SLG. Gerrit Cole is a lock to win the AL Cy Young, but Gray should receive top five votes on many ballots. He's headed to free agency at the perfect time and should be able to cash in on a lucrative long-term deal.  

Do you agree with the way the results of the writer's voting? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Final Voting Points Tally

• Sonny Gray: 85 points
• Pablo Lopez: 75 points
• Jhoan Duran: 45 points
• Joe Ryan: 28 points
• Bailey Ober: 19 points

Recent TD Best Pitcher Winners
2022: Jhoan Duran
2021: Jose Berrios
2020: Kenta Maeda
2019: Taylor Rogers

View full article

[jccracraft]

Nope. Ober was better than Ryan. Even after Ryan came back from the injury.

[Karbo]

It will be interesting to see how free agency goes for Sonny. He's a class act and deserves to get paid! Will the Twins pony up what it takes to keep him? I hope so, but at least we should have Paddock to slide in if not. On paper, it looks like another strong rotation next year.

[Linus]

I think I would put Ober over Ryan. I don’t go for the “but he was injured “ stuff. You take the ball then you get the results. I understand why Sonny is first on the list but if we had game seven I would pick Pablo. 

[arby58]

9 minutes ago, Karbo said:

It will be interesting to see how free agency goes for Sonny. He's a class act and deserves to get paid! Will the Twins pony up what it takes to keep him? I hope so, but at least we should have Paddock to slide in if not. On paper, it looks like another strong rotation next year.

It would be great to have Lopez, Gray, Ryan, and Ober - and then decide whether to make Paddock or Varland the fifth starter and the other a high impact arm out of the bullpen. I suspect Gray is gone and the remaining five will be the starting rotation at the beginning of 2024.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

6 hours ago, Karbo said:

It will be interesting to see how free agency goes for Sonny. He's a class act and deserves to get paid! Will the Twins pony up what it takes to keep him? I hope so, but at least we should have Paddock to slide in if not. On paper, it looks like another strong rotation next year.

Most likely not.  The twins have an incentive not to resign with #1 draft pick coming back if he signs for more than 50-60 million (not sure what that threshold is).  I feel like the margin of error on Gray is razor thin.   This will likely end up being his best year, right up there with 2019 and 2015.  The issue with Gray will be increasing age and inconsistency with performance over his career.  I can be thrilled with the trade and how it turned out.  With all that being said I would be happy if they did resign him.  I just don't see it happening.   

As to this,  Gray was the best performer for the Twins,  but Pablo and Duran are the best pitchers on the team.   I would give the award to Gray.  Heck of a season, and is a master at patience and knowing if you don't give a hitter a grooved pitch that he has an advantage, that sooner or later the hitters will miss or have weak contact.  He is willing to go deeper in counts, walk or have hitters get on base.  However he vary rarely gives up the home run and very rarely gives up the crooked number.  

[Road trip]

Overall this seems about right.  It's close between Gray and Lopez for #1, and a razor thin margin between Ryan and Ober for #4.  I lean towards Ober, but it's close, and probably believe Ryan to have the greater long-term potential.

This is the deepest and likely the strongest Twins pitching staff since the 1960s, even if we may grumble a bit about perceived deficiencies in the bullpen.  Enjoy it while we have it!

[Jeff K]

Ober/Ryan are a toss up and it will be interesting to see who pitches game one against Houston.  Also, if Brock Stewart had not been injured, I suspect he would have been close to making this list.  

[Kevin H]

Sonny is a really good pitcher love to have him on the team. If I had thing I don't like is how many pitches he needs to get through 5 innings, and therefore 5+ innings he is done. Rest is up to the bullpen, sometimes good sometimes awful. Reminds me of Jake Odorizzi in 2019 never able to go 7. 

[Kevin H]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

It will be interesting to see how free agency goes for Sonny. He's a class act and deserves to get paid! Will the Twins pony up what it takes to keep him? I hope so, but at least we should have Paddock to slide in if not. On paper, it looks like another strong rotation next year.

Just hope there isn't TJ #3. Not a lot of pitchers with track record of 2 TJs. Fingers crossed but need a rotation 6 or 7 deep like this year.

[DJL44]

Sonny Gray was phenomenal at limiting HR this season. That's everything in 2023 baseball.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, jccracraft said:

Nope. Ober was better than Ryan. Even after Ryan came back from the injury.

Ober was better than Duran, too. I think people continue to underestimate how much more difficult it is to be a starting pitcher and get outs for 5-6 innings than it is to be a reliever and get outs for 1 inning.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Great choices.  ALL of them!  The order isn't so important, but it's hard to argue that Sonny Gray didn't have quite a year.  What I wonder is, except for Duran, would anyone from last year's list (with last year's season stats/performance) be on this year's list?  I think not. 

[Shaitan]

The closeness of voting highlights why this team is where they are today. Multiple contributors instead of a standalone superstar. Love to see it.

[JD-TWINS]

If we were asked, “who pitched the best, relative to expectations?” …….I would say Ober for sure. Stats shown above & they are rock solid!! 3.43 ERA & 145 K’s in 144 innings is excellent for a “5th starter”. BTW, doesn’t walk many guys either.

We’ve seen Duran & didn’t think it was a fluke.

Sonny Gray is in his 10th year or so & is/was expected to lead our staff.

We traded for Lopez & almost immediately extended him.

Mahle blew up.

Ryan’s year didn’t compare to Ober after getting 13 W’s last year……I think we all expected what we got if not a little bit better - right?

 

[IndianaTwin]

I’d love to have Gray back, but you heard it here first — Gray to the Reds. 

Past history there. From Nashville (and Vanderbilt) and known to be a homebody. Cincy with very little money committed and coming off a season that gave reason to open the pocketbook. 

[Doctor Wu]

Sweepers were the most trendy pitch across baseball in 2023

Seems like that was the case; I keep reading lots of references to sweepers this year. That said, I have to ask: how long has this so-called "sweeper" pitch been around? I think the first time I ever even heard of it was last year. Who was the first pitcher to popularize this pitch? I'm honestly stumped and want to learn more about it, so any background will be appreciated. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Sweepers were the most trendy pitch across baseball in 2023

Seems like that was the case; I keep reading lots of references to sweepers this year. That said, I have to ask: how long has this so-called "sweeper" pitch been around? I think the first time I ever even heard of it was last year. Who was the first pitcher to popularize this pitch? I'm honestly stumped and want to learn more about it, so any background will be appreciated. 

I'd say the "sweeper" has been around for 60 years. It's just a slider that is more horizontal than diagonal.