So you're saying there's a chance (to avoid the wildcard round)

[AlwaysinModeration]

Sorted by losses

Texas 68  Play 6 vs Sea, 3 vs LAA

Seattle 69  Play 6 vs Tex, 3 vs Hous

Astros 69 Play 2 vs KC, 3 vs Sea, 3 vs AZ

Twins 72, 2 vs LAA, 3 vs Oak, 3 vs Col

 

Let’s say…

Sea goes 3-3 vs Tex and

Sea takes 2 of three from Houston.  
That puts

Tex at 71 losses, Sea at 73 losses, and Houston at 71 losses, just after accounting for the games vs each other.

Then, if LAA manages to take 2 of 3 from Tex, then Tex finishes with 73 losses, tied with Seattle. That leaves Houston’s five games against KC and AZ.  If they go 3-2 in those five games, they also finish with 73 losses too.

That means the Twins need to go 7-1 in their games to finish in a four way tie, or run the table to finish a game clear.

It’s possible, anyway.

[Nine of twelve]

19 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Sorted by losses

Texas 68  Play 6 vs Sea, 3 vs LAA

Seattle 69  Play 6 vs Tex, 3 vs Hous

Astros 69 Play 2 vs KC, 3 vs Sea, 3 vs AZ

Twins 72, 2 vs LAA, 3 vs Oak, 3 vs Col

 

Let’s say…

Sea goes 3-3 vs Tex and

Sea takes 2 of three from Houston.  
That puts

Tex at 71 losses, Sea at 73 losses, and Houston at 71 losses, just after accounting for the games vs each other.

Then, if LAA manages to take 2 of 3 from Tex, then Tex finishes with 73 losses, tied with Seattle. That leaves Houston’s five games against KC and AZ.  If they go 3-2 in those five games, they also finish with 73 losses too.

That means the Twins need to go 7-1 in their games to finish in a four way tie, or run the table to finish a game clear.

It’s possible, anyway.

This is almost correct. As of this morning, the best possible scenarios for the Twins are for Houston to finish at 88-74, Texas to finish at either 87-75 or 88-74, and Seattle to finish at either 87-75 or 88-74. Houston would hold the tiebreakers so they would be West division champions, and if the Twins go 6-2 they would get the #2 seed because they hold the tiebreaker with Houston.

It's possible, anyway.

 

[Trov]

Really with the teams the Twins are facing going 7-1 is not out the question, not likely but they are 3 of the worst teams in baseball right now.  I am not counting on us catching the number 2 spot but there is a chance.  Houston has been doing their best to not run away with it at least, and really Seattle and Texas are playing for the final playoff spot in a best of 7 series, with 3 game series as a break between. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

This is almost correct. As of this morning, the best possible scenarios for the Twins are for Houston to finish at 88-74, Texas to finish at either 87-75 or 88-74, and Seattle to finish at either 87-75 or 88-74. Houston would hold the tiebreakers so they would be West division champions, and if the Twins go 6-2 they would get the #2 seed because they hold the tiebreaker with Houston.

It's possible, anyway.

 

I wasn’t playing out the *best* scenario. I was simply laying out what I see as a *plausible* scenario.  
Tex - Sea 3-3 seems expected

Sea > Hou 2-1 could happen

Hou lose 2 of 5 vs KC and AZ possible

Biggest stretch is LAA taking 2 of 3 from Texas, but division rivals playing spoiler, could see it.

Twins going 7-1 is a challenge, especially hungover today…

 

[BH67]

4 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

This is almost correct. As of this morning, the best possible scenarios for the Twins are for Houston to finish at 88-74, Texas to finish at either 87-75 or 88-74, and Seattle to finish at either 87-75 or 88-74. Houston would hold the tiebreakers so they would be West division champions, and if the Twins go 6-2 they would get the #2 seed because they hold the tiebreaker with Houston.

It's possible, anyway.

 

Nine of twelve, you and I have both pointed out the 88-88-87 scenario as the optimal situation. 263 wins among the AL West trio is at this moment the fewest possible, so hoping for the Royals and D-backs to beat Houston and for the Angels to beat Texas provides the most flexibility for the Twins to pull this off. And of course, if the top team after the smoke is cleared is Houston or Texas, the Twins win the tiebreaker against either.

Seattle holds the one-on-one tiebreaker against Houston.

[pierre75275]

All the scenarios are interesting, and it is a long shotz but stranger things have happened.

I think they should get their starting rotation lined up first, for the playoffs.

I don't think they should be running spring training lineups out (like today) until it really is impossible, not just improbable 

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, BH67 said:

Seattle holds the one-on-one tiebreaker against Houston.

This is correct. I erred in my earlier post.

[BH67]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

This is correct. I erred in my earlier post.

I surely don't want to "strain out a gnat" (Biblical phrase) about this possibility happening, especially as the Twins now can top out at 89, but it's sure been fun to consider what if. A team that may pull off something similar to get into the playoffs are the Padres, who've won eight in a row and have great pitching. Their magic number for elimination is 4 after today's Cubs win, but the teams ahead of them seem set on doing their best to give the third wild card spot away. (UPDATE: Case in point -- the Reds blew a nine-run lead Saturday against Pittsburgh.)

As for the Twins' quixotic hopes, a Houston win today against KC would mean that 88 prevails in the West only in a three-way tie, with 89 becoming very likely the target number. And determining that tiebreaker is impossible without a supercomputer as Seattle is +1, Texas .500 and Houston -1 in games against each other so far.

That this conversation is even happening speaks volumes about the Twins' rapid improvement. This October will be fun with a potentially large upside.

[Nine of twelve]

7 hours ago, BH67 said:

Nine of twelve, you and I have both pointed out the 88-88-87 scenario as the optimal situation. 263 wins among the AL West trio is at this moment the fewest possible, so hoping for the Royals and D-backs to beat Houston and for the Angels to beat Texas provides the most flexibility for the Twins to pull this off. And of course, if the top team after the smoke is cleared is Houston or Texas, the Twins win the tiebreaker against either.

Seattle holds the one-on-one tiebreaker against Houston.

 

3 hours ago, BH67 said:

I surely don't want to "strain out a gnat" (Biblical phrase) about this possibility happening, especially as the Twins now can top out at 89, but it's sure been fun to consider what if. A team that may pull off something similar to get into the playoffs are the Padres, who've won eight in a row and have great pitching. Their magic number for elimination is 4 after today's Cubs win, but the teams ahead of them seem set on doing their best to give the third wild card spot away. (UPDATE: Case in point -- the Reds blew a nine-run lead Saturday against Pittsburgh.)

As for the Twins' quixotic hopes, a Houston win today against KC would mean that 88 prevails in the West only in a three-way tie, with 89 becoming very likely the target number. And determining that tiebreaker is impossible without a supercomputer as Seattle is +1, Texas .500 and Houston -1 in games against each other so far.

That this conversation is even happening speaks volumes about the Twins' rapid improvement. This October will be fun with a potentially large upside.

KC 3, Houston 2. 263 is still in play.

[Jocko87]

10 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

 

KC 3, Houston 2. 263 is still in play.

This conversation is rapidly changing. It may be can Houston hang on to the 6 seed if they don't get it together.

[Nine of twelve]

It's too early to know how each and every tiebreaker in the West division will set up but it is possible for there to be a 3-way tie with a tie in the first tiebreaker. In that case the second tiebreaker is intradivision record, and in the case of a 3-way tie I believe Seattle would wind up holding that tiebreaker.

And if you factor in Toronto, well, I didn't try to figure that out.

So what it amounts to is we just have to wait and see how it all transpires. It's reasonable to expect that we will be the #3 seed with our opponent not determined until the last day or two of the season

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 9/23/2023 at 8:57 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

Sorted by losses

Texas 68  Play 6 vs Sea, 3 vs LAA

Seattle 69  Play 6 vs Tex, 3 vs Hous

Astros 69 Play 2 vs KC, 3 vs Sea, 3 vs AZ

Twins 72, 2 vs LAA, 3 vs Oak, 3 vs Col

 

Let’s say…

Sea goes 3-3 vs Tex and

Sea takes 2 of three from Houston.  
That puts

Tex at 71 losses, Sea at 73 losses, and Houston at 71 losses, just after accounting for the games vs each other.

Then, if LAA manages to take 2 of 3 from Tex, then Tex finishes with 73 losses, tied with Seattle. That leaves Houston’s five games against KC and AZ.  If they go 3-2 in those five games, they also finish with 73 losses too.

That means the Twins need to go 7-1 in their games to finish in a four way tie, or run the table to finish a game clear.

It’s possible, anyway.

Update

Texas needs to lose 2 of 3 vs LAA

Seattle needs to win 1 or 2 games vs Hou

Houston needs to lose at least 2 between their series with Sea and AZ

Seattle needs to take 3 of 4 from Texas

Minnesota needs to go 6-0

 

Going 6-0 is a tall order.  And Texas losing 2 of 3 to LAA sounds unlikely.  But hey, Houston just got swept by KC….

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Minnesota needs to go 6-0

The Twins can get the #2 seed by going 5-1 if:

Houston sweeps Seattle.

Seattle wins 3 of 4 over Texas.

Arizona sweeps Houston.

The Angels sweep Texas.

[insagt1]

looks like Texas may be the one to catch. Houston is fading fast but Twins know what its like to be swept by KC this season...despite their overall record.

So far 2 teams have already lost over 100. Two more may join those two.

One team has 100 wins so far. Perhaps 3 more could join that team.

[HokieRif]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

The Twins can get the #2 seed by going 5-1 if:

Houston sweeps Seattle.

Seattle wins 3 of 4 over Texas.

Arizona sweeps Houston.

The Angels sweep Texas.

Assuming this accounts for the Twins 5-2 head-to-head record against Texas, correct?

There's a few ways things could end up, but the key series and unlikeliest one to play-out is the Texas series against LAA.  The Angels, as you said, need to sweep to make this easy.  If Texas wins a single game in that series then I think it means Seattle needs a 4-game sweep against Texas, and the Twins will need to sweep both series to close out the season.

Now, as I'm typing all of that, I'm just stoked we're having this type of conversation in the last week of the season discussing post-season seeding in a year that the Yankees will officially be missing the playoffs.  Cheers to that!

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, HokieRif said:

I'm just stoked we're having this type of conversation in the last week of the season discussing post-season seeding in a year that the Yankees will officially be missing the playoffs.  Cheers to that!

You are correct! I hadn't realized it but the Yankees are indeed eliminated from the postseason. Oh happy day!

[BH67]

6 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

You are correct! I hadn't realized it but the Yankees are indeed eliminated from the postseason. Oh happy day!

The Triple 88 minimum is achieved at last with the Rangers beating the Angels -- but only if the Astros sweep Seattle and are then swept at Arizona, while Texas goes 0-6. More importantly, Texas is already at 88, so the magic number for the 3-seed is now 2. Toronto is three wins from clinching their place.

Here are the head-to-head records in a triple 88: Houston: 14-12, Seattle: 13-13, Texas: 12-14. Good news for the Twins.

The Mariners look to be in freefall, but both Houston and Texas were at some point during the last month. I'm now looking forward to the Twins beating the two that make the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

5 hours ago, BH67 said:

Here are the head-to-head records in a triple 88: Houston: 14-12, Seattle: 13-13, Texas: 12-14. Good news for the Twins.

I suppose one could say this is good news, but I expect that it won't matter. There are 11 games remaining that involve these teams. Each game has to finish the right way for a triple 88. Assuming each game has a 50-50 chance of finishing the right way that means that as of now, the odds of a 5-1 finish giving the Twins a #2 seed are 1 in 2,048.

[RickOShea]

Resting players is not a major concern, IMO, for Twins players.  Rocco has his 'built in system' for giving players ample time off.  The only rest required would be due to injuries, and most likely , a few guys will incur an injury or two,  So, trying to win out and possibly gaining a bye,  is a goal, its not like likely to happen.  The best thing, is for the Twins is to go about their business and and work on playing their best.  They need to worry more about their own play, rather than what Seattle, Texas or Houston can or will do.

[Puckett34]

4 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I suppose one could say this is good news, but I expect that it won't matter. There are 11 games remaining that involve these teams. Each game has to finish the right way for a triple 88. Assuming each game has a 50-50 chance of finishing the right way that means that as of now, the odds of a 5-1 finish giving the Twins a #2 seed are 1 in 2,048.

[Number3]

I hope the weather cooperates when the Twins host either the Astros or Rangers in the wid card round or possibly even the Jays. The first game in that series will be the biggest game they have played in a long time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hadn't looked closely at the standings for a few days but wow, it looks like the Twins will face the Astros. Houston loses the tiebreaker to the Blue Jays (who are currently 1.5 games ahead) so catching them will be difficult.

But the Astros also lost the tiebreaker to the Mariners, who are 1.5 games behind. It's more possible that Seattle catches Houston and knocks them out of the postseason entirely, though that would require the Mariners to actually win some baseball games, which they appear to be allergic to doing right now.

[HokieRif]

5 hours ago, Number3 said:

I hope the weather cooperates when the Twins host either the Astros or Rangers in the wid card round or possibly even the Jays. The first game in that series will be the biggest game they have played in a long time.

i hope it cooperates but for selfish reasons - i like to stay dry.  Booked my trip to MN for next week and have tickets for the series.  Going to be my first time at Target Field and I think I picked one hell of a way to do it :-)

[laloesch]

13 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

i hope it cooperates but for selfish reasons - i like to stay dry.  Booked my trip to MN for next week and have tickets for the series.  Going to be my first time at Target Field and I think I picked on hell of a way to do it :-)

It's a beautiful ballpark.  Enjoy!

[Nine of twelve]

The Twins must win the rest of their games to get the #2 seed. If Seattle and Texas both win tonight the Twins can not get the #2 seed.

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 9/25/2023 at 5:01 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

Update

Texas needs to lose 2 of 3 vs LAA

Seattle needs to win 1 or 2 games vs Hou

Houston needs to lose at least 2 between their series with Sea and AZ

Seattle needs to take 3 of 4 from Texas

Minnesota needs to go 6-0

 

Going 6-0 is a tall order.  And Texas losing 2 of 3 to LAA sounds unlikely.  But hey, Houston just got swept by KC….

Update;

Texas needs to lose today vs LAA

Seattle needs to win exactly 3 of 4 from Texas OR lose today to Houston and sweep Texas

Minnesota needs to go 5-0

Plus Houston needs to lose at least once (today vs Sea or 3 vs AZ)

 

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

 

Erased.

[AlwaysinModeration]

9 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

These scenarios would result in a #2 seed for the Twins but this is also a possibility:

Twins go 5-0.

Texas wins tonight.

Houston wins tonight.

Houston loses at least twice to Arizona.

Seattle sweeps Texas.

Good point - LAA doesn’t have to beat Houston for it still to be possible.  And even if they took 2 of 3 from AZ, that would still result in a four-way 89-73 tie.

[Nine of twelve]

10 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Good point - LAA doesn’t have to beat Houston (I know you meant Texas) for it still to be possible.  And even if they took 2 of 3 from AZ, that would still result in a four-way 89-73 tie.

First, I edited my earlier post. I think it's simpler now.

Second, I edited your post.

A 4-way tie won't work for the Twins. The first tie to be broken is the 3-way tie for the West division championship, and if there is a 3-way tie Seattle holds that tiebreaker. The #2 seed would then go to Seattle because they hold the tiebreaker over the Twins.

[HokieRif]

4 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Good point - LAA doesn’t have to beat Houston for it still to be possible.  And even if they took 2 of 3 from AZ, that would still result in a four-way 89-73 tie.

LAA doesn't play Houston - they have Seattle tonight, and 3 against Arizona.

If I have this right - There are so many things that have to go just right.

• Texas has to lose to LAA tonight
• Seattle has to lose to Houston tonight
• Texas HAS to lose 3 of 4 EXACTLY against Seattle (no more no less)
• Houston needs to lose at least one game against Arizona
• ...and the Twins need to win all remaining games.

This puts the final standings with Houston winning the division (89-73), Texas in 2nd (89-73), and Seattle in 3rd (88-74)

The key here is the head to head records we have.  If Seattle gets to 89 wins its over since they own the better h2h record against us.  If Houston and Texas get to 89-73 along with the Twins, we take the #2 seed.