How Much Will Cleveland's Waiver Additions Impact the AL Central Race?

[Cody Christie]

Cleveland sits in second place in the AL Central with a little over a month left in the season. So, how will their waiver wire additions impact the division race?

Image courtesy of Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

On Thursday, the Cleveland Guardians claimed a trio of pitchers, one starter and two relievers, off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels. Right-handed starter Lucas Giolito will join the top of a starting rotation that includes rookie pitchers Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Cleveland's bullpen has also struggled at times, so adding RHP Reynaldo Lopez and LHP Matt Moore should provide a boost for the stretch run. With fewer than 30 games left, how much can these players impact Cleveland's chances to repeat as AL Central Champions? 

Lucas Giolito, RH SP
Giolito last pitched on Monday for the Angels, so he can jump into the Guardians' rotation over the weekend. He would likely be able to make six starts for Cleveland before the season's end. During the 2023 season, Giolito has posted a 4.45 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 in 153 2/3 innings. His numbers were even worse after being traded to the Angels, as he allowed 25 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings. He is having a disappointing season and is heading to free agency for the first time.  

Potential Value: In his best six-game stretch this season, Giolito accumulated 0.43 WPA while holding batters to a .617 OPS. If he has a great September, he has the potential to provide more than 0.50 WPA. 

Reynaldo Lopez, RH RP
Twins fans will be very familiar with Lopez from his time with the White Sox. He is considered a solid set-up man, and his numbers improved following the trade deadline. Before the trade, he posted a 4.29 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 across 43 appearances with the White Sox. He allowed four earned runs over 13 innings in LA while striking out 19 batters. There is some element of small sample size involved with any reliever, but Cleveland's bullpen has gone through some ups and downs, so he will be a welcomed addition.  

Potential Value: Lopez actually provided a -0.10 WPA with the Angels, even though his overall numbers were strong. In his last two appearances, he took a loss and got a blown save. Twins fans can hope that version of Lopez arrives in Cleveland. 

Matt Moore, LH RP
Matt was a top prospect as a starting pitcher with the Rays but has added years to his career by shifting to a left-handed relief role. In 41 appearances (44 IP), he has posted a 2.66 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. He has reverse splits this season, with righties posting a .545 OPS and lefties combining for a .924 OPS. The Guardians are 21-25 in one-run games and have a 5-12 record this season when tied after seven innings. Moore and Lopez can change that equation for the stretch run. 

Potential Value: Moore had a sub-2.00 ERA in April and May, but his ERA has been over two runs higher since an IL stint in June. Over the last month, he had a slightly below-zero WPA while allowing multiple runs in two of his last four appearances. 

Cleveland traded players away at the deadline despite being in striking distance of the Twins. Now, they prevented Minnesota from making any waiver claims despite being multiple games back in the standings. Cleveland's manager, Terry Francona, is in his final month of a Hall of Fame career. The Guardians may be hoping for some late-season magic to surpass the Twins, but these three players are limited in how much value they can provide in a small sample size. 

The Guardians improved on Thursday, while the Twins couldn't make any additions because of their waiver position. Cleveland can likely cut into Minnesota's division lead over the next month because of this weird waiver quirk. Next week's three-game series between the two AL Central foes will take on even more meaning, with these three waiver claims possibly playing a vital role.

How much will these three players impact the AL Central race? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Blyleven2011]

For two years in a row September will not be kind to the Twins and I can see Cleveland over taking us and  winning the division and I'm okay with this  ....

The only way the Twins will win is to show some moxie an win ten or more games in arow ...

This division title may go all the way to the end  , Cleveland got better and Twins remain the same , a flawed team ... 

It does add some excitement  if Cleveland  and Twins are in a pennant race  ...

FO is responsible  once again  for constructing this team  , yes they  went and traded for good starters , other than Ober  , they really haven't had a pipeline of pitchers ( they finally did something right with the starters but totally ignored  the bullpen  and a quality right-handed  outfielder  bat  ) twice they failed , off-season and deadline ...

Do not cut this front office any slack , it's blunder after blunder   ...

I am so frustrated , thank you for letting me vent  ....

[MTV]

I think we still have the division, Cleveland needs bats and only got pitchers, it hurts our odds but doesn’t enough IMO to push them ahead of us

[tony&rodney]

The Twins only play 3 games versus Cleveland. The remaining 25 games are against other opponents. The Twins have a schedule that should be in their favor, in terms of teams faced with records below or above .500.

I believe that Cleveland can go on a run of 18-10 to close out the season, but I don't see the Twins  below 14-14 in the last month. 

The Twins have the talent. The AL Central crown should be won. Sure would like to see the Twins end up with 87 wins.

[LastOnePicked]

No excuses. It's just time to win every series and shrink the magic number to zero. If they can't clinch with a lead that was as large as 7 games in the last week of August (and in the weakest division in baseball), they have no business being in the playoffs anyways. So, like we've all known since April, we'll just have to wait and see what this odd up-and-down ballclub is made of. 

[old nurse]

28 games left I16 against teams with losing records right now not including 3 against Cleveland.  f the Twins go 14-14 Cleveland would have to go 19-9 to tie the Twins in the standing. 20-8 to pass. There would have to be a collapse by the Twins, Cleveland’ gets a lot of hot batting, or a plane fell out of the sky for them to catch the Twins.

[Einheri]

12 minutes ago, old nurse said:

28 games left I16 against teams with losing records right now not including 3 against Cleveland.  f the Twins go 14-14 Cleveland would have to go 19-9 to tie the Twins in the standing. 20-8 to pass. There would have to be a collapse by the Twins, Cleveland’ gets a lot of hot batting, or a plane fell out of the sky for them to catch the Twins.

All Cleveland needs to do is tie.  Unless the Twins can sweep the last three games against them, Cleveland won the head-to-head this year.

I suspect the Twins will hang on and take the Central.  But, I am a Twins fan, so I also suspect they won't.

[ashbury]

Such bad luck, just barely missing on Matt Moore.  They tried.  If only there had been a way to acquire his services, not just for September and a possible postseason, but all of 2023!

[Nashvilletwin]

First, the Guardians figure out that they really aren’t very good and are likely not going anywhere this year, so they sell at that deadline in order to get better in ‘24 and beyond.

Second, they are down seven games facing the Twins best two starters and their season is about to end. Instead, they win both games, pull to within five, and get new life and some momentum.

Third, they say “what the heck - we essentially have a free run at the division now and it will only cost us a few bucks”. So they put in the waiver claims for what we all know wins games down the stretch (pitching, duh) and now they are in a position to have their cake (selling at the deadline to get better in ‘24 and beyond) and eat it too (compete for the division with some new blood).

Those two losses by the Twins this week were huge. And the Guardians look damn smart in how they’ve handled their roster.

Those three pitchers will most definitely help the Guardians and the Twins better step up their game. It ain’t over by any means.  And if we blow this, there should be hell to pay with the FO and coaching staff.

[TWTwinsFan]

Get ready to be funked,once youre ready,there is nothing to lose 

[Eris]

It is really hard to know. If one of the acquired pitchers gets hot down the stretch it might have a big impact. The deadline trade of Steve Pearce in 2018 barely registered but he got hot in the postseason and earned WS MVP honors. 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The only way the Twins will win is to show some moxie an win ten or more games in arow

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

These guys sure didn't help the Angels much.  Maybe the Guardian coaches can make the right adjustments to squeeze the most out of them.  I think it may be close at the end.  I don't buy the schedule argument after the Twins were swept by KC.

The help for Cleveland is blocking the Twins from getting any of the relievers.

[insagt1]

The recent 2 losses to Cleveland make their last series with them very important, if not only to put to rest that when it counts most Twins can't win the big ones. Don't count on 'an easy schedule' after that. The memory of getting swept by a very poor KC team is still very much alive and well.

I didn't expect to sweep the Guardians and I accepted the 4-2 loss; but the 5-2 loss was totally unacceptable and it exposed ALL the flaws. Only 4 hits; 13 k's; and a complete failure in the bullpen. You won't win a playoff game with games like that. The stakes are high. Twins need a solid September and it really starts with sending Cleveland a message in their final series. I'm not confident in the least that they can get it done, but I remain hopeful, because thats what a fan does!

[Trov]

I do not understand Cleveland, they actively sell at deadline, but then make claims for pitching on waivers. I get we did not make huge separation this month, and if we would have swept Cleveland they may not have made claims.  However, I do not see these claims making the difference for them.  Giolito has been not good.  The pen guys may help hold some wins for them, as that has faltered for them some of late.  I do not see this changing how the season ends up.  

[Peter]

As Dan gladden said not worried about Cleveland as the mirrors are taken off and not looking behind. Too little too late for them. We got paddock coming back/kuechel if needed to go in bullpen as Ryan is back healthy. Also after meltdown last game against Cleveland I fully expect bullpen to comeback with a vengeance along with twins in September and put division to bed after they beat Cleveland next week.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article and good discussion in the comments. It is fun to be leading in the race for the playoffs. This is much better than what we experienced last year. Last year was brutal. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I really don't care if you believe or not ...

I made a statement  , the Twins collapsed last September  and it's possible they do it again  this September  , it's going to the wire and someone is going to win by a nose ....

Twins have to many flaws except for starting pitching  but they could wear down  from the workload  ...

[Blyleven2011]

5 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good article and good discussion in the comments. It is fun to be leading in the race for the playoffs. This is much better than what we experienced last year. Last year was brutal. 

We were leading the division last year going into September   , I hope history doesn't repeat itself !!!

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I really don't care if you believe or not ...

I made a statement  , the Twins collapsed last September  and it's possible they do it again  this September  , it's going to the wire and someone is going to win by a nose ....

Twins have to many flaws except for starting pitching  but they could wear down  from the workload  ...

[jorgenswest]

Good for Cleveland and their fans. Sport is better when teams try to win.

Let’s look forward to meaningful baseball down the stretch. Ultimately it is the game of baseball that is the enjoyment for me. I can enjoy the game whether the Twins are in contention or not and whether it is a win or a loss. This month it will be baseball in the race for the central. What could be better?

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I do not understand Cleveland, they actively sell at deadline, but then make claims for pitching on waivers

3 players were delivered to their front door. Just had to let them in. They are still in contention so why not. 

I don't totally understand what they did at the trade deadline... but my assumption is that they really really liked Manzardo.

They must have figured they would try and fill the Civale spot with Syndergaard and if it didn't work out and it didn't, they still had Bieber, McKenzie and Quantrill that should be back from the disabled list before the season is out. So they must have figured that they could afford the loss of Civale to get a player that they really really like. Even if it's a future pay out.   

Josh Bell and Amed Rosario were not performing that well so I don't know if they fit the definition of selling.  

The waiver claims are easy to understand.

Why Not is the answer. 😉 

 

[joefish]

Can we dislike the Ndians now as much as we dislike those 'godless' White Sox?

[madtowntwin]

This is not a "Static Situation" or comparison....If the Twins are truly able to ADD Buxton to the field and the plate as well as Castro, Kirilloff, Stewart, Paddack, etc. - How much better will Minnesota be?? How would Varland look coming out of the bullpen?? I guess if the team were 5 games down to Cleveland I could see some of the doom, gloom and despair...Those two losses to the Guardians were tough, but I sincerely hope the internal fortitude of the players is greater than some of the Senior Members who post here. In '87 the team really struggled on the road and took every advantage the Metrodome had to offer. Toward that end and during September road games Lobardozzi taped a photo of the dome to the inside of his cap. We are in this thing. We have the lead. It's Scherzer on the mound tonight. It was Morris in 1987. Believe!!?? Win Twins. 

[insagt1]

I sincerely wish Scherzer was on the mound tonite.....for US!😉The internal fortitude of the Twins last 2 games was not very promising. Did they treat those 3 games like playoff games, or just another series. obladi-oblada.

Of course we are in this thing. A 5 game lead in September is a thing of beauty....except if the spectre of another 3 gamer with a team that knows how to beat us when it matters awaits in the weeds and that lead could be 2 games shortly. I hope the Twins take this series more seriously, honestly. We'll see just how badly they want to win this thing and erase the stench of last September. They have the horses for sure. Let's hope they all want to race to win. This isn't 1987 or 1991. Different circumstances, dynamics, manager, pitching staff and hitters. I want to think they may be the healthiest they have been in a long time...that would be a huge plus.

Gotta break out of the two game hitting funk tonite, And it will be a challenge against this soon to be HOF pitcher. And a team fighting a 3 way battle for 1st place. So who will want it more?

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Karbo said:

The help for Cleveland is blocking the Twins from getting any of the relievers.

That should be apparent but nobody is going there. A deeper playoff run could have happened with a strengthened bullpen. You can’t let your competitor get better  Blocking other teams from getting better happened in the days of revokable waivers. This time it cost Cleveland some money

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 9/1/2023 at 10:25 AM, jorgenswest said:

Good for Cleveland and their fans. Sport is better when teams try to win.

Let’s look forward to meaningful baseball down the stretch. Ultimately it is the game of baseball that is the enjoyment for me. I can enjoy the game whether the Twins are in contention or not and whether it is a win or a loss. This month it will be baseball in the race for the central. What could be better?

What could be better/ Twins up by 10 games.