Trade Deadline Strategy Thread (More theory, less names)

[Jocko87]

As we have dozens of discussions of specific players and rumors I thought it would be interesting to discuss in a more war room, game theory manner.  Speculating on names is fun but mostly unproductive. Who had Floro on their bingo card anyway?  As Brock lays out here the market is rapidly changing and keeping up with names is a whole other layer of nerdery on top.  

If you were in the room with Derek and the decision makers (great band name) what would you propose as a strategy? What business case would you stake a professional reputation on? What pivot would you make when a major domino falls?  Without any real idea how various front offices actually value players I’d rather not talk about a bag of balls for Gallo.  We have many threads for that already. 

 

I’ll start for an example. Keep in mind I’d be comfortable presenting this to Falvey and not worried about getting fired. 

My focus for the trade deadline would be stacking the bullpen. Not getting another reliever to help out, stacking it deep with 2-3 solid arms.  I’m comfortable trading any LH corner bat for an appropriate return with Kirilloff being my most valued. My preference is trading from the 40 man but if a AA Kiersey gets a usable reliever back I would do it. Appropriate returns for Miranda, SWR, Polanco and rule 5 considerations are welcome but I’m not selling from the top prospects.

My theory on stacking the bullpen is that we need to lean into our strength and try to pitch our way through.  The model is the Royals of 2015 but with better starting pitchers. The rotation is showing signs of slowing and a stacked bullpen will allow some rest down the stretch and be lights out in the playoffs. I would also consider moving a current starter to the pen as well. Varland is intriguing to me but others may prefer Meada. 

The bats we have in house will have to get it done.  I’m ok with getting a cheap RH corner bat somewhere in the mix but I have very little priority on that issue. I believe at some point in September Buxton will start to work the outfield in preparation for a playoff run.  At some point, If he goes down at least he went down swinging in October instead of June.  That’s the RH outfield bat solution.  

I think this is the best combination of win now, win next year I can present with the information available.  I don’t see a big splash move that does anything as productive as what I’ve laid out here, especially considering relative costs.

What do you think? What would you present to Falvey?  How did Ohtani and the Angels make you pivot?  Keeping ahead of this front office is quite a challenge but it could be fun. 

[Vanimal46]

Good topic!

I would not stake my professional reputation on this year’s team doing damage in the playoffs. We’re not one good bat or arm away, so that eliminates any splash moves like Soto, Goldschmidt, etc. 

I’m seeking talent with ideally 1.5 years or more of control. Open to all varieties of trades… The roster flexibility trades such as moving a LH hitting OF for a catching prospect. The selling trades such as moving one of our pitchers on an expiring contract for prospects. And the minor buying trades like players unlikely to make the 40 man roster for a bullpen arm. 

As I typed that out I think my theme presenting this to the Pohlad family is balance. We have a gluttony of talent at certain positions (cOF, 2B/3B) and sparse at other positions (C, CF). 

[Mike Sixel]

I like the KC plan. I think it's a legit way for this team to win. But I'm not sure the starters are up for it right now..... So vanimal is probably right, they need to balance the OF. 

[Jocko87]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I like the KC plan. I think it's a legit way for this team to win. But I'm not sure the starters are up for it right now..... So vanimal is probably right, they need to balance the OF. 

I think giving the starters a little help down the stretch is almost as important as the lock down aspect. 

[Trov]

I would agree stocking up on the pen would be best way to go.  We need to hope the offense comes around overall, swapping Wallner for Gallo would help the offense but hurt defense some.  We need to hope Buck can get back to his norm and CC stays hot, Lewis and/or Polanco can fill the 3rd base hole.  The rest just stay hot.  If we can get more from what we have, adding 1 or 2 more high leverage arms in the pen would cut the games down to hoping we can lock down any game after the 6th.  I do not see really an upgrade at starting pitching that would be enough of upgrade for what it would cost prospect wise.  

I also would not want to trade any of the top few prospects.  Lee, Lewis(not technically prospect anymore) E-Rod, are all too valuable right now for our future to sell them for this year.  I think barring injuries we should make playoffs, then it is just about hoping our pitching holds and we can get some offense.  If Buck gets hot in playoffs he can carry a team.  

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, Trov said:

I would agree stocking up on the pen would be best way to go.  We need to hope the offense comes around overall, swapping Wallner for Gallo would help the offense but hurt defense some. 

A HUGE amount!

[tony&rodney]

52 minutes ago, Trov said:

I would agree stocking up on the pen would be best way to go.  We need to hope the offense comes around overall, swapping Wallner for Gallo would help the offense but hurt defense some.  We need to hope Buck can get back to his norm and CC stays hot, Lewis and/or Polanco can fill the 3rd base hole.  The rest just stay hot.  If we can get more from what we have, adding 1 or 2 more high leverage arms in the pen would cut the games down to hoping we can lock down any game after the 6th.  I do not see really an upgrade at starting pitching that would be enough of upgrade for what it would cost prospect wise.  

I also would not want to trade any of the top few prospects.  Lee, Lewis(not technically prospect anymore) E-Rod, are all too valuable right now for our future to sell them for this year.  I think barring injuries we should make playoffs, then it is just about hoping our pitching holds and we can get some offense.  If Buck gets hot in playoffs he can carry a team.  

I appreciate that some folks have been Joey Gallo fans for years and are feel threatened by Wallner taking his roster spot, but the awkward Wallner has more foot speed and actually gets to more balls than Gallo in 2023. It's not a foot race that Gallo can join any longer and Wallner actually has the stronger more accurate arm as well. The gawky, awkward nature of Wallner's game along with his inexperience means he is not an average outfielder right now. However, he is adequate. Nevertheless, Wallner needs to hit to hold his spot in the lineup, if Falvey doesn't send him down again. I'm not a fan of strike outs and Wallner needs to improve in that regard. Results still matter . My preference for smooth, athletic baseball players does not distort my understanding of who is performing. Wallner may fail, but he is an improvement at this time.

Polanco returning and playing up to his past performance level is huge as is the expected return of an athletic Royce Lewis. Those are big additions, if they pan out. I'm less confident in some sudden return to competence from Byron Buxton. The swing, approach, and questionable physical health have combined to rob him and us of some glorious baseball. What is his reality right now? It seems questionable at the very least. I still hope for a miraculous rebound from Buck though.

I'm hoping there is a way to steal Hader and/or perhaps someone else for the bullpen. The hangup is cost. This is always the case. I agree that the very top prospects should be protected, but I'm also not missing Steer over Julien, Lee, Lewis, or even the fallen Miranda. This means there are prospects to trade in order to bolster the bullpen. I do not expect much to happen. Lopez for Floro seemed like a good change of place trade that also brings Jorge closer to home, which may bring him some peace and rejuvenate his career. 

[BsuNemo]

If I'm looking to give this team the very very best shot to win the world series this year (not saying this is the right thing to do)... We trade for... 

Bellinger (maybe a package including Larnach, some wishful thinking of Gallo in the deal as well and some minor league guys) and sign him for 3 years. 

Hader - and yes you give up some nice things so you'd HAVE to sign him for another 2 to 3 years. 

Robertson - rental, don't give up too much (maybe Robertson and Raley) 

Playoff roster

AK

Julien

Correa

Polo

Jeffers

Kep

Bellinger 

Wallner

Bux

Starting rotation 

Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Maeda (pick your 3 based on who's hot and match ups) 

Robertson to Duran to Hader (scary) 

On paper this looks like there's some potential. 

[Heiny]

ss- Correa

2b- Polanco

dh- Julien

1b- Kiriloff

3b- Lewis

rf- Larnach

cf- Buxton

lf- Walner

c- Jeffers

bench - Vasquez, Farmer, Castro, trade Kepler + Solano for a rh corner outfielder, dfa Gallo

SP - Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Maeda

RP -  Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart, Pagan, Balazovic, Floro, Keuchle(sp)  

Possibly trade Miranda + Pagan + lower level pitcher for another Rp with multi-years

Possibly trade Maeda or Gray for multi year Rp + good prospect and move Keuchle to Sp

Still have Varland and Winder for spot start or Rp in case of injuries.

And THEN:  after we win the WS with this plan, hire me as the GM and expect great things in the future.

See you at the ballpark, Over and Out.

 

 

[DJL44]

Give up very little and get two above average soon-to-be free agent relief pitchers. Hopefully ones with expensive salaries so they cost almost nothing in talent.

Balance the OF by dumping a LH batter and adding one from the right side.

[Dman]

The bullpen does seem to be the biggest bang for the buck when you look at the way things are going.  Really only two guys you would consider elite in Jax and Duran.  If they get Thielbar and Stewart back that would really help.  That would give them 4 tough arms.  If Stewart isn't coming back this year they definitely need to replace his high leverage arm.

One other things they could do is swap out Sands or Moran for the best kept secret at AAA Kody Funderburk. He has a 13.02 K9 and a 2.89 ERA at AAA with a FIP (2.08) that is even lower.  Even his xFIP is a close match to his ERA so he is what he is and that is the best the reliever the Twins have had at AAA all year sans Brock Stewart.  Worried about his WHIP don't be it is 1.10.  Oh and he is a lefty.  Will his fastball play at the MLB level that is the last question to be answered but if it does he looks far more dependable than Moran without all the unnecessary walks.   Someone would have to go but given Sands has never even had a 13 K9 at AAA and has been blistered at the MLB level I'd say throw him on waivers or try to work out a deal to move him.  Next year Enlow can be the new Sands.  

That still leaves us needing a couple more high leverage pen arms.  Not sure who they would be or where they could get them but if the pen can start holding games this team has a really good chance to take the division and at least win a playoff game.  I like the proposed strategy of loading up on pen arms.

[strumdatjag]

Here is the right approach (I think). 

Reduce the depth of lefty outfielders and starting pitching. And Improve by adding a stud right-handed outfielder.  The Twins roster is loaded with numbers - let’s exchange that for talent without depleting our top minor league prospects. . I know - easier said than done. Are we really going to dump a guy like Gallo (and/or Kepler or Larnach )  and one of our starters for a stud right-handed outfielder?  That’s a tough task for the FO but that would be my goal if I was part of it. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

This team is probably not going to make any noise in the playoffs, so make a couple trades to reload for next year without completely ruining our chances to win the division this year.  Trade one of the starting pitchers that are going to be free agents and one of the lH corner outfielders For a controllable RH outfielder that hits left handed pitching and a reliable reliever. DFA Gallo if no one wants him and bring up Keuchel to finnish out the year.

[Nine of twelve]

First comment: Some people apparently didn't heed the title of the thread: More theory, less names.

Second comment: Concur with many others that another right-handed hitting outfielder would be a good addition with the corollary that we can easily get by with one less left-handed hitting outfielder.

Third comment: Concur with many others that improving the bullpen would be helpful and eminently feasible. I expect that one of the pitchers added to the bullpen will be one of our current starters, with Keuchel inserted into the rotation. His performance in AAA has been good enough that the FO will decide it is worth it to give him a shot. Moreover, he's inexpensive, both in terms of his contract and in terms of not having to give up a player in trade.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Third comment: Concur with many others that improving the bullpen would be helpful and eminently feasible. I expect that one of the pitchers added to the bullpen will be one of our current starters, with Keuchel inserted into the rotation. His performance in AAA has been good enough that the FO will decide it is worth it to give him a shot. Moreover, he's inexpensive, both in terms of his contract and in terms of not having to give up a player in trade.

The more I think about it I think that at least one current starter and maybe two should factor into the new bullpen.  Presented as the best chance to make a playoff run I think buy in would be there too.  Its somewhat similar to Polanco at 3B, it almost feels like a video game/message board kind of move but actually makes a ton of sense.   Low cost too.

[KirbyHawk75]

I am probably in minority, but we gave up way to many prospects last year.  

I don't see any playoff success this year.  Just play the young kids AK, Julian, Lewis, Wallner,  etc.  

I would be ok with trading Larnach for a reliable reliever, but no prospects!  

[Jocko87]

It seems the Mets have officially opened their store. I don't see much I like there but they should be busy with some expensive pieces. Helps our market it would seem. Maybe we can snag relievers while everyone is distracted by Verlander.

[Doctor Wu]

On 7/29/2023 at 12:20 AM, Jocko87 said:

I think giving the starters a little help down the stretch is almost as important as the lock down aspect. 

I think having Keuchel ready and waiting in AAA is the current plan to give the starters some added rest. Based on recent performance, they need a lot more rest or some sort of extra something. 

[Doctor Wu]

14 hours ago, KirbyHawk75 said:

I am probably in minority, but we gave up way to many prospects last year.  

I don't see any playoff success this year.  Just play the young kids AK, Julian, Lewis, Wallner,  etc.  

I would be ok with trading Larnach for a reliable reliever, but no prospects!  

In retrospect, we DID give up too many prospects last year, some of whom have gone on to produce well for other teams this year. But at the time, I thought all of those deals were fine. But this year? I'm with you? I don't want to give up any more valuable prospects. Sure, an extra bat like Larnach is expendable, but I don't think we'll get much for him. 

[SoDakTwinsFan]

The strategy should be all about 2024.  If we make the playoffs because we are the best of the worst, great.  But absolutely no rental players because we aren’t winning the WS this year.  The bullseye should be on 2024.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

The strategy should be all about 2024.  If we make the playoffs because we are the best of the worst, great.  But absolutely no rental players because we aren’t winning the WS this year.  The bullseye should be on 2024.

I don't think I mind rentals but they should be the cheaper variety. Focus on 24 by not selling anyone important to 24. I would prefer to sell the veteran LH OF guys and roll with the youngins at this point. It's becoming obvious that lots of pitching is needed and I wouldn't want to spend on starters.

[twinfan]

Here's one. What if we traded Buxton? He can't play CF and gets hurt every year but is still regarded as a top talent. Couldn't we get 1 or 2 top players for him? Or a top player and a top pitcher? I don't believe we should trade Kiriloff. I also do not believe that we aren't going anywhere if we make the playoffs. We have the pitching to keep us in games. We don't have the so-called stud starter but we have good starters and a decent defense and that can win a series. But we have to win the division first and hopefully the weaker schedule will help- if we can take KC today. Losing to them has been tough these past 2 days.

[jorgenswest]

There is value in winning the central so I am not selling. The team as is can compete for the central. I am also not buying. They need too many pieces.

I would make parallel moves. Trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda but get a similarly aged/years of control return that is a better fit positionally. Lopez for Floro was a parallel move. Lopez had that extra year of control but I am not sure they would have taken him to arbitration. There are a few veterans they might move without really selling. Gallo and Pagán are in this group. 

My strategy is to do little and compete for the central with the players on the roster.

 

 

[Linus]

I would dust off the Time Machine and go back to the last several off seasons and acquire a good right handed hitting outfielder and 3 bullpen arms so I wouldn’t have to pay exorbitant trade deadline prices. 

[lecroy24fan]

8 hours ago, twinfan said:

Here's one. What if we traded Buxton? 

Full no trade clause.

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

There is value in winning the central so I am not selling. The team as is can compete for the central. I am also not buying. They need too many pieces.

I would make parallel moves. Trade Larnach or Wallner or Miranda but get a similarly aged/years of control return that is a better fit positionally. Lopez for Floro was a parallel move. Lopez had that extra year of control but I am not sure they would have taken him to arbitration. There are a few veterans they might move without really selling. Gallo and Pagán are in this group. 

My strategy is to do little and compete for the central with the players on the roster.

 

 

I think I'm shifting in this direction.  If they can free up the LH logjam and get a reliever I'd probably be ok with it as an outcome.

With the Cubs now holding Belli and looking for relievers too that market is going to get expensive quickly. 

[SoDakTwinsFan]

11 hours ago, twinfan said:

Here's one. What if we traded Buxton? He can't play CF and gets hurt every year but is still regarded as a top talent. Couldn't we get 1 or 2 top players for him? Or a top player and a top pitcher? I don't believe we should trade Kiriloff. I also do not believe that we aren't going anywhere if we make the playoffs. We have the pitching to keep us in games. We don't have the so-called stud starter but we have good starters and a decent defense and that can win a series. But we have to win the division first and hopefully the weaker schedule will help- if we can take KC today. Losing to them has been tough these past 2 days.

A.  No trade clause.

2.  Who would want him?

D.  His value is Mariana Trench low.

 

[Jocko87]

On 7/28/2023 at 2:59 PM, tony&rodney said:

 there is a way to steal Hader and/or perhaps someone else for the bullpen. The hangup is cost. This is always the case. I agree that the very top prospects should be protected, but I'm also not missing Steer over Julien, Lee, Lewis, or even the fallen Miranda. This means there are prospects to trade in order to bolster the bullpen. I do not expect much to happen. Lopez for Floro seemed like a good change of place trade that also brings Jorge closer to home, which may bring him some peace and rejuvenate his career. 

Winner by default. A few others got close but do nothing unless blown away wasn't on any bingo cards that I saw.

Had someone presented to me as the GM the case made by@Seth Stohse here I'd have to say it would have been very compelling. The rest of the division is selling and it won't matter if they don't perform. Not mentioned are the roster moves coming for Kuechel, Gordon and maybe Paddock which will makes things look a lot different as well.

OH well, onward. I get it. Boring, but I get it.