Why Emilio Pagan Remains a Crucial Asset in the Minnesota Twins Bullpen

[Linus]

Click bait. 

[Kummel]

5 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

@AaronGleeman

 

Emilio Pagán is the only MLB reliever with an ERA+ below 100 and negative Win Probability Added every season since 2020.

2020: 94 ERA+, -1.0 WPA

2021: 81 ERA+, -0.6 WPA

2022: 89 ERA+, -1.0 WPA

2023: 79 ERA+, -0.3 WPA His combined -2.9 WPA since 2020 is dead last for relievers.

Gleeman didn't offer an "emotional" response to Pagan, but rather telling stats.  At the very least, the story in this data explains why fans are leary.   This doesn't look like the profile of a reliever whose struggles are limited to a "disastrous first few months."  

[D.C Twins]

Will Pagan ever be a key bullpen option or a true contender? No, no he will not.

Does the use if him in important game situations reflect poorly on the Twins hope of being a contender? Yes, yes it does.

[Hunter McCall]

6 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Low leverage, inning eater - he is doing great this year. Any game that is tight - horrible. Just don't put him in any tight games unless everyone else is used up. Trouble is their are times you have to put your last guy in if the others have been used.

Twins down in a close game against the Tigers this week, Pagan comes in due to a taxed bullpen, shoves for 2 innings....... no respect. Gives up a home run against the Braves, Twins Twitter explodes. See where I'm coming from? I get that he hasn't been good in high leverage situations, but why can't we accept that he has embraced his role and done it well?

[Hunter McCall]

6 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

I agree that the emotional aspect is overblown, but I can’t agree that he is “valuable” in a role that—for the most part—only sees him enter in games the team is already losing. That’s a human white flag. Only five times this year has the team brought him in when the score was tied or when the team was up by two or fewer runs. That’s a lot of mop-up duty just about any half-decent reliever could do. 

What about a bullpen day when he's asked to throw two innings and doesn't give up a hit, run, or walk in a 2-0 shut out win? Is that a human white flag?

[Hunter McCall]

4 hours ago, OvertheHill said:

That's called cherry picking stats. That's like picking selected Joey Gallo games and saying that when he's on, he's actually one of the better hitters in baseball. 

Not. Buying. It.

If you read the article, I mentioned that he has been either really good or really bad. This little blip is in regards to the fact that if you were to factor out his three putrid performances he's been really good. I made it clear that I'm not explaining away the bad. Thanks for your input, but I can't help but feel you may have "cherry picked" my article for content to criticize.

[Hunter McCall]

4 hours ago, Brett said:

Assuming we don’t run away with the division, would you want him in the bullpen in September when *every* game is important? His results remind me of Ron Davis, so you can guess my vote.

No, that's why I explicitly talked about how important he is as a low-leverage reliever. In the post-season, your best relievers are always available. That's not the way it works in a 162 game season. He's done a very good job filling his role this year.

[DocBauer]

EVERY SINGLE RELIEVER in ALL of MLB will have bad days and give up runs and losses. It's just a fact. And I never hate on a Twins reliever that has a bad game.

But no matter how you want to spin Pagan being solid, OK, here and there, at a certain point numbers just don't lie, even if you try to skew them.

There is a myth about low leverage vs high leverage. At some point, even the last man in the bullpen will be asked to perform in an important situation. And they may, or may not, perform in that role. And while Pagan has, indeed, thrown OK here and there, 5yrs of having the absolute worst WPA ad a RP simply indicates that some good performances greatly outweigh the bad ones more than virtually anyone else over the same timeline. 

The Twins have seldom needed a long man this season as the rotation has been amongst the best in MLB. And yet, they've still churned through various arms in that role here and there. While I didn't want Pagan back, and thought it was a huge mistake, I argue that since he does have a rubber arm, he should be the 8th man in the pen for 2-3 innings as needed. Building up the best other 7 spots made the most sense.

His only saving grace right now has been injuries to just about anyone else who could get a shot to displace him. 

Being able to perform well 75% of the time...and I'm just making up a number here...but completely stinking the other 25% of the time doesn't make you good, or reliable.

We just lost DeLeon, and maybe Stewart now. Alcala and Winder, Henriquez, and Sands have battled injury and Balazovic is fresh and inexperienced. So Pagan gets new life.

That's the ONLY reason he should still have a job.

[Noah Brenden]

Click bait. Just kidding, I agree he’s been a serviceable average mediocre unexceptional so-so passable reliever. Doesn’t mean we have to like it. 

[jkcarew]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

No, that's why I explicitly talked about how important he is as a low-leverage reliever.

But low-leverage literally means “NOT very important”.

And it’s not like he’s an innings-eater. Infrequent that he even goes 2 innings. The only important factors are that he’s on the 40-man and doesn’t have options.

Look, every bullpen has a bottom, and the guys that find themselves there, are always easy game for the negative fodder when they get over-exposed. I think it’s fair to say Pagan is not THE problem with the club.

But he’s not very ‘important’, either.

 

[OvertheHill]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

If you read the article, I mentioned that he has been either really good or really bad. This little blip is in regards to the fact that if you were to factor out his three putrid performances he's been really good. I made it clear that I'm not explaining away the bad. Thanks for your input, but I can't help but feel you may have "cherry picked" my article for content to criticize.

Fair point. I did read the article, and appreciate the attempt to provide numbers to push back on the narrative. But Pagan has demonstrated over and over that he can’t be trusted, and I don’t think there’s going to be enough opportunities to prove otherwise. To me its different than when Jax earned trust last year, had a bad patch this year, and seems to have recovered. There’s nothing in Pagans resume gives me hope. He’s on borrowed time IMO. 

[Doctor Wu]

Well, at least he hasn't been on the IL yet this year! Hey, Pagan is what he is. Not someone you are going to use as a closer, and someone you definitely should not use in a high-leverage situation. He's serviceable, and that's about it. Right now, he's another body in the bullpen and we still have a need for him. 

[Riverbrian]

16 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

I agree that the emotional aspect is overblown, but I can’t agree that he is “valuable” in a role that—for the most part—only sees him enter in games the team is already losing. That’s a human white flag. Only five times this year has the team brought him in when the score was tied or when the team was up by two or fewer runs. That’s a lot of mop-up duty just about any half-decent reliever could do. 

In my opinion... We haven't had much mop up duty this year.

If the team is down by a run. That isn't mop up duty. Down by two isn't mop up duty either. Those should be ball games yet to be decided. 

 

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

I think it goes back to one of the things Tom Kelly is known for saying: put your players in situations where they can succeed. In Pagan's case, it's lower leverage situations. Avoid late and close. He usually does OK as the earliest reliever. Try to limit him to that. We can quibble about verbiage, but while this role isn't necessarily an important one, it's still necessary to have a pitcher who can succeed in that role so that the high leverage guys can be available when needed.

I think about LaTroy Hawkins. The Twins knew he could be a good major league pitcher, and they first tried to use him as a starter. That didn't work. Then they tried him as a closer. That didn't work. Then they tried him in other roles in the bullpen. He succeeded. When he went to the Cubs after leaving the Twins they tried him as a closer. Again, that didn't work. But once he was put in situations where he could succeed he wound up having a really good career.

I'm not saying Pagan can be the next LaTroy Hawkins. But with the pitches that he has he should be able to fill a role in a major league bullpen if he is used properly.

[Riverbrian]

15 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

With Stewart on the IL, Pagan better step it up.

Exactamundo. This is a pretty important point. 

I'll let everyone else discuss low leverage.

Meanwhile, Pagan just moved up the ladder and with another injury he will move up the ladder again. 

There is no hiding... If a manager has to hide someone there will come a time.  

[USAFChief]

30 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

In my opinion... We haven't had much mop up duty this year.

If the team is down by a run. That isn't mop up duty. Down by two isn't mop up duty either. Those should be ball games yet to be decided. 

 

 

 

People keep pretending there's such a thing as a "low leverage" reliever. 

There isn't. 

But even if there was, why would you want any?

"Pagan is valuable in his role" misses the point by miles. The "role" this author is trying to assign to Pagan doesn't exist. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

I think it goes back to one of the things Tom Kelly is known for saying: put your players in situations where they can succeed. In Pagan's case, it's lower leverage situations. Avoid late and close. He usually does OK as the earliest reliever. Try to limit him to that. We can quibble about verbiage, but while this role isn't necessarily an important one, it's still necessary to have a pitcher who can succeed in that role so that the high leverage guys can be available when needed.

I think about LaTroy Hawkins. The Twins knew he could be a good major league pitcher, and they first tried to use him as a starter. That didn't work. Then they tried him as a closer. That didn't work. Then they tried him in other roles in the bullpen. He succeeded. When he went to the Cubs after leaving the Twins they tried him as a closer. Again, that didn't work. But once he was put in situations where he could succeed he wound up having a really good career.

I'm not saying Pagan can be the next LaTroy Hawkins. But with the pitches that he has he should be able to fill a role in a major league bullpen if he is used properly.

OK... in order to put Pagan in position to succeed.

Does he remain in this low leverage role when Ortega is called up to replace the injured Stewart? 

Does Ortega then get the tougher assignments in order to keep Pagan in low leverage roles to keep him in position to succeed? 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

19 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

I agree that the emotional aspect is overblown, but I can’t agree that he is “valuable” in a role that—for the most part—only sees him enter in games the team is already losing. That’s a human white flag. Only five times this year has the team brought him in when the score was tied or when the team was up by two or fewer runs. That’s a lot of mop-up duty just about any half-decent reliever could do. 

Perfectly stated. The damage was already done emotionally for fans. Call it the Alex Colomé effect. 

I also don’t understand what’s so valuable about Pagan in his role. If anything, it’s blocking younger prospects from getting those reps and potentially moving to a higher leverage role. We know what Pagan’s ceiling is. 

[Matt Braun]

13 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

What about a bullpen day when he's asked to throw two innings and doesn't give up a hit, run, or walk in a 2-0 shut out win? Is that a human white flag?

That was 1 (one) outing. I do believe that every reliever in baseball has an outing like that you could point to; Pagán isn’t unique in that regards. 

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

People keep pretending there's such a thing as a "low leverage" reliever. 

I believe the technical term for "low leverage reliever" is "bad reliever."  

[Minny505]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Pagan hasn't been bad overall this year, but he's established he won't be good when he's truly needed. It's time to move on. He's one of a handful of guys it's time to move on from. And it's undoubtedly late enough in the season to start moving on. Time for the FO to start making moves. Trades aren't super likely right now, but internal promotions are absolutely possible. Time to raise the ceiling on this season.

The issue is: Who do they move onto?

They already have Winder, Balazovic, Headrick, and Ortega, in the bullpen. Is there even anyone left on the 40 that they can call up to fill his spot? 

He's the best out of a lot of bad options right now. Until the more reliable RPs get off the IL, it's best to hold onto him.

[Minny505]

53 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Perfectly stated. The damage was already done emotionally for fans. Call it the Alex Colomé effect. 

I also don’t understand what’s so valuable about Pagan in his role. If anything, it’s blocking younger prospects from getting those reps and potentially moving to a higher leverage role. We know what Pagan’s ceiling is. 

Take a look at AAA. What prospects is he blocking?

Enlow? Henriquez? Both have been brutal. 

Not a Pagan defender here. I would have never signed him. But right now, the Twins are better with him than some slappy.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

The issue is: Who do they move onto?

They already have Winder, Balazovic, Headrick, and Ortega, in the bullpen. Is there even anyone left on the 40 that they can call up to fill his spot? 

He's the best out of a lot of bad options right now. Until the more reliable RPs get off the IL, it's best to hold onto him.

I certainly understand that thought process, but I'd move on to guys not on the 40-man. We know his ceiling, and it's not good enough. Let's give someone else a chance to see if they can have a higher ceiling.

If you're going to go with the theory that bullpen arms can be found year to year by churning through them and finding the guy who has it that year (it's how they found Stewart) then you have to be willing to churn through them. He's churn worthy to me.

[Minny505]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I certainly understand that thought process, but I'd move on to guys not on the 40-man. We know his ceiling, and it's not good enough. Let's give someone else a chance to see if they can have a higher ceiling.

If you're going to go with the theory that bullpen arms can be found year to year by churning through them and finding the guy who has it that year (it's how they found Stewart) then you have to be willing to churn through them. He's churn worthy to me.

If someone hits the waiver wire that is intriguing to them, Pagan is worth cutting. Gotta have that opportunity present itself first, a la Brock Stewart.

[Sparky55]

He can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with the best of them. He does best against the bottom of poor teams lineups.

[LeatherAntenna]

16 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

He's been the worst reliever in baseball for 4 years.  His ERA this year when entering with the lead is still hovering around 15 I believe.  His HR rate is the worst in the history of baseball.  It's not possible to "hide" him (or any pitcher) in the bullpen, especially this bullpen - he's going to have to pitch in higher leverage situations at some point.  The minor leagues are littered with guys who can eat innings when the team is down 5 runs, at a much cheaper cost.  

This isn't complicated.

 

20 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

@AaronGleeman

 

Emilio Pagán is the only MLB reliever with an ERA+ below 100 and negative Win Probability Added every season since 2020.

2020: 94 ERA+, -1.0 WPA

2021: 81 ERA+, -0.6 WPA

2022: 89 ERA+, -1.0 WPA

2023: 79 ERA+, -0.3 WPA His combined -2.9 WPA since 2020 is dead last for relievers.

 

His results prove he is worse than being 'just a guy'.  We would be a better team with literally any other relief pitcher in his place.

Is there an advanced stat where by it is measured in how few of pitches a pitcher during the same half inning gives up 2+ runs?  I’m relatively certain he’d excel under this metric, if it is kept.  Seems with him, just a handful of pitches and the next pitch leaves the yard.  Other relievers who blow up a game, it’s drip, drip, but Pagan, it’s why waste the time throwing any extra pitches?

[Vanimal46]

16 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Take a look at AAA. What prospects is he blocking?

Enlow? Henriquez? Both have been brutal. 

Not a Pagan defender here. I would have never signed him. But right now, the Twins are better with him than some slappy.

Yeah there is not an obvious call up to make I’ll give you that. I put that issue squarely on Falvey. He did not add to the pen over the winter, and the assumption is he thought there was enough talent in the minors to cobble a good bullpen together. 

As @chpettit19said, let’s start looking at talent not on the 40 man roster. They made a pretty quick decision to add Brock Stewart this year after 7 AAA games when his stats in recent years suggested he’s not worth the look. 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

If someone hits the waiver wire that is intriguing to them, Pagan is worth cutting. Gotta have that opportunity present itself first, a la Brock Stewart.

I don't know enough about the system, but I'd be looking internally just as much, and not waiting on just the waiver wire. I think the biggest disconnect with many fans and the FO is that we define "intriguing" differently than them. My level for what it'd take to be intrigued enough to replace him is very clearly lower than the FO's level.

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know enough about the system, but I'd be looking internally just as much, and not waiting on just the waiver wire. I think the biggest disconnect with many fans and the FO is that we define "intriguing" differently than them. My level for what it'd take to be intrigued enough to replace him is very clearly lower than the FO's level.

Nothing wrong with starting to sift through the upcoming Rule 5 eligible prospects… Lawyerson, Funderburk, Schulfer, etc. I wouldn’t be opposed to adding Enlow back to the 40 and giving him a shot in the pen. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Nothing wrong with starting to sift through the upcoming Rule 5 eligible prospects… Lawyerson, Funderburk, Schulfer, etc. I wouldn’t be opposed to adding Enlow back to the 40 and giving him a shot in the pen. 

Enlow is the one that comes to mind to me, but I'd be good with letting him settle in at AAA a few more starts and trying one of the other guys first. I'm just ready to take chances on a higher ceiling. This thread is about Pagan, but I'm even talking the team in general. It feels like we've hit the ceiling. For multiple years now. It's time to try some options who's ceiling's we aren't 100% positive on yet.