Now Is Not the Time for a Six-Man Rotation

[Cody Christie]

Kenta Maeda's 30-day rehab window is closing, and the Twins have a few options to add him back to the rotation. Switching to a six-man rotation is possible, but it's unclear if that would be the team's best course of action.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins expect Kenta Maeda to rejoin the club this week after missing nearly two months with a right triceps strain. He is in his age-35 season while also in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Maeda is among a group of veteran players without ties to the Twins beyond this season. The team plans to continue to use him as a starter, but they may cut ties with him if his performance dictates an alternate direction. 

Maeda's rehab appearances at Triple-A have been a mixed bag. In his first starts, he pitched two scoreless innings while striking out four and walking one. He tossed three innings in his next appearance and allowed two runs on five hits with four strikeouts. His third appearance was his best, with four shutout innings, including five strikeouts. On Friday, he started and pitched into the fifth frame (4 1/3 innings) and was charged with one earned run. However, he struggled with control and walked four batters while topping out in the low-90s with his fastball. Maeda's performance isn't screaming that he's ready to face big-league pitching, but his rehab window is quickly closing. 

Since spring training, the Twins have discussed the possibility of moving to a six-man rotation. In camp, the Twins had Maeda, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Bailey Ober fighting for five spots. The Twins made it clear to Ober that he'd head to Triple-A to begin the season if the other five pitchers made it out of camp healthy. However, Ober dominated during spring action, opening the possibility of a six-man rotation. Minnesota decided to send Ober to St. Paul for various reasons, but there was a possibility of reevaluating the rotation later in the season. 

Injuries have impacted the Twins roster, making a six-man rotation slightly more intriguing. There are some benefits to adding another starter to the current group. This move would allow the Twins to give their starters an extra day of rest between appearances. It also allows the club to leave starters in the game longer because their arm is fresher. Minnesota's rotation was among baseball's best in the season's early weeks, but the performance of the team's starters has regressed in recent weeks. There is certainly no guarantee of better performance from the starters when switching to a six-man rotation. 

There are also bullpen ramifications when adding another starter to the mix. Twins fans have witnessed the club's reliance on the bullpen this year, and that was with eight available arms. Pitchers at the back end of the bullpen have been shuttled between St. Paul and Minneapolis, while other arms have struggled in late-inning situations. Moving to a six-man rotation would limit the Twins to seven arms in the bullpen, which might be something other than what the club wants to do now. 

As we learned on Tuesday, Louie Varland is headed to Triple-A and Maeda will make a start soon. In his first seven starts (41 innings), Varland posted a 3.51 ERA with a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has struggled in his last three appearances, allowing 17 earned runs in 15 innings. His biggest issue has been his tendency to give up home runs, which might be one reason the Twins want him to get more time at Triple-A. It would be a tough decision to demote Varland with his early season production, but recent starts make that decision a little easier for the front office. 

A six-man rotation is undoubtedly something the Twins can consider but now isn't the best time. Minnesota needs arms in the bullpen, especially since there is no guarantee of starters pitching longer, even with more rest. Varland seems to be the odd man out, but his future is still bright, even with a return trip to St. Paul. 

Should the Twins consider a six-man rotation? How long of a leash does Maeda get when he returns? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[ashbury]

30 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

Kenta Maeda's 30-day rehab window is closing, and the Twins have a few options to add him back to the rotation. Switching to a six-man rotation is possible, but it's unclear if that would be the team's best course of action.

author-tracker.gifauthor-tracker.gif

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins expect Kenta Maeda to rejoin the club this week after missing nearly two months with a right triceps strain. He is in his age-35 season while also in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Maeda is among a group of veteran players without ties to the Twins beyond this season. The team plans to continue to use him as a starter, but they may cut ties with him if his performance dictates an alternate direction. 

Maeda's rehab appearances at Triple-A have been a mixed bag. In his first starts, he pitched two scoreless innings while striking out four and walking one. He tossed three innings in his next appearance and allowed two runs on five hits with four strikeouts. His third appearance was his best, with four shutout innings, including five strikeouts. On Friday, he started and pitched into the fifth frame (4 1/3 innings) and was charged with one earned run. However, he struggled with control and walked four batters while topping out in the low-90s with his fastball. Maeda's performance isn't screaming that he's ready to face big-league pitching, but his rehab window is quickly closing. 

Since spring training, the Twins have discussed the possibility of moving to a six-man rotation. In camp, the Twins had Maeda, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Bailey Ober fighting for five spots. The Twins made it clear to Ober that he'd head to Triple-A to begin the season if the other five pitchers made it out of camp healthy. However, Ober dominated during spring action, opening the possibility of a six-man rotation. Minnesota decided to send Ober to St. Paul for various reasons, but there was a possibility of reevaluating the rotation later in the season. 

Injuries have impacted the Twins roster, making a six-man rotation slightly more intriguing. There are some benefits to adding another starter to the current group. This move would allow the Twins to give their starters an extra day of rest between appearances. It also allows the club to leave starters in the game longer because their arm is fresher. Minnesota's rotation was among baseball's best in the season's early weeks, but the performance of the team's starters has regressed in recent weeks. There is certainly no guarantee of better performance from the starters when switching to a six-man rotation. 

There are also bullpen ramifications when adding another starter to the mix. Twins fans have witnessed the club's reliance on the bullpen this year, and that was with eight available arms. Pitchers at the back end of the bullpen have been shuttled between St. Paul and Minneapolis, while other arms have struggled in late-inning situations. Moving to a six-man rotation would limit the Twins to seven arms in the bullpen, which might be something other than what the club wants to do now. 

As we learned on Tuesday, Louie Varland is headed to Triple-A and Maeda will make a start soon. In his first seven starts (41 innings), Varland posted a 3.51 ERA with a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has struggled in his last three appearances, allowing 17 earned runs in 15 innings. His biggest issue has been his tendency to give up home runs, which might be one reason the Twins want him to get more time at Triple-A. It would be a tough decision to demote Varland with his early season production, but recent starts make that decision a little easier for the front office. 

A six-man rotation is undoubtedly something the Twins can consider but now isn't the best time. Minnesota needs arms in the bullpen, especially since there is no guarantee of starters pitching longer, even with more rest. Varland seems to be the odd man out, but his future is still bright, even with a return trip to St. Paul. 

Should the Twins consider a six-man rotation? How long of a leash does Maeda get when he returns? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

View full article

 

You hit several negatives, and to me they outweigh the positives.  Except in rare cases, a six-man rotation's main feature is to give more starts to the sixth best candidate you currently have, the last thing you should want.  Only if the extra day of rest will elevate everyone's performance will it pay off, because also the bullpen is weakened for the cases a given starter has a bad day.

I'd sooner explore the potential of a four-man rotation, but that introduces different objections.

[Whitey333]

6 man rotation?  No way for all the reasons you mentioned.  Also questioning why they are so concerned about Maeda.  He's 35, just off Tommy John then another injury.  He's a free agent at the end of the season.  He certainly doesn't seem like a long term fit here.  Cut him loose and let one of the young players come up and pitch.  Unless of course they can find another injured or injury prone pitcher to replace Maeda.  It seems that's the type of pitcher they want.

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'm not advocating a 6-man rotation but one other benefit not mentioned is keeping the innings down for folks like Ober who I believe has not ever topped 100 innings in a season of if he has not by much.

No matter how they go I do not want to see Ober sent down.  He has earned his keep.  You can try a 6-man rotation for a few cycles and if it does not work then go to the opener or put one (Maeda?) in the pen.

Keeping Ober's innings down means keeping someone else's innings up.  The pitchers performing well are presumably already maxed out.  You want more innings from Pagan?

[Chris Spencer]

I would let Maeda try and fill a middle relief roll 2/3 innings at a time. Home many games do the twins starters come out with a lead or in a close game and the first guy out of the bullpen blows it? Kenta has proven in the past to be pretty good in that roll. It would also ease him back into the mix. 

[gman]

The benefit of Maeda might be to give Varland 3-4 starts in 3A to fix his homer pitch tendencies. Maeda might not be ready, or able to pitch at the major league level yet, but I don't think they have anybody in the minors right now who looks to be ready to step in. I hope they don't give anything up for a rental, that we can get from Maeda.

[DJL44]

That's like a days rest for every inning they throw in a start.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'm not advocating a 6-man rotation but one other benefit not mentioned is keeping the innings down for folks like Ober who I believe has not ever topped 100 innings in a season of if he has not by much.

No matter how they go I do not want to see Ober sent down.  He has earned his keep.  You can try a 6-man rotation for a few cycles and if it does not work then go to the opener or put one (Maeda?) in the pen.

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Keeping Ober's innings down means keeping someone else's innings up.  The pitchers performing well are presumably already maxed out.  You want more innings from Pagan?

Ober is where my head goes with this, too. He's a tough one to handle this year. The only times he's gone beyond 100 innings pitched in a season in his life were his freshman year of college (2014), and 2021 between AAA and MLB. Those were 106.2 innings, and 108.1 innings years. He's at 81.1 this year between St Paul and the Twins. Twins have 88 games left. That's roughly 17 more starts per pitcher. Even if he only went 5 innings per start that's still another 85 innings if he makes every start he has left. I don't see anyway they let him jump to 160+ innings pitched this year.

I don't think they'll go straight 6 man rotation with continually cycling through 6 guys in order. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them do a 6 man rotation by skipping a few Ober starts by plugging in Maeda or Varland or whoever isn't in the normal 5 man rotation at the time. So don't throw off the other 4 starter's timelines between starts, but sit Ober for a start every couple weeks.

[mikelink45]

It won't happen.  We are lucky if we have five doing well and it Varland needs a reset.  If Maeda fails and Varland is not ready who is next?  Headrick just had his head handed to him, he is not the answer, Winder is back down and does not seem to be ready.  Balazovic does well in 3 inning stints.  No one else is ready that I can see.  

[Nine of twelve]

No team has ever used a 6-man rotation for an extended stretch. First, your best starters should pitch every 5th day, whether you have 1, 2, or 5. Second, many pitchers actually pitch less well with too much rest. Third, it means the bullpen is one man smaller. Going with it on a short-term occasional basis or using a one-time spot starter is probably beneficial in special circumstances but I think it's bad strategy generally.

[DocBauer]

Taking a long look at Maeda coming and Varland going down...removing emotion from it...it makes sense to me. I think it's worth giving the veteran Maeda a look-see. And personally, I really like Varland's future a lot. I see him as a future #3, and not a 1 or 2, but I think he's shown he's got a lot of potential. But he's struggled recently and a re-set at this time might really help him get back on track. We've still got more than half a season to go.

I had, briefly, wondered if the smart idea might have been letting Maeda and  and Varland piggyback one another. You might get the best of both, and potentially eliminate a pen arm, or maybe a single pen arm. But the HR propensity of Varland right now probably doesn't make that work right now.

In regard to Ober, I have to believe they will try to skip him either going in to, or coming out of, the break. And I do agree that at some point in the second half they will again try to skip him a time or two, worked around a day off here and there that might line up right. I can also see the St Paul shuttle bring up a SP for a game, instead of a pen arm, to create a skipped start. I'm hoping they can stretch him to a good 140 IP this year.

I'm not a big fan of a 6 man rotation, though I can see the benefits of the extra day off here and there in the second half. But it depends on the pen stability as well since they'd be down to 7. If they can get Thielbar 100% to go along with the improved Jax and Moran, the surprising Stewart, and the maybe for real DeLeon, a 7 man pen might work. But again, I wonder if they'd do a true 6 man rotation or use the shuttle in some manner to simply use a 6th starter here and there instead of going with a straight 6 man.

 

[IndianaTwin]

51 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

…. I can also see the Rochester shuttle bring up a SP for a game, instead of a pen arm, to create a skipped start. I'm hoping they can stretch him to a good 140 IP this year.…

 

Saints already made their trip to Rochester in April. They’d probably save expenses and do the shuttle from St. Paul… 😃

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Saints already made their trip to Rochester in April. They’d probably save expenses and do the shuttle from St. Paul… 😃

Good call! Wow! Didn't realize my day had been that difficult, lol.

Corrected. Thank you!

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Ober is where my head goes with this, too. He's a tough one to handle this year. The only times he's gone beyond 100 innings pitched in a season in his life were his freshman year of college (2014), and 2021 between AAA and MLB. Those were 106.2 innings, and 108.1 innings years. He's at 81.1 this year between St Paul and the Twins. Twins have 88 games left. That's roughly 17 more starts per pitcher. Even if he only went 5 innings per start that's still another 85 innings if he makes every start he has left. I don't see anyway they let him jump to 160+ innings pitched this year.

I don't think they'll go straight 6 man rotation with continually cycling through 6 guys in order. But I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them do a 6 man rotation by skipping a few Ober starts by plugging in Maeda or Varland or whoever isn't in the normal 5 man rotation at the time. So don't throw off the other 4 starter's timelines between starts, but sit Ober for a start every couple weeks.

So having Ober waste 18 innings in the minors at the beginning of the year will cost the Twins 3 starts this year while trying to win a major league division, hmm, imagine if people would have said even if Ober isn't in the starting rotation for the Twins why would you waste any of his limited innings in the minors. Wait, there were a  bunch of people that pointed that out and yet the Twins FO did it and then will tell us like we are fools he is on a innings limit this year and pretend they didn't piss 18 innings away.

This was in no way pointed at you, just happen to reply to your message was on point and well written.

[Doctor Wu]

At some point it's all a matter of semantics. Use a 5-man rotation, throw in a bullpen game with an "opener" whenever you need it, and just roll with whatever feels right. But the way our staff is pitching lately ... the more rest they get, maybe the better they will perform. As for Maeda, I hope he will be a starter and stay there if his performance warrants it. 

[USAFChief]

There is no reason Ober should be on any type innings limit...Other than an unproven theory with little or no supporting factual evidence. 

Let the man pitch. He might get hurt. Pitchers get hurt all the time. If he gets hurt, he misses time, which is exactly what happens if he misses time because he was held out. He also might be just fine, and NOT miss time.

 

A six man rotation is a poor idea, for all the logical reasons listed above.

 

[HokieRif]

Quote

Maeda's performance isn't screaming that he's ready to face big-league pitching...

The fact that our hitting is so bad that we're even considering putting Maeda in to bat is a new low  😁

[Beast]

I’d advocate for a 6 man rotation if we had the pitchers to do so.  I was a vocal supporter of it when I thought Mahle and Maeda were going to be healthy.

I don’t see a downside.  Especially with all of these guys that are prone to injury.

Alas, Mahle is out.  Varland isn’t good.  Meada can’t stay healthy and has looked awful in the MLB.  Who knows what the heck Keuchel is going to do.  There is no reason to run out a 6 man rotation if the 5th and 6th guy aren’t any good.

[Doctor Gast]

A 6-man rotation IMO will interfer w/ the SPs rythym. We need our SPs find their rythym & stick w/ it. We need as many RPs on the active list as we can. We also need a steady long RP, Maeda being the better choice.  But if Varland can't fix his HR problem up here then he needs to go down. Then Maeda starts but still we need a long RP ready to come in when Maeda needs help.