Now Is Not the Time for a Six-Man Rotation

30 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

Kenta Maeda's 30-day rehab window is closing, and the Twins have a few options to add him back to the rotation. Switching to a six-man rotation is possible, but it's unclear if that would be the team's best course of action.

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Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Twins expect Kenta Maeda to rejoin the club this week after missing nearly two months with a right triceps strain. He is in his age-35 season while also in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Maeda is among a group of veteran players without ties to the Twins beyond this season. The team plans to continue to use him as a starter, but they may cut ties with him if his performance dictates an alternate direction. 

Maeda's rehab appearances at Triple-A have been a mixed bag. In his first starts, he pitched two scoreless innings while striking out four and walking one. He tossed three innings in his next appearance and allowed two runs on five hits with four strikeouts. His third appearance was his best, with four shutout innings, including five strikeouts. On Friday, he started and pitched into the fifth frame (4 1/3 innings) and was charged with one earned run. However, he struggled with control and walked four batters while topping out in the low-90s with his fastball. Maeda's performance isn't screaming that he's ready to face big-league pitching, but his rehab window is quickly closing. 

Since spring training, the Twins have discussed the possibility of moving to a six-man rotation. In camp, the Twins had Maeda, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Bailey Ober fighting for five spots. The Twins made it clear to Ober that he'd head to Triple-A to begin the season if the other five pitchers made it out of camp healthy. However, Ober dominated during spring action, opening the possibility of a six-man rotation. Minnesota decided to send Ober to St. Paul for various reasons, but there was a possibility of reevaluating the rotation later in the season. 

Injuries have impacted the Twins roster, making a six-man rotation slightly more intriguing. There are some benefits to adding another starter to the current group. This move would allow the Twins to give their starters an extra day of rest between appearances. It also allows the club to leave starters in the game longer because their arm is fresher. Minnesota's rotation was among baseball's best in the season's early weeks, but the performance of the team's starters has regressed in recent weeks. There is certainly no guarantee of better performance from the starters when switching to a six-man rotation. 

There are also bullpen ramifications when adding another starter to the mix. Twins fans have witnessed the club's reliance on the bullpen this year, and that was with eight available arms. Pitchers at the back end of the bullpen have been shuttled between St. Paul and Minneapolis, while other arms have struggled in late-inning situations. Moving to a six-man rotation would limit the Twins to seven arms in the bullpen, which might be something other than what the club wants to do now. 

As we learned on Tuesday, Louie Varland is headed to Triple-A and Maeda will make a start soon. In his first seven starts (41 innings), Varland posted a 3.51 ERA with a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has struggled in his last three appearances, allowing 17 earned runs in 15 innings. His biggest issue has been his tendency to give up home runs, which might be one reason the Twins want him to get more time at Triple-A. It would be a tough decision to demote Varland with his early season production, but recent starts make that decision a little easier for the front office. 

A six-man rotation is undoubtedly something the Twins can consider but now isn't the best time. Minnesota needs arms in the bullpen, especially since there is no guarantee of starters pitching longer, even with more rest. Varland seems to be the odd man out, but his future is still bright, even with a return trip to St. Paul. 

Should the Twins consider a six-man rotation? How long of a leash does Maeda get when he returns? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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You hit several negatives, and to me they outweigh the positives.  Except in rare cases, a six-man rotation's main feature is to give more starts to the sixth best candidate you currently have, the last thing you should want.  Only if the extra day of rest will elevate everyone's performance will it pay off, because also the bullpen is weakened for the cases a given starter has a bad day.

I'd sooner explore the potential of a four-man rotation, but that introduces different objections.

15 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'm not advocating a 6-man rotation but one other benefit not mentioned is keeping the innings down for folks like Ober who I believe has not ever topped 100 innings in a season of if he has not by much.

No matter how they go I do not want to see Ober sent down.  He has earned his keep.  You can try a 6-man rotation for a few cycles and if it does not work then go to the opener or put one (Maeda?) in the pen.

Keeping Ober's innings down means keeping someone else's innings up.  The pitchers performing well are presumably already maxed out.  You want more innings from Pagan?

51 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

…. I can also see the Rochester shuttle bring up a SP for a game, instead of a pen arm, to create a skipped start. I'm hoping they can stretch him to a good 140 IP this year.…

 

Saints already made their trip to Rochester in April. They’d probably save expenses and do the shuttle from St. Paul… 😃