The Twins bullpen is Bull

[AlGoreRythm]

On 5/18/2023 at 6:14 AM, Irishman said:

Please let Pagan go!   Rocco keeping Pagan is baffling me!  I do not know what Rocco see in Pagan.   

Do you really think Rocco is making the decisions on who gets DFA'd?

He may have input, but I guarantee he's not the decider in roster moves.

[wsnydes]

On 5/17/2023 at 6:53 PM, Vanimal46 said:

I find it pretty tough to get mad at the bullpen when the Twins have scored 3 runs or less in 20 out of 45 games. 

This is what I was going to say.  With this lineup's current level of production, even if the team fixes the bullpen, it still isn't a real contender.  

The bullpen isn't the top concern for me.  Not even close.

[tony&rodney]

How many people have followed the Dodgers bullpen the last few years? They have received value from some unlikely pitchers while swallowing some bad contracts. I'm not sure the Twins can play that game.

The main trick in having a solid bullpen is having good starting pitching and an offense that scores runs. The Twins are in a pretty good spot right now, considering the unpredictable nature of their offense. I expect we shall see more offense as the season moves into June.

When thinking of relief pitchers that might have been added, I only was interested in adding one guy last offseason - Will Smith. I have no idea why the Twins did not look into or sign him. Not many people were in on Smith. I like his pitching style.

The Twins will have an opportunity to pore over their roster at the All Star break and consider making some moves in late July. Until then, the team looks good to go with some expected improvements in run production and the hopeful return of Caleb Thielbar.

 

[John Belinski]

RP's can just not walk batters. Game after game the Twins RP walks a batter or two that comes around to score. Whoever is calling the pitches shares the blame.  Walking a .200 batter should never happen. These players are paid well to play a game and there is just no excuse for walking a batter. No one is perfect, but to ask a pitcher to throw 3 of 6 pitches in the strike zone is not asking too much.

[Azviking101]

I will never undertstand why they wouldn't just go after the relievers like Matt Moore who got 7.5 million and would rather give up prospects at the deadline. Seems backwards to me.

[Major League Ready]

12 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

I will never undertstand why they wouldn't just go after the relievers like Matt Moore who got 7.5 million and would rather give up prospects at the deadline. Seems backwards to me.

Assuming you understand how horribly unreliable RPs are in general, I bet you would understand if it was your money.

[JD-TWINS]

On 5/17/2023 at 7:53 PM, Vanimal46 said:

I find it pretty tough to get mad at the bullpen when the Twins have scored 3 runs or less in 20 out of 45 games. 

If we’re ahead 5-3 in a game and we can’t hold the lead, it’s not a victory for the hitters. We need to get the job done in tight spots! Not going to happen all the time, granted…….but it shouldn’t be a 2-3 time per week concern.

If Duran has an out in the 10th & an 0-2 count after 2 fastballs, he shouldn’t throw a middle/middle curveball……we had 8 runs at the time. I get he’s not “the problem”, just an example.

Thielbar being out doesn’t help an already slim group. Don’t understand Headrick’s absence from the Pen. He was nothing but effective! 

Maeda hopefully able to put together 3-5 outs at a time in another 3-4 weeks.

By June 5th……Thielbar - Headrick - Maeda - Lopez - Duran - Balazovic - Jax - Stewart ………. Moran? Sands? DeLeon?

I honestly think this group shown here of 8-10 options is just as talented as nearly all other Pens in baseball.

 

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

Don’t understand Headrick’s absence from the Pen. He was nothing but effective! 

 

 

I think he's in line to get starts with the Twins and the team doesn't want him to be used sparingly and then have to stretch him out. 

Headrick had a good start yesterday and combined with the apparent struggles of SWR, he probably is #1 on the waiting in the pecking order for starts with the big club, meaning that if there's a doubleheader or the Twins want to give the rotation members an extra day when they've played a lot of games in a row or if there's an injury that Headrick would be a starter for the Twins. When he was called up earlier, the Twins had the depth of Ober and Varland, that is gone now.

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

If we’re ahead 5-3 in a game and we can’t hold the lead, it’s not a victory for the hitters. We need to get the job done in tight spots! Not going to happen all the time, granted…….but it shouldn’t be a 2-3 time per week concern.

The Twins are 15-3 this season when they score 5 runs or more. Again, I think the concern about the bullpen is so overblown. They get the win 83% of the time when the offense produces. 

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, Azviking101 said:

I will never undertstand why they wouldn't just go after the relievers like Matt Moore who got 7.5 million and would rather give up prospects at the deadline. Seems backwards to me.

The Twins traded for two of the best available relievers last year at the trade deadline to mixed results at best. These just aren't reliable players due to sample size and usage. Unlike the other positions, there's often not much difference between signing a top end free agent reliever and grabbing one off of the DFA pile. See Tampa for the last decade. 

Your best bet with these guys is almost always seeing enough of them to figure out when and how to use them best. See the difference between Felipe Lopez this year vs. last year. Then knowing when it's time to pull the plug like Tyler Duffey.

Pagan is the outlier of unpulled plugs. Still haven't heard a rationale for him still being on the team.

[Jim wyllie]

I think they could use at least 1 or 2 more good arms but don't forget the bullpen was overworked against the didgeridoo in part because a game that could have ended sooner, likely with a twins win was extended and blown by ridiculous umpire mistakes that even the dodgers broadcasting team felt the twins were screwed by the umps.  Jax and thielbar are solid, and duran and Lopez give us a good back end to the pen.  However letting coolumbe get away was a mistake as Moran does have control issues and pagan needs to be moved on from.   The bull pen just needs more depth.  Also Stewart has been a nice addition.

[DocBauer]

Sorry, and you can call me an optimist if you like, but IMO, the FO only made a SINGLE mistake this offseason when putting the pen together.

Despite other candidates since sent down, or released at the end of ST...and I would have tried harder to keep Coulombe, but whatever...Duran, Lopez, Jax, and Thielbar was a very good 4 to rely on. There was nothing wrong with believing in Moran and Alcala as 5th and 6th options based on stuff and previous stuff. And the 8th and final spot is always going to be a rotation from AAA for a fresh arm to eat innings as needed. It allows the team the ability to not only cover those innings, but also allows ML experience to a young arm to be introduced to MLB. 

IF either Alcala or Moran underperform, they have options to be sent down for a time. Now, Moran has looked much better of late. The problem with Alcala, IMO, is he's looked pretty damn good for 1 IP. His issue seems to be going out for a 2nd inning, and that's when he seems to allow a big hit, even if he K's a guy or two or gets someone out on weak contact. Coming back from missing almost all of 2022, I would have just used him for ONE INNING until his confidence and control came around. So I don't think he's been used correctly to this point. Moot point right now as he's out on injury.

Losing Winder and Henriquez to injury hurt options early on.

The MISTAKE made was brining back Pagan as one of the top 7. Period. And this is not simply due to his horrific meltdown against the Dogers. He has the worst Wins Probability for a Twins RP in the last 20yrs. And he's got the highest ERA and worst WPA in all of MLB for 5yrs based on something like 30IP per season! Those are absolute numbers that an organization who is so tuned in to numbers they should recognize! My one big problem with the FO is, at times, underselling some players that should get a shot, and being just blind to the lack of performance of others. Is it hubris at times? They HAVE dumped arms at times, but have an unbelievable blindspot in regard to Pagan. 

It's silly, and unrealistic, to just go out and sign a collection of bullpen options for $ to fill your pen. And even the best RP will allow runs, and lose games. Period. It's reality. 

But I argued months ago that a smart and "plugged-in" FO SHOULD have been smart enough to move on from Pagan and used his $3.5M plus a little more to single out someone to not only replace the obviously hapless Pagan, but to provide insurance for Alcala in case he needed a little more time.

I understand the RP FA market is always a bit of a crapshoot. But sometimes you take that shot vs keeping, LITERALLY,  one of the worst RP in all of MLB. The FO had a hell of an offseason. But Pagan vs opportunity for someone else was their one, singular, big mistake.

I appreciate the Twins approach, right now, to consider the St Paul rotation arms for bullpen help. Stewart looks like a great find, a former ML SP who lost 3yrs due to surgery and recovery only to reinvent himself as a higher velocity arm with different/better breaking stuff. He just needs to get his BB under control. But knowing they have a legitimate, contending team in place, they aren't afraid to bring up an arm for the pen, even if it might strain St Paul. For this season, as well as the future, it would be a mistake to make any permanent move for SWR, Headrick, or the suddenly viable Balazovic to the pen. They need to remain stretched out for NOW, as well as the future. But I agree with the FO seeming opinion that all hands are on deck to help NOW. I DON'T agree with the comment/idea that someone like Balazovic is being "prepped" for limited innings at the ML level when needed. Was that just a bad comment? I'm sure hoping so. You keep SP stretched out, and use them however you need them. 

IMO, despite his recent great start, Headrick should have been brought up while Thielbar was out. He's looked good and promising. He can always go back when Thielbar is ready. 

I like the idea of plugging guys in when you need them. It's how baseball works. But crap happens. Jax has been just fine, with only a few games where he didn't have it. He's had a few games where horrible luck and defense let him down. You stick with an arm that's done right previously. But you should also be smart enough to jettison an arm that is just BAD.

Pagan, GONE! Jax will be OK. Headrick should be up until Thielbar is ready. Rotate a few guys and trust in your arms on hand to remove mistakes and comp for injury but don't dismiss future potential by moving someone to the pen permanently. 

The Twins have a few weeks, maybe a month, to have Thielbar back, Jax at his previous self, and a couple nice arms at the ready to make a run. They have time and opportunity to make this pen work. 

[tlkriens]

Duran has pitched twice in two weeks. What a waste.

[tlkriens]

On 5/18/2023 at 1:43 PM, SwainZag said:

Building a bullpen is harder than just throwing money at it.  Very few relievers are good year in and year out.  Your top 5 RP free agents coming out of last year were:

Edwin Diaz, signed for $20M per.  Will miss the season

Kenley Jansen, signed $16M per. 4.26 ERA, 3.30 FIP so far

Aroldis Chapman, signed $3.8 per.  3.24 ERA, 2.04 FIP so far.  Having his best season since 2017, but has major character issues

Craig Kimbrel, signed $10M per.  6.60 ERA, 4.50 FIP so far

Taylor Rodgers, signed $11M per.  4.73 ERA, 6.08 FIP.

Who else would you have had them signing?  I would have liked to see an addition in the offseason as well, but it's not as easy as tossing money at.

It was baffling to me that the Twins didn't sign a single RP. Chapman would have been my #1 pick. Take your pick. Sign anyone. There was no shortage of RP out there. And to keep Pagan is unforgivable.

Carlos Estévez
Matt Moore
Mychal Givens
Chris Martin
Nick Anderson
Adam Ottavino
David Robertson
Tommy Kahnle
Seth Lugo
Trevor Gott
Luke Jackson

Pick any of them. Have the Twins ever signed a RP free agent since 2016?

[Twodogs]

On 5/17/2023 at 3:48 PM, Greglw3 said:

It's really kind of striking. I was just looking at a ranking that had Jax and Pagan 4, 5 and they are at best mediocre but leaning more toward poor. It’s becoming the AAA tryout show for a team that has the talent otherwise to win a WS. Big miscalculation in not addressing the bullpen at all through free agency or trade in the offseason. It’s heartbreaking.

Kind of funny, Chapman has 27 K's in 16 innings and KC swooped him up with a 1 year like 3 million dollar contract.  I mean sometimes you can take chances, had he stunk they could have released him and not paid much for the look.  I guess that's what KC did?

[1991]

On 5/17/2023 at 5:35 PM, tlkriens said:

The Minnesota Twins are not a serious contender until they fix the bullpen.

It’s frustrating watching the front office make a lot of the right moves to fix the team, (trading for starting pitching, addressing the injuries and depth issues of last year, keeping Byron Buxton healthy) yet not address the bullpen.

The Minnesota starting rotation has absolutely masked the lack of quality depth this bullpen has. The problem is I don't think the Twins are going to address it at the trade deadline and if they somehow do, it will only be a short term fix and the same problem will proceed next season.

https://kornradio.com/news/the-twins-bullpen-is-bull/

I wouldn't try and fix this team this year.  Championships are won by special teams.  This Twins team isn't special.  I would try to make the playoffs this year without making any expensive moves and keep building for a special team at some point.

[JD-TWINS]

On 5/19/2023 at 10:43 AM, stringer bell said:

I think he's in line to get starts with the Twins and the team doesn't want him to be used sparingly and then have to stretch him out. 

Headrick had a good start yesterday and combined with the apparent struggles of SWR, he probably is #1 on the waiting in the pecking order for starts with the big club, meaning that if there's a doubleheader or the Twins want to give the rotation members an extra day when they've played a lot of games in a row or if there's an injury that Headrick would be a starter for the Twins. When he was called up earlier, the Twins had the depth of Ober and Varland, that is gone now.

I get the logic of keeping him stretched out - particularly since SWR doesn’t seem to be the answer. We can’t have sub-par guys in the Pen while we’re using up good innings in St Paul for some future need/situation. Bring Balazovic up! 

[stringer bell]

50 minutes ago, 1991 said:

I wouldn't try and fix this team this year.  Championships are won by special teams.  This Twins team isn't special.  I would try to make the playoffs this year without making any expensive moves and keep building for a special team at some point.

The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves had so-so teams that made the right moves and got healthy and won World Series recently. They didn't look special until late in the season, or maybe in the post-season. I don't think we can make judgments in May about who is championship material. 

That said, the flaws on the Twins right now are pretty apparent. They need a more consistent and deeper lineup and a deeper bullpen. Adding Polanco, Kirilloff and Lewis to the Opening Day roster could make the lineup pretty good if their top-paid players can start playing like All-Stars. Finding enough bullpen arms is also crucial.

[jorgenswest]

Pagán has put up a “0 ER” in 12 of his 16 outings this year. Last year it was 40 of 61. In the outings where he gives up runs, teams put up crooked numbers way too often.

I am the last to advocate for Pagán. I think I had the first comment in Seth’s article about the trade saying “Why would anyone want two years of Emilio Pagán?”

I do wonder though if there is some value in his ratio of clean outings. Is it better than someone like Moran who has clean outing in 9 of 16 appearances but has a better ERA? Is this even a skill. I don’t know. 

[Thegrin]

Have patience.  Jax was brilliant last year. Who's to say this this will be his last bad game until August?  We've seen relievers be terrible for a couple months and then become unhittable for the rest of the year. This could happen to Jax, Accala or even Pagan?  Remember last year , Lopez was excellent with Baltimore and mediocre with us.  This year he has been fantastic.  Be patiennt folks and let the year play out. :)

[Greglw3]

7 hours ago, Twodogs said:

Kind of funny, Chapman has 27 K's in 16 innings and KC swooped him up with a 1 year like 3 million dollar contract.  I mean sometimes you can take chances, had he stunk they could have released him and not paid much for the look.  I guess that's what KC did?

I’d love to have Chapman now!

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I’d love to have Chapman now!

Horrible human that I never want to root for. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Thegrin said:

Have patience.  Jax was brilliant last year. Who's to say this this will be his last bad game until August?  We've seen relievers be terrible for a couple months and then become unhittable for the rest of the year. This could happen to Jax, Accala or even Pagan?  Remember last year , Lopez was excellent with Baltimore and mediocre with us.  This year he has been fantastic.  Be patiennt folks and let the year play out. :)

This board can't even see patience from where it is most days. 

[August J Gloop]

On 5/20/2023 at 5:25 PM, Greglw3 said:

I’d love to have Chapman now!

Yea! Who cares about shooting a gun 8 times at his GF and choking her? He can get low pressure strikeouts for teams going nowhere! 

[August J Gloop]

On 5/20/2023 at 5:45 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Horrible human that I never want to root for. 

I will not root for a team that rosters this man. 

[Greglw3]

On 5/22/2023 at 1:01 PM, August J Gloop said:

Yea! Who cares about shooting a gun 8 times at his GF and choking her? He can get low pressure strikeouts for teams going nowhere! 

 

On 5/22/2023 at 1:02 PM, August J Gloop said:

I will not root for a team that rosters this man. 

I didn’t know anything about him shooting his gf or choking her. Just commenting on him being third best option if they got him. I wonder why KC signed him?

[stringer bell]

I'm a little more optimistic about Moran lately and Stewart seems to have the ability to wriggle out of jams, although he actually got some help from other relievers. De Leon seems to have pretty good stuff. This bullpen isn't a helpless case. 

Jorge Lopez and particularly Jax could do with staying out of the highest leverage spots right now

[Doctor Wu]

Sure, in an ideal world you can always hope for a better bullpen, but I'm pretty content with what we have this year. As others have pointed out, our biggest problem is scoring runs and avoiding strikeouts. Last I read, we were leading the league (or the majors?) in striking out this season. Gotta put the ball in play!

[Rod Carews Birthday]

11 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'm a little more optimistic about Moran lately and Stewart seems to have the ability to wriggle out of jams, although he actually got some help from other relievers. De Leon seems to have pretty good stuff. This bullpen isn't a helpless case. 

Jorge Lopez and particularly Jax could do with staying out of the highest leverage spots right now

Agreed.  There will always be ebb and flow to the bullpen arms.  This week's world beater is next week's bum.  That's the way that it is.  In looking at the options that were out there this past offseason, it appears that about 30% of them would have been good options.  The worst part is that those 30% of relievers wasn't very predictable.  Some of the "great" arms aren't producing while some of the lesser ones are. 

I do think trying to pick up someone at the deadline is in order, particularly if you can have an additional year of control, but until then, let's sort out what we have and bring some guys along. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On 5/20/2023 at 11:49 AM, 1991 said:

I wouldn't try and fix this team this year.  Championships are won by special teams.  This Twins team isn't special.  I would try to make the playoffs this year without making any expensive moves and keep building for a special team at some point.

In my experience teams are labeled "special" more in retrospect, after the season, than they are apparent when they are in the midst of the race.  There are a few exceptions, like the '27 Yankees, but it is mostly revisionist history.  In the Twins' case, the 1987 team was only special in that it got really hot at the right time and couldn't lose in the Dome.  The 1991 team was better, but it wasn't an amazing juggernaut either.  If only special teams won championships we could more easily identify them and the playoffs would lose their usefulness.