Is it Ober for Maeda?

[chpettit19]

44 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think the concern is not just yesterday's results, but the fact his fastball was at 87-88 MPH. Everyone can have a bad day. Very few pitchers can survive at the MLB level with an 87-88 MPH fastball. Suggest he isn't ready to pitch after the surgery yet. 

He was at 91-92 to start the season so I'm not sure we can tie it to the surgery. But his last 2 starts have seen that drop to 90, and then below 90 yesterday. I don't think that's the surgery, but it's quite possibly something health-wise. He sure didn't look comfortable yesterday.

Even if he's 89-90 when he comes back I'm not that concerned about his velo, it's his command that matters. He's never averaged more than 92 on his fastball in any big league season. Being at 90 isn't much of a deal. But if he doesn't have control of his splitter, and slider, he's toast. I think finding his control is far more important than throwing 91-92 again. He can survive at 90, but needs control.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 4/26/2023 at 4:56 PM, chpettit19 said:

I'd actually go Varland instead of Ober, but Kenta needs an IL stint. Generally speaking I'd give Kenta more starts, but if he takes a week or 2 of just pens and rest before making a few rehab stints I'll go off whatever those rehab stints suggest. I'm not sure the pen is a great option for him, though. His stuff isn't going to play up there, and, to me, the question isn't a matter of 5/6 innings vs 1/2 innings for him. If he's good I'd have him in the rotation again. If he isn't, he wouldn't really be part of my plans beyond mop up duty instead of Pagan.

I'm curious why you would choose Varland over Ober. Ober performed well last year in the major leagues, this spring in spring training he was lights out and he has performed well at AAA. Varland has had some good performances, but not better than Ober. Ober has paid his dues and has performed well. There will be room for both in 2024. 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I'm curious why you would choose Varland over Ober. Ober performed well last year in the major leagues, this spring in spring training he was lights out and he has performed well at AAA. Varland has had some good performances, but not better than Ober. Ober has paid his dues and has performed well. There will be room for both in 2024. 

I don't think Ober can hold up to a starter's workload, and I'm not interested in having a guy in the rotation who can't get through 5 innings every time out. I think Varland can throw 6 innings while Ober is a 4 or 5 inning guy. Or Ober will be shutdown at some point and they'll have to rearrange the rotation to accommodate that. I'd just prefer putting in the guy who's not significantly worse, and is less likely to cause significant shifts in the rest of the pitching staff.

I fully expect it to be Ober who takes over, and I'm not mad about it. Just not what I'd do.

[Mike h]

23 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

If the MRI reveals he is indeed injured, then we get the desired short term result of placing him on IL/rehab assignment. 

If it doesn’t, then what? Why is there a reluctance to DFA/release him? He’s 35, pending free agent, due $3 million, lost multiple ticks on his velocity and lost command. There’s really no reason to hide him in the bullpen. Just let him go and bring up the younger talent. 

Why is there a reluctance to DFA/ release him? Because TJ pitchers are often better two years out than one year out. Although he will be another year older, I suspect he will be better next year than he is now. But, yeah, what do you do with him this year? If he can't go on the IL,  can he be sent to the minors to continue rehab? 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think Ober can hold up to a starter's workload, and I'm not interested in having a guy in the rotation who can't get through 5 innings every time out. I think Varland can throw 6 innings while Ober is a 4 or 5 inning guy. Or Ober will be shutdown at some point and they'll have to rearrange the rotation to accommodate that. I'd just prefer putting in the guy who's not significantly worse, and is less likely to cause significant shifts in the rest of the pitching staff.

I fully expect it to be Ober who takes over, and I'm not mad about it. Just not what I'd do.

I don't think you're wrong but I would looks at it slightly differently. I think Ober can handle 6-7 inning stints, but I don't think he can handle 150-175 innings this year. I thought going into this year that it would be great to find a way to take the 30-35 starts and 200-225 innings from #5 starter spot and give 15 starts/100 innings to Maeda coming of TJ and 15 starts/100 innings to Ober after he only pitched 56 MLB innings last year and 92 the year before.  Il stints may be the best way to do that. Both Ober and Maeda only have so many bullets to fire this year - let's manage them so they aren't wasted in AAA. Throw in varland and you have that spot covered with a little room for the inevitable IL stints for Gray and Mahle. 

[rwilfong86]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think Ober can hold up to a starter's workload, and I'm not interested in having a guy in the rotation who can't get through 5 innings every time out. I think Varland can throw 6 innings while Ober is a 4 or 5 inning guy. Or Ober will be shutdown at some point and they'll have to rearrange the rotation to accommodate that. I'd just prefer putting in the guy who's not significantly worse, and is less likely to cause significant shifts in the rest of the pitching staff.

I fully expect it to be Ober who takes over, and I'm not mad about it. Just not what I'd do.

It's kinda nice they have 2 #5 starters to choose from right now. Even with Maeda not looking so good it doesn't really cause any sort of "negative" impact in my opinion. Best case scenario Maeda was 2020 version, worst case, he either doesn't cut it (or gets hurt) and they have guys like Ober and Varland who look to be good options at the back end of the rotation. 

[Finlander]

I think Ober has demonstrated his skills and poise in the majors enough to be considered a notch above Varland. His height is also an advantage in that his delivery is a different look for an opposing hitter. It's tough enough to have an all-righthanded rotation, but the release points of both Ober and Ryan help to differentiate between the pitchers and keep the hitters nervous. I like Varland too. He'll get his shot soon.

[Craig Arko]

 

[jkcarew]

I see what you did there!

It’s not necessarily Ober for Maeda…and it’s not necessarily over for Maeda.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=y3oiPbNfw98&feature=share

[TruthInDuluth]

Varland is a de cent option too, but Ober had a really nice start last time out. 

im just glad remainder of starting cast have all looked good so far

 

[Doctor Gast]

BTW  I love your pun! 4Twins

[Twodogs]

10 hours ago, wabene said:

It is too bad it's taken 4 losses to get to this point. I'm a little surprised that while working closely behind the scenes with Kenta, management couldn't see he didn't quite have it, that it cost this many games. It is hindsight and not quite that simple I suppose.

I think Ober is still the #6 guy, with Louie #7. Hendrick may be edging past the 22 year old SWR for #8. Ober has the talent to run with this chance and he looks ready. Will be hold up? 

Well yeah, I mean he has 4 losses.  However, he didn't really pitch that poorly until his last outing.  First start he lost but he only gave up 1 run.  Then in his next start he threw well also, went an extra inning as compared to his first start.  Then his 3rd start he got the liner off of his leg, and then his last start was terrible.  Now he's had some struggles out there but his overall numbers weren't really that bad.  So I can see why they gave him a shot 

[Mike Sixel]

If Ober is limited in innings, he should be with the Twins so those innings are valuable to the big league team 

[blindeke]

All y'all will be happy when Maeda shows back up now that Mahle is mysteriously injured again...

[stringer bell]

In answer to the title of this thread, “yes”. 
 

Hat tip to @USAFChief

[SwainZag]

Ober to start tomorrow. 

 

 

[August J Gloop]

Ober tomorrow.

When Mahle is down, I'd actually give Headrick the start. Not cuz I think he's better overall than Varland, but because he's been nearly as good and is left handed. Good to put a lefty in the starting rotation if you can.

Then if Maeda and/or Mahle are going to be out for a long time, I'd reconsider based on results after 2-3 starts from Ober and Headrick. 

 

[Shobae]

I feel like Maeda should take over the long relief role so he can get some more reps with a lower workload and the twins can see how likely it is he can actually start games for them reliably this season. I'd like to see Baily Ober get as much MLB experience as possible tbh, so that we can get a better idea of who the true Ober is. Because since June first of 2021 he has a 3.27 ERA and 3.53 FIP over 27 starts and a 135 IP. If Ober turns out to be a guy who can be a good starter then he's obviously a key piece of your rotation in the coming seasons. If he's around league average after all then he's certainly a solid number 5 but not a guy you have to have.

[valgravel91]

On 4/27/2023 at 12:09 PM, SwainZag said:

So what you are suggesting?  Rocco and Co. knew the bullpen session went badly, lied to the media and fans and still put him out there to start?  What good would that do anyone?

Isnt it reasonable that the bullpen session went fine and something happened while he was throwing yesterday?

I don't know that I'm implying a conspiracy necessarily. 

[Doctor Wu]

At this point I only hope Maeda just needs rest and can come back in a few more weeks, healthy and motivated, and throw some effective innings, whether that's as a starter or even in the bullpen. Seems like health will be an issue with several of our starters this year, so a few more roster moves are likely. I like Maeda and think he's a classy player, so I really hope we see more of him this year.

[Squirrel]

49 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Twins fans reality.  Most always a hope and pray mode.  Why do they trade or pick up the older players who have a history of IL stints?  How long do we keep waiting/hoping to see some value?  Seems like his is or will never be back to what we traded him for.  Would rather we would have held on to Graterol and Raley.  What they have been doing with hoping and praying isn't working.

They should start bringing up our minor league starters before they get older and start to have injuries.   When looking at the 24-25 year olds but seems like slim pickings though!

Keep to topic. And please refrain from commenting on other posters. Thanks,

[MABB1959]

57 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Keep to topic. And please refrain from commenting on other posters. Thanks,

Thought the post was about Maeda and did not mention other posters