Reviewing the Kenta Maeda Trade

[Cody Christie]

Kenta Maeda is entering his final year of team control and has pitched well in his return from Tommy John surgery. Let's look back at the trade that brought him to Minnesota. Did the Twins win the trade?

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Kenta Maeda returned triumphantly to the mound last week after nearly 18 months between starts while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He looked dominant in his first start with nine strikeouts across five innings, including Whiffs on 45% of opponent's swings. The Twins skipped his third start after he dealt with some fatigue. Like his return from injury, his acquisition by the Twins was filled with some bumps. Let's look back at the trade that brought him to Minnesota. 

Initially, the Twins were part of a monster three-team deal that included the Twins, Red Sox, and Dodgers. That deal looked like the Dodgers receiving Mookie Betts (BOS) and David Price (BOS), the Red Sox receiving Alex Verdugo (LA) and Brusdar Graterol (MN), and the Twins receiving Kenta Maeda (LA). Boston expressed concerns over Graterol's medicals and wanted the Twins to include another high-ranked prospect. Minnesota pulled out of the deal after that request. 

Eventually, the Dodgers and Twins were able to put a similar deal in place without including the Red Sox. Los Angeles received Graterol, Luke Raley, and the 67th selection in the 2020 MLB Draft. (Note - MLB draft picks cannot be traded, with the exception of the Competitive Balance picks.) Minnesota acquired Kenta Maeda, Jair Camargo, and cash considerations. It's been over three years since the two teams agreed to the trade, so both organizations have a clearer picture of the results.  

Dodgers Trade Acquisitions
At the time of the trade, Graterol was considered a top-100 prospect, but his time as a starter was ending. Graterol has pitched in the Dodgers bullpen for the last four seasons with mixed results. In 120 total innings, he's combined for a 3.83 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a 95-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball has always been his calling card, averaging triple digits during the 2022 season. However, big-league hitters can hit that velocity, especially since it is pretty straight, and his 7.1 K/9 could (maybe should?) be better for a reliever. Graterol has filled a role for the Dodgers but has yet to develop into a dominant bullpen arm. 

Raley came to the Twins from the Dodgers in the Brian Dozier trade, so Los Angeles wanted him back. He broke into the majors with LA during the 2021 season and posted a .538 OPS in 33 games. The Dodgers traded him to the Rays leading into the 2022 season, and he's found a role with one of baseball's best organizations. To start the 2023 season, he's gone 4-for-15 (.267) with three home runs and a .867 SLG. 

The Dodgers used their draft pick from the Twins to select Clayton Beeter in the second round of the 2020 MLB Draft. He's spent most of his professional career pitching at Double-A. For his career, he has a 4.04 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, and a 14.4 K/9. During the 2022 season, he was traded from the Dodgers to the Yankees for Joey Gallo. He's posted a sub-2.15 ERA since joining the Yankee organization, so they may have solved some of his former issues.

Twins Trade Acquisitions
Maeda's first season with the Twins couldn't have gone much better. After posting a 2.70 ERA with an MLB-leading 0.75 WHIP, he finished runner-up for the AL Cy Young. His performance declined during the 2021 season (4.66 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP), but he was fighting through elbow issues and never had his command. Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2021, and it took him over 18 months to pitch in another game for the Twins. He's in his last year of team control and turns 35 on April 11th. During the 2023 season, he's trying to prove he is healthy and can continue to be an effective starter.

Maeda wasn't the only piece with value to the Twins. Jair Camargo is coming off a solid season, hitting .262/.310/.483 (.793) with 11 doubles and 18 home runs in 77 games between High-A Cedar Rapids and Double-A Wichita. Catcher is his primary defensive position, but he has had some at-bats at first base and DH too. He became a free agent last offseason but very quickly re-signed with the Twins and received his first invitation to big-league spring training. Camargo is starting the 2023 season by getting his first taste of Triple-A, where he is over three years younger than the average age of the competition. Every organization needs catching depth, and there is a chance the Twins will need him at the big-league level. 

This trade would be an easy win for the Twins if Maeda stayed healthy. His 2023 season started well, but there are no guarantees with 35-year-old pitchers coming off major elbow surgery. Which team won the trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.  

View full article

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Still some TBD with Camargo in the works and the primarys of the deal working things out.  Going by where we are at today, at worst this trade is a tie, or the Twins winning by a smallish margin.

Another deal that needs to be revisited in a few years to see how things really worked out. 

[Doctor Gast]

Normally I like to throw out '20 season but you can't throw out that Maeda helped us a lot to win the American Central Division. He really didn't do anything for us '21 0r '22. '23 will help a lot to determine his contributions to this team. Carmargo isn't any value to us unless he learns catching, which they don't seem to want to concentrate  him there.

Graterol has vacilated between good to very good this last 3 years and will continue to help LAD in the BP in years to come. Luke Raley was traded for Tanner Dodson a decent RP prospect.

But IMO in LAD eyes they won the trade. Because they wanted to unload a disgruntle Maeda and Graterol was more than what they were willing to receive in trade. They'd have settle for less.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Normally I like to throw out '20 season but you can't throw out that Maeda helped us a lot to win the American Central Division. He really didn't do anything for us '21 0r '22. '23 will help a lot to determine his contributions to this team. Carmargo isn't any value to us unless he learns catching, which they don't seem to want to concentrate  him there.

Graterol has vacilated between good to very good this last 3 years and will continue to help LAD in the BP in years to come. Luke Raley was traded for Tanner Dodson a decent RP prospect.

But IMO in LAD eyes they won the trade. Because they wanted to unload a disgruntle Maeda and Graterol was more than what they were willing to receive in trade. They'd have settle for less.

What makes you think they'd have settled for less?

[sean.in.dallas]

Haven't really won anything until they win a playoff game :) The goal is to win championships, not maximize WAR or any other metric.

[JW24]

Feels like a trade both teams would do again if given the chance. Graterol was probably a more impactful pitcher on the Dodgers WS team than Maeda would have been (3 appearances in the final 4 games, 2 innings and no runs) and if the goal is to win championships, hard to say the Dodgers could have done much better.

The Twins make the Maeda deal every time if given the chance. Graterol has thrown 113 innings for the Dodgers since the trade. Maeda nearly eclipsed that in his shortened 2021 season. It helps Maeda's case that Graterol has largely been an average reliever and not a dominant back-of-the-pen arm. Either way, the Twins got a solid starter at a time when they didn't have much for pitching and sold high on a guy who hasn't hit his lofty expectations. Not a bad outcome.

[nicksaviking]

With the high hopes we (I) had for Graterol, I'd honestly be pretty disappointed in him had he still been a Twin. He's been OK, but for the most part pretty fungible. That his fastball never translated into dominant strikeout numbers would have been a huge disappointment.

MAYBE the Twins front office would have had him drop the sinker for a four seamer, and they probably wouldn't have had him add the cutter since the cutter and sinker are a pretty redundant pitch, but the Dodgers are known for getting the most out of their pitchers, so I'd think they're getting close to the most he has to offer.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

40 minutes ago, JW24 said:

Feels like a trade both teams would do again if given the chance. Graterol was probably a more impactful pitcher on the Dodgers WS team than Maeda would have been (3 appearances in the final 4 games, 2 innings and no runs) and if the goal is to win championships, hard to say the Dodgers could have done much better.

The Twins make the Maeda deal every time if given the chance. Graterol has thrown 113 innings for the Dodgers since the trade. Maeda nearly eclipsed that in his shortened 2021 season. It helps Maeda's case that Graterol has largely been an average reliever and not a dominant back-of-the-pen arm. Either way, the Twins got a solid starter at a time when they didn't have much for pitching and sold high on a guy who hasn't hit his lofty expectations. Not a bad outcome.

I think so too, absolutely.  That being said, aside from an excellent short season from Maeda and a couple of pivotal appearances for Graterol, the overall numbers from both sides are pretty underwhelming.  I guess that makes the trade a wash between the two clubs, but I think both teams had much higher hopes than that at the time the trade was made.  Nobody got fleeced here. 

[jorgenswest]

Any trade of a reliever for a starting pitcher that finishes 2nd in the Cy Young voting for you is a win. Who would say no to that trade?

[FlyingFinn]

Twins won this trade. Maeda helped get the Twins to the playoffs and almost won the Cy Young and was very good until the injury. Grateral has been okay to good for the Dodgers. I thought Camargo would make this trade even better but he has started off very slow for the Saints. He does catch about as much as anyone in the Twins system as almost nobody catches 4 games a week (Winkel with Wichita being the exception) in the Twins minor league system.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, sean.in.dallas said:

Haven't really won anything until they win a playoff game :) The goal is to win championships, not maximize WAR or any other metric.

If we grade trades by championships won then 90% of trades are lost by both teams.

[wabene]

4 hours ago, sean.in.dallas said:

Haven't really won anything until they win a playoff game :) The goal is to win championships, not maximize WAR or any other metric.

 

 

[Aerodeliria]

I would hardly call Maeda 'disgruntled.' He was told he would be a starter, which he had been for his entire career, but the Dodgers relegated him to the bullpen because they were flush with starters. He never openly complained about this, and did his job admirably, but when asked, he said that he wanted to return to being a starter, which he preferred, so there was mutual interest on both sides for the trade. At this point, the trade is pretty much even. It would have been a blowout in the Twins favor had Maeda not had arm troubles--a wildcard for pitching trades. (Or sometimes not such a wildcard when teams have an inkling that a pitcher's arm might be suspect--something that has betrayed the Twins a number of times, and which is the primary reason I was against the Arraez trade.) In any case, the arm problems Maeda had were just unfortunate, but the upside is that the final judgment can hardly be made at this point, and it is debatable who has won. It's not like the Pressley fiasco, which only starry-eyed fans could defend and still irritates me even mentioning it.

[Karbo]

It was fairly well known at the time that Maeda had a questionable arm. That being said, the Twins got a little more than they expected and the Dodgers probably a little less than they hoped for. IMO the trade is fairly even so far.

[wabene]

9 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I would hardly call Maeda 'disgruntled.' He was told he would be a starter, which he had been for his entire career, but the Dodgers relegated him to the bullpen because they were flush with starters. He never openly complained about this, and did his job admirably, but when asked, he said that he wanted to return to being a starter, which he preferred, so there was mutual interest on both sides for the trade. At this point, the trade is pretty much even. It would have been a blowout in the Twins favor had Maeda not had arm troubles--a wildcard for pitching trades. (Or sometimes not such a wildcard when teams have an inkling that a pitcher's arm might be suspect--something that has betrayed the Twins a number of times, and which is the primary reason I was against the Arraez trade.) In any case, the arm problems Maeda had were just unfortunate, but the upside is that the final judgment can hardly be made at this point, and it is debatable who has won. It's not like the Pressley fiasco, which only starry-eyed fans could defend and still irritates me even mentioning it.

Alcala🤩Lol

[Doctor Gast]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What makes you think they'd have settled for less?

When a player requests to be traded publicly on youtube because he doesn't like how he's been used primarily as a RP. The team then is motivated to sell and they were shopping him. The Twins weren't motivated to trade their top pitching prospect Graterol. It was getting late into the ST. This is an assumption based on info that's out there. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

When a player requests to be traded because he doesn't like how he's been used primarily as a RP. The team then is motivated to sell and they were shopping him. The Twins weren't motivated to trade their top pitching prospect Graterol. It's an assumption based on info that's out there. 

Them "shopping him" and him having requested a trade doesn't mean they're just going to give him away. Everyone knew Graterol was a reliever by then. His value wasn't all that high. Especially after the Red Sox refused him because they realized he was a reliever with possible arm problems. A reliever is never worth more than a starter. Especially when it's a rookie reliever (with possible arm problems) vs an established starter. It's pretty massive assumption that they'd have taken less.

And Kenta wasn't being used "primarily as a RP." He was shifted to the pen late the last 3 seasons with the Dodgers, but he made more starts than relief appearances in every one of his seasons there. 32 G with 32 GS (no relief appearances). 29 G with 25 GS (4 relief appearances to 25 starts). 39 G with 20 GS (this one was close with only 1 more start). 37 G with 26 starts (back to more than twice as many starts). Overall he made 103 starts and 34 relief appearances for the Dodgers. That is not how I'd define being used "primarily as a RP."

[Loosey]

Overall, I think the Twins should be happy with this trade.  Graterol would likely be a solid reliever in this current bullpen and probably in the Jovani Moran or Jorge Alcala role.  But at this point I personally would have him behind Duran, Jax, Lopez when closing out games.  Maeda has been a good starter when healthy and was very good in 2020.  

So using hindsight, anytime you can get an above average starter for a 7th inning reliever with upside you make that trade.  

[Doctor Gast]

58 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Them "shopping him" and him having requested a trade doesn't mean they're just going to give him away. Everyone knew Graterol was a reliever by then. His value wasn't all that high. Especially after the Red Sox refused him because they realized he was a reliever with possible arm problems. A reliever is never worth more than a starter. Especially when it's a rookie reliever (with possible arm problems) vs an established starter. It's pretty massive assumption that they'd have taken less.

And Kenta wasn't being used "primarily as a RP." He was shifted to the pen late the last 3 seasons with the Dodgers, but he made more starts than relief appearances in every one of his seasons there. 32 G with 32 GS (no relief appearances). 29 G with 25 GS (4 relief appearances to 25 starts). 39 G with 20 GS (this one was close with only 1 more start). 37 G with 26 starts (back to more than twice as many starts). Overall he made 103 starts and 34 relief appearances for the Dodgers. That is not how I'd define being used "primarily as a RP."

I stand corrected on Maeda's usage and I never said that LAD would give Maeda away (I was going write this in my previous post, I regret not doing so). My suggestion would to offer an equal value trade that'd include a different SP + power bat prospects or 2 different SP prospects, instead of Graterol. Which would be more benefical to the Twins & LAD might agree upon (because of their situation). That's the point I was making.

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

I stand corrected on Maeda's usage and I never said that LAD would give Maeda away (I was going write this in my previous post, I regret not doing so). My suggestion would to offer an equal value trade that'd include a different SP + power bat prospects or 2 different SP prospects, instead of Graterol. Which would be more benefical to the Twins & LAD might agree upon. That's the point I was making.

 

Yeah, that's not less value than Graterol. We can just agree to disagree here. Graterol was a reliever by the time he got traded. That is not an overly valuable piece no matter where he may have shown up on prospect rankings that rank him as a starter still. Giving up multiple starter prospects instead of a reliever prospect is giving up more value, not less. It was publicly known that Graterol was a reliever at that point and his value wasn't that high. In 28 total appearances in 2019 he made 11 starts, and all 10 of his major league appearances were out of the pen. He'd already started his shift to the pen and Boston put it out publicly that his arm had concerns, and he couldn't be more than a reliever. That is not a highly valuable piece. But to each their own.

[Doctor Gast]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, that's not less value than Graterol. We can just agree to disagree here. Graterol was a reliever by the time he got traded. That is not an overly valuable piece no matter where he may have shown up on prospect rankings that rank him as a starter still. Giving up multiple starter prospects instead of a reliever prospect is giving up more value, not less. It was publicly known that Graterol was a reliever at that point and his value wasn't that high. In 28 total appearances in 2019 he made 11 starts, and all 10 of his major league appearances were out of the pen. He'd already started his shift to the pen and Boston put it out publicly that his arm had concerns, and he couldn't be more than a reliever. That is not a highly valuable piece. But to each their own.

I don't think we disagree, just maybe misunderstand. I never said that it wasn't a fair trade. Maybe you think that LAD wouldn't accept a different offer, that's where we may differ. 

P.S.- this FO has been very tight lip about most things, which drives me crazy sometimes. Here with the idea of moving Graterol to the BP & broadcasting it served no purpose. On this occasion they should have kept their trap shut.

[Aerodeliria]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

Alcala🤩Lol

You made a starryeyed fan! Nice, but I still think we got shafted. We lost all those years of Pressley's elite skills.

[jmlease1]

I think it was a fine trade for both teams. Twins needed a starter, badly. LA needed bullpen help, especially cheap bullpen help. Both teams got what they wanted.

Maeda's injury keeps this from being a total unqualified success for the Twins; instead of getting 4 seasons of a quality starter with the ability to be a front-line playoff pitcher, we're looking at more like 2 1/2, which is a bummer. But he was gold in 2020 and a key performer on a division winning team.

Graterol hasn't been the lock-down flamethrower that can anchor the back of a bullpen like LA hoped, but he hasn't been bad either. more of a solid guy that a star, he's missed some time and arguably under performed his stuff a little, but as is more and more clear: 100mph doesn't mean that much in MLB if it's flat and straight. He's a bit too hittable for me. 

I think both teams are fairly happy with the results of the trade. If forced to pick a winner, I'd say it's the Twins because starters are just more valuable and harder to find than relievers.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't think we disagree, just maybe misunderstand. I never said that it wasn't a fair trade. Maybe you think that LAD wouldn't accept a different offer, that's where we may differ. 

You said "Graterol was more than what they were willing to receive in trade. They'd have settle for less." So you started off with the Dodgers got more than they expected, and would've taken a lesser package than Graterol. I questioned why you believe that because I disagree.

You said "The Twins weren't motivated to trade their top pitching prospect Graterol." You're now stating that Graterol was their best pitching prospect, and thus a valuable trade piece. I disagreed because he was a reliever.

You said "My suggestion would to offer an equal value trade that'd include a different SP + power bat prospects or 2 different SP prospects, instead of Graterol. Which would be more benefical to the Twins & LAD might agree upon (because of their situation)." At this point you seem to be saying that you have switched from "the Twins gave up more than the Dodgers were expecting" to "well they could've sent a different combination of players that were the same value."

I guess that's where the confusion comes from. Your original statment was that they'd have "settled for less." I applied that thought to your subsequent statements and understood you to be saying that a combination of a different SP+power bat or 2 different SP prospects would've been a lesser value than Graterol since your initial premise was the Twins gave up more than they needed to. I'm sure there were other players in the Twins org that the Dodgers would've also accepted. I disagree that Graterol was their best pitching prospect (because he was a reliever), and that he was worth more than either of your proposed combinations. Him being a reliever means he's automatically worth less than any individual player in either of those packages, unless you're talking about non-prospects that the Dodgers wouldn't have been interested in anyways. A SP prospect and a power bat prospect are both worth more individually than a reliever prospect. We seem to disagree on what Graterol was, and thus what all of the pieces included really value at. But debating these things is why we're here. I appreciate the back and forth. But we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[August J Gloop]

Graterol has more impressive stuff, but Maeda has been as good a pitcher since the trade, apart from the whole injury thing. Even this year, they're taking different routes to the same place. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kenta-maeda-628317?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brusdar-graterol-660813?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

[Loosey]

10 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Graterol hasn't been the lock-down flamethrower that can anchor the back of a bullpen like LA hoped, but he hasn't been bad either. more of a solid guy that a star, he's missed some time and arguably under performed his stuff a little, but as is more and more clear: 100mph doesn't mean that much in MLB if it's flat and straight. He's a bit too hittable for me. 

 

I think initially us as fans were enamored by the 100MPH fastball since we hadn't seen someone with that type of power come through the Twins organization.  Now half the Twins bullpen can touch 100MPH and is almost a pre-requisite for a back end reliever in the MLB.  And even more so, like you said, if it doesn't have movement it isn't going to be too tough for most Major League hitters.  

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Aerodeliria said:

You made a starryeyed fan! Nice, but I still think we got shafted. We lost all those years of Pressley's elite skills.

You are correct, sort of. We lost, what I think 1.5 years of control? The guy loves Houston, the GIANT suburb. Chances are he wouldn't have signed here. Cele and Alcala have underwhelmed so far. Hard to say IMO. 

Edit: correction, I think we traded one half of a year of control. We traded him in his 6th MLB season. So I guess I would say you are mostly incorrect.

He was not the guy he became in Houston for us.

There is no way to know we would have made him that guy.

He was not signing here, but he keeps signing 2 year deals to play in his hometown. 

I'll bet the Twins tried to extend him, he said no, they traded him. 

This deal did work very well for Houston, however. 

[Aerodeliria]

8 hours ago, wabene said:

You are correct, sort of. We lost, what I think 1.5 years of control? The guy loves Houston, the GIANT suburb. Chances are he wouldn't have signed here. Cele and Alcala have underwhelmed so far. Hard to say IMO. 

Edit: correction, I think we traded one half of a year of control. We traded him in his 6th MLB season. So I guess I would say you are mostly incorrect.

He was not the guy he became in Houston for us.

There is no way to know we would have made him that guy.

He was not signing here, but he keeps signing 2 year deals to play in his hometown. 

I'll bet the Twins tried to extend him, he said no, they traded him. 

This deal did work very well for Houston, however. 

Fair enough, but I thought he wasn't used correctly here. Maybe that is also what you are saying. He was always going to be the guy (closer), and Molitor really didn't give him much of chance to be that guy. It was one of the reasons that I started to agree with a lot of Twins fans that Molitor was also not the guy. (I was all in on Molitor and I think I held out too long.)