Maeda, Mahle, Ober - Pick 2

[strumdatjag]

Tell me if I figured this out?  

In a logical world, the answer would be Ober at 4 and then flip a coin.

Instead, it looks like M & M and Ober goes to AAA or the pen.  

[chpettit19]

I think, in a logical world, it'd be Mahle 4, Maeda/Ober 5 as a piggyback. 

Ober isn't built up like any of the other starters yet. Putting him in the rotation puts us right back where we were with Archer and the 4 inning starts last year. I want no part of that even if it's 4 no hit innings every time out. Ober has topped 100 innings once in his professional career. Him slicing and dicing lineups 2 innings at a time in spring training shouldn't make us forget about the fact that he's simply not someone they can just put in the rotation and let go. I don't think they'll piggyback them, but that looks the most logical to me. Maeda and Ober take 8 or 9 innings every 5th day. But just handing Ober a rotation spot doesn't seem the least bit logical to me.

[Nashvilletwin]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think, in a logical world, it'd be Mahle 4, Maeda/Ober 5 as a piggyback. 

Ober isn't built up like any of the other starters yet. Putting him in the rotation puts us right back where we were with Archer and the 4 inning starts last year. I want no part of that even if it's 4 no hit innings every time out. Ober has topped 100 innings once in his professional career. Him slicing and dicing lineups 2 innings at a time in spring training shouldn't make us forget about the fact that he's simply not someone they can just put in the rotation and let go. I don't think they'll piggyback them, but that looks the most logical to me. Maeda and Ober take 8 or 9 innings every 5th day. But just handing Ober a rotation spot doesn't seem the least bit logical to me.

Maeda and Mahle certainly have been “built up” before, but I’m not sure either is right at this moment.  Mahle seems to be struggling and we’ve all thought that the Twins would be cautious early in the season with Maeda.

Your piggyback idea for #5 is a good one; however, if we went that direction, I’d start with Ober and then have Maeda relieve him.

The only correct answer is whichever two, based in their performances (not age, seniority, player ego, FO ego, etc.), give the Twins the best chance to win ballgames.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Maeda and Mahle certainly have been “built up” before, but I’m not sure either is right at this moment.  Mahle seems to be struggling and we’ve all thought that the Twins would be cautious early in the season with Maeda.

Your piggyback idea for #5 is a good one; however, if we went that direction, I’d start with Ober and then have Maeda relieve him.

The only correct answer is whichever two, based in their performances (not age, seniority, player ego, FO ego, etc.), give the Twins the best chance to win ballgames.

Mahle threw 80 pitches yesterday and topped out at 95. Maeda threw 75 on Sunday. They're built up to be able to go deep into games. Whether you think they'll be good enough to go deep into games without giving up runs is a different thing. They have the arm stamina to do it right now. Ober doesn't. That's my point. I don't believe Ober has cracked 50 pitches in an outing yet, but it's possible I missed one.

If they redo Maeda's contract it doesn't matter which order they put them in. But it'd be a real bad look for the org to piggyback them and not start Maeda who has millions of dollars tied into getting starts. I don't care what order they go in, but if you want to be able to get deals signed with incentives in them in the future you can't torpedo the player's ability to reach their incentives right out of the gate in a season.

And I think that's a highly debatable answer right now. Ober has looked great in short stints so far. But short starts don't help the Twins win games over the long-haul of the season. If Ober is on the opening day roster, Pagan is their most likely multi-inning reliever. Any of us want him getting a bunch of innings early because Ober can't throw more than 3 or 4 innings a start? Mahle's arm has looked completely fine, and he looked sharp to start yesterday, but lost some control as he went. Pretty normal for spring as he builds up. But not the most ideal situation. Maeda has looked rusty for sure. I think Mahle is an obvious answer for a rotation spot. The other 2 have real pluses and minuses right now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Mahle is a definite in this regard. I don't think he should be in the discussion to not be a part of this. Not even really close.

Ober has looked really good so far, in 2 inning stints. He has to show he can pitch a full year at some point to really be counted on.

Maeda has done it before, and I would imagine is on track to be good to go at some point. Coming back from tommy john is different for every pitcher. We'll see.

[Nashvilletwin]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But it'd be a real bad look for the org to piggyback them and not start Maeda who has millions of dollars tied into getting starts. I don't care what order they go in, but if you want to be able to get deals signed with incentives in them in the future you can't torpedo the player's ability to reach their incentives right out of the gate in a season.

At least we can all admit that factors other than putting the best team on the field are part of the equation.  However, we shouldn’t just limit it to our ability to attract FA’s; let’s make sure we include player, FO and coaching staff egos as well (among other things).

I’m wondering, how many wins are those factors worth in any given year?  

[Craig Arko]

Ober has an option; it will be used. If he stays stretched in St. Paul he’ll be ready when they call, and they will call.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

At least we can all admit that factors other than putting the best team on the field are part of the equation.  However, we shouldn’t just limit it to our ability to attract FA’s; let’s make sure we include player, FO and coaching staff egos as well (among other things).

I’m wondering, how many wins are those factors worth in any given year?  

Fans have the luxury of living in the now exclusively (if they choose). The players, FO, and coaching staffs don't. Ignoring all future ramifications for present success would get a FO fired pretty quick. And would end up making fans mad in the long run. There's a ton that go into these decisions. It's never going to be simply about any professional team fielding their best lineup on any given day, play, year. It's just not how it works. Even if it may be nice if it were.

[Nashvilletwin]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fans have the luxury of living in the now exclusively (if they choose). The players, FO, and coaching staffs don't. Ignoring all future ramifications for present success would get a FO fired pretty quick. And would end up making fans mad in the long run. There's a ton that go into these decisions. It's never going to be simply about any professional team fielding their best lineup on any given day, play, year. It's just not how it works. Even if it may be nice if it were.

Agree, a lot of factors must be weighed.  But as an owner and leader of several successful businesses in my life, the key was always applying purity of heart in making every business decision.  That one “test” generally encapsulated all of the factors to which you refer - and ego was the last box checked, if ever.

Don’t underestimate the desire for truly outstanding performers to want to be part of a culture committed to winning and which demands accountability from all stakeholders.  Btw, those are the FAs and coaches we want to attract.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I pick all three and either run a five man rotation with two of them piggy-backing in one start or just opt for a straight-up six-man rotation.

If forced to pick two, Mahle/Ober.

[chpettit19]

47 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree, a lot of factors must be weighed.  But as an owner and leader of several successful businesses in my life, the key was always applying purity of heart in making every business decision.  That one “test” generally encapsulated all of the factors to which you infer - and ego was the last box checked, if ever.

Don’t underestimate the desire for truly outstanding performers to want to be part of a culture committed to winning and which demands accountability from all stakeholders.  Btw, those are the FAs and coaches we want to attract.

I'm not trying to underestimate those performers. I think Correa is one of those performers. But I don't think his desire is to maximize the Twins wins in April (which I don't think Ober being in the rotation even does, by the way) at the expense of wins in June, or maximize their wins in 2023 at the expense of their wins in 2024-2030.

Taking all these other factors into account (incentives, minor league options, effect on rest of players by having player A start instead of player B, etc.) when making a decision about opening day roster isn't going against a "purity of heart" test of any kind. There are legitimate reasons why Ober shouldn't be handed a spot in a 5 man rotation that aren't some devious business strategy. Him not being able to top 50 pitches is a legitimate baseball reason to not have him in an opening day rotation.

That has nothing to do with ego (I'd argue there's very few people on the planet who's ego doesn't play a role in almost every decision they make even if it's subconscious) or anything like that. There's no reason to expect Bailey Ober to top 100 innings by much this year. Definitely can't expect him to top 120. Over 32 starts that'd be less than 4 innings a start. That is a legitimate baseball reason to not have him in your opening day rotation. I don't get why we should ignore that because he's dominated 6 innings in 3 spring training games.

[Vanimal46]

I would roll with a 6 man rotation on opening day and ramp up one of the relievers (Jeff Hoffman?) to pitch multiple innings. 4 out of the top 6 starters are coming off an injury of some kind last season. Why not ease them all in? 

[JD-TWINS]

IMO, it makes no sense to burn healthy Ober innings in St Paul. He’s not healthy often enough to do that……..none of our staff is healthy enough to do that. He has major league stuff - needs to be on big club.

Maeda can start games and can go 3-5 innings……..if there’s a jam, someone from Pen can come in & finish the inning. Ober then enters with a clean inning. He throws the rest of the game or at least through the 8th. Maybe a closer is used for a win. Piggyback.

They are both throwing 20 innings/month max. with this approach - fresh into August! Maybe one of them steps up/ahead between Opening Day and All-Star break.

With these two covering 7 plus innings - to 9 innings every 5th day, it allows for 7 relievers to work. It allows us to utilize our best talent on the mound - certainly Ober fits that description vs. whoever our 6th - 7th - 8th guy in the Pen might be!

Maybe, since Ober has only been throwing 2 innings per outing this spring, just maybe he’s our long reliever without being announced as such?

 

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I pick all three and either run a five man rotation with two of them piggy-backing in one start or just opt for a straight-up six-man rotation.

If forced to pick two, Mahle/Ober.

This

[D.C Twins]

50 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

At least we can all admit that factors other than putting the best team on the field are part of the equation.  However, we shouldn’t just limit it to our ability to attract FA’s; let’s make sure we include player, FO and coaching staff egos as well (among other things).

I’m wondering, how many wins are those factors worth in any given year?  

Just wanted to make sure everyone had to read this again because... well... THIS!

If you want to hit your incentives...perhaps....I don't know.... earn the playing time to get said incentives.... just a wild idea. 

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not trying to underestimate those performers. I think Correa is one of those performers. But I don't think his desire is to maximize the Twins wins in April (which I don't think Ober being on the roster even does, by the way) at the expense of wins in June, or maximize their wins in 2023 at the expense of their wins in 2024-2030.

Taking all these other factors into account (incentives, minor league options, effect on rest of players by having player A start instead of player B, etc.) when making a decision about opening day roster isn't going against a "purity of heart" test of any kind. There are legitimate reasons why Ober shouldn't be handed a spot in a 5 man rotation that aren't some devious business strategy. Him not being able to top 50 pitches is a legitimate baseball reason to not have him in an opening day rotation.

That has nothing to do with ego (I'd argue there's very few people on the planet who's ego doesn't play a role in almost every decision they make even if it's subconscious) or anything like that. There's no reason to expect Baily Ober to top 100 innings by much this year. Definitely can't expect him to top 120. Over 32 starts that'd be less than 4 innings a start. That is a legitimate baseball reason to not have him in your opening day rotation. I don't get why we should ignore that because he's dominated 6 innings in 3 spring training games.

Do you think the same things regarding being handed a starting spot aren’t essentially all the same for Maeda? I like both of them…..,don’t think Maeda getting rocked in Spring Training & walking 7 guys in 9 1/3 innings are great signals to hand him the ball every 5th day. High end velocity 89Mph - with not great control isn’t cool. BUT it’s Spring Training so maybe we need to cut him some slack?

Ober hasn’t thrown extended innings but apparently has been very effective.

Ober & Maeda are what they are & they aren’t going to morph into a traditional 6 inning, 105 pitch guy. Not before July. I think they both throw 3-4 plus innings & we piggyback them together. Ober has better stuff & would follow in mid-innings of Maeda’s starts. This fits each guy’s stamina at this point. Also, it essentially gives the Pen a rest day every 5th day. Allows for 7 man Pen.

Neither guy is going to start 32 times……(Lopez & Ryan) only a couple guys gave a chance to do that in ‘23.

 

[FlyingFinn]

Mahle and Maeda

[Muppet]

Ober's limited numbers look really good. But they are almost exclusively against very bad MLB teams and a small number of spring training innings. He's on the cusp, and if he doesn't fall apart he'll almost certainly be starting games with the Twins this year. Just not at the beginning of the year. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Do you think the same things regarding being handed a starting spot aren’t essentially all the same for Maeda? I like both of them…..,don’t think Maeda getting rocked in Spring Training & walking 7 guys in 9 1/3 innings are great signals to hand him the ball every 5th day. High end velocity 89Mph - with not great control isn’t cool. BUT it’s Spring Training so maybe we need to cut him some slack?

Ober hasn’t thrown extended innings but apparently has been very effective.

Ober & Maeda are what they are & they aren’t going to morph into a traditional 6 inning, 105 pitch guy. Not before July. I think they both throw 3-4 plus innings & we piggyback them together. Ober has better stuff & would follow in mid-innings of Maeda’s starts. This fits each guy’s stamina at this point. Also, it essentially gives the Pen a rest day every 5th day. Allows for 7 man Pen.

Neither guy is going to start 32 times……(Lopez & Ryan) only a couple guys gave a chance to do that in ‘23.

 

I think the concerns about them are very different right now. There's no inning limit on Maeda. Just performance. And I mentioned in one of my other comments that there's concern about that right now. There's not a physical reason to believe Maeda won't be a 6 inning, 105 pitch guy. He threw 75 on Sunday. He'll make at least 1 more spring appearance and I'd bet he tops 80 in that one. The concern for him is whether or not he can get his control back where it needs to be. That's very different than Ober not having topped 50 pitches yet, and only having topped 100 innings once in his career.

I'm all on board with the piggyback approach. It's how I'd do it. Limits Maeda's exposure early as he gets his command back, and limits Ober's innings since we know he can't hold up for a season. I don't bank on any starter making 32 starts any season. It's why I like their depth, and am not worried about Varland and SWR getting innings this year. They'll get plenty. My plan would be for Maeda to start every 5th day and go as deep as he can, through the 5th. Ober would be set to start a clean 6th inning every time. Then he goes as long as he can through the end of the game. Maybe have to use a reliever here or there with them, but significantly less than the other 4 spots in the rotation.

My thing with Ober is simply that people seem to be acting like he should just be plugged in like a regular starter. He's not even built up to 3 innings yet. I don't get the thought process behind just dropping him in and expecting him not to single handedly blow up the pen by having 3 inning starts for 2 weeks then 4 inning starts. Because if he's on the roster Hoffman isn't. Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Maeda, Mahle have spots. Duran, Alcala, Pagan (gross), Thielbar, Lopez, Jax, Moran have spots. Or at least I think they should (outside Pagan). That's 12 guys. There's only 1 more spot for Ober or Hoffman. Ober is better and I'd rather have him, but you can't put him in the rotation, in my opinion. Even a 6 man rotation of 5 guys going 6 innings and Ober going 4 would destroy that bullpen. Unless we really want Pagan getting a bunch of early innings. Ober simply can't be used as a starter if he's not topping 50 pitches yet.

[chpettit19]

44 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I would roll with a 6 man rotation on opening day and ramp up one of the relievers (Jeff Hoffman?) to pitch multiple innings. 4 out of the top 6 starters are coming off an injury of some kind last season. Why not ease them all in? 

If you're putting all 6 in the rotation, and Hoffman in the pen, are you sending Moran down? Just curious. I think we'd all vote that Pagan is just sent packing, but there seem to be 12 spots pretty well locked up with the last spot being a debate between Ober and someone like Hoffman. Who would your 13 be? With the handicap of having to carry Pagan. 

[Riverbrian]

It would be sad if I had to pick two out of the three because we would lose one of them in the process. 

Thankfully we don't have to. We get to keep all 3 of them. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Limiting Obers innings is what I've been saying since he was a rookie, last year. Since they didn't do it last year & he got injured early which limited his playing time, so he needs to be ramped up slower this season. Together with Mahle having a bum shoulder last season & seems to be inconsistent in ST so I question how many quality innings we can expect from him. Maeda, has been out for about 1 & half years due to TJ surgery and his biggest huddle is control. IMO I don't want him try to find himself while jeopardizing any regular season games. If he can't find himself before the regular season, I'd put him on the IL & have him find himself in AAA. After he finds his control, then we can place him in a  piggy back role.

With the Ober/ Maeda/ Mahle situation we find ourselves in a worse situation than we had with Ober/ Bundy/ Archer. Because with Ober/ Bundy/ Archer they gave us consistent quality innings, with Maeda/ Mahle we have inconsistency. The problem in '21 was Ober, Bundy & Archer weren't supported with long relief thus burning out our short relief. Then we over-stretched our rotation, which resulted in injuries & ineffectiveness. Our goal shouldn't be how far we can stretch our rotation but how many quality innings our pitching can give us. If a SP can give us 4 shut out innings, I say wonderful.

The idea of piggy-backing is you have an opener which gives you 3-5 quality innings. Then long relief comes in & pitches as long as he can 3-5 innings, saving the BP. Therefore saving the arms of the rotation & BP. Until Ober gets properly ramped up, Mahle finds consistency and Maeda find his control, I recommend use extensively 1 - 2 long RPs, 

[Vanimal46]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If you're putting all 6 in the rotation, and Hoffman in the pen, are you sending Moran down? Just curious. I think we'd all vote that Pagan is just sent packing, but there seem to be 12 spots pretty well locked up with the last spot being a debate between Ober and someone like Hoffman. Who would your 13 be? With the handicap of having to carry Pagan. 

The odd man out for me would be Alcala. That’s due to personal preference having 2 lefties in the pen. 

[CoasterProductions]

Mahle 4, Maeda 5, Ober Long Relief/#6 starter.

Tyler Mahle is a really good pitcher when he is on his game and that is why he is a definite starter in the rotation. I think Maeda is also pretty much certain even though I would rather have Ober start every 5 days over him. I think to start Ober will be in a long relief role. If we are in contention by September that is when he hits the rotation. If we make it to October I am starting him at full speed.

[Trov]

3 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Tell me if I figured this out?  

In a logical world, the answer would be Ober at 4 and then flip a coin.

Instead, it looks like M & M and Ober goes to AAA or the pen.  

If you go by just performance this spring, of course Ober gets the nod, but if you go by history both Mahle and Maeda deserve time in regular season.  Also, you forget that Ober has options, the other 2 do not, so it is have them on roster or cut them an pay them to play for someone else, or the pen.  

My guess, if Maeda starts to struggle out the gate, and Ober continues to crush in AAA, then Maeda gets moved to pen roll and Ober gets called up, hoping he stays healthy.  Also, if either Maeda or Mahle need to go on IL Ober is first up.  No team ever makes full season with just 5 starters, you need about 7 to 8 minimum to make starts through out a year. Ober will get plenty of chances. 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The odd man out for me would be Alcala. That’s due to personal preference having 2 lefties in the pen. 

Interesting. He wouldn't be anywhere near the bottom of my list, and definitely wouldn't send him down to get Ober's 3 or 4 inning starts into a 6 man rotation, but to each their own.

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Limiting Obers innings is what I've been saying since he was a rookie, last year. Since they didn't do it last year & he got injured early which limited his playing time, so he needs to be ramped up slower this season. Together with Mahle having a bum shoulder last season & seems to be inconsistent in ST so I question how many quality innings we can expect from him. Maeda, has been out for about 1 & half years due to TJ surgery and his biggest huddle is control. IMO I don't want him try to find himself while jeopardizing any regular season games. If he can't find himself before the regular season, I'd put him on the IL & have him find himself in AAA. After he finds his control, then we can place him in a  piggy back role.

With the Ober/ Maeda/ Mahle situation we find ourselves in a worse situation than we had with Ober/ Bundy/ Archer. Because with Ober/ Bundy/ Archer they gave us consistent quality innings, with Maeda/ Mahle we have inconsistency. The problem in '21 was Ober, Bundy & Archer weren't supported with long relief thus burning out our short relief. Then we over-stretched our rotation, which resulted in injuries & ineffectiveness. Our goal shouldn't be how far we can stretch our rotation but how many quality innings our pitching can give us. If a SP can give us 4 shut out innings, I say wonderful.

The idea of piggy-backing is you have an opener which gives you 3-5 quality innings. Then long relief comes in & pitches as long as he can 3-5 innings, saving the BP. Therefore saving the arms of the rotation & BP. Until Ober gets properly ramped up, Mahle finds consistency and Maeda find his control, I recommend use extensively 1 - 2 long RPs, 

Bundy and Archer were awful, I have no idea how that's better.

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Interesting. He wouldn't be anywhere near the bottom of my list, and definitely wouldn't send him down to get Ober's 3 or 4 inning starts into a 6 man rotation, but to each their own.

I think we know the real solution, but I am playing along with your request to keep Pagan. Regardless, the Twins need someone, whether that’s Hoffman, Moran, etc. to provide multiple innings of relief. Otherwise we’re making the same choice year after year to get on average 11 outs with 3+ relievers a game. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I think we know the real solution, but I am playing along with your request to keep Pagan. Regardless, the Twins need someone, whether that’s Hoffman, Moran, etc. to provide multiple innings of relief. Otherwise we’re making the same choice year after year to get on average 11 outs with 3+ relievers a game. 

Oh, we're definitely on the same page about the real solution. Only ones who seem to disagree happen to be the only ones that truly matter, unfortunately. 

I actually think Ober is the answer to the multiple inning idea. I have no problem with trying to keep him as a starter again this year, but the second he gets some little injury that ends up lasting 3 months he'd be moved to the pen for me. His talent is so high that it's so frustrating to see him unable to stay healthy. But it's a pretty substantial track record of bad health to this point. 50, two inning, dominant appearances a season isn't the worst situation ever, and it's a role I think he could fill.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

This

Maeda is no longer a number 2 to you?