What’s Happening With Pablo Lopez

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins remain engaged on all fronts this offseason, and while they didn’t make a move at the Winter Meetings, plenty of work was done. Knowing they want to bring back shortstop Carlos Correa, they have also keyed in on several pitchers. One of those is Miami Marlins hurler Pablo Lopez.

 

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

 

Earlier this week I reported that the Twins were in discussions with the Marlins regarding a trade that focused on Pablo Lopez. While Miami has taken Sandy Alcantara off of the table, they are definitely willing to move Lopez. According to multiple sources, there have been a handful of names discussed and any trade doesn’t appear to be trending toward a 1-for-1 swap.

Without going too deep into the rabbit hole of what may materialize, the biggest piece from the Twins has consistently been focused on Luis Arraez. Miami could use hitting help, and the American League batting champ would fit that bill. Also this week, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported that Arraez is certainly available for the right price. Minnesota has a very clear idea of what that is.

Before getting into what Lopez brings to the table, it’s worth considering what the Twins would be giving up in Arraez. At this point he’s a proven commodity that has also very-likely hit his ceiling. That’s not to say the production won’t continue, but his tools don’t project to unveil some new skill we haven’t already seen. He’s a limited defender who is best served not being on his feet every day. At the plate, he’s nearly impossible to strike out, and he’ll generate a high average while showing the occasional pop. All of that is a very valuable player. It certainly will not get anything near a number one or an ace-type pitcher.

There are real questions about how Arraez’s knees will hold up as he ages. Each of the past two seasons he has had injury issues, and he limped towards the finish line in 2022 while battling the nagging injury. He’s a fine, albeit odd, fit at first base. Without much power, he loses significant value if the average ever drops down into the .280 range, and while his on-base prowess will always matter, he doesn’t slug enough to profile as a traditional corner infielder.

Where does that leave the Marlins? Well, at Pablo Lopez.

The Twins goal for the rotation should be to find someone at the level of Sonny Gray or better. Whether you believe Lopez is that guy or not is debatable, but there’s reasons to suggest he is. Lopez owns a 3.52 ERA the past three seasons, and is coming off a year in which he threw 180 innings. His 3.48 FIP suggests there’s no real worry for regression, and he’s been a guy who can average more than a strikeout per inning pitched.

Lopez possesses mid-90’s velocity which should continue to be workable for a guy that is only 26 years old, and his changeup has often proven to be a significant weapon. He posted a career best 12.7% whiff rate last season, and gave up hard contact a career-low 27.5% of the time. Steamer projections have him at a 3.74 ERA and a 2.8 fWAR for 2023, which would be a repeat of his fWAR this season and would’ve been Minnesota’s pitching leader.

It’s not possible to acquire Lopez in a one-for-one swap with Arraez, and with starting pitching so expensive, having the arm under team control through 2024 would be a big get. It remains to be seen if any version of this deal crosses the finish line, but as much as Minnesota would like Carlos Rodon, other avenues may need to be explored.

 

 

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[EGFTShaw]

I don’t make the Arraez for Lopez deal. 
 

i like Pablo Lopez but just not for Luis Arraez

[ashbury]

20 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

I don’t make the Arraez for Lopez deal.

Neither do the Marlins.

[JoeCool]

We should not trade Araez. He is a rare hitter and ironically became serviceable at 1st base. Right around leave average for fielding. With today’s power potential at 2nd, SS, and 3rd I don’t see a need for a power hitter at 1st. Especially with Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Edouard Julien on the way there is plenty of power hitting potential growth in them. I think are starting pitching core that is here or coming also suggest we should not give up such a talent at the plate. 
 

Let’s get a free agent starter and keep our best hitter. 

[rv78]

Makes sense for the Twins to trade away their best hitter. He doesn't fit their desire of the all or nothing HomeRun/Strikeout hitters that they prefer. If possible I see them bringing back Sano to play 1B especially if Arraez is traded. At this point, if they trade away Arraez, then let Correa and/or Rodon go elsewhere I'm going to seriously consider boycotting this team until they get a new FO and Manager. 

[Ryan_K]

Why not try a Larnach Ober package for Woodruff. He'd be an upgrade, Lopez is like Bassit good but not for Luis. Some say he isn't worth an Ace, then if he doesn't have that value move prospects.

Lopez is also similar to Gray, who we traded Petty for I. e. a mid 20s draft pick, are you trading Luis for a mid 20s draft pick? 

[Brandon]

Arreaz is elite at getting on base.  There are not many .380+ OBP guys out there.  The new rule changes are designed to help guys like him.  Also offense is a bigger hole then pitching at the moment.  I don’t know how much of an improvement Lopez would be over Ober/Winder/SWR/Varland.  I mean he is an improvement.  But compare a .380 OBP to a .310 OBP.  Which is the bigger gain?  I guess having Lopez helps protect 2024 rotation since we have 3 or 4 free agent starters next offseason. On the other hand Rooting for Arreaz is fun.  His skill set is unique and reminiscent of Carew.  This trade scenario is gonna make my head explode I love/hate it at the same time.

[tony&rodney]

Miami needs to add a bat or two and Arraez would be a strong addition to their team. I can see both teams wanting to widen the trade to protect against a poor outcome. Miami may want a near ready young pitcher and a couple of other bats while the Twins may want a young pitcher and a minor league prospect. Totally shooting from the hip - Arraez, Larnach, Winder, and Martin for Lopez, Cabrera, and Mack. Seems somewhat reasonable. 

Does the Correa/Boras camp wait for Falvey to make a move to improve the Twins before making their decision? Nah.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd sooner use Arraez differently, but I can see the reasoning behind  trading Arraez + someone else for Lopez.

[mickster]

Arreaz and Kepler for Lopez would hurt as both hitters will benefit from the shift ban, more so Kepler.   However pitching is needed and it will hurt to acquire it.   

[Ted Schwerzler]

20 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

I don’t make the Arraez for Lopez deal. 
 

i like Pablo Lopez but just not for Luis Arraez

It isn’t happening in a one for one. Unfortunately Arraez doesn’t have the trade capital we may like to think here

[Ted Schwerzler]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Totally shooting from the hip - Arraez, Larnach, Winder, and Martin for Lopez, Cabrera, and Mack.

As it was originally constructed, the prospect names are further away than that, but there’s one I’d like to keep out at all costs.

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

As it was originally constructed, the prospect names are further away than that, but there’s one I’d like to keep out at all costs.

On second thought Mack is not likely. If I could only hold one player out of trade talks it would be Emmanuel Rodriguez.

[Whitey333]

Twins need pitching and catching.  Everyone mentions Winder,  Ober, Richardson, etal like they are shoo ins.  The have not proven much of anything yet IMO.  With all the negative stats and projected future results, why would anyone want Arraez?  I like him.  You don't trade a batting champion without getting something good and someone who can help immediately.  IMO the Twins FO has not the greatest track record on trades.  Be careful.  They are all intent on signing Correa.  But why?  They will not have a very good team around him.  Makes no sense to spend that kind of money, albeit a superstar, on one player with so many holes to fill.

[Minny505]

On 12/11/2022 at 8:08 AM, Ted Schwerzler said:

It isn’t happening in a one for one. Unfortunately Arraez doesn’t have the trade capital we may like to think here

I guess I don't understand this.

Rizzo and Abreu are comparable 1B to Arraez, but are much older. They both just signed contracts to use as a framework for an Arraez deal on the FA market.

Taillon and Walker are comparable SP to Lopez, but are much older. They both just signed contracts to use as a framework for a Lopez deal on the FA market.

Arraez probably gets roughly 5/95, while Lopez probably get something around 5/100, using those frameworks. They are about as comparable of players in value as you will find on opposite sides of the ball. 

Arraez comes with 3 years of below-market-value control, while Lopez comes with 2 years of below-market-value control.

SPs, and pitchers as a position at large, generally carry a trade capital premium at the trade deadline that they do not carry with them in the FA market, but I have not noticed this trend during the offseason. Do SPs always have this trade capital premium that they do not carry with them in FA?

I'll admit to not understanding trade value as well as FA value. It is more nebulous by nature. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think tony&rodney is on the right track for a possible Lopez trade.  According to BTV Arraez 19.7 straight up wouldn't be enough for Lopez 38.7.  You'd need to add Larnach 11.9 and Winder 8.4 to get to about 39.  That would be in the ballpark.  Lopez is just 26 y/o.  He's got a proven track record with room to improve.  I think I'd do it.