Twins Tidbit: Assessing the In-House Bullpen Options

[TwinsData]

With the trade deadline in less than a month, the Twins will be out looking for bullpen help in the trade market. But they can only acquire so many new arms. Some of the in-house options will have to fill important roles down the stretch. Who should they turn to?

The chart above lists the current options in the Twins bullpen ranked from top to bottom by their measures in three underlying statistics: strike percentage, whiff rate (the fraction of swings that are misses), and average exit velocity. Red circles are good, blue circles are not so good.

There's a simple rule of thumb for reading these statistics. A pitcher ought to have strong measures in two of the three statistics to be effective. For example, Jhoan Duran can give up hard contact as shown by his team-average exit velocity. But he pounds the strike zone and hitters rarely catch up to him. That's effective.

Using similar assessments, the Twins ought to carve out roles for Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax. Jovani Moran may prove to be a bit of a wild card. He has a team-high 38% whiff rate and limits hard contact. If he can keep the ball in the strike zone often enough to avoid costly walks, he would prove valuable. Danny Coulombe may also warrant another shot when he returns to full health.

What about Emilio Pagán, Tyler Duffey, and Joe Smith? Have they simply gotten unlucky in big moments despite pitching well? Not exactly. Pagán gets hit harder than any other Twins reliever and doesn't miss bats often enough to hide that. Duffey's numbers paint him as a poor man's Pagán. Smith has a paltry 13% whiff rate, which means he rarely misses bats. That's a big problem since his exit velocities are also quite high.

The Twins will surely add to their bullpen through trades. But they can also get more out of their bullpen by redefining roles, tweaking pitcher usage, and perhaps letting go of a few veterans.

 

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[mikelink45]

One problem for the Twins is that every team is now limiting their starters and thus relying on more RP.  So the number of RP is spread out through the league and trading for them is more difficult.  MLB has created its own problem.  When pitchers like Spahn, Marichal, Verlander, Carlton, Morris were in the rotation the need for RP was limited and thus a team could get by with 2 - 3 quality RP.  Now we have 6 starters and 7 relievers and need three - four RP per game.  Math is not my strong suit, but I believe the crash is apparent.  So we continue to bring up AAA and AAAA arms and expect them to be quality arms. 

No, there needs to be another strategy and it is not the stupid opener - it is long relief, 8 SP, three of which are there to come in and give us 3 - 4 innings at a time, a rotation of these arms like the SP rotation. 

Very few RP are high quality and so every team anguishes over this.

[4twinsJA]

My eight on the present roster are; Duran as primary closer, like Theilbar and Moran as LH options, Jax and Pagan in medium leverage positions, Duffey and Megill in low leverage opportunities, Winder as long relief. That leaves Minaya, Smith, Cano, Cotton, and Coulombe on the outside looking in. Really need a solid set up man, second closer type, hoping for at least one addition before trade deadline. 

[ashbury]

I'd be curious to see these charts broken out by lefty-righty batter matchups.  Thielbar for instance I'd expect to have a massive split.

Also, since these are percentages, understanding might be aided by having the number of pitches thrown be provided in the table for reference - small sample size for some of these arms seems a pitfall.

[MABB1959]

Twins seem to be in lower BP salaries.  They need to pay to play.  I think this year is a perfect year to spend $$ on high quality BP pitchers.  For goodness sakes we don't really even have a closer>

[PatPfund]

Here is the problem with 'data' driven discussions. You line up a series of stats and percentages in neat columns, and add some color coding along with a 'clear rule of thumb'.

And it MEANS NOTHING out of context. 

By these columns, you would think Thielbar is one of the key members, maybe THE key member of the bullpen, which, frankly, is all you need to condemn this analysis.

In the real world these comparative percentages are not comparable at all since Duran is routinely faced with the opposition's best hitters, while Thielbar faces curated matchups, and often fails at them (like facing the bottom of the order last week, and filling the bases with not outs, or filling them and giving up a grand slam). His ERA has been over 5 since April, opponents have an on-base percentage of .323 against him, he strikes out about 10% of those he faces, and his WAR says he is a half game WORSE than a AAA replacement.  Duran (again, against elite opponents) has an ERA of 2.00, opponents bat .195 against him with an OBA of .243,, Jhoan strikes out 34% of those he faces, and his WAR is 1.5.

For those who have followed the Twins this year, which set of comparative stats paints a more accurate picture as you see it?

The OP is not wrong in needing to assess in-house options, but hopefully a more rigorous assessment is running in the Twins' organization. (Caleb should be closer to getting bounced than to consistent high leverage situations.)

[Jack Griffin]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I'd be curious to see these charts broken out by lefty-righty batter matchups.  Thielbar for instance I'd expect to have a massive split.

Also, since these are percentages, understanding might be aided by having the number of pitches thrown be provided in the table for reference - small sample size for some of these arms seems a pitfall.

Yep. Pretty massive difference.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Jack Griffin said:

Yep. Pretty massive difference.

Difference in results yes.  I'm curious to see how this reflects in the color chart.

[Game7-91]

4 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

.  I think this year is a perfect year to spend $$ on high quality BP pitchers. 

Agreed, his name is Taylor Rogers, for whatever reason, we did not feel the urgency to spend and extend his contract, or, if not extending, let him pitch his final year here, because we were going to contend this year, right?, and gee whiz, wouldnt it be great to have elite-level back-end guy on an expiring contract with all the motivation that comes with it anchoring the 9th along with Duran. But NNOOOO, we didnt need him...lets get a guy on the cusp of TJ#2 and a DFA quality guy to lose some games at the back end of the pen.

Sheesh . Now we will pay that cost in prospects, and hope we land someone who can approximate Rogers' production and value. Whiplash-syndrome in a big way. I just hope FO can next year figure what direction they're going and make a friggin' plan.

Thanks, I feel better now.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Agreed, his name is Taylor Rogers, for whatever reason, we did not feel the urgency to spend and extend his contract

Remember when we were assured that the enhanced revenue stream Target Field would provide would allow the team to sign and keep their home-grown players?

[tony&rodney]

Yes, the Twins do need to add a couple of arms for their bullpen, either from their own system or via trade(s). The Twins lost Rogers in a real head shaker of a move and I was super critical at the time. I have moved on and there isn't any more time to look back. Falvey must look forward and find a way to help this team in 2022.

[terrydactyls]

Two comments.

1.  Rogers is gone.  Get over it.

2.  Minaya has been DFA'd so remove him from the charts.

That being said - trade for two or three relief pitchers and let's see where the Twins end up.

[Seansy]

I think this analysis requires more columns for more categories. Perhaps BB% and some other ones. Strike % is fine but can be misleading as some players throw less strikes but give up fewer walks than other players that throw more strikes.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I'd like to see Moran increasingly be entrusted with higher leverage roles.

[old nurse]

The difficulty in bringing pitchers from outside the organization can be found by perusing the rosters of teams that are likely out of the playoffs, The prearb relievers are going to cost an arm and a bat. Some of the rental type relievers who are having good years have already been cycled trough here. There is a reason why some of these teams are that bad. Lots of reasons. Bullpens are one of them. 

Does a reliever with an ERA of between 3.5 and 4 really move the needle that far. They also have blown many games along the way