Twins Tidbit: Assessing the In-House Bullpen Options

My eight on the present roster are; Duran as primary closer, like Theilbar and Moran as LH options, Jax and Pagan in medium leverage positions, Duffey and Megill in low leverage opportunities, Winder as long relief. That leaves Minaya, Smith, Cano, Cotton, and Coulombe on the outside looking in. Really need a solid set up man, second closer type, hoping for at least one addition before trade deadline. 

I'd be curious to see these charts broken out by lefty-righty batter matchups.  Thielbar for instance I'd expect to have a massive split.

Also, since these are percentages, understanding might be aided by having the number of pitches thrown be provided in the table for reference - small sample size for some of these arms seems a pitfall.

Here is the problem with 'data' driven discussions. You line up a series of stats and percentages in neat columns, and add some color coding along with a 'clear rule of thumb'.

And it MEANS NOTHING out of context. 

By these columns, you would think Thielbar is one of the key members, maybe THE key member of the bullpen, which, frankly, is all you need to condemn this analysis.

In the real world these comparative percentages are not comparable at all since Duran is routinely faced with the opposition's best hitters, while Thielbar faces curated matchups, and often fails at them (like facing the bottom of the order last week, and filling the bases with not outs, or filling them and giving up a grand slam). His ERA has been over 5 since April, opponents have an on-base percentage of .323 against him, he strikes out about 10% of those he faces, and his WAR says he is a half game WORSE than a AAA replacement.  Duran (again, against elite opponents) has an ERA of 2.00, opponents bat .195 against him with an OBA of .243,, Jhoan strikes out 34% of those he faces, and his WAR is 1.5.

For those who have followed the Twins this year, which set of comparative stats paints a more accurate picture as you see it?

The OP is not wrong in needing to assess in-house options, but hopefully a more rigorous assessment is running in the Twins' organization. (Caleb should be closer to getting bounced than to consistent high leverage situations.)

1 hour ago, Jack Griffin said:

Yep. Pretty massive difference.

Difference in results yes.  I'm curious to see how this reflects in the color chart.

2 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Agreed, his name is Taylor Rogers, for whatever reason, we did not feel the urgency to spend and extend his contract

Remember when we were assured that the enhanced revenue stream Target Field would provide would allow the team to sign and keep their home-grown players?