Why Trouble Could Lie Ahead for One Key Twins Reliever

[Cody Christie]

Emilio Pagán was brought back as part of the Taylor Rogers trade to give the Twins a late-inning bullpen option. Unfortunately, some signs and projection systems point to him being a potential bullpen bust. Are they right?

Pagán is entering his age-31 season, and he has bounced around MLB over the last six seasons. His first two seasons were in AL West as he pitched in relief for Seattle and Oakland. In 112 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.85 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. Tampa Bay added him for the 2019 season, and he posted career-bests in nearly every statistical category, including 20 saves. Like many relievers, the Rays were able to get the best out of him before shipping him away. 

His time in San Diego pointed to a few concerning trends as he posted a 4.75 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings. In Tampa, he was able to keep the ball in the park, avoid hard contact, and miss enough bats to be effective. There's a reason the Padres were looking for a different late-inning reliever, and Minnesota is searching for the 2019 version of Pagán. 

During the 2021 season, there were plenty of things that went wrong in San Diego, and Pagán may have played a role in the team's downfall. His Hard Hit % and Barrel % ranked in the 7th percentile or lower, which resulted in him allowing one of baseball's worst average exit velocities. Batters posted a .538 SLG against his fastball last season, so changing his pitch mix may be something the Twins examine with him. 

Giving up that much hard contact also results in more home runs. Last season, he posted a career-worst 2.3 HR/9 after posting a 1.6 HR/9 for his career. His 13 home runs allowed in 2021 may have been higher had he not been pitching with San Diego's spacious outfield behind him. Home run rates can be unstable, especially for relievers, but it will be something to watch this season. 

Another concern from 2021 was his lack of first-pitch strikes, which tends to increase a pitcher's walk rate. Last season, he posted a 2.6 BB/9, which was slightly above his 2.3 BB/9 for his career. Many projection systems viewed his walk rate as an area of concern for the 2022 campaign. If a reliever can't throw first-pitch strikes, there is a good chance he will allow more base runners, which is a recipe for disaster. 

FanGraphs’s ZiPs projection identified Pagán as a potential bust candidate. According to them, “A bust is a player who will step down a tier in performance or who is in a down cycle and has passed the window to get back to what they used to be. None of the players involved are literally without value, and some of them are still really good.“ There is still an opportunity for Pagán to provide value to the Twins this season.

In limited action this season, the Twins have already attempted to make some changes with Pagán. His fastball usage has decreased while his cutter has stayed the same. So, what's the most significant change? For the first time in his career, he is using a split-finger pitch. Relievers tend to have such a small sample size throughout a season, but it will be interesting to see his success in adding this pitch to his repertoire. 

Even with some struggles last season, Pagán showcased some strong areas on which the Twins can capitalize. His fastball spin ranked in the 91st percentile, even with MLB cracking down on the use of sticky substances. His Whiff% ranked in the 74th percentile, his K% ranked in the 67th percentile, and his xBA ranked in the 65th percentile. If Minnesota trusts Pagán in late-inning situations, he needs to continue to improve in these areas. 

Do you think Pagán is destined to be a bust this season, or do you think he can be a reliable option in the back of the Twins' bullpen? Leave a COMMENT and join the discussion. 

 

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[tony&rodney]

Pagan is mostly an asterisk. The Twins have incredible confidence in their assessment that Chris Paddock will be the real deal (J.D. Durbin). Paddack was a strong prospect in the same vein as Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, and Lewis Thorpe. Paddack, unlike the others, had a little success in The Show, so the love for him. Emilio Pagan was part of the price extracted to win the Paddack sweepstakes (TR to SD, $6.6 to SD, $2.3 for EP, & $2.25 for CP). The Twins won't keep Pagan past this year and his usage will depend on having some success. We shouldn't be surprised if ZIPs is fairly accurate but relief pitchers can also have short runs where they find their groove and the Twins are hoping for a few good outings from Pagan. Pagan is likely happy enough to be on the roster. He was destined for release by San Diego. Let us hope the new pitches work.

[Dman]

Pagan was more of a throw in type veteran replacement for Rogers than a real solution IMO.  We all knew he was headed in the wrong direction sans the trade and yet given the state of our pen he looks like one of the few arms trusted in high leverage situations.  So I am hoping the Twins can find something to make sure he can be a solution and not another problem.

[wsnydes]

I see this as a two part question.  Can he be a reliable option in the backend of the bullpen?  I'm not convinced either way.  Perhaps the bigger question is this though; are there better, more reliable options there?  I don't know that there are.  At least right now.  So, it's sort of a case of he's basically got to be one way or another until Rocco is able to find someone that is.  And they need more than just one reliable arm for late game situations, so it becomes a circular argument.

Not a confidence instilling scenario.  

[ashbury]

I'm not as down on Pagan as Szymborski is, but the ceiling is effective middle innings reliever, I expect.  He has the experience, and presumably the make up, to set up or close, but not the chops.  There will be late inning disasters if he is overexposed.

[mikelink45]

Neither pitcher instills the confidence that Rogers did. Rogers by the way has five innings, five saves, no runs allowed, 5 Ks, and a whip of 0.400

[wavedog]

Well, something to look forward to - another bullpen arm potential bust.  Let me ask a question  - Is there a bullpen arm we have that is not a potential bust?   Hopefully he channels some suggested changes and pieces together a nice season for the Twins this year and he can move on and be a bust for the White Sox next season.     

[Linus]

Pagan is not an elite reliever but that wasn’t the expectation. I couldn’t care less about zips projections especially for relievers. So far he has been better than just about the entirety of our bullpen. 

[jorgenswest]

They might be able to utilize Pagán situationally. He is not a pitcher you want to bring in with runners on base. He is too home run prone. If they can find situations where he starts innings and has a good match up he could give them some good work this year.

[Rosterman]

Well, the second coming of Colome (Pagan), Robles (Smith), Farrell (Romero), Waddell (Cotton). And another cast of characters that will make us still remember we trotted out Law, Barraclough, Gibaut, , Vincent, garcia, Burrows, Garza and Anderson, amongst others.

 

I imagine the Twins will make a couple of hard decisions come May 1, but will still stick with Duffey and others because they are paying them and hope they turn around and become, if nothing ese, tradebait if the team tanks.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I've heard that San Diego doesn't know how to develop pitching. There's a chance that Pagan & Paddack could improve with MN but the time to do that is before ST not after. So now they have to try to do it on the fly.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've heard that San Diego doesn't know how to develop pitching.

Just curious .... What have you heard about the Twins ability to develop pitching?

[old nurse]

What was his Zips prediction for last year after having a great year the year before?

[Blyleven2011]

Only time will tell   ....

Right now he looks good in the bullpen  , 

If the manager and FO would give the pitchers a definite roll or title  a pitcher might have better success  and try harder  to move up to a better title ...

 

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Just curious .... What have you heard about the Twins ability to develop pitching?

Only what everybody else has heard, that Wes Johnson can add add a few ticks on the FB, can improve a certain slider, refine pitch selection  and they have the analytic machines. What's your point? because this is an obvious answer?

Again, Paddack specialty is the cutter I believe. I don't know what's in the Twins head in how to fix his problems.

[Doctor Gast]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Only what everybody else has heard, that Wes Johnson can add add a few ticks on the FB, can improve a certain slider, refine pitch selection  and they have the analytic machines. What's your point? because this is an obvious answer?

Again, Paddack specialty is the cutter I believe. I don't know what's in the Twins head in how to fix his problems.

How Paddack has been pitching maybe all he needed was a good INF.

[tony&rodney]

47 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

What's your point? because this is an obvious answer?

Well, on Twins Daily there is much talk about the Twins developing pitching and I know they are trying to do that. There are also many mentions about the success of Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and a couple of others in their development of pitchers. I thought maybe you had read a few comments from scouts from other organizations or a host of comments on other teams fan sites that are similar to TD. I have sifted through various sites from many teams and have never once read a comment that mentions the Twins and their ability to develop pitching. I was just curious where you had seen articles regarding the Twins ability to develop pitching from outside Twins fandom. 

[Doctor Gast]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, on Twins Daily there is much talk about the Twins developing pitching and I know they are trying to do that. There are also many mentions about the success of Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and a couple of others in their development of pitchers. I thought maybe you had read a few comments from scouts from other organizations or a host of comments on other teams fan sites that are similar to TD. I have sifted through various sites from many teams and have never once read a comment that mentions the Twins and their ability to develop pitching. I was just curious where you had seen articles regarding the Twins ability to develop pitching from outside Twins fandom. 

I see what you mean. The Twins have helped some veterans that have passed through the organization but as bringing up & developing young prospects they seem to lag behind. Nothing of yet to compare with CLE, TB or LAD. These teams seems to produce & fill out their rotations with aces. Berrios comes the closest but they traded him. Is this a trend?