How Have the Twins Fared in Previous Top-100 Prospect Trades?

[Cody Christie]

Throughout the history of the Minnesota Twins, there have been few trades of top prospects in the organization. Minnesota has been forced to build from within and this has meant teams have been required to live and die through prospect development. Brusdar Graterol was clearly a top-100 prospect so how have the Twins done when trading away, or for other top prospects?Wilson Ramos

Many fans will be upset when mentioning the Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps trade. Ramos was a top-65 prospect by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. He recorded seven hits in his first two professional games, and it seemed like he could team up with Joe Mauer as a tremendous catching duo.

 

Having Mauer still behind the plate made a catching prospect more expendable. Minnesota also needed more relief help during the 2010 campaign. If Capps had helped the Twins to an extended playoff run, his trade might have been forgotten. Instead, Twins fans watched Ramos blossom into an All-Star catcher with the Nationals and Rays.

 

WAR Acquired: 0.9 WAR (Before Capps Resigned)

WAR Lost: 10.4 WAR

 

Matt Garza

Trading Matt Garza for Delmon Young seemed like a perfect fit for both teams at the time with each player being a highly ranked prospect. Tampa needed more pitching to help them take the next step and Young provided a powerful right-handed bat between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the Twins line-up. Tampa would ride Garza to a World Series run, while the Twins made playoff appearances but Young was never a difference maker.

 

Young, a former number one overall pick, finished second in the 2007 Rookie of the Year voting. After joining Minnesota, he hit .287/.324/.429 (.753) but his bat never reached the potential he showed as a prospect and his defense was atrocious. Garza was the ALCS MVP and provided WAR totals of 3.4 or above in two of his three seasons in Tampa.

 

WAR Acquired: 1.0 WAR

WAR Lost: 8.5 WAR

 

Alex Meyer and Trevor May

These two trades seemed to get lumped together since they happened in the same off-season. With both trades above, the Twins were sending away top-100 prospects, but these trades were a little different. Minnesota dealt established outfielders Denard Span and Ben Revere in exchange for pitching prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May along with Vance Worley.

 

Meyer struggled as he moved through the upper levels on the minor leagues and he would only pitch in parts of four seasons in the organization. Eventually, he was traded to the Angels before injuries ended his career. He played 22 games at the big-league level and retired after his age-27 season.

 

When trading for May, the Twins likely saw him as a starting pitching prospect, but he has found his niche in the Twins bullpen. Last season, he posted a sub-3.00 ERA while striking out 79 batters in 64 1/3 innings. He can be a free agent at season’s end so he will have plenty to pitch for during the 2020 campaign.

 

WAR Acquired: -0.6 (Meyer), 2.0 (May), and -1.1 (Worley)

WAR Lost: 7.0 (Span) and 4.1 (Revere)

 

How did the Twins fare in these trades involving former top-100 prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[TL]

That’s ugly

[AceWrigley]

Not very encouraging. When I hear, "Wilson Ramos", I feel like Moe of the 3 stooges in the Niagara Falls routine.

[Danchat]

Well, the previous regimes sure didn't do well, but we're in a new era of management here. I wouldn't expect similar outcomes.

 

It's pretty crazy to me that the Revere trade happened so long ago, yet we still have control of May that originates from that deal.

[old nurse]

Having played a full season Young was not a prospect.

 

Gomez, Humber and Guerra were all top 100 prospects

 

Liriano and Bonser had been a top 100 prospect and had fallen out of the top 100 prior to the Twins trading for them. Natahan was not ranked

If anything it shows that top 100 prospect lists do not mean much.

[D.C Twins]

Yikes....I just threw up in my mouth a little bit....

 

Nice idea though and great article!

[mikelink45]

I loved that review.  Thanks for the work.  I think that we can only come to one conclusion in this summary.  We lost.  Now we have to hope we have turned a corner and have better judgment - the evaluation is years away.

[Brandon]

What about the Denny Neagle for Jon Smiley trade and Viola for West, Drummond ,Savage, Tapani, and Aguilera? I don't know if Neagle was too 100.... But West was the highest ranked pitcher in the Viola trade.

[Brandon]

Also there is the Gonsalves and Stewart for nothing as well

[old nurse]

 

Also there is the Gonsalves and Stewart for nothing as well

Proves my point that top 100 doesn't mean much. Somebody could prove me a Dofus, but I don't think so.

[bobs]

  Any trade involving prospects is a bit of a crapshoot one way or the other.   I have a lot of faith in this FO. They are smart baseball men.  We'll have wait to see how the Graterol/Maeda trade works out.  Clearly dropping Nick Anderson from the 40-man was a mistake.  Trading Pressley hasn't worked out.

[howieramone2]

It's a matter of time until we win the Pressly trade. Just to be consistent, let's remember to judge the Graterol trade less than a year later. Also, Nick Anderson is Falvey's David Ortiz.

[joemama]

 

It's a matter of time until we win the Pressly trade. Just to be consistent, let's remember to judge the Graterol trade less than a year later. Also, Nick Anderson is Falvey's David Ortiz.

Agree on your comment on the Pressley trade, but Nick Anderson is far from being Falvey's David Ortiz. Anderson has had one good year. That's like comparing Dan Quayle to Jack Kennedy.

[h2oface]

Exactly. Thanks for the article. Folks really like to shine it up when the deal is made, and those that hate the trades are spoken of as "negative". Prophetic would be more like it.

[Danchat]

 

  Any trade involving prospects is a bit of a crapshoot one way or the other.   I have a lot of faith in this FO. They are smart baseball men.  We'll have wait to see how the Graterol/Maeda trade works out.  Clearly dropping Nick Anderson from the 40-man was a mistake.  Trading Pressley hasn't worked out.

Anderson was never on the 40 man.

 

Hard to say if the Pressly move will pan out, we haven't even gotten a good look at the two guys we got for him at the highest level. It wasn't a good move for the 2019 season, but we weren't advancing any further in the playoffs with him on our roster.

[AceWrigley]

 

Proves my point that top 100 doesn't mean much. Somebody could prove me a Dofus, but I don't think so.

You misspelled doofus.

[AceWrigley]

 

Agree on your comment on the Pressley trade, but Nick Anderson is far from being Falvey's David Ortiz. Anderson has had one good year. That's like comparing Dan Quayle to Jack Kennedy.

What team did this Jack Kennedy play for?

[Dantes929]

Aaron Hicks?

[ND-Fan]

That is problem when trading away proven talent and position prospects for pitching. Pitching prospects or young pitching is a very risky business so many things can go wrong with pitchers. I always feel when teams are willing to trade pitchers there's something wrong with them or they wouldn't trade them. Even signing free agent pitchers is risky business only hit there on 50% basis usually. I still think you need to develop your own pitching but it requires a big checkbook to sign a lot of talent and hopefully you hit once a while.

[old nurse]

 

You misspelled doofus.

Intentional because sometimes things get missed unless there is something that draws attention to it.

[Doctor Gast]

 

Aaron Hicks?

Yes, Aaron Hicks is another one w/ great potential that they gave up on which they traded just for the sake to trade, we got nothing for him. I don`t pretend that I know more than the experts but I wonder sometimes that sometimes those who are close to these players & see their warts, they magnifies those warts so that`s  all they see. At the same see a possible need & another team`s player that possible could fill that need, they then magnify their talents & not see their warts. Therefore making a terrible trade. So I suggest that any trade they somehow get some outside eyes

[miracleb]

Intentional my arse.....what a doooofus.  LOL!

[Tomj14]

 

Yes, Aaron Hicks is another one w/ great potential that they gave up on which they traded just for the sake to trade, we got nothing for him. I don`t pretend that I know more than the experts but I wonder sometimes that sometimes those who are close to these players & see their warts, they magnifies those warts so that`s it`s all they see. At the same see a possible need & another team`s player that possible could fill that need, they then magnify their talents & not see their warts. Therefore making a terrible trade. So I suggest that any trade they somehow get some outside eyes

Lets not forget that Hicks has only played 407 games in the last 4 years, and was terrible his first year in New York (which was 123 of those 407 games)
 

[Ruven]

This short list of mostly failed trades excludes long-view deals where the players acquired eventually wind up in the Top 100. That long-view list could (eventually, if not already) include the Pressly and Escobar deals.

[Aerodeliria]

I never liked losing Denard Span. Never!

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, Trevor May was a top 100 prospect the offseason *before* we acquired him -- he had a pretty mediocre year at AA for the Phillies in 2012 which knocked him off lists.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What about the Denny Neagle for Jon Smiley trade and Viola for West, Drummond ,Savage, Tapani, and Aguilera? I don't know if Neagle was too 100.... But West was the highest ranked pitcher in the Viola trade.

It appears Neagle was never a top 100 prospect. Baseball Reference has the BA lists going to back to 1990, reflected on their minor league player pages, and it shows nothing for Neagle:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=neagle001den

 

Someone compiled the BA lists into a spreadsheet here too, no Neagle:

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApDc5PGsBzgVdDRwRU9PMXp3MV9mMERXek16N0s4WHc&hl=en

 

For West, unfortunately I don't think BA's top 100 list existed before 1990 and West was ineligible by then. He was #2 on the Mets list in 1989, though, behind only Gregg Jeffries, so I suspect he could have done well in a top 100 list that year.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/1983-2000-top-10-prospects-rankings-archive/

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks for the article & the work that you put into it

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Having played a full season Young was not a prospect.

 

Gomez, Humber and Guerra were all top 100 prospects

 

Liriano and Bonser had been a top 100 prospect and had fallen out of the top 100 prior to the Twins trading for them. Natahan was not ranked

If anything it shows that top 100 prospect lists do not mean much.

I thought the Young trade was included here more because of Garza, although technically he had graduated the prospect list in 2007 too. I guess even in 2008, both guys were still getting valued by their high top 100 ranks from 2007.

 

Humber had lost his top 100 ranking by the time we traded for him too, but due to health/performance rather than graduation.

 

It's not surprising Nathan wasn't on any lists -- not only was he drafted as a shortstop before converting to pitcher, he was actually a mediocre starting pitcher in the minors until converting to relief at age 28.

 

I think top 100 lists can be useful, as long as one understands their limitations and context.

[Doctor Gast]

 

Lets not forget that Hicks has only played 407 games in the last 4 years, and was terrible his first year in New York (which was 123 of those 407 games)
 

Thank you for pointing that out. I don`t think Hicks really achieved his full potential although he`s been rated as one the best OF in the  AL. I don`t think Buxton has played much more in the last 4yrs. w/ some under stats years but I wouldn`t trade him for anyone. About the guy we trade for (Murphy), I believe he`s never been in a ML game.