Twins drafting strategy: Old And Busted already?

[ashbury]

My main takeaway from the acquisition of Kenta Maeda is this: we apparently had no choice but to part with a pitching talent, despite our hopes of dealing from perceived strength in position players - outfielders in particular.

 

First, I need to check my assumptions: does anyone recall the front office actually coming out and saying that their drafting strategy is to pick position players when they have a very early draft choice? For me it's basically been inference: 2019 they chose a SS and LF before nabbing a pitcher with the 54th overall choice, in 2018 it was two OF and one C before a pitcher at #154, and in 2017 it was SS and OF before a pitcher at #37.

 

You can usually figure out how to spread the work among 13 really good arms on a MLB pitching staff, if you happen to be so lucky to have that many good ones. But with position players, you usually face major league roster limitations that keep you from making use of them if your luck happens to concentrate good performers at a given position, particularly when it's not up-the-middle skill.

 

So it seemed, to me at least, implicit that closely tied to the apparent drafting strategy was an intention to aggressively trade the eventual redundancy of good hitting prospects, for high-end pitching talent that might be missed out on in the draft. Keep the best, trade the rest.

 

I've been skeptical of this expectation, and now I think there is a direct refutation, in the form of this week's trade.

 

We didn't package, say, Rooker and Wallner for a rotation arm. We had to offer a young pitcher.

 

Drafting pitchers is inherently risky. But going for safer picks with position players doesn't look like it's going to pay off, with anything other than a larger pool of position players to feed the major league team with.

 

In the grand scheme of keeping a pipeline of talented pitching coming, it seems to me that the Twins' drafting strategy has a hole in it.

[The Wise One]

If the front office could draft a Cole or Strassberg, Verlander in the first round they probably will. It would be sane to think the front office does not want to be in the position of having that early of pick.

To get value you have to give value. Rooker is not going to be a dealmaker unless it is for another Sam Dyson. 

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

That was your main takeaway?

[howieramone2]

King Theo will only draft college position players in the first round. He doesn't draft the best player available, while I believe we do. I really don't follow it that closely, but read this year's draft is all about college pitchers.

[Rosterman]

All those names: Burdi, Jay, Cederoth, Reed, Curtiss, Stewart, Eades, Gonsalves, Slegers, Bard, Chargois, Summers, Williams, Boyd and Boer.

[Shaitan]

Almost all trades seem to be position player for position player or, contrarily, pitcher for a pitcher.

 

I'm not reading into it past that.

[howieramone2]

Generally, you don't see prospect for prospect trades either. I'm hoping we have some excess starting pitching vets we can deal for low level pitching. Also, the handling of Oderizzi loams large.

[Dman]

While I agree with your thesis in general there are a lot of ways to look at pitcher drafting strategies.  We did not do well picking Stewart 4th overall and Jay 6th overall so picking a pitcher early does not guarantee success finding an ace.  The year we drafted Lewis number 1 overall was top heavy with pitching and we passed on that and used the savings on a high riser Leach in the second round Who has been hurt and slow to develop and high schooler Enlow who has been solid but not great.

 

This FO seems to believe they can more easily identify successful traits for hitters in early rounds and seem to shy away from pitchers until the later rounds.  My assumption is that they truly believe in TINSTAPP.  IN the later rounds they look for pitchers with ideal builds that have a plus pitch to work with and then I guess they hope they can develop that pitcher.  They also seem to grab over looked injured pitchers that had good stuff before they were injured and hope they return to form once healed.

 

Pitchers I would put in this category are Barnes, Sammons, Ober, Sands, Windor, Funderburk, Gipson Long, Headrick, Mooney and Lawyerson.  Will any of these guys work out?  hard to say.  Do any of them look like aces or even a number 3 type starter maybe one or two could be a number 3 if they get lucky.

 

It is really hard to find good pitching which is why it is always in short supply but it would be nice if they picked a few more guys a bit higher up to get more chances at finding someone special. 

 

Honestly I don't know what the answer is but if they are at least getting guys in the early rounds that work out as quality or star position players it seems better than a swing and complete miss but for a team like the Twins if we don't develop good pitching we will likely never have any.  And if as you say no one wants our position players for pitching then we are in a spot where we need to risk taking pitchers high or grabbing greater volume to find what we need in the draft.

 

Hopefully the FO has a plan that will better than what we have experienced in the past.

[gunnarthor]

While I'm still a bit neutral on our new FO, I think it's too early to look into draft strategy. First, they kept Deron Johnson around for a bit before replacing him with Sean Johnson so I think we need to see a few more drafts to see what philosophy or strategies they really are taking.

 

My personal opinion is that they wanted to spread draft money around a bit more so they like quantity a bit over quality. In 2017 so that's why we got Lewis over McKay or Wright but also allowed us to get Enlow who was a first round talent. I believe they made a few other over value picks that draft but can't remember for sure.

 

In 2018 I think they were thrilled to get Larnich fall to them - he was top 10 on fangraphs big board, IIRC. With him and Jeffers, the Twins saved nearly a million dollars which helped them go over on several players, including Cole Sands, Deshawn Keirsey and Charles Mack - our 4-6 round picks, all ranked in the 115-130 tier on pipeline's draft list. Hasn't really panned out yet but ...

 

Last year we didn't see quite the extreme money saving happening but we saw it some - especially in relations to the two Auburn infielders, Will Holland and Julien but also for the Gonzaga pitcher and the UC Irvine pitcher.

 

So other than spreading money around, I'm not sure they really have a philosophy of drafting hitters over pitchers. We just don't have a big enough sample size to actually make that statement.

 

Also, the FO moved a position player to get Odorizzi. That was a solid trade.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If the front office could draft a Cole or Strassberg, Verlander in the first round they probably will. It would be sane to think the front office does not want to be in the position of having that early of pick.

To get value you have to give value. Rooker is not going to be a dealmaker unless it is for another Sam Dyson. 

 

that was the point.......

[Mike Sixel]

 

While I'm still a bit neutral on our new FO, I think it's too early to look into draft strategy. First, they kept Deron Johnson around for a bit before replacing him with Sean Johnson so I think we need to see a few more drafts to see what philosophy or strategies they really are taking.

 

My personal opinion is that they wanted to spread draft money around a bit more so they like quantity a bit over quality. In 2017 so that's why we got Lewis over McKay or Wright but also allowed us to get Enlow who was a first round talent. I believe they made a few other over value picks that draft but can't remember for sure.

 

In 2018 I think they were thrilled to get Larnich fall to them - he was top 10 on fangraphs big board, IIRC. With him and Jeffers, the Twins saved nearly a million dollars which helped them go over on several players, including Cole Sands, Deshawn Keirsey and Charles Mack - our 4-6 round picks, all ranked in the 115-130 tier on pipeline's draft list. Hasn't really panned out yet but ...

 

Last year we didn't see quite the extreme money saving happening but we saw it some - especially in relations to the two Auburn infielders, Will Holland and Julien but also for the Gonzaga pitcher and the UC Irvine pitcher.

 

So other than spreading money around, I'm not sure they really have a philosophy of drafting hitters over pitchers. We just don't have a big enough sample size to actually make that statement.

 

Also, the FO moved a position player to get Odorizzi. That was a solid trade.

 

They could have drafted one of those guys, paid Enlow, and not incurred any penalties........

 

How big do you want the sample before it is evidence? Because they've not been drafting pitchers early, and they won't sign the expensive FA starters......and apparently can't trade from their excess for starters.....They better be great at development.

[howieramone2]

Well, we know they are good to great at trade deadlines. Also, lets not pretend we are anywhere near the only team in this position.

[drivlikejehu]

The premise of the thread is fictional - the Twins never said that they were selecting position players in order to trade for pitching, nor in fact have they even said that they prefer drafting position players in general. 

 

Even after trading Graterol, 2 of the Twins top 5 prospects are pitchers, as are 8 of the top 20, per FG.

 

Another work of fiction is the idea that the Twins have "redundancy" with respect to their position player prospects. I would think that, in the event of such a "redundancy," we would see MLB-ready position players cooling their heels in AAA because there is no space on the MLB team.

 

Yet, I am at a loss as to the identify of these 'redundant' position players. Among the Twins' top 30 prospects per FG, a grand total of one position player has even appeared in AAA at all (Brent Rooker). 

 

So to sum up the OP, the Twins fictional draft strategy has failed due to the accumulation of fictional redundant position players and the Twins failure to part with them in fictional trades.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm guessing the Red Sox dictated who they wanted in this deal... 

 

 

A couple other things just from reading the comments above: 

 

1.) No team would ever declare their draft strategy.

 

2.) Hitters are much less risky picks than pitchers. 

 

3.) Sean Johnson took over as Scouting Director before the 2017 draft. Deron Johnson is still scouting in the organization, and several of their top scouts are still in the organization. Very good people. Very good scouts. But I think the difference at the top (Falvey) has altered or created a focus for the scouts that may not have been there before. Not a focus on finding top talent, but a focus on what types of players they are looking for. What type of data? Prioritizing certain tools? Whatever those things are. There seems to be a lot more discussion between the scouts and player development as well, which is a very good thing. 

[David HK]

 

All those names: Burdi, Jay, Cederoth, Reed, Curtiss, Stewart, Eades, Gonsalves, Slegers, Bard, Chargois, Summers, Williams, Boyd and Boer.

And reading the clippings and scouting reports at the time, ALL these guys sounded like the next Verlander or Cole or Strasburg...

[Andrew Thares]

I don't understand what the problem is with the Twins drafting strategy of late? Position players like Alex Kiriloff, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker and Ryan Jeffers have been excellent draft picks, while on the flip side, Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay were absolute busts, and both were pitchers taken inside the top 10.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with you Andrew, but I also believe you have to draft pitching to develop pitching.  I'm not sure I can identify a specific "draft strategy" for our new F.O. yet, but I like what they've done so far.  On another topic, any thoughts on what might have to happen to complete the Mookie blockbuster now that the Red Sox are spooked by some of Graterol's medicals ??  Did we "theoretically" send Graterol to the Dodgers who then sent him to the Red Sox ??  My assumption (I know it's never good to "assume") is that the Dodgers will have to sweeten this deal.  Either by accepting to pay more $$ on Price's contract or attaching an additional prospect.  I don't think the Twins will have to replace Graterol with a different prospect.  What do you all at TD think ??

[howieramone2]

My guess is we have to make it work. Maeda is far too good a fit, to let anything get in the way.

[gunnarthor]

 

They could have drafted one of those guys, paid Enlow, and not incurred any penalties........

 

How big do you want the sample before it is evidence? Because they've not been drafting pitchers early, and they won't sign the expensive FA starters......and apparently can't trade from their excess for starters.....They better be great at development.

More than three? No one would say Ryan and Radcliff ignored pitchers to focus on hitters and yet in 06 they took one pitcher, Tyler Roberston, in the third round and none until the 9th. The following year, they didn't draft a pitcher until the 5th round. Sean Johnson has had three drafts, I believe. Way too early to say he has a specific strategy in mind.

[Doctor Gast]

Good point! Like what was said we have good scouts. But I agree w/ the author our focus should be more on pitching, hopefully we have the best pitching scouts to go w/ our excellent pitching development. Hopefully we`ll get a bunch of high rated pitching prospect this draft

[terrydactyls]

My guess is we have to make it work. Maeda is far too good a fit, to let anything get in the way.

Obviously I was not involved in orchestrating this trade. But the way I read it is that the Dodgers needed to send more to Boston to complete the Betts/Price transaction and the Red Sox did not want Maetta. So the Dodgers suggested Graterol and the Sox said "Yes, Please!". So the Dodgers sent Maetta to Minnesota for Graterol and then traded him to Boston. If Boston now thinks Graterol is unhealthy, then the Dodgers should be on the hook, not the Twins. But all that aside, why would Boston not just take Maetta if they had to have a starter? I do think it's buyer's remorse and now they want to save face. Hold your position Falvine.

[Brandon]

Anyway you look at it, this has been a well thought out discussion thread by all participants.  Everyone has contributed good points and made this a really fun thread to read.  Thanks everyone for your comments.  I learned a lot about our drafting and such today.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Obviously I was not involved in orchestrating this trade. But the way I read it is that the Dodgers needed to send more to Boston to complete the Betts/Price transaction and the Red Sox did not want Maetta. So the Dodgers suggested Graterol and the Sox said "Yes, Please!". So the Dodgers sent Maetta to Minnesota for Graterol and then traded him to Boston. If Boston now thinks Graterol is unhealthy, then the Dodgers should be on the hook, not the Twins. But all that aside, why would Boston not just take Maetta if they had to have a starter? I do think it's buyer's remorse and now they want to save face. Hold your position Falvine.

 

I would imagine the Dodgers made the Maeda for Graterol trade conditional on the Red Sox accepting Graterol along with Verdugo for Betts and Price, therefore you can't have one without the other.  If the Dodgers did not do that, then you are correct that Graterol is now property of the Dodgers, and Maeda of the Twins.

 

That being said, my guess is that the Red Sox didn't want a starter in return, they wanted talent ready to contribute at the big league level no later than next year, with price tag after this year a minor concern, since they will have reset their luxury tax level, and won't have to pay Betts $35M a year.  The Red Sox could quite easily sign almost any starter they want on next year's free agent market, and still come out with a lower payroll than had they re-signed Betts.  It's also entirely possible that the Red Sox were internally pessimistic about being able to re-sign Betts; perhaps he has informed Boston he prefers to play on the West Coast, or maybe they just don't want to get into a bidding war.  Speculation of course, but possible.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

They could have drafted one of those guys, paid Enlow, and not incurred any penalties........

 

How big do you want the sample before it is evidence? Because they've not been drafting pitchers early, and they won't sign the expensive FA starters......and apparently can't trade from their excess for starters.....They better be great at development.

 

It's not that they won't sign the expensive FA starters, it's that in many cases they're never even given the option to seriously negotiate.  Wheeler and Bumgarner wouldn't even listen to offers.  From what I understand, Strasburg wanted to stay with the Nats, and was only a free agent because he had an opt out, and was reasonably certain Washington would give him a better deal if they were forced to.  Cole brought a sign to his press conference that pretty much confirmed where he wanted to sign (pun intended), aside from which the Twins were never going to offer 9 and $324M, nor were any other teams.  That leaves Ryu as the only "expensive FA starter" left, and had we signed him, we surely wouldn't have signed Donaldson.  Ryu has 7.3 WAR since 2015, Donaldson has 26.7.

 

[jimbo92107]

Hate to say, "too early to tell," but it's true. Twins appear to be drafting good bats high, then grabbing projectable arms later, hoping to develop hidden gem pitchers with great coaching. 

 

So far, it looks like the first part is working. They now have several very good looking bats rising quickly through the minors. This should be a very good hitting franchise for quite a while. 

 

Developing great arm prospects will of course take more time, since we know the strategy depends on a guy having a projectable body, plus at least one dominant pitch to build around. Early returns on the new pitching coaches have been positive, if you look at the bull pen. Hard not to be impressed by the reclamation of Duffey and May, two guys that a year ago appeared on the cusp of being cut. In fact, the Twins relief staff today is brimming with guys whose stuff has improved considerably. I'm seeing heaters up two or three ticks, with better command. I'm seeing weak pitches being eliminated. All good.

 

Where is a sign of improved starting pitching? Odorizzi did well last season. Berrios was about the same. Pineda was shockingly good, coming off a long injury absence. Was that in part due to good coaching? Maybe the best sign was young Dobnak, who stepped up and immediately looked like a future stud horse. 

 

To me, the real proof will be fringe guys like Alcala and Romero, particularly the latter. Yes, Fernando Romero perfectly matches the profile of a guy Wes Johnson and his posse should be able to develop. Romero is young, strong, no physical ailments, and he's got what should be dominant stuff, minus consistent command. This is a guy that Johnson should be able to make into a star pitcher, unless there's some confounding factor we can't see. A language barrier? That would be tragic...

[jkcarew]

I don't think this post-season necessarily indicates that the strategy isn't going to work in the long run.

 

One of the things about the twins top position prospects is that...at least right now...I don't know that any trading partner could consider them that 'close'.  You'd have to find a team truly tanking/rebuilding to give up a win-now asset for those prospects. Even for a team like Boston, Graterol is really the only prospect the Twins have where Red Sox management could look their fans in the eye and say, "we going to be better at 'x' (presumably the back-end of the bullpen) in 2020 because of this guy".

 

I see this move as opportunistic...solving not just a 2020 problem, but a 2021, 2022, etc. problem as well, even if it costs you an arm. But, probably most importantly, it's not at all obvious that the Twins still consider Graterol a starting pitching prospect.

 

(Note: might also be worth noting that it's within the realm of possibility that the Red Sox would have been willing to ask for someone like Jaylin Davis to headline a package...seeing as though they were losing an athletic corner outfielder in the deal, and Davis could be considered 'close'...instead of an arm. But the FO had already dealt Davis for pitching.)

[ewen21]

 

All those names: Burdi, Jay, Cederoth, Reed, Curtiss, Stewart, Eades, Gonsalves, Slegers, Bard, Chargois, Summers, Williams, Boyd and Boer.

We can't seem to raise a starting pitcher if our lives depended on it. Before Berrios the best we had was Garza and he was traded away.

 

If we cannot draft and raise competent starting pitchers to fill our rotation we are destined to the same fate.  

[howieramone2]

By fate you mean winning the Central with 101 wins?

[FlauerPauer]

I still think they should have taken MacKenzie Gore instead of Lewis. Wanted them to do it back in 2017 and wish they had Gore now instead of Lewis. If you are in the Twins market and you want ace pitcher potential you need to draft and develop pitching, or be able to trade for a pitcher you believe can be turned into an ace pitcher. Clearly, a team like the Twins, cannot buy an ace pitcher through free agency, and that's ok; however, sometimes you need to take a chance on a pitcher in your draft.

 

Kohl Stewart may not have been successful, but he still did make it to the major leagues, and was claimed when DFA'd. Tyler Jay was a head scratching move as he was a reliever in college and magically he supposed to become a starter? That was a bad selection, but Stewart wasn't talked negatively about by the critics of the day. If my memory serves, most thought it was a high risk, high reward selection.

 

My selection criteria is best available player regardless of position, but if batter/pitcher are both projected 55+ player, I'm going pitcher over hitter.

[howieramone2]

Several days before the draft, by one account, Jay worked himself to #3. Also, it was hard to find anything that didn't project him as a starter. The right move simply didn't work out.