3 Recent Extensions That Could Compare to a Possible Jose Berrios Extension

[Cooper Carlson]

It looks like the Twins and Jose Berrios are on their way to an arbitration hearing after not agreeing on a contract for 2020. They would likely want this to be avoided so maybe they are quietly working on an extension. I looked at three recent extensions that give us an idea of what Berrios could get.Jose Berrios will enter 2020 with three years of team control remaining until he becomes a free agent. In his four year career he has a 4.21 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 23.1 K%, and 7.7 BB% in 596 2/3 IP. He is still only 25 years old and in his first year of arbitration. There are two pitchers who recently received extensions that compare very similarly to Berrios.

 

Carlos Martinez:

• Extended after 2016 season.
• He was 24 years old.
• He had three years of service time remaining
• Career stats at extension:492 2/3 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 22.5 K%, 8.6 BB%
• Extension total: 5 years/$51 million ($10.2 MM)

Aaron Nola:

• Extended after 2018 season.
• He was 25 years old.
• He had three years of service time remaining.
• Career stats at extension: 569,0 IP, 3.35 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 25.7 K%, 6.7 BB%
• Extension total: 4 years/$45 million ($11.25 MM)

Both of these extensions are something I would give to Jose Berrios. Buying out his arbitration plus one or two more years of his free agency for just $10-$12 million would be a good move. The age and service time for both extensions are nearly identical to Berrios'. The career ERA and FIP for both Nola and Martinez are nearly a full run better than Berrios', but the K% and BB% are pretty close so I think these comparisons are fair. If the Twins expect Berrios to take another step to become a true ace then this would be an excellent extension, but would Berrios take it? It was noted he actually rejected an extension offer last offseason.

 

If Berrios won’t take the contract extension similar to Nola or Martinez because he wants more money, then this comparison does not work.

 

Miles Mikolas:

• Extended after 2018 season.
• He was 29 years old.
• He had four years of service time remaining.
• Career stats at extension: 3.61 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, $17.1 K%, 5.2 BB%
• Extension total: 4 years/$68 million ($17 MM)

This one doesn’t have as many similarities as the first two but the main thing I was looking at here was the total amount of money. Mikolas locked up a four-year contract worth $17 million per season and maybe that is what Berrios is looking for. If he does take that next step like the Twins hope then this would end up being a fair contract for Berrios, but that is a really important “if” for the team. I think Berrios would take this extension, but would the Twins offer it?

 

With the Twins and Berrios currently headed to a hearing over less than $500k, the two sides being involved in extension talks makes sense. I hope both sides can come to an agreement so there isn’t any bad blood entering 2020 and beyond.

 

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[jorgenswest]

I would offer 5/60 and be willing to go more. They can get this done. There is a number that will get this done. It doesn’t need to be team friendly.

 

By the time he is a free agent they might have to pay 50 million for those last two years and the qualifying offer might be over 20 in three years.

 

Pay up now.

[mikelink45]

Without Berrios the future looks bleak.  Pineda and Odorrizi will not continue.  Graterol, Balazovic, and Duran need a veteran and who better than Berrios?

[TopGunn#22]

5 for $60 would be acceptable.  For the foreseeable future he is the Ace of the staff.  If the Twins ever figure out how to pair him with a true #1 he would be a good #2.  Get it done. 

[jimbo92107]

Problem is, Berrios has not yet showed that he is the ace we hoped he'd be. No huge innings pitched, no ridiculous ERA, no particular area where he has really dominated. Instead, he has looked like a guy on the edge of dominating, but not quite. He's had spells where he looked dominant, but then his delivery would flatten out or something, and hitters would bash him around. 

 

Sorry, but on most MLB teams, Berrios would be a middle rotation guy, not the "ace." This team still lacks a real stud horse. Somebody needs to step up this season, or management should consider a major deal to bring one in. 

[howieramone2]

Name 5 teams where Berrios would clearly be a middle rotation guy. For your convenience, MLB.com just listed every team's rotation.

[saviking]

5 years for 75 mill would be worth it .. That's probably what he would get paid if he was a free agent this year. But the only reason I would pay it is because our starting pitching staff is our achilles heel right now. 

[bobs]

With what transpired this off-season when trying to lure free agent front-line pitching here, I'd do any of those extensions yesterday to keep Berrios here long term

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

5 years for 75 mill would be worth it .. That's probably what he would get paid if he was a free agent this year. But the only reason I would pay it is because our starting pitching staff is our achilles heel right now. 

This is the best offer listed in this article so far. But tbh if Berrios were an FA this off season you couldn't sniff him for this price. Wheeler got 5/118. This is the kind of deal Berrios would get as an FA. Easily. Granted he's not going to get 24 mil per season for the next 3 arb campaigns. But on the other hand he's not going to sign away his first 2 prime FA seasons away cheaply either. That's what's being suggested when people throw out  5/60 contracts.

 

Should he continue to progress as he has every season in his career thus far he should make around 30mil plus through the arb process. He then becomes an FA a year younger then Wheeler was when he hit the open market. IF Berrios stays healthy he has some huge paydays ahead of him.

[ashbury]

 

5 years for 75 mill would be worth it .. That's probably what he would get paid if he was a free agent this year. 

If he were declared a free agent right now? You are light on the number of years and on the average per season. The high bidder would offer something in Gerrit Cole territory, considering that Jose is younger and has been healthy. $300M for total contract value, surely.

 

The lower numbers we are discussing here are because of the lack of negotiating leverage he currently has. It's hard to express just how much impact the CBA has on player prices.

 

/ edit - ninja'd by the above post!

[Seth Stohs]

Throwing numbers out doesn't make much sense without throwing some context to it...

 

2020 - Arb 1 - $4M

2021 - Arb 2 - $8M

2022 - Arb 3 - $10M

2023 - FA1 - $15M

 

So, I think those are realistic numbers if he stays about the same as he's been, which is an All Star. 

 

So that's 4 years, $37 million. 

 

Obviously there is a hope that he would keep getting better, and if so, he could earn a little more than that going year-to-year and becoming a free agent after 2022. The Twins take the risk of this deal. So the Twins should be in that range. 

 

Then the question is when Berrios wants to be a free agent. If he signed the above 4-year deal, he'd be a free agent at 30. Would he want to be a free agent pitcher later than that?

 

A 5th year option would probably need to be in that $18-20 million range with a $3-5 million buyout. So now we're looking at 4 years, $40 million with an option... in this case, if the option is picked up, it would be 5 years, $55 million. 

 

Once they reach an agreement on that, they can get creative and front-end load it or whatever. 

[jorgenswest]

 

This is the best offer listed in this article so far. But tbh if Berrios were an FA this off season you couldn't sniff him for this price. Wheeler got 5/118. This is the kind of deal Berrios would get as an FA. Easily. Granted he's not going to get 24 mil per season for the next 3 arb campaigns. But on the other hand he's not going to sign away his first 2 prime FA seasons away cheaply either. That's what's being suggested when people throw out  5/60 contracts.

 

Should he continue to progress as he has every season in his career thus far he should make around 30mil plus through the arb process. He then becomes an FA a year younger then Wheeler was when he hit the open market. IF Berrios stays healthy he has some huge paydays ahead of him.

 

I think you are right. Though 5/60 seems like a reasonable progression in the Nola and Martinez contracts the Twins will need to go higher. There is a number that Berrios will accept to get some security in case of injury and the Twins can get two more years. The 30 million in arb seems right. I had the Twins starting with another 30 but maybe it will take 40 or 45.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Problem is, Berrios has not yet showed that he is the ace we hoped he'd be. No huge innings pitched, no ridiculous ERA, no particular area where he has really dominated. Instead, he has looked like a guy on the edge of dominating, but not quite. He's had spells where he looked dominant, but then his delivery would flatten out or something, and hitters would bash him around. 

 

Sorry, but on most MLB teams, Berrios would be a middle rotation guy, not the "ace." This team still lacks a real stud horse. Somebody needs to step up this season, or management should consider a major deal to bring one in. 

392.2 IP in 18-19. That's good for 8th in the AL both seasons. Top 10 in 2019 in ERA, ERA+ and FIP. What's he supposed to do? 

 

Some team will be happy to call him their Ace in 2023 and pay him 30mil plus.

[Brandon]

I would go a little higher then Seth's estimate maybe

 

Arb1 = 4.3 million

Arb 2 = 9 million

Arb 3 = 13 million

FA 1 = 17.5 million

 

So a 4 year 45 - 46 million with 5th year option of 17 million with 4 - 5 million buyout. It's a little on the high side but the numbers are where they need to be for an extension.

[Shane Wahl]

He is not going to take any of these lower deals. No way. I would go for this, right now:

2020 = 7 

2021 = 16

2022 = 16 

2023 = 16

2024 = 14 (option), 5 (buyout)

 

5 years/60 guaranteed

[EbbyCalvin]

I like 5/60 or 6/72. Structured however. With club options the last couple. Throw in a buyout and escalators for performance. Let the kid have a chance to earn the 911 with a quadrophonic Blaupunkt.

[adorduan]

 

Name 5 teams where Berrios would clearly be a middle rotation guy. For your convenience, MLB.com just listed every team's rotation.

Houston - Velander Grienke Berrios

Dodgers - Kershaw Buehler Berrios

Washington - Scherzer Strasburg Berrios

Cleveland - Bieber Clevinger Berrios

Mets - deGrom Syndergaard Berrios

 

 

 

[dbminn]

 

Houston - Velander Grienke Berrios

Dodgers - Kershaw Buehler Berrios

Washington - Scherzer Strasburg Berrios

Cleveland - Bieber Clevinger Berrios

Mets - deGrom Syndergaard Berrios

 

Two of the five are close but debatable. Berrios was dead even with Clevinger and Syndergaard last season. I disagree with the Dodgers comp. He was clearly better than Kershaw last year and, with health, will be better this year. There are only two clearly better. 

[saviking]

 

If he were declared a free agent right now? You are light on the number of years and on the average per season. The high bidder would offer something in Gerrit Cole territory, considering that Jose is younger and has been healthy. $300M for total contract value, surely.

 

The lower numbers we are discussing here are because of the lack of negotiating leverage he currently has. It's hard to express just how much impact the CBA has on player prices.

 

/ edit - ninja'd by the above post!

 

All the MORE reason to pay him what he's asking. 

 

[adorduan]

 

Two of the five are close but debatable. Berrios was dead even with Clevinger and Syndergaard last season. I disagree with the Dodgers comp. He was clearly better than Kershaw last year and, with health, will be better this year. There are only two clearly better. 

By what measure? Kershaw 178.1 innings pitched, 145 hits, 41BB, 189K, 1.04 WHIP 3.03 ERA.

[Possumlad]

 

Problem is, Berrios has not yet showed that he is the ace we hoped he'd be. No huge innings pitched, no ridiculous ERA, no particular area where he has really dominated. Instead, he has looked like a guy on the edge of dominating, but not quite. He's had spells where he looked dominant, but then his delivery would flatten out or something, and hitters would bash him around. 

 

Sorry, but on most MLB teams, Berrios would be a middle rotation guy, not the "ace." This team still lacks a real stud horse. Somebody needs to step up this season, or management should consider a major deal to bring one in. 

It's not really a "problem," as no one in the thread or article is suggesting we should pay him like an ace, or that he'd demand it. 5/60 is middle of the rotation money, and probably right around what Berrios deserves at this point. Maybe a bit more if you're willing to be on his age & remaining upside.

[adorduan]

 

Two of the five are close but debatable. Berrios was dead even with Clevinger and Syndergaard last season. I disagree with the Dodgers comp. He was clearly better than Kershaw last year and, with health, will be better this year. There are only two clearly better. 

I would trade Berrios straight up for either Clevinger or Syndergaard.

[dbminn]

 

I would trade Berrios straight up for either Clevinger or Syndergaard.

 

Yeah, I would do that for Clevinger. His problem last year was health - back muscle strain. I thought it was shoulder-related, which I'm always afraid of. 

 

Berrios is right at Syndergaard's level and two years younger. At that point, it's a matter of opinion, not one clearly better.

[In My La Z boy]

We have him locked up for the next 3 years. Arb numbers will be about $25M. It is not a crisis if we keep doing this. Might take 5/80 to get those next 2 years. Will he be worth $27.5M per season in years 4 and 5?

I know - maybe he will be. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Miles Mikolas:

• Extended after 2018 season.
• He was 29 years old.
• He had four years of service time remaining.
• Career stats at extension: 3.61 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, $17.1 K%, 5.2 BB%
• Extension total: 4 years/$68 million ($17 MM)

Cooper, Miles Mikolas did not have 4 years of team control remaining. His original 2 year contract with the Cardinals, after returning from Japan, would have made him a free agent again after 2019 (essentially counting his service time earned in Japan).

 

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2018/9/12/17848144/do-the-cardinals-need-to-make-a-decision-on-miles-mikolas

 

Here’s the skinny on Mikolas’s contract situation: he signed a two-year contract this past offseason, worth $15.5 million total. The money is an even split; he’ll make the same $7.8 in 2019 that he made this year. There was language put into the contract that makes Mikolas a free agent following the 2019 season; due to his low amount of service the first time around in MLB, he’s not actually reached the service time milestone necessary to avoid the arbitration system, and thus it had to be put into the contract. But since there’s been some confusion over the course of the season, I figured it was important to spell out here that yes, Miles Mikolas will be a free agent after the 2019 season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Nola and Severino were the two comps last offseason. But Berrios was a year behind them in service time, so it's possible the Twins were hoping for a bigger discount in whatever offer they made last winter. (Maybe something more like a Polanco or Kepler type deal?)

 

I would expect a Nola and Severino type offer this winter, but maybe Berrios wants more? I hope the Twins still think he is worth it!

[Shane Wahl]

Now that 2020 is what it is:

2021: 16 million

2022: 17 million

2023: 18 million (FA 1)
2024: 19 miilion (FA 2)
2025: 15 million (option) (5 million buyout)

5 years/75 (with buyout)
5 years/85 (with option)

Add yearly $1 million incentives for 4.0 K/BB ratio
 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Now that 2020 is what it is:

 

2021: 16 million

2022: 17 million

2023: 18 million (FA 1)

2024: 19 miilion (FA 2)

2025: 15 million (option) (5 million buyout)

 

5 years/75 (with buyout)

5 years/85 (with option)

 

Add yearly $1 million incentives for 4.0 K/BB ratio

 

I don't believe specific performance incentives are allowed under the current CBA.

Playing time incentives are, as are award bonuses, but not performance incentives.