Donaldson contract discussion - 4/100? 4/110?

[adorduan]

 

Garver, Sano, Arraez, Polonco, Donaldson, Kepler Buxton, Rosario and Cruz.  The only weak bat is when Garver gets the off day, Gonzales to keep the other players fresh is not a liability, either. That would be a lineup to get a team to the playoffs. 

Well, except the point is to actually advance in the playoffs. That takes good pitching.

[dbminn]

Twins need a corner IF and it would be nice if they improved IF defense. Donaldson provides both. 

 

Right now, 1B is a combo of Gonzalez and Adrianza. Marwin is a solid league-average hitter and a very good defensive 3B and LF. That is not a profile for a starting 1B. Same is true for Ehire and he's needed as the backup SS. 

 

Donaldson will cost a lot. He's not a "value play". The question is: do the Twins want a good $/win ratio or a competitive team? Donaldson is projected for 4.5+ WAR in 2020. He adds at least 3 wins to the current Twins lineup. That is a big difference for one player. 

 

Odds are good the Twins don't sign him, but I'm happy they are making a play for him.

[ewen21]

Well, except the point is to actually advance in the playoffs. That takes good pitching.

When you score runs like we don’t in the postseason good pitching STILL isn’t enough.

[adorduan]

 

When you score runs like we don’t in the postseason good pitching STILL isn’t enough.

Well, since most of the team didn't hit in the playoffs, who do you suggest they replace?  Kepler? Sano? Garver? They all sucked in the playoffs last year. Of course  you are not going to do that.  Giving up 23 runs in 3 games is the bigger problem...

[Danchat]

 

Call me a cynic, but this story sounds like a plant by someone. As others mentioned, there have been rumors for a couple weeks that the Twins and Nats are at four years. This is either
A. A plant by Donaldson's agent to get the Braves to up their offer, or
B. A plant by the Twins to prepare the fanbase for the fact that he ain't coming here. They can say "Hey, we tried."

I don't think anyone in the fanbase wants to hear "we tried" anymore. I also find it to be ridiculous that the Twins would leak this information just to "appease" the fans, even though it certainly won't do that.

 

I think the FO is afraid to give pitchers multi-year deals, but they are open to giving bigger deals to hitters. 

[tony&rodney]

All of the top FA pitchers Twins' fans wanted to see pitch for Minnesota are signed by other teams. The Twins have a solid core of players and some promising prospects a year or two away from prominence, if everything rolls nicely.

It seems to me that there are only two paths from here to improve the roster, add a player or two or shift to a strategy of trading from their core, prospects, or some combination of the two.

I'm not seeing where any of the current Twins players bring back a pitcher without diminishing the team and it also seems like only a drastic overpay of prospects would bring back a pitcher, and not an ace at that. The question that pops up frequently is what would it cost to trade for Bieber, Thor, Paddock, Castillo, or those who are really worthwhile. I can't see it happening.

So, signing Donaldson or Moreland become the last FA options, in my view. This is why I would advocate for a Donaldson addition right now. Additionally, I have shifted my ceiling upwards for a potential offer to JD because he would be a player to allow the maximum development of prospects and overall positive experiences for the Twins.

Finally, the summer will unfold to reveal whether the Twins must trade or add from their own system to be a more competitive team in the playoffs. The Twins must win the division first.

[ewen21]

Well, since most of the team didn't hit in the playoffs, who do you suggest they replace? Kepler? Sano? Garver? They all sucked in the playoffs last year. Of course you are not going to do that. Giving up 23 runs in 3 games is the bigger problem...

I would say lack of hitting in the playoffs is easily as much of a reason why we haven’t won.  I believe we need pitching help just like you. I just don’t like the blanket statement “Pitching wins”

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

When you score runs like we don’t in the postseason good pitching STILL isn’t enough.

The Twins needed to both hit and pitch better last postseason. It wasn’t just a failure to hit. There were a lot of low scoring games last October that were won by way of pitching.

 

But again, none of this has to do with Donaldson. Your opinion of why the Twins failed to win last October is valid, agreeable and well-informed, but in the end it’s just an opinion like everyone else’s, and the Twins Daily comment policy frowns on continually bringing up the same issue again and again in thread after thread:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/8228-twins-daily-comment-policy/

(First item of Rule 2)

[Thrylos]

 

I’m not convinced 3rd base is the problem, either, although the defense at 3rd does improve, and having both Sano and Donaldson in the lineup makes it even better. Better yet would be to get a SS with better defense and arm, and move Polanco to 2nd base and maybe use Arraez in a trade for pitching, but that’s a completely different discussion.

I just don't see how playing Sano in a position he is not extremely familiar with and happens to touch the ball more than any other position than Catcher, will make the Twins better defensively...

[Brandon]

I was thinking maybe the Twins upped their offer or have a highly competitive offer out there. I think if leaked by Minnesota is to show their fans we have a 4 year offer out there so we are definitely competitive. They are putting their money out there. It's just waiting to be accepted. I just wished they could've leaked the dollar amount too so we can judge the offer ourselves.

[The Wise One]

 

Well, except the point is to actually advance in the playoffs. That takes good pitching.

Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineada are all good pitchers. So, therefore you are correct. Like the elite pitchers, the good pitchers have to be on the top of their game for the team to win in the playoffs. If not, they lose, like the elite pitcher

[twinkies8791]

I bet donaldson signs before the NFL playoffs start

[AlwaysinModeration]

Looking at Donaldson’s stats are remarkable. He’s posted an 883 OPS or above five out of the last seven seasons. He’s posted WAR of 5 or above in six of the last seven seasons, and 6+ WAR in five of the last seven seasons, including last year. (Sano has zero; his max WAR is 3.1.)

 

Trying to figure out a reasonable contract for him, if he is a 4 WAR player going forward, which seems conservative, the standard calculations for a player are to expect a 0.5 WAR decline per year. So four years equals 4+3.5+3+2.5=13 WAR. At $9mm per WAR, a contract should be 4/117mm. At a more conservative $8mm/WAR, his contract would be 4/104.

 

MLBTradeRumors projected him to get 3/75. He’s made $23/year the last two years. 23x4=92, so maybe the Twins have offered him a 4/92 contract.

 

I’ll note that the Twins signed what turned out to be the best hitter of the offseason last year at about this time, an old guy who hits the ball extremely hard, who the Twins weren’t expected to sign (or outbid other teams for). Could history repeat itself?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Looking at the stat cast leaderboard of hard hit balls in 2019, limiting to players with at least 100 “events”, here is the top 10 average exit velocity:

 

1. Judge, 96.7mph

2. Gallo, 96.2

3. Sano, 95.2

4. Cruz, 94.5

5. Schwarber, 94.5

6. Donaldson, 94.0

7. Yelich, 93.9

8. Fr. Reyes, 93.8

9. Stanton, 93.8

10. Moncada, 93.6

[darin617]

 

Looking at the stat cast leaderboard of hard hit balls in 2019, limiting to players with at least 100 “events”, here is the top 10 average exit velocity:

1. Judge, 96.7mph
2. Gallo, 96.2
3. Sano, 95.2
4. Cruz, 94.5
5. Schwarber, 94.5
6. Donaldson, 94.0
7. Yelich, 93.9
8. Fr. Reyes, 93.8
9. Stanton, 93.8
10. Moncada, 93.6

Aren't some of the hard hit balls outs? So unless they have the launch angle along with it this doesn't mean that much to me.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Aren't some of the hard hit balls outs? So unless they have the launch angle along with it this doesn't mean that much to me.

Yes, the statcast data average exit velocity is for all balls hit, including ground balls, pop ups, homeruns, and even lineouts. You can see average launch angle too.

 

http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-hit-velo

 

And sure, average exit velocity PLUS launch angle would provide more detail. The point I was making by posting that top ten list, though, is that hard hit balls are in and of themselves extremely valuable as they overwhelming result in hits, usually extra-base hits, and home runs. The more hard hit balls, the better.

 

I’m pretty sure Cruz, Cron and Schoop were targeted last year at least in part because of their ability to consistently hit the ball hard.

 

If the Twins succeed in signing Donaldson, that would fit the pattern.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I’ll note that the Twins signed what turned out to be the best hitter of the offseason last year at about this time, an old guy who hits the ball extremely hard, who the Twins weren’t expected to sign (or outbid other teams for). Could history repeat itself?

I appreciate the optimism, but MLBTR actually predicted the Twins would sign Cruz. And they predicted a slightly larger contract than what he actually received (predicted 2/30, actual 1/14.3 or 2/26 with team option).

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

 

I think the Twins signing Donaldson would represent a pretty substantial break from history.

[tony&rodney]

From: spycake

"I think the Twins signing Donaldson would represent a pretty substantial break from history."

 

Yes, true. January, 2020 is as good as any time to break from past history. 4/92 or 4/100, just do it.

[HawksNest]

Braves beat reporter from The Athletic just tweeted that he has confirmation that Braves have now offered Donaldson a 4 year contract...

[MMMordabito]

 

Braves beat reporter from The Athletic just tweeted that he has confirmation that Braves have now offered Donaldson a 4 year contract...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/latest-on-josh-donaldson-3.html

 

Earlier on, it sounded like Donaldson was giving the Braves the opportunity to "come close" or match other offers.  This isn't a good development as far as the Twins are concerned.

[In My La Z boy]

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/latest-on-josh-donaldson-3.html

 

Earlier on, it sounded like Donaldson was giving the Braves the opportunity to "come close" or match other offers.  This isn't a good development as far as the Twins are concerned.

We are being taken for a ride on this one. He liked playing with the Braves - He has family in Virginia. If he wants a championship shot he doesn't need us. Nats or Braves or Twins mmmmmmmm? Now I'd pick the Twins because this is where I come from. Donaldson on the other hand will need CASH - and alot more of it from us than from them. As we've heard from many already - we are not the destination of choice. If we are to get him, we must be willing to pay at least $10M more. That doesn't sound like us. 

[HawksNest]

 

We are being taken for a ride on this one. He liked playing with the Braves - He has family in Virginia. If he wants a championship shot he doesn't need us. Nats or Braves or Twins mmmmmmmm? Now I'd pick the Twins because this is where I come from. Donaldson on the other hand will need CASH - and alot more of it from us than from them. As we've heard from many already - we are not the destination of choice. If we are to get him, we must be willing to pay at least $10M more. That doesn't sound like us. 

 

Agreed.  Feels like a classic leverage play on his part and I can't blame him to be honest. Negotiation 101.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

We are being taken for a ride on this one. He liked playing with the Braves - He has family in Virginia. If he wants a championship shot he doesn't need us. Nats or Braves or Twins mmmmmmmm? Now I'd pick the Twins because this is where I come from. Donaldson on the other hand will need CASH - and alot more of it from us than from them. As we've heard from many already - we are not the destination of choice. If we are to get him, we must be willing to pay at least $10M more. That doesn't sound like us. 

 

Based on Darvish and Wheeler rumors, sounds like $100M is the default setting on their word processor template for their big budget hopefuls. The pressure is on though, maybe they'll figure out how to edit that number to turn down the heat on them. If he really likes Atlanta or Washington it still might not matter I suppose, but of the free agents with reported geographical preferences, Donaldson has seemed like the guy who was most concerned with getting the best deal. 

 

Either way, if the report is accurate and he still hasn't chosen Atlanta and they know they are his preference, I'd guess that means they are not currently his high bidder.

[bunsen82]

I would say the Twins are the high bidder by a reasonable amount, and they feel comfortable that they will ultimately have the highest bid and get him.  Ultimately I would say we are #3 on Donaldson's wish list so the money is going to have to win out.  We will see but I think he will sign elsewhere.  The longer this drags out, the better chance we have of signing him. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Yes money speaks, and the Twins aren't going to get these guys for lower offers. We were 18mil below Philly's deal for Wheeler. We were 20mil and a year short for Darvish. If Falvey wants this guy he will have to show him the money and do like the Yanks and wine and dine the guy. When NYY wanted Cole what did they do? They took him and his wife out on the town and opened a couple of bottles of the Cole's anniversary wine. What does a player get from the Twins? A phone call from Rocco. Not going to cut it, plus they are consistently short on offers of $$$$$.

[nicksaviking]

 

I would say the Twins are the high bidder by a reasonable amount, and they feel comfortable that they will ultimately have the highest bid and get him.  Ultimately I would say we are #3 on Donaldson's wish list so the money is going to have to win out.  We will see but I think he will sign elsewhere.  The longer this drags out, the better chance we have of signing him. 

 

If the Twins were the high bidder with Atlanta coming in 3rd hoping they can get him at a discount, I might be worried that he'll split the difference and run to Washington.

 

[bunsen82]

 

If the Twins were the high bidder with Atlanta coming in 3rd hoping they can get him at a discount, I might be worried that he'll split the difference and run to Washington.

That is what I was implying, that if the braves or Washington just gets close he may take the lessor money. 

[beckmt]

I think the offers are in the 4/100 range, to get Donaldson, I think the Twins are going to have to go into the 4/110 range.  Otherwise the money will be close and he will stay in the National League.

[Darius]

I think the offers are in the 4/100 range, to get Donaldson, I think the Twins are going to have to go into the 4/110 range. Otherwise the money will be close and he will stay in the National League.

There is no way the Twins pay 4 years 100M+ to Donaldson. Absolutely no chance.

 

I’d be thrilled to be wrong, but the Twins aren’t winning a bidding war, here.

[DocBauer]

I think the offers are in the 4/100 range, to get Donaldson, I think the Twins are going to have to go into the 4/110 range. Otherwise the money will be close and he will stay in the National League.

Generally, I think you are spot on. The problem is, for both sides involved, that amounts to $2.5M. That really amounts to nothing when you are dealing with these crazy numbers. So then you figure, why not make it $120M and add $5M more per? I mean, it's only $5M more right?

 

It's not just player preference, but at $ values that close, that's what probably wins out. And at some point, silly money just becomes stupid.

 

I agree the longer it drags out, the better it looks for us. But a pair of "home town" locations for almost the same money? Just doesn't feel good. (Sigh)