Article: Using Derek Falvey and Thad Levine's Past to Forecast the Minnesota Twins' 2019 Trade Deadline

[Danchat]

This feels like it was written by the Twins PR department.

 

Until the Twins show that they'll make significant payroll additions, we should correctly assume they won't. This FO refused to add to a playoff caliber team two years, so, until they do, we should assume they won't.

 

My guess is that the Twins do a few minor moves to bring in bullpen help - maybe even taking on a little salary - and losing some prospects in the 15-30 range but nothing bigger than that. I think we'll hear rumors that the Twins are interested/close to making a big move but it won't pan out.

The 2017 team was ok but certainly not playoff caliber, in my opinion. They snuck into a wildcard game and got pounded, and stood little chance of winning a playoff series even if they advanced.

 

I believe in pushing in the chips when the time is right, and I think that time is now. I don’t think 2017 was the right time to buy expensive rental players. And I believe Falvey and Levine will get multiple players who are going to help this team. Plus, without the luxury of August trades, it raises the chance of more moves happening.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Well for starters, we have a Twins Daily writer, in a different thread, confirming that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment, something 23 other teams did last year, even though it would only cost them a $1 million penalty.

Link?

[Vanimal46]

Link?

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/28566-royce-lewis-vs-2017-draftees-update-club/page-3?do=findComment&comment=875138

 

Steve's post on this page.

[Tom Froemming]

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/28566-royce-lewis-vs-2017-draftees-update-club/page-3?do=findComment&comment=875138

Steve's post on this page.

"Impression from his (Darren Wolfson's) responses I have got, was that the Twins do not have permission to spend over their draft pool."

 

Painting that as a Twins Daily writer confirmed that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment is a bit of a stretch.

 

Here's a link to that original Tweet. Nowhere is it stated that the Twins/Pohlads refuse to go over the slot allotment. 

[Matt Braun]

 

What was the price they paid for their new players would be interesting to know. Who were they and how highly regarded/ranked were they? Maybe that would give us Falvey and Levine s risk reward tolerance to project what they would be willing to give up.

Now that would have been a great addition to the article. Unfortunately my knowledge of Texas Rangers prospects from 2010 is limited but the full trade was Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson for Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe. Smoak was a pretty good prospect at the time if I recall correctly but I can't speak about the other guys.

 

The Andrew Miller trade on the other hand was Cleveland giving up great prospects in Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield along with some throw ins in Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen. It would be like if the Twins traded Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, and more for Felipe Vazquez. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

... the full trade was Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson for Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe. Smoak was a pretty good prospect at the time if I recall correctly but I can't speak about the other guys.

Justin Smoak entered the 2010 season as the No. 13 overall prospect according to Baseball America and No. 17 per Baseball Prospectus. 

[Vanimal46]

"Impression from his (Darren Wolfson's) responses I have got, was that the Twins do not have permission to spend over their draft pool."

 

Painting that as a Twins Daily writer confirmed that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment is a bit of a stretch.

 

Here's a link to that original Tweet. Nowhere is it stated that the Twins/Pohlads refuse to go over the slot allotment.

I mean.... Have they ever gone over their draft allotment in team history?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure that's true. Cleveland sold off parts and reduced payroll this offseason despite being the defending division champs and the favorites to repeat.

Cleveland indeed lowered payroll, but I don't think they did it by "selling off parts", at least not in a negative way -- their 3 big offseason trades are pretty easy to justify as "baseball moves" too:

 

- traded Yan Gomes (58 OPS+)

- traded Encarnacion (117 OPS+) and Yandy Diaz (117) for Carlos Santana (149) and Jake Bauers (89)

- traded Alonso (55 OPS+)

 

I think they'd like Diaz back with that production, but it's hard to argue with what Santana is doing right now, cheaper and more flexible than Encarnacion. And the other two deals are the kind that some folks here have applauded the Twins for making the past couple years.

 

On the free agency front, yeah, they definitely should have tried harder to bring back Michael Brantley -- that was the clear, questionable money-conserving move. But otherwise, letting Allen and Miller go seem like more solid baseball moves.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Cleveland indeed lowered payroll, but I don't think they did it by "selling off parts", at least not in a negative way -- their 3 big offseason trades are pretty easy to justify as "baseball moves" too:

 

- traded Yan Gomes (58 OPS+)

- traded Encarnacion (117 OPS+) and Yandy Diaz (117) for Carlos Santana (149) and Jake Bauers (89)

- traded Alonso (55 OPS+)

 

I think they'd like Diaz back with that production, but it's hard to argue with what Santana is doing right now, cheaper and more flexible than Encarnacion. And the other two deals are the kind that some folks here have applauded the Twins for making the past couple years.

 

On the free agency front, yeah, they definitely should have tried harder to bring back Michael Brantley -- that was the clear, questionable money-conserving move. But otherwise, letting Allen and Miller go seem like more solid baseball moves.

Would you agree with this?: "One thing that the Indians and Rangers didn't/don't have is an ownership group like the Pohlads. That is the one factor that I think we need to remember as being in play."

[Mike Sixel]

 

Would you agree with this?: "One thing that the Indians and Rangers didn't/don't have is an ownership group like the Pohlads. That is the one factor that I think we need to remember as being in play."

 

I'm not sure I see a real difference between MN and CLE ownership in terms of payroll over the years. What difference do you see?

[Tom Froemming]

 

I'm not sure I see a real difference between MN and CLE ownership in terms of payroll over the years. What difference do you see?

Me neither, I'm mainly just trying to figure out what Spycake is trying to say.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Don't forget the stupid moving to North Carolina saga

I know Don Beaver, the guy who was trying to buy the Twins. Since I live in North Carolina about 45 minutes north of Charlotte, I was pretty excited about the possibility of having my Twins actually move to within an hour's drive of my home. Alas for me, it was not to be. This doesn't make me a bad person in TD's eyes does it?

[Mr. Brooks]

"Impression from his (Darren Wolfson's) responses I have got, was that the Twins do not have permission to spend over their draft pool."

 

Painting that as a Twins Daily writer confirmed that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment is a bit of a stretch.

 

Here's a link to that original Tweet. Nowhere is it stated that the Twins/Pohlads refuse to go over the slot allotment.

This isn't a court of law.

Steve's impression is good enough for me, especially considering they've never gone over, when the only penalty is money.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would you agree with this?: "One thing that the Indians and Rangers didn't/don't have is an ownership group like the Pohlads. That is the one factor that I think we need to remember as being in play."

No, I just wanted to correct the common misconception that Cleveland "sold off parts" this past winter for primarily budgetary reasons, that's all.

 

If you just want to disagree with that poster, I would simply say the Cleveland payroll and FA spending has tracked pretty close to that of the Twins in recent years.

[Linus]

The weak link in this article is that neither Falvey or Levine were the primary decision makers. We have no idea what their opinions were of the decisions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not sure I see a real difference between MN and CLE ownership in terms of payroll over the years. What difference do you see?

The Twins never cut payroll in the middle of a period of contention. That's a pretty big difference right there.

[Wizard11]

It is kind of stunning to read so many withering criticisms of current ownership. Most of the “supporting” examples reference Carl Pohlad’s ownership. They do not appear relevant as the Twins have clearly been run differently since Jim took over. To me it seems as if virtually every unproductive philosophy the “old Twins regime” had has been thrown out. Hard to believe all of the negativity when we are watching one of the best Twins teams ever, brought to you by people hired by current ownership.

[ChrisKnutson]

While having a significantly better bench than the 2016 Indians definitely increases our chances at a lengthy postseason run, I believe it’s of the upmost importance that we don’t aquire just any reliever, but our own Andrew Miller, and the only guy that I think fits that profile is Felipe Vazquez. It may cost us both Larnach and Gordon, but I think that’s an appropriate price for a team that’s got serious WS aspirations.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I know Don Beaver, the guy who was trying to buy the Twins. Since I live in North Carolina about 45 minutes north of Charlotte, I was pretty excited about the possibility of having my Twins actually move to within an hour's drive of my home. Alas for me, it was not to be. This doesn't make me a bad person in TD's eyes does it?

I think I speak for everyone here when I say:

 

Yes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins never cut payroll in the middle of a period of contention. That's a pretty big difference right there.

The Twins cut payroll in 2008, when we traded Johan and let Torii walk. And they kept it below 2007 levels in 2009 too.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/minnesota-twins/

Edited July 12, 2019 by spycake

[rdehring]

 

I know Don Beaver, the guy who was trying to buy the Twins. Since I live in North Carolina about 45 minutes north of Charlotte, I was pretty excited about the possibility of having my Twins actually move to within an hour's drive of my home. Alas for me, it was not to be. This doesn't make me a bad person in TD's eyes does it?

Do you live near Statesville?  Have spent a few nights there when on our annual trek to Hilton Head each fall.

[SomeGuy]

 

Cleveland indeed lowered payroll, but I don't think they did it by "selling off parts", at least not in a negative way -- their 3 big offseason trades are pretty easy to justify as "baseball moves" too:

 

- traded Yan Gomes (58 OPS+)

- traded Encarnacion (117 OPS+) and Yandy Diaz (117) for Carlos Santana (149) and Jake Bauers (89)

- traded Alonso (55 OPS+)

 

I think they'd like Diaz back with that production, but it's hard to argue with what Santana is doing right now, cheaper and more flexible than Encarnacion. And the other two deals are the kind that some folks here have applauded the Twins for making the past couple years.

 

On the free agency front, yeah, they definitely should have tried harder to bring back Michael Brantley -- that was the clear, questionable money-conserving move. But otherwise, letting Allen and Miller go seem like more solid baseball moves.

Yeah Cleveland didn't really make themselves much worse over the offseason. When they had a poor start to the year many people thought it was because of selling but it was really just bad injury luck. How could any team expect to compete without Clevinger, Kluber, and Carrasco for an extended time? They also had Lindor out for a stretch and Jose Ramirez is finally starting to play at his usual level.

 

Its really impressive the Indians are where they are. If less players or just less important players were to get injured, the Indians are probably the division champ like everyone thought. Its not that the Indians misjudged the Twins state, they just had a serious run of injuries to their most important players. Terry Francona is their MVP.

 

Michael Brantley was the only real loss in the offseason but how does a small market team justify spending that much on a guy they know first hand was always injured? Their trades were good moves.

 

It is scary that the Indians get Kluber, Salazar, and possibly Carrasco back without making any deadline moves. They could do a soft buy and grab a cheap outfielder (someone like Corey Dickerson) and maybe a reliever, and I think they would be a very good team.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

ESPN has this trade as one they predict....

 

2. The Twins acquire LHP Madison Bumgarner and LHP Will Smith from the Giants for OF Alex Kirilloff, LHP Lewis Thorpe and two prospects outside of Minnesota's top 10.

 

They even mention SF possibly adding Melancon to the deal, assuming SF picks up a majority of his salary. Thoughts? For 2 rental players, that is a pretty steep price IMO.

[Rigby]

Zaidi moonlighting as an ESPN writer now?

 

 

ESPN has this trade as one they predict....

 

2. The Twins acquire LHP Madison Bumgarner and LHP Will Smith from the Giants for OF Alex Kirilloff, LHP Lewis Thorpe and two prospects outside of Minnesota's top 10.

 

They even mention SF possibly adding Melancon to the deal, assuming SF picks up a majority of his salary. Thoughts? For 2 rental players, that is a pretty steep price IMO.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Carl started out by buying foreclosed properties (mostly farms) during the Great Depression. He continued to buy failed or failing assets and properties, including banks, land, buildings, etc., throughout his lifetime.

 

 

I always liked to say that Carl Pohlad was the villain of The Grapes of Wrath.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

ESPN has this trade as one they predict....

 

2. The Twins acquire LHP Madison Bumgarner and LHP Will Smith from the Giants for OF Alex Kirilloff, LHP Lewis Thorpe and two prospects outside of Minnesota's top 10.

 

They even mention SF possibly adding Melancon to the deal, assuming SF picks up a majority of his salary. Thoughts? For 2 rental players, that is a pretty steep price IMO.

 

That's an extreme overpay for two rentals. 

[Vanimal46]

That's an extreme overpay for two rentals.

ESPN hasn't been paying attention to the rental trade market the last 2 seasons.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

ESPN hasn't been paying attention to the rental trade market the last 2 seasons.

ESPN doesn't pay much attention to anything but Boston and New York. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm not sure I see a real difference between MN and CLE ownership in terms of payroll over the years. What difference do you see?

 

Well I would say that after Cleveland got their new stadium in the mid 1990's and were good through the decade and into the early 2000's, they were almost always a top 10 payroll team. The Twins have cracked the top 10 once. Recent Cleveland teams haven't been given that luxury though. 

 

The Twins never cut payroll in the middle of a period of contention. That's a pretty big difference right there.

 

Good counterpoint though. They were competitive for a decade and didn't stress the front office about easing back on the throttle. Though, it's not like they were spending all that much to begin with.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

their lone move was acquiring reliever Mark Rzepczynski who definitely made me check my spelling no less than four times when typing his name.

 

M-A-R-C