Article: How Much Will It Cost to Trade for Noah Syndergaard?

[Thrylos]

 

If this site is only a week old, how can it be considered "remarkably accurate?"

 

I checked what it will take to get Bumgarner and Smith from the Giants and Larnach was more than enough according to that site...   

 

I go my doubts about the accuracy of that site

[MN>FL]

 

If this site is only a week old, how can it be considered "remarkably accurate?"

Check out the podcast with the creator of the site, John Bitzer. He was a guest on Effectively Wild by Fangraphs. They took previous trades that were executed and ran it through their simulator and the scores came up out fairly even.  Almost all, if not all GMs incorporate something similar when working out trades so it is a fun tool to have as a fan.  

[HrbekRules]

I would the live the Twins to get a top of the rotation arm, I just don’t think Syndegaard is that anymore, the asking price doesn’t sound reasonable.

[ChrisKnutson]

Syndergaard’s nice, but kinda overrated. Why not just go after Wheeler instead? Wouldn’t cost us all that much, and if he performs well, the FO can always bring him back on an Eovaldi-like deal in the offseason.

[ashbury]

There was a new site launched this week and discussed on a recent Fangraphs podcast. It built an value system for all players to help develop a fair trade. It is remarkably accurate.

 

www.baseballtradevalues.com

With regard to accuracy, I don't see enough examples to rule out cherry-picking. Did they evaluate the recent Encarnacion trade, for instance?

 

I'll speculate that what it accurately reflects is the state of the art with respect to amateur analytics. That's not nothing. It's also not gospel.

[jz7233]

I would not include top three and no Balazovic no Jax no Arraez. I think the better days of Syndergaard are gone.

[Linus]

I don’t know if Syndegaard is the right guy but all prospects should be in play with the possible exception of Graterol and Balazovic

[Squirrel]

I don’t know if Syndegaard is the right guy but all prospects should be in play with the possible exception of Graterol and Balazovic

Yeah. I’m fine with spending prospects but if we are talking about two of our best prospects, that wouldn’t be for Syndergaard imo

[jz7233]

 

I’m keeping Lewis but willing to part with Kirilloff, Graterol, and another low minor arm (though there are some minors pitchers I would prefer to keep).

I have very little to base this on, but my gut tells me that insiders do not have Kirilloff rated as high as the national list makers do.

I think Kirilloff has a better future than Lewis.

[Cornholio]

I checked what it will take to get Bumgarner and Smith from the Giants and Larnach was more than enough according to that site...

 

I go my doubts about the accuracy of that site

I agree about the accuracy of the site, although Bumgarner and Smith are rentals. The site does suggest that the Twins could get Luis Castillo (the pitcher) and Raisel Iglesias for a package of Kirilloff, Duran and Gordon. May have to add a lottery ticket or two, but both have multiple years of control. Would you do that?

[Aerodeliria]

 

Any trade that requires any of Lewis, Graterol, Kirilloff or Balazovic, my answer is no.  Probably means the trade including one of the above will happen tomorrow.

 

But I do doubt something like this will happen.  The reason is that even though this team is on fire, I think Management believes they are still building towards a future a few years out.

I'd add Arraez to the list just because I am very wary of Thor now.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins need to take advantage of this season.

 

The future is too hard to project. While the Indians look like they might be retooling, the White Sox may take a huge step forward with their young starting pitching and some key young position players.

 

The Twins need to be aggressive and get a playoff caliber starting pitcher as well as a late inning reliever this month even if it costs a prized prospect.

Edited July 1, 2019 by jorgenswest

[Bavarian]

Agreed.  I'm doubtful that Thor is that guy at least this season.  Could he get over the recent injuries and be dominant again?  Don't know.  But if the objective is getting a TOR starter or close to it, he isn't it now.  He's middling as a 3rd-4th starter with an ERA over 4 in the NL.  Just not getting it done.

 

No better Scandihoovian type to wear a Twins jersey - looks like a Viking but I'm passing.

[SomeGuy]

It will be interesting how the agent turned GM will approach the trade deadline.  Especially after how aggressive he was going all in during the offseason. He was pretty strict about winning now and probably has the same mentality about 2020.

 

I'm guessing its rentals only from them, Frazier, Vargas, Wheeler, etc.

Edited July 1, 2019 by SomeGuy

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Let's see what Wes Johnson can do with all these young minor league pitchers who are already in the Twins' system. But before I traded any minor league players, I would re-read the recent article on the Twins minor league players who will be rule 5 eligible and try to trade low ceiling , Rule 5 eligible players and low ceiling players on the 40 man roster. Low ceiling. Rule 5. 40 man roster. A thousand points of light.

Edited July 1, 2019 by tarheeltwinsfan

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It will almost definitely have to include Lewis. There was a new site launched this week and discussed on a recent Fangraphs podcast. It built an value system for all players to help develop a fair trade. It is remarkably accurate.

 

www.baseballtradevalues.com

 

Based on the site, Lewis/Rooker/Arraez should get it done. 

That's a cool site, and it's certainly better to use that as a rough estimator of trade packages than simply packaging all of the Twins injured or under-performing minor leaguers.

 

But that site can't account for context. Just because the White Sox traded Sale for prospect package X doesn't mean another team will trade a pitcher equivalent to Sale for an equivalent prospect package Y. The White Sox were in a position where they valued the prospects more than Sale; the Mets, Reds, and Nationals probably aren't.

[Tommygun921]

Only pitcher I'd trade multiple high prospects for is Max Scherzer and.....well that's about it. I'd have a hard time giving up Lewis and/or Kiriloff for a pitcher that hasn't shown he can pitch 30+ starts consistently.

[Tomj14]

 

I would not include top three and no Balazovic no Jax no Arraez. I think the better days of Syndergaard are gone.

He is 26 and has been as good if not better than Cole. If people aren't willing to trade for him, there isn't anybody they would be willing to trade for.

 

[JW24]

There is an awful lot of concern that a 26-year-old, who was formerly one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, is too risky to take a chance on, which seems short-sighted to me.

 

The Mets are not exactly a cutting-edge organization. They just hired an 82-year-old as their new pitching coach. I would be willing to see what the Twins organization is able to do with Syndergaard to help him return to his previous form. If anything, the Twins might be buying low on a guy who has yet to realize his full potential, and has team control remaining.

 

Wes Johnson helped turn Martin Perez into a serviceable (above average?) starting pitcher this season. I have faith Syndergaard would see improvement with the Twins as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Re: www.baseballtradevalues.com

 

FWIW, they currently assign Pressly a $27.4 mil median trade value, versus $4.5 mil combined for Alcala and Celestino.

 

Yes, I know that includes Pressly's extension. Looking at relievers currently controlled for 1.5 years:

 

Yates 18

Giles 10.7

Greene 9.6

Colome 6.5

Jared Hughes 2.2

Dyson 0.3

 

I wouldn't have put Pressly last year as high as Yates, but probably close to the Greene/Giles neighborhood (Pressly's salary was cheaper than both).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 If anything, the Twins might be buying low on a guy who has yet to realize his full potential, and has team control remaining.

That assumes the Mets are willing to sell low. Especially given their circumstances, where they're already invested in competing now and the foreseeable future, I don't think they will.

[Tomj14]

 

There is an awful lot of concern that a 26-year-old, who was formerly one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, is too risky to take a chance on, which seems short-sighted to me.

 

The Mets are not exactly a cutting-edge organization. They just hired an 82-year-old as their new pitching coach. I would be willing to see what the Twins organization is able to do with Syndergaard to help him return to his previous form. If anything, the Twins might be buying low on a guy who has yet to realize his full potential, and has team control remaining.

 

Wes Johnson helped turn Martin Perez into a serviceable (above average?) starting pitcher this season. I have faith Syndergaard would see improvement with the Twins as well.

I will add to the fact that some of the offers people are making are so ridiculously low it would be a slap in the face to the Mets.

It would be like somebody calling the Twins and offering Graterol, Gonsalves, Gordon and Stewart for Berrios and telling the Twins they are getting an amazing deal.(you know because like 3 years ago these guys were top 5 team prospects)

[Tomj14]

 

That assumes the Mets are willing to sell low. Especially given their circumstances, where they're already invested in competing now and the foreseeable future, I don't think they will.

Why would the Mets sell low? controllable 26/27 year old pitcher with a career WAR of 12.7 (almost twice that of Berrios) not to mention throws in the upper 90's?

[JW24]

 

That assumes the Mets are willing to sell low. Especially given their circumstances, where they're already invested in competing now and the foreseeable future, I don't think they will.

 

The Mets would be selling lower right now than what it would have cost to acquire him 2 years ago. The asking price is going to be steep, and I wasn't trying to imply the Mets will just give him away. With the amount of team control remaining, the Mets need a significant offer to even consider it. My comment was meant to imply the Twins would be trading for someone who has a higher ceiling than what we have seen from him yet, hence the "buying low".

[Jham]

Probably easier to just taste in your twins gear and cheer for the Mets...

 

Any team with degrom, thor, and wheeler has a chance if they get can get in. And if not, that's not a tear-down. That's a keep adding scenario. Only way to get Degrom or Thor is to offer multiple prospects who figure to be at least that good in the next couple years. I don't think we have any players like that. Not even Lewis.

[USAFChief]

 

He is 26 and has been as good if not better than Cole. If people aren't willing to trade for him, there isn't anybody they would be willing to trade for.

Nitpic: He's almost 27.

 

The problem, of course ,is everything is trending the wrong way with Syndergaard.

 

If you pay for the Syndergaard of 2016, there's a pretty reasonable chance you will be disappointed. 

 

I'm all for trading for help, and depending on the price, wouldn't be opposed to Syndergaard. But I'm just not sure the substance is greater than the name. And I don't think he's been better than Cole. Cole's a year older, but has been much healthier, for one thing. 

 

So yeah...trade for Syndergaard. But only if you can get him for what he's likely worth.

[Tomj14]

 

Nitpic: He's almost 27.

 

The problem, of course ,is everything is trending the wrong way with Syndergaard.

 

If you pay for the Syndergaard of 2016, there's a pretty reasonable chance you will be disappointed. 

 

I'm all for trading for help, and depending on the price, wouldn't be opposed to Syndergaard. But I'm just not sure the substance is greater than the name. And I don't think he's been better than Cole. Cole's a year older, but has been much healthier, for one thing. 

 

So yeah...trade for Syndergaard. But only if you can get him for what he's likely worth.

He is will be 27 in August.

To clarify I meant better than Cole when Pit traded him.

I agree "pretty reasonable chance you will be disappointed.", but I would add there is a larger chance we will be disappointed in the players that weren't traded.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Tomj14

[cmoss84]

I would be shocked if the Mets traded Thor. But it would be amazing if we could land him, and have him and Berrios as our 1-2 punches in a playoff push...as well as for the next 2 years. 

 

A trade might look something like this:

(Mets choose 1 player from each pool)

 

1-Lewis or Kiriloff

2-Graterol or Balazovic

3-Arraez or Gordon

 

We have the depth to do this, along with trading for 2 relief pieces. If you don't go all in now, when? 

[cmoss84]

Thoracic Outlet Syndrome:

 

When Noah Syndergaard gets traded to us and relieves pressure in our bullpen. 

[Tomj14]

 

I would be shocked if the Mets traded Thor. But it would be amazing if we could land him, and have him and Berrios as our 1-2 punches in a playoff push...as well as for the next 2 years. 

 

A trade might look something like this:

(Mets choose 1 player from each pool)

 

1-Lewis or Kiriloff

2-Graterol or Balazovic

3-Arraez or Gordon

 

We have the depth to do this, along with trading for 2 relief pieces. If you don't go all in now, when? 

based on fan graphs board (link from Mike)
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list?sort=-1,1&team=min

 

The left hand side is Twins 1,3, 6 prospect

The right hand side is 2, 11, 20

Which would mean by fan graphs ranking the two options are not close.

the right hand side should have Javier (5) or Miranda (9) because he is also a second basemen like Arraez and Duran (7) instead of Balazovic and Gordon.