Could Sano Be a Trade Chip?

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Great idea.  With the proviso that major league pitching is better than AAA pitching, and its a small sample size, but let's look at Sano's batting performance vs Astudillo's recent batting performance.  

 

Astudillo has had 38 at bats since he was sent down to Rochester.  Here are some stats for Astudillo's and Sano's last 38 at bats.  Sano's best days are behind him, and he is error prone.  If the Twins can get a good reliever, we should trade.  

 

Batting Average

 

Astudillo:  .525

Sano:   .225

 

OPS:  

 

Astudillo:  1.288

Sano:  .560

 

RBI:

 

Astudillo:  18

Sano:  2

 

Strike Outs:

 

Astudillo:  1

Sano: 18

 

Interesting that you choose their last 38 AB's, despite the fact they were at completely different levels.  How about this breakdown instead?  Astudillo in MLB since May 12 (72 PA's), Sano since May 25 (73 PA's).

 

Batting Average: Astudillo .224, Sano .203

 

OBP: Astudillo .250, Sano .301

 

SLG: Astudillo .299, Sano .375

 

OPS: Astudillo .549, Sano .676

 

HR's: Astudillo 1, Sano 2

 

wRC+: Astudillo 41, Sano 80

 

wOBA: Astudillo .236, Sano .294

 

Soft Contact Rate: Astudillo 24.6%, Sano 6.1%

 

Hard Contact Rate: Astudillo 29.2%, Sano 54.6%

 

Sano is 26 and is actually almost 2 years younger than Astudillo.  His best days are in all likelihood in front of him, not behind him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not sure why the two prevailing board options only seem to be:

 

1. Sano is fine!

 

2. Sano is horrible, trade him!

 

Besides, "Sano is horrible, trade him!" is a completely illogical way to approach the problem. If he's bad and should be traded, his value is at an all-time low.

 

But if he gets better, he's no longer terrible and should not be traded.

 

It's literally Catch-22.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8rwDiAXKfY

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Once again, I agree with you, I wouldn't move him right now because you would get a bucket of balls for him. There's little upside to making that move right now.

 

However, if you can't see why people would want to move on, you're being as ignorant as those fairweather fans you mentioned. 

 

Actually, since there's real, statistical evidence that supports keeping Sano, it's not being ignorant.  If you don't think Sano is cutting it, then we should also be looking to move on from Rosario, Schoop, Adrianza, Gonzalez, and Astudillo.  All 5 of those players have a lower OPS and wRC+ than Sano.

[SomeGuy]

I would rather trade Jonathon Schoop.  He is a pending free agent and Arraez seems ready to take over.

 

Flip him for a prospect or 2 to lessen the amount we will lose in other trades.

[Han Joelo]

 

I'm not sure why the two prevailing board options only seem to be:

 

1. Sano is fine!

 

2. Sano is horrible, trade him!

 

Besides, "Sano is horrible, trade him!" is a completely illogical way to approach the problem. If he's bad and should be traded, his value is at an all-time low.

 

But if he gets better, he's no longer terrible and should not be traded.

 

It's literally Catch-22.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8rwDiAXKfY

 

 

This is great.  Got sucked into watching the whole thing.  It ends with an airplane crashing while Lt. Minderbinder is trying to explain to General Mikelink why WRC+  and OPS are so gosh darn important.

[Doomtints]

I still consider Sano to be a young guy and his struggles right now are exactly what I expect to see from a young slugger, so yes he is doing OK.

 

Sano playing as well as he did out of the gate this year was the real surprise.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm not sure why the two prevailing board options only seem to be:

 

1. Sano is fine!

 

2. Sano is horrible, trade him!

 

Besides, "Sano is horrible, trade him!" is a completely illogical way to approach the problem. If he's bad and should be traded, his value is at an all-time low.

 

But if he gets better, he's no longer terrible and should not be traded.

 

It's literally Catch-22.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8rwDiAXKfY

 

I really think there's a lot of talking past each other. Even people defending Sano wouldn't say that his plate discipline is fine... 

 

The question at hand to me is:

1) Can he improve?

2) Can we get him there?

 

If we cannot get him there, then we may as well trade him (and note there's a much bigger problem if we cannot get him there). He'd get something due to his potential, but not much I suspect. As for question 1, he's had success, so I have to say yes.

 

That said, I do not understand why we would trade him. The closest thing we have in the high minors to a 3B would be Blankenhorn in AA. It's doubtful he's ready now, and moving Marwin to 3B pretty much eliminates all that flexibility that we all love and makes Astrudillo the primary 10th man. He's not as good as Marwin… not even close. 

 

That's why you don't trade Sano. I think this team needs to do something to fix him. He's got an option (I think), so perhaps sending him down for 15 days and seeing if he can figure it out in AAA. Calling him up at that point doesn't cost the option... but the Twins without question need to get him on track. 

[In My La Z boy]

I agree with everyone. He stinks & he is awesome. We should trade him. We should keep him. He strikes out too much. Strikeouts don't matter. He rarely hits the ball. When he hits the ball, he hits it HARD.

I found myself liking positive posts on him. I also liked negative posts on him. I am conflicted. I am not conflicted. Yes...I am conflicted. Waitress....

[Craig Arko]

I’ll just say I would not be shocked if Sano is optioned to AAA when Gonzalez returns from the IL.

[Rosterman]

As long as he can lay third base and show better-than-average power, you play him. If he really shines, you think about trading him. First off, you need people who want him more than a free-agent they can sign for money, or a prospect in their own system. And one has to think longterm. Do you want him at firstbase or designated hitter. And at what cost as he ends arbitration and nears free agency.

 

I would tie-up Berrios, Buxton and Rosario sooner rather than later.

 

Castro, Pineda, Odorizzi, Gibson, Schoop will be gone in the off-season unless you feel the need to throw lots of money at any of them. I'm sure what it would take to keep Odorizzi, but the season might be a fluke. Sadly the Twins are in contention so NONE of them are true tradebait. Wait, maybe Castro, who I would market to anyone needing a catcher, and bring up Willians as the backup for good.

[Tomj14]

I don't want to trade any of the guys on the major league roster, I want the Twins to supplement them with bullpen arms from outside the organization.

That being said if some team wants to trade us an ace pitcher with some control and they require Sano, I do it.

I will also add I believe you should trade from areas of strength and currently I don't believe third base is an area of strength for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

Without being blown away, there is no chance I would trade Sano if I was the FO. I really don't get this....

[alarp33]

 

Otherwise, let Sano hit 35 homers a year.

 

Just curious, when exactly does that start? 

 

 

Pointing to his season OPS is being so intentionally obtuse. The sample size is way to small, and if you want to make it even smaller he has 3 XBH since June 4 in 11 games (42 at bats), with 21 strike outs. The eye test is somehow even worse than those numbers. Major league pitchers make adjustments, and right now Sano is unable or unwilling to match those adjustments. 

 

I wouldn't trade Sano, because his value has to be at an all time low. But to continue to act like there is a star in there is such a reach. He has tremendous power, and that's it at this point. I hope I'm wrong and he can eventually make the needed adjustments, but right now he doesn't look like a major league hitter and hasn't in quite some time. Outside of his 11 games in May, the last month he had an OPS of .800 was May of 2017

[USAFChief]

 

As long as he can lay third base and show better-than-average power, you play him. If he really shines, you think about trading him. First off, you need people who want him more than a free-agent they can sign for money, or a prospect in their own system. And one has to think longterm. Do you want him at firstbase or designated hitter. And at what cost as he ends arbitration and nears free agency.

 

I would tie-up Berrios, Buxton and Rosario sooner rather than later.

 

Castro, Pineda, Odorizzi, Gibson, Schoop will be gone in the off-season unless you feel the need to throw lots of money at any of them. I'm sure what it would take to keep Odorizzi, but the season might be a fluke. Sadly the Twins are in contention so NONE of them are true tradebait. Wait, maybe Castro, who I would market to anyone needing a catcher, and bring up Willians as the backup for good.

Yes, it's truly a shame.

[blindeke]

more importantly: who would everyone piss and moan about if we traded him?

[Mike Sixel]

 

more importantly: who would everyone piss and moan about if we traded him?

 

I'm sure everyone was wondering that after Mauer retired.....don't underestimate this board's ability to find a player to post about every week....

[yarnivek1972]

As I have said in other threads, I expect the Twins will stand pat with Sano. I don’t think they will actively shop him (although they would surely listen to an offer with his name in it). I also don’t think they will look to extend him. He continues to show that he is a piece, not a corner stone.

 

I think he will do his time with the Twins and then the FO will allow someone else to make a Chris Davis type mistake with him.

[ashbury]

more importantly: who would everyone piss and moan about if we traded him?

 

I'm sure everyone was wondering that after Mauer retired.....don't underestimate this board's ability to find a player to post about every week....

Moderator's note: Folks, let's please not make the discussion be about fellow posters.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If Sano were a chip, would he eat himself?

It’s a simple question Norm! Don’t jerk me around!

[nicksaviking]

I still think Sano has promise, but I’d be open to trading him. Not until the off season though, like him or not, he’s still good depth AND is at a low trade value point.

[DJL44]

I feel like a Sano trade would be Lawton for Reed all over again

[yarnivek1972]

I feel like a Sano trade would be Lawton for Reed all over again

The Twins don’t win the AL Central in 2002 without Rick Reed. And Lawton was really never an impactful player after the trade the way he was in his final 2 1/2 seasons as a Twin.

[wavedog]

 

Pretty convenient (and statistically indefensible) that you mention his 102 PAs in 2019, but ignored his career stats. For his career, Sano is consistent regardless of leverage. 

 

The only positive to all the Sano-bashing on here is that it breaks the monotony of bullpen-bashing.

Who is Sano bashing?  I am for keeping to play him.   I was explaining his stats THIS year and why some people might be frustrated with his performance in high-leverage situations.   Hoping he does return to his previous career norms.   

[Mr. Brooks]

Who is Sano bashing? I am for keeping to play him. I was explaining his stats THIS year and why some people might be frustrated with his performance in high-leverage situations. Hoping he does return to his previous career norms.

Because the sample size of his leverage stats for this season are far too small to even come close to stabilize.