Kimbrel to Nationals about to happen

[ppearson50]

"Heard Nationals/Kimbrel is “further down the road” than reported" @keithlaw

 

Sounds like Kimbrel is soon to be gone to the Nationals. Any chance that we circle back to sign Gio Gonzalez or Dallas Keuchel since the only sure thing in the starting rotation for next year is Berrios. It still boggles my mind that we have improved the offense a ton this offseason but have basically only added Perez and Parker on small deals for the pitching staff. 

 

 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

"Heard Nationals/Kimbrel is “further down the road” than reported" @keithlaw

 

Sounds like Kimbrel is soon to be gone to the Nationals. Any chance that we circle back to sign Gio Gonzalez or Dallas Keuchel since the only sure thing in the starting rotation for next year is Berrios. It still boggles my mind that we have improved the offense a ton this offseason but have basically only added Perez and Parker on small deals for the pitching staff.

I agree, but my guess is the rotation won’t get help until the trade deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

It's hard to believe this team prioritized improving DH and 1B over pitching....

[jorgenswest]

It's hard to believe this team prioritized improving DH and 1B over pitching....

Certainly with the pocketbook. I would have spent the budget differently.

 

Behind the scenes with the new staff and tech they certainly seem to prioritize pitching. They seem very invested in moving all of their current assets forward. I am very interested to see how it plays out.

[Twodogs]

I have been adamant that they needed to shore up that bullpen all off-season. But when looking at how many close losses they had last year, maybe they feel as though they can compete with a stronger lineup? If all things remain the same, more runs wins more games. After watching Buxton hit 3 dingers and watching Schoop hit an absolute blast yesterday, I'm thinking that the Twins brass is looking at it like if they are in the running come July, they will make some trades at the deadline to fix the problems so as to make a playoff run? Thats the only way I can see it as of right now? Otherwise I have no idea what they are doing.

[cardsfan]

When I think of Kimbrel I think of Melancon. Perhaps, he has a good year or two left.

[cmoss84]

Sounds like Kimbrel has been asking for around 4/80 or 5/100. I would love getting him, no matter what it would cost. 

 

...but I could see many of you having a heart attack if we signed him for that. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

Certainly with the pocketbook. I would have spent the budget differently.

Behind the scenes with the new staff and tech they certainly seem to prioritize pitching. They seem very invested in moving all of their current assets forward. I am very interested to see how it plays out.

I think the Twins are put in the unenviable position of having 4 starters who slated to make the rotation (none beyond Berrios slated to be top of the rotation), and having 5 or so AAA/AA SPs who need mlb exposure to know what they have.  So I understand the wariness of locking in any more starting pitching (even with only Berrios returning).  Some of these guys will be pushed to the bullpen (as Romero already has been), but the lack of bullpen help acquired is truly inexplicable.   

[nicksaviking]

I wanted a bunch of the free agent relievers, but it's starting to look like the team thinks Wes Johnson is a bigger addition than anyone on the market; there will be crow to eat if that's not the case though. The Twins clearly passed on the relievers due to philosophical or strategic reasons not financial reasons because the bullpen arms were dirt cheap; plenty of good ones even had to settle for MiLB deals. I would have been happy with Clippard, Norris and Warren; I think they all got veteran MiLB deals, which are traditionally right in the Twins wheelhouse.

 

I would have liked some new rotation help but I have a hard time finding fault with how that turned out since I personally didn't like any of the free agents and it appears no teams were trading any good starters this past winter.

[ChrisKnutson]

I’m predicting he’ll get something close to 4/68 (higher AAV than Jansen) (still a pretty lengthy commitment for a reliever), hopefully it’s with the Twins. But if not, I’m still open to us bringing in Madson on a 1 year deal.

 

When it comes to starters, I don’t get why we aren’t even interested in Keuchel (as far as I know), or at least Gonzalez. Looking into next year’s FA class the only guy I think would be a good realistic fit for a competitive Twins team is Porcello, but I have a feeling that the Sox will find a way to retain him which why I think we need Keuchel now. I mean, after watching Odorizzi last season (nothing against him, I’d actually keep him around), I now realize the importance of having someone in the rotation who can give us consistent quality/length, Keuchel provides this and stands a good chance at doing so for the next 5-6 years mainly because he doesn’t rely on velocity to get outs.

 

I really don’t care which one we sign, I just want one of them. Although if it were my decision, I’d sign Keuchel and Madson as a way of shoring up the early/middle/late innings.

[adorduan]

 

I have been adamant that they needed to shore up that bullpen all off-season. But when looking at how many close losses they had last year, maybe they feel as though they can compete with a stronger lineup? If all things remain the same, more runs wins more games. After watching Buxton hit 3 dingers and watching Schoop hit an absolute blast yesterday, I'm thinking that the Twins brass is looking at it like if they are in the running come July, they will make some trades at the deadline to fix the problems so as to make a playoff run? Thats the only way I can see it as of right now? Otherwise I have no idea what they are doing.

 I just don't get this mentality.  Seems backwards to me. The games in april-jun count just as much as the games after.  Why not shore up the bullpen for the whole season instead of half?  The cost can just be $$ instead of players/prospects.  And if they are out of contention come July, they can sell the players and hopefully recover some of their value.

[nytwinsfan]

 

It's hard to believe this team prioritized improving DH and 1B over pitching....

I don't think you have any basis to conclude they prioritized that, although even if they did, it isn't like Joe Mauer and Logan Morrison killed it last year anyway . . .

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Certainly with the pocketbook. I would have spent the budget differently.

 

Behind the scenes with the new staff and tech they certainly seem to prioritize pitching. They seem very invested in moving all of their current assets forward. I am very interested to see how it plays out.

why not both. Improving the coaching infrastructure was critical to the offseason.... so was improving the talent.

[mike8791]

It's hard to believe this team prioritized improving DH and 1B over pitching....

I don't think you have any basis to conclude they prioritized that, although even if they did, it isn't like Joe Mauer and Logan Morrison killed it last year anyway . . .

 

Well of course they prioritized offense:  Cruz, Cron, Schoop, Gonzales, even Duda possibly.  Compare that to Perez and Parker.  In a previous blog, I mentioned assigning a B-B+ grade for offense but close to a D grade for the pitching side.  This offseason has been so frustrating because good relievers were available at very reasonable prices, the Twins had a surplus of money, and our 2018 year-end bullpen was atrocious.  Duh!!!  No brainer to most TD fans, except to the Wonder Boys in the FO.  No excuse for this inaction, although Falvine lamely tried to justify this by basically saying the window wasn't open enough to strike now. 

 

This is just hogwash!  You open the window in the offseason via the FA or Trade route, unless it is obvious the team is in a rebuilding phase.  Clearly, the Twins feel this is not the case, otherwise, why address the offense so strongly?  Waiting until the July trade deadline to fortify an obviously mediocre bullpen is a fool's errand, given how many games this bullpen is likely to blow in the first 4 months of the season.  Sort of a Catch 22 situation they have set up here and if the team is out of playoff contention by July 31st, the FO has no one to blame but themselves. 

 

If they had a playoff-caliber bullpen and were in the race come the trade deadline, then bolstering the rotation by adding an ace(or even #2 starter) would be the right thing.  There just wasn't(and still isn't) much in the way of starting pitching improvements in the offseason who could slot ahead of Berrios, et. al.

I think it safe to say that a majority on TD see this two-pronged action as the most preferred one, given the state of the roster and the Central Division.  Why the FO mindset doesn't seem to agree has many of us mystified and discouraged about their future success.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sounds like Kimbrel has been asking for around 4/80 or 5/100. I would love getting him, no matter what it would cost.

 

...but I could see many of you having a heart attack if we signed him for that.

Hardest of hard passes at those prices.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm torn.

 

Even though I advocate for some aggressive spending, even I don't like investing that much in relief pitchers -- but Kimbrel's been pretty darn good.

 

On the other hand, he's already 30, and was shaky in the postseason last year. Edit to add: and if we were willing to spend at all on relievers, there were probably several better buys available earlier in the offseason...

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Padres and Red Sox were each able to trade for Kimbrel, in his prime, for ultimately a pretty a modest cost.

 

Is there any reliever out there available in trade? Unfortunately the Mariners tied Edwin Diaz to Robinson Cano this winter...

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I think the Twins are put in the unenviable position of having 4 starters who slated to make the rotation (none beyond Berrios slated to be top of the rotation), and having 5 or so AAA/AA SPs who need mlb exposure to know what they have.  So I understand the wariness of locking in any more starting pitching (even with only Berrios returning).  Some of these guys will be pushed to the bullpen (as Romero already has been), but the lack of bullpen help acquired is truly inexplicable.   

 

I can understand this. That is why if going after help for the BP or the rotation, you grab stuff for the front of the line, not the back. Maybe they will be in on the top names come the deadline if they are in the race. That is what I would hope for at this point in time. 

[howieramone2]

 

It's hard to believe this team prioritized improving DH and 1B over pitching....

They didn't. That's just the way it worked out. 

[howieramone2]

 

Sounds like Kimbrel has been asking for around 4/80 or 5/100. I would love getting him, no matter what it would cost. 

 

...but I could see many of you having a heart attack if we signed him for that. 

I heard 5/80 or 6/100. He's nuts if he thinks a closer is going to get top tier starting pitching money. Hope he sits out.

[cmoss84]

 

I heard 5/80 or 6/100. He's nuts if he thinks a closer is going to get top tier starting pitching money. Hope he sits out.

I'm guessing he gets closer to 15-17/year as well...

 

The winning bidder is going to have to risk years 4 and 5. If no team is willing to do so, you might see 20/year for 3 years. 

[howieramone2]

I posted this before let me post agaln. Of the 15 highest paid relievers in 2018 free agency, none earned more than 1 WAR. Am I the only one who noticed relievers once referred to as dumpster driving are now considered good or even above average relievers. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I heard 5/80 or 6/100. He's nuts if he thinks a closer is going to get top tier starting pitching money. Hope he sits out.

I'm not sure $80-100 mil is "top tier starting pitcher money" anymore (depends on your definitions) but I agree it's steep for a relievers, especially in the current market climate.

[nicksaviking]

 

It's hard to believe this team prioritized improving DH and 1B over pitching....

I don't think you have any basis to conclude they prioritized that, although even if they did, it isn't like Joe Mauer and Logan Morrison killed it last year anyway . . .

 

Well of course they prioritized offense:  Cruz, Cron, Schoop, Gonzales, even Duda possibly.  Compare that to Perez and Parker.  In a previous blog, I mentioned assigning a B-B+ grade for offense but close to a D grade for the pitching side.  This offseason has been so frustrating because good relievers were available at very reasonable prices, the Twins had a surplus of money, and our 2018 year-end bullpen was atrocious.  Duh!!!  No brainer to most TD fans, except to the Wonder Boys in the FO.  No excuse for this inaction, although Falvine lamely tried to justify this by basically saying the window wasn't open enough to strike now. 

 

I think you're mis-interpreting the situation. Lavine implied they weren't signing big ticket free agents because the window wasn't open, I'm fairly sure he wasn't talking about the relief market which was bottoming out. It's not like the Twins mis-allocated their off season free agent budget because signing most of the available relievers would not have made a significant impact on the budget. This wasn't a financial issue.

 

They must believe that what they have in house is better or can be fixed than most of what was available. Personally, I don't see it, and I would have liked three new bullpen pieces, which would have been easily do-able and affordable, so I hope they know what they're doing.

 

But one thing I do know, I don't want the front office doing things that are a "no brainer to most TD fans" and making decisions based on fan consensus. That sounds like an awful idea, they've got better intel than the fans do. Implying we know better than the front office always makes me cringe, even when I disagree with them, which I am, right now.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I posted this before let me post agaln. Of the 15 highest paid relievers in 2018 free agency, none earned more than 1 WAR.

I'm not sure of your data source, but the MLBTR Free Agent tracker and B-Ref disagree:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018-mlb-free-agent-tracker/sort_column-aav__sort_direction-0__positions-rp

 

From the top 15 RP names in that list (so, not counting SP Mike Minor), there are 5 guys who recorded more than 1 WAR at B-Ref: Morrow, Hunter, Cishek, Petit, and Davis. (Edit to add: I sorted by AAV, but sorting by total amount yields the same 5 names in the top 15.) Davis was the only one of those 5 below 1.4 WAR. Cishek even had 2.3. (Neshek among the top 15 also posted 0.8 WAR in just half a season of work.)

 

Just beyond the top 15, the 16th guy in that list (Rodney) posted 1.0 WAR, and the 17th guy posted 0.9 WAR too, and they only earned ~$4.5 mil each. They may not strictly meet your "more than 1 WAR" criteria, but those are still good deals.

 

It wasn't a good year for a few higher-profile FA relievers, but good teams can still find benefits in this general group. The Cubs, Phillies, A's, and even Astros all did pretty well with FA relievers. The Rockies? Not so much.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I heard 5/80 or 6/100. He's nuts if he thinks a closer is going to get top tier starting pitching money. Hope he sits out.

 

I don't think it's ever good for baseball when ML difference makers sit out. Just my two cents.

[DiscGolfer]

I wonder how many teams would be in on the bidding for him if he's willing to sing a shorter term deal 2/3 years instead of 4/5.  Not sure what the $$ would be for the short term deal.  If he'd take a 2 year deal I'd like to see the Twins sign him.  But not interested in 4/5 years.  I think there are other ways to build a bullpen than overpaying for a reliever who may be starting to decline in production.

[nicksaviking]

 

I wonder how many teams would be in on the bidding for him if he's willing to sing a shorter term deal 2/3 years instead of 4/5.  Not sure what the $$ would be for the short term deal.  If he'd take a 2 year deal I'd like to see the Twins sign him.  But not interested in 4/5 years.  I think there are other ways to build a bullpen than overpaying for a reliever who may be starting to decline in production.

 

According to La Velle, the Twins are in on Kimbrel and Keuchel on one year deals only.

 

A one year for Keuchel is all I'd want too. I'd like Kimbrel on a three year deal though.

[Monkeypaws]

The Twins top 3 all time save leaders are Nathan, Aguilera, and Guardado. None of them profiled as a closer when the Twins acquired them. It is within the realm of possibility that May, or Romero will follow a similar path. They certainly have the stuff to close.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think you have any basis to conclude they prioritized that, although even if they did, it isn't like Joe Mauer and Logan Morrison killed it last year anyway . . .

Other than they spent nearly all their free agent money there, and almost none on pitching....