Manny Machado to the Padres

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I would be pretty ecstatic that a top FA signed with a small market team but I will be within three years either the player, team, or both will be trying to get out of that contract and SD will trade him to one of the 3-4 big boys for nothing.

Machado is only 26, what indication is there that he won't continue to be very good for the next 6-8 seasons? That leaves only 2,3 years of "too bad we have this deal". I'll take that.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Machado is only 26, what indication is there that he won't continue to be very good for the next 6-8 seasons? That leaves only 2,3 years of "too bad we have this deal". I'll take that.

 

He'll likely be quite good but my guess is Machado gets tired of losing pretty quickly and demands a trade or the Padres decide they can lose with or without him so they may as well save money and try and dump him.

[h2oface]

 

Pujols was older, and was a DH. It's like specifics don't matter at all....

 Pujols wasn't a DH when they signed him, from the National League. That happened over time and injuries and age, well after the contract.

[Thrylos]

 

Yeah, interesting to see how an also-ran, below-.500 club with a shaky core just went out and signed Manny to the biggest contract in the history of American sports. Looks like they weren't concerned about a "competition window", they just saw a great player and grabbed him. Good for San Diego.

 

This particular team has also the top minor league system in baseball, plus it is situated in a community where the cost of living and salaries are 77.5% higher than the US Average (compared to +16.4% for Minneapolis and +18% for Chicago.)

San Diego is not a small market or a bad team by any means.

[Danchat]

 

He'll likely be quite good but my guess is Machado gets tired of losing pretty quickly and demands a trade or the Padres decide they can lose with or without him so they may as well save money and try and dump him.

Right now my prediction is that Machado will get traded in about 3 years' time because the Padres will be slashing payroll and he'll want to play for somebody better but hasn't reach his opt-out yes. And yes, there's precedent for this - Giancarlo Stanton got traded 3 years into his 13 year $325M deal with the Marlins. I do hope San Diego can be good for the first time... I've never seen them make the playoffs!

[Thrylos]

 

 I do hope San Diego can be good for the first time... I've never seen them make the playoffs!

 

They made the post season 5 times, including 4 in the Bruce Bochy era (1995-2006).  This includes a trip to the World Series in 1998 (where they lost to the Yankees.) 

 

So indeed, you never seen them make the playoffs (no playoffs in baseball) but you were not watching when they made the postseason

[TheLeviathan]

 

Get your 6 WAR from two players for half the Manny price. Go get another 5 or 6 from two more, and get 2 each from another four.

 

You are largely ignoring and side-stepping Mike's point.  The Twins did not get 20 WAR from any combination of 8 guys last year.  They got 14 from their best 8. 

 

The problem with your entire post is that it's ridiculously unfair.  You're not even attempting something approaching an objective, fair analysis. You assume the worst about the Padre situation with Machado and potential for injury and assume the best for the Twins.  Statistically speaking, there is no merit to the idea the Twins are sitting on 20 WAR with any combination of players but for best case scenario.

 

The issue with not having superstars is it requires many players to simultaneously have kick-ass seasons.  Sure, that can happen.  It's also unlikely.  When you plug a consistent force into your lineup, it reduces the risk you face when other players struggle and increases your upside if those players succeed.

 

There are reasons to be a skeptic about a deal like this, but you did not lay out a fair, and thus, a not at all convincing case.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Right now my prediction is that Machado will get traded in about 3 years' time because the Padres will be slashing payroll and he'll want to play for somebody better but hasn't reach his opt-out yes. And yes, there's precedent for this - Giancarlo Stanton got traded 3 years into his 13 year $325M deal with the Marlins. I do hope San Diego can be good for the first time... I've never seen them make the playoffs!

I remember them in the 1984 WS. They got steam rolled by a very good Tigers team. The highlight for them was in game 2, their only win, Kurt Bevaqua with a 3 run HR to lead the come from behind win. It was a fast death after that for SD.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

You are largely ignoring and side-stepping Mike's point.  The Twins did not get 20 WAR from any combination of 8 guys last year.  They got 14 from their best 8. 

 

The problem with your entire post is that it's ridiculously unfair.  You're not even attempting something approaching an objective, fair analysis. You assume the worst about the Padre situation with Machado and potential for injury and assume the best for the Twins.  Statistically speaking, there is no merit to the idea the Twins are sitting on 20 WAR with any combination of players but for best case scenario.

 

The issue with not having superstars is it requires many players to simultaneously have kick-ass seasons.  Sure, that can happen.  It's also unlikely.  When you plug a consistent force into your lineup, it reduces the risk you face when other players struggle and increases your upside if those players succeed.

 

There are reasons to be a skeptic about a deal like this, but you did not lay out a fair, and thus, a not at all convincing case.  

And its not like Machado is a one time 6 WAR flash in the pan player. He's been at that 6WAR plateau 4 times now. I've seen Schoop's name mentioned here a couple times, he's exceeded 5 WAR once. Machado has proven that he is great. We are still left with hoping that our players will be good, let alone great.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Right now my prediction is that Machado will get traded in about 3 years' time because the Padres will be slashing payroll and he'll want to play for somebody better but hasn't reach his opt-out yes. And yes, there's precedent for this - Giancarlo Stanton got traded 3 years into his 13 year $325M deal with the Marlins. I do hope San Diego can be good for the first time... I've never seen them make the playoffs!

 

 

I was honestly thinking of Stanton when I was typing my post.

 

Another precedent would be Knoblauch (although the money was clearly much lower in the 90s) and he demanded a trade after just one year!

[Nine of twelve]

 

 

No team is built solely from within. 

But that should be the goal.

[Otwins]

 

He'll likely be quite good but my guess is Machado gets tired of losing pretty quickly and demands a trade or the Padres decide they can lose with or without him so they may as well save money and try and dump him.

I think that is what the opt out is for. I think the Padres have 5 years to contend or Machado will leave.  I like this deal for both sides. That is rare.  Padres will have so many players at the $500K level that they can afford Machado. They also have prospects to trade for pitching when the time is right.

[gil4]

 

They drew the 18th most fans last year, on a bad team.... I'm not sure fans don't care. That's nearly median....

They have the number one farm system, so maybe things are better than they have been, I'm told that's how I should judge this FO.....

For the cost of Mauer and Kepler, they get one player that should produce double the WAR of any Twin, unless Buxton or Sano finally achieve stardom.

All the judging of this seems absurd to me. There is plenty of money, it's a great city, and they have a bright future...... That is now brighter.

I like the Machado signing for them. It's just unfortunate for them they have the Myers and Hosmer albatross contracts, too. They don't have mush flexibility, so if things go bad they will stay bad for a while.  

[David HK]

 

I would have taken Machado here, but after their terrible Hosmer and Myers deals, I really questing that organization's decision making skills. Maybe third time's a charm.

Yeh, maybe. But as DanChat also pointed out, SD lost 96 games last year. Manny by himself is not going to turn that into 96 wins.

 

Plus, they've got 2 big albatrosses (albatrossi? ) in those Hosmer and Myers contracts, so there's 3 guys who are taking up a large majority of the whole roster. There's not a lot of room, or $, left for the other 37 guys on the roster.

 

So, basically, Manny's going from the dark pit of the current O's, to another dark pit in a hugely competitive division- how long before he starts showing his disinterest and lack of hustle?

[nicksaviking]

You didn't answer the question. How are they struggling with this modern baseball thing?

Have you seen their record? Have you seen their terrible contracts they’ve handed out? It’s not just hindsight, prior to this Machado deal every contract they’ve given out was immediately met with a collective groan from everyone and their grandma.

[h2oface]

 

Yeh, maybe. But as DanChat also pointed out, SD lost 96 games last year. Manny by himself is not going to turn that into 96 wins.

 

Plus, they've got 2 big albatrosses (albatrossi? ) in those Hosmer and Myers contracts, so there's 3 guys who are taking up a large majority of the whole roster. There's not a lot of room, or $, left for the other 37 guys on the roster.

 

So, basically, Manny's going from the dark pit of the current O's, to another dark pit in a hugely competitive division- how long before he starts showing his disinterest and lack of hustle?

 

Ah.... but all teams are in the same place, in a way. There is the new season, and all teams have the hope that the talent will shine and the rebounds will happen and the breakouts will breakout and prospects become MLB players that force their way on the roster and the injuries will be minimal and the stars will shine instead of dim. It sure is a different attempt at the same result .... a lot different than stand pat and hope. But they both can prevail. Or fail. Play Ball!

[Blackjack]

 

He'll likely be quite good but my guess is Machado gets tired of losing pretty quickly and demands a trade or the Padres decide they can lose with or without him so they may as well save money and try and dump him.

 

Thats where I'm shaking my head over this deal, the fact that he didn't sign with one of the teams that spend the money every year and has a chance to goto the World Series every year - the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.  How much money do you really need??   Could you live on 25 million a year??   

 

It tells me that the player is more concerned about the money than he is about winning.    Yes the Padres may make a run in the next few years with all their great (but unproven) prospects but if you really wanted to win on a consistent basis, you wouldn't pick the Padres. 

[Blackjack]

I will add that San Diego is a beautiful city with GREAT weather!!!   I spent four years their in Uncle Sam's Navy and coming from MN, I was always telling people to appreciate the weather!!!   70 degrees and clear most of the year!!!   Even during the rainy winter, it would clear up by late afternoon and you could get out for your run!!!  If you heard thunder it was rare!!!

 

I also remember going to Padre games at the old stadium. This was back in the days of the Big Red machine, Perez, Bench, Morgan, Pete Rose, tickets were cheap, we could get tickets right on the third base line, beer, peanuts, and baseball!!!   It was great.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thats where I'm shaking my head over this deal, the fact that he didn't sign with one of the teams that spend the money every year and has a chance to goto the World Series every year - the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.  How much money do you really need??   Could you live on 25 million a year??   

 

It tells me that the player is more concerned about the money than he is about winning.    Yes the Padres may make a run in the next few years with all their great (but unproven) prospects but if you really wanted to win on a consistent basis, you wouldn't pick the Padres. 

 

As far as I know, the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees made no offer to Machado. Judging by the numbers at Cot's Contracts, none of those 3 clubs had any kind of room to sign Machado under the luxury tax threshold. So you're not talking about a difference of $30 mil from the Padres vs. $25 mil from those contenders.

 

The closest contender who was in any kind of pursuit of Machado was probably the Phillies -- but they're only projected as a .500 team at Fangraphs, in a very competitive division. I suspect the Padres will fare worse than that in 2019, but I'm not sure the difference is stark enough, especially beyond 2019, to judge the player's intentions. Especially since we don't know the terms of the Phillies offer.

[Vanimal46]

I will add that San Diego is a beautiful city with GREAT weather!!! I spent four years their in Uncle Sam's Navy and coming from MN, I was always telling people to appreciate the weather!!! 70 degrees and clear most of the year!!! Even during the rainy winter, it would clear up by late afternoon and you could get out for your run!!! If you heard thunder it was rare!!!

 

I also remember going to Padre games at the old stadium. This was back in the days of the Big Red machine, Perez, Bench, Morgan, Pete Rose, tickets were cheap, we could get tickets right on the third base line, beer, peanuts, and baseball!!! It was great.

Concur. I love San Diego and would live there without question if there was an employer making me a good offer.

[Dantes929]

 

Thats where I'm shaking my head over this deal, the fact that he didn't sign with one of the teams that spend the money every year and has a chance to goto the World Series every year - the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.  How much money do you really need??   Could you live on 25 million a year??   

 

It tells me that the player is more concerned about the money than he is about winning.    Yes the Padres may make a run in the next few years with all their great (but unproven) prospects but if you really wanted to win on a consistent basis, you wouldn't pick the Padres. 

I think the underlined sentence is a bit unfair.    It may be true but I wouldn't just assume its true.   I am guessing he could have made as much or more in the other markets especially with endorsements.   While I have never liked being on teams that had very little chance of winning I also didn't like being on the teams that were supposed to win.    I always preferred being the slight underdogs in any contest.  It just makes winning more satisfying.    If I was a superstar there is no way I would sign with the usual top 4 regardless of the money.    I would want to be George Brett of the Royals or Kirby Puckett of the Twins rather than Alex Rodriquez of the Yankees.    If I were him I would consider family, community, environment, people, and prospects.    Knowing the money would be the silly outrageous kind no matter where I signed it wouldn't even be much of a factor.   I don't know the guy but will give him the benefit of the doubt.   

[Don Walcott]

It's German for a certain part of the female whale anatomy.

[Don Walcott]

 

I think the underlined sentence is a bit unfair.    It may be true but I wouldn't just assume its true.   I am guessing he could have made as much or more in the other markets especially with endorsements.   While I have never liked being on teams that had very little chance of winning I also didn't like being on the teams that were supposed to win.    I always preferred being the slight underdogs in any contest.  It just makes winning more satisfying.    If I was a superstar there is no way I would sign with the usual top 4 regardless of the money.    I would want to be George Brett of the Royals or Kirby Puckett of the Twins rather than Alex Rodriquez of the Yankees.    If I were him I would consider family, community, environment, people, and prospects.    Knowing the money would be the silly outrageous kind no matter where I signed it wouldn't even be much of a factor.   I don't know the guy but will give him the benefit of the doubt.   

Agreed. How about Tony Gwynn of the Padres? He waited 14 years between WS.

[howieramone2]

 

Not a great trade... But they made up for it later!

There's no making up in baseball.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They also SIGNED James Shields to an absolutely awful contract, as did they Hosmer and Myers.

FWIW, the Shields contract wasn't "absolutely awful" at the time. It was only 4 years, $75 mil, for a durable and performing pitcher by both bWAR and fWAR up to that point. Yes, there was risk -- Shields was entering his age 33 season -- but it wasn't a bad amount of risk. Ervin was only a year younger when we signed him, with a worse track record of performance.

 

Agreed that Myers and Hosmer were not good investments, though. Not much excuse for those, especially Hosmer (Myers was at least younger, with some positional flexibility).

[KirbyDome89]

 

My favorite is when they gave us 7.25M for the 74th pick in the 2019 draft. 

I wish the Twins would buy high second round picks from other organizations....

 

SD payed to acquire controllable talent; MN slashed payroll by 30M and ownership pocketed that extra 7.25M.....

 

 

[Blackjack]

 

I think the underlined sentence is a bit unfair.    It may be true but I wouldn't just assume its true.   I am guessing he could have made as much or more in the other markets especially with endorsements.   While I have never liked being on teams that had very little chance of winning I also didn't like being on the teams that were supposed to win.    I always preferred being the slight underdogs in any contest.  It just makes winning more satisfying.    If I was a superstar there is no way I would sign with the usual top 4 regardless of the money.    I would want to be George Brett of the Royals or Kirby Puckett of the Twins rather than Alex Rodriquez of the Yankees.    If I were him I would consider family, community, environment, people, and prospects.    Knowing the money would be the silly outrageous kind no matter where I signed it wouldn't even be much of a factor.   I don't know the guy but will give him the benefit of the doubt.   

 

I understand your point about how much fun it is to be the underdog and win but since I watched the Padres back in 1977 they have been to the World Series once (according to another poster).

 

Thats some serious underdoging!!! And some really serious management ineptitude!!!

 

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here.

 

 

 

[Blackjack]

 

As far as I know, the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees made no offer to Machado. Judging by the numbers at Cot's Contracts, none of those 3 clubs had any kind of room to sign Machado under the luxury tax threshold. So you're not talking about a difference of $30 mil from the Padres vs. $25 mil from those contenders.

 

The closest contender who was in any kind of pursuit of Machado was probably the Phillies -- but they're only projected as a .500 team at Fangraphs, in a very competitive division. I suspect the Padres will fare worse than that in 2019, but I'm not sure the difference is stark enough, especially beyond 2019, to judge the player's intentions. Especially since we don't know the terms of the Phillies offer.

 

 

Its really hard to know exactly what contracts were offered but I'll bet if Machado had went to anyone of the three teams that you mentioned and offered to sign for a lot less, if he'd have said 'I want to play for a winner', they'd have made room for him.   We'll never know.  

 

I agree with one of the other posters that said Machado will fade into the woodwork's, except for some all-star games and bad behavior news, because I don't think San Diego management will get it done.      Only time will tell.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think the underlined sentence is a bit unfair.    It may be true but I wouldn't just assume its true.   I am guessing he could have made as much or more in the other markets especially with endorsements.   While I have never liked being on teams that had very little chance of winning I also didn't like being on the teams that were supposed to win.    I always preferred being the slight underdogs in any contest.  It just makes winning more satisfying.    If I was a superstar there is no way I would sign with the usual top 4 regardless of the money.    I would want to be George Brett of the Royals or Kirby Puckett of the Twins rather than Alex Rodriquez of the Yankees.    If I were him I would consider family, community, environment, people, and prospects.    Knowing the money would be the silly outrageous kind no matter where I signed it wouldn't even be much of a factor.   I don't know the guy but will give him the benefit of the doubt.   

 

To add to this, players are under significant pressure from each other to maximize value to help the next guy up.  Many of these guys view these contracts as wins for all players, so taking less money is viewed as a win for ownership.  So I too think the criticism about choosing the Padres as a non-winner is way overstated.  And, frankly, unfair.

[Tomj14]

 

To add to this, players are under significant pressure from each other to maximize value to help the next guy up.  Many of these guys view these contracts as wins for all players, so taking less money is viewed as a win for ownership.  So I too think the criticism about choosing the Padres as a non-winner is way overstated.  And, frankly, unfair.

and the union. Remember AROD tried to take less money and the union said no. I agree if he would have agreed to say 10/175 to play for NY or LAD, people/fans/players  would have went crazy.