Manny Machado to the Padres

[Vanimal46]

I would have liked Machado, so that's a check mark in the Good column for SD as far as I'm concerned.

 

But I agree with the previous poster both SD and the White Sox seem to make way more terrible decisions than good and don't appear to be great at this modern baseball stuff. I wouldn't trust either of those front offices to run my team, good intentions only get you so far.

Is there any reality in this assessment? Their FO appears to be making great choices such as trading James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr... All of their great prospects didn't just fall into their lap. Same with the White Sox... Help me understand why theyre struggling more with modern baseball compared to the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

We shall see if it was good for San Diego. That's some big money for them to be gambling. It sure wasn't good for the Angels to grab Pujols.

Pujols was older, and was a DH. It's like specifics don't matter at all....

[RatherBeGolfing]

The meltdown among the Southsiders is fun

[howieramone2]

 

Twins' fans should never forgive this FO for not getting involved in the Machado sweepstakes and letting freaking San Diego get him. Good lord. We could have signed him and still had a lower payroll than last year. 

I'm just happy the Pohlads appear they will allow us to retain our own players. No way we can compete with the large market teams or the occasional misguided wannabes. 

[Dman]

I never understood the Padres fascination with Hosmer.  I guess they had to do something to keep Myers but in hind sight that deal looks bad as well.  Its just at the time they signed him they didn't have much for established guys to build around.  Never was a huge fan of either of those two players and I think in the end they might have to give away a prospect or two to get rid of those guys down the line but we'll see.

 

That being said I think Macado really helps them.  They have third base covered for at least the next five years with Tatis, Meija and Urias close to ready as well as some pitching prospects they have young talent that is not that far away. They also have the ability to trade for good pitching from the depth of their farm.  Things could come together faster than some are giving them credit for.  Manny only helps them get there faster.  Unless he gets injured in some grotesque way he shouldn't be dead weight at the end of his deal either.  

 

Personally I think this is a nice jump start for them. They need to get rid of Meyers or Hosmer but other than that they should be in pretty good shape in 2020 and beyond.

[howieramone2]

 

Is there any reality in this assessment? Their FO appears to be making great choices such as trading James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr... All of their great prospects didn't just fall into their lap. Same with the White Sox... Help me understand why theyre struggling more with modern baseball compared to the Twins.

My favorite is when they gave us 7.25M for the 74th pick in the 2019 draft. The White Sox were handed one of the best prospects in baseball when King Theo traded for a back of rotation starter. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

?

A cesspool of an org with the #1 farm system in baseball, and a desire to make headlines. I'll take that all day long in Minnesota.

The Padres have been horribly ran for 50 years. Yeah they have a nice system. But until they prove otherwise they will find a way to blow it. Hosmer and Myers are proof that it hasn't changed yet.

 

I'll actually take how the Twins have been ran, even recently, over the Pads anyday. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

But yes, I think any team that picked up Machado is better. I don't see regret for the majority of this deal unless it is injury. He's only 26 and is an annual 6WAR player.

[strumdatjaguar]

Would you all really have wanted to see Manny play here on the last three seasons of his contract when will be 34, 35, and 36.    Twins signed hometown hero Mauer after he was MVP, and people here werfe complaining over the last 3 years.   Let's try to grow talent here and refain it.  Free agency is more often than not a poor way to go.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Would you all really have wanted to see Manny play here on the last three seasons of his contract when will be 34, 35, and 36.    Twins signed hometown hero Mauer after he was MVP, and people here werfe complaining over the last 3 years.   Let's try to grow talent here and refain it.  Free agency is more often than not a poor way to go.

 

Can you find a consistently great team with no free agents? More than one of those?

 

Why do people obsess only on the end of the deal, never talking about the first part where some of them are awesome, and acknowledging that's part of the deal?

 

No team is built solely from within. 

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

Twins' fans should never forgive this FO for not getting involved in the Machado sweepstakes and letting freaking San Diego get him. Good lord. We could have signed him and still had a lower payroll than last year. 

 

Machado would be great for us this year.  But it creates big issues with payroll starting next year.  The issue with Machado (as I see it) is that signing Machado means you'd need to trade for a cheap #2 or #3 SP for next year.  Signing Machado creates extra IF depth from which to deal from, but no one in the IF seems to be a great chip to return a #2 or #3.    

 

To me, Kepler and Rosario are both way more valuable than any IF asset.  They could be used to lead a deal along with prospects in the 5-15 range to get a return.  That makes Harper preferable to Machado.  

 

Of course, we also could just sign Keuchel, which is probably the smartest of the options at this point.      

[bird]

 

They drew the 18th most fans last year, on a bad team.... I'm not sure fans don't care. That's nearly median....

They have the number one farm system, so maybe things are better than they have been, I'm told that's how I should judge this FO.....

For the cost of Mauer and Kepler, they get one player that should produce double the WAR of any Twin, unless Buxton or Sano finally achieve stardom.

All the judging of this seems absurd to me. There is plenty of money, it's a great city, and they have a bright future...... That is now brighter.

 

 

I won't argue that it's a bad idea for the Padres, I don't know. 

 

But your Kepler/Mauer comparison springs a leak.

 

How bout this: for a fraction of the cost of Machado, Rosario and Buxton might conceivably produce the same WAR in 2019 as Machado without all the same catastrophic performance and injury risk.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Machado would be great for us this year.  But it creates big issues with payroll starting next year.  The issue with Machado (as I see it) is that signing Machado means you'd need to trade for a cheap #2 or #3 SP for next year.  Signing Machado creates extra IF depth from which to deal from, but no one in the IF seems to be a great chip to return a #2 or #3.    

 

To me, Kepler and Rosario are both way more valuable than any IF asset.  They could be used to lead a deal along with prospects in the 5-15 range to get a return.  That makes Harper preferable to Machado.  

 

Of course, we also could just sign Keuchel, which is probably the smartest of the options at this point.      

 

They need a number 2 or 3 next year no matter what. I'm guessing you can find one for the price of Odo, Pineda plus what's his name that they just signed, and not see any increase in budget. Berrios, new guy, one of the young guys, Gibson, random young guy. No increase in salaries from pitching....heck, if you let Gibson go too, you can probably sign 2 decent pitchers for what they are paying those 4.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

I won't argue that it's a bad idea for the Padres, I don't know. 

 

But your Kepler/Mauer comparison springs a leak.

 

How bout this: for a fraction of the cost of Machado, Rosario and Buxton might conceivably produce the same WAR in 2019 as Machado without all the same catastrophic performance and injury risk.

 

So, two players to produce what one player does? How is that better? Or are you arguing that somehow Rosario is going to put up 5-7 WAR? Buxton? Maybe...but wouldn't you rather have him and Machado, and still have a median salary structure?

 

And, what good is financial flexibility if you (the team) never spends it, so they can have it?

[Mike Sixel]

I've already lost interest in this discussion. For some fans, there somehow isn't money in the budget for even one great player, in an industry with no risk to ownership, and massive increases in revenue. 

 

If your rebuttal is "you can't build in FA" ,I'm not saying that. I'm saying go get one great player, who happens to be 26, not 30.......it almost never happens that players this young, this great, become FAs....

[Danchat]

?

 

A cesspool of an org with the #1 farm system in baseball, and a desire to make headlines. I'll take that all day long in Minnesota.

A desire to make headlines? You mean like Preller’s disastrous 2014 offseason?

 

The Twins made headlines with last year’s signings and would have made even more with Darvish. I’m frustrated with the lack of moves too, but making moves just to be splashy isn’t going to make this team better.

[nicksaviking]

 

Is there any reality in this assessment? Their FO appears to be making great choices such as trading James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr... All of their great prospects didn't just fall into their lap. Same with the White Sox... Help me understand why theyre struggling more with modern baseball compared to the Twins.

 

They also SIGNED James Shields to an absolutely awful contract, as did they Hosmer and Myers. The fact that they fleeced the White Sox is more of an indictment on the White Sox. But congrats to them, better they have Tatis than the Sox.

 

And what does that have to do with the Twins? No one was comparing the two. Liking or disliking what the Twins do or don't do is immaterial to this transaction.

[Blake]

According to MLB.com, Machado may have a 10 year deal, but the contract has an opt out clause at 5 years. It's my understanding the opt out clause is both team and player.

 

Machado's contract appears to be closer to a 5 year deal with the potential to be a 10 year contract.

[Vanimal46]

They also SIGNED James Shields to an absolutely awful contract, as did they Hosmer and Myers. The fact that they fleeced the White Sox is more of an indictment on the White Sox. But congrats to them, better they have Tatis than the Sox.

 

And what does that have to do with the Twins? No one was comparing the two. Liking or disliking what the Twins do or don't do is immaterial to this transaction.

You didn't answer the question. How are they struggling with this modern baseball thing?

[Vanimal46]

A desire to make headlines? You mean like Preller’s disastrous 2014 offseason?

 

The Twins made headlines with last year’s signings and would have made even more with Darvish. I’m frustrated with the lack of moves too, but making moves just to be splashy isn’t going to make this team better.

Pretty sure a 6 WAR player is going to make the Padres better.

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

They need a number 2 or 3 next year no matter what. I'm guessing you can find one for the price of Odo, Pineda plus what's his name that they just signed, and not see any increase in budget. Berrios, new guy, one of the young guys, Gibson, random young guy. No increase in salaries from pitching....heck, if you let Gibson go too, you can probably sign 2 decent pitchers for what they are paying those 4.....

 

There's clearly a way to sign Machado and field a team, but the margin of error could be slim.  

 

It's the concern caused by the salary increases from the core.  Assuming the Twins decline the Cruz option, I've got the Twins at at least $53-58MM for next year before Machado's contract  (which includes Cruz, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Sano, Parker, Buxton, Rogers, May, Berrios, and Adrianza). 

 

That requires the Twins to fill a hole at SS/2B (assuming Lewis and/or Gordon aren't up next year, which you'd have to plan on) and DH.  Schoop's contract is the model for a replacement at 2B.  So that's 1 year $7.5MM.  Now we're at $60.5-65.5MM.

 

We've got 4 SP slots to fill after Berrios.  We plug in two new guys making the minimum, that's about $1.15M.  We've got 5 RP slots to fill.  We probably can fill 3 with guys making the minimum. That's 1.725M.  We're rolling with Garver/Astudillo behind the dish.  $1.15M.  Cave is the back-up OF.  575K.  We gamble on Larnach for DH.  575K.  That's another $5.15M.  Now we're at about $66-71MM. 

 

We still need 2 SP and 2 RP.  Without trading, and assuming we spent $30MM/year on Machado, that's a pretty narrow financial window to build a contending rotation and bullpen. 

 

The way to justify it would be to get on the horn right now and start dealing minor league pieces for teams that are out of it with young controllable pitching and/or teams with a deep bench of AA or AAA pitching prospects that are looking to go for it.  For example, hooking up with the Braves on a Kepler plus prospect package would make sense.  The price for pre-arb pitchers or a close-to-the-bigs AA or AAA piece with upside is going to be painful.        

 

 

 

[Don Walcott]

When asked why now might be the time to make a play for one of the top free agents, Fowler said: "There's no perfect timing. ... But there's not talent out there that becomes available every year that's as good as what we think is there now. . . ."

 

So they just went out and got the best player available on the FA market. Makes sense to me.

[big dog]

 

Is there any reality in this assessment? Their FO appears to be making great choices such as trading James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr... All of their great prospects didn't just fall into their lap. Same with the White Sox... Help me understand why theyre struggling more with modern baseball compared to the Twins.

That was a trade between the Padres and the White Sox.  If the Padres made a great trade, what did the White Sox make?  

[Vanimal46]

That was a trade between the Padres and the White Sox. If the Padres made a great trade, what did the White Sox make?

Not a great trade... But they made up for it later!

[notoriousgod71]

I would be pretty ecstatic that a top FA signed with a small market team but I will be within three years either the player, team, or both will be trying to get out of that contract and SD will trade him to one of the 3-4 big boys for nothing.

[TheLeviathan]

"There is no perfect timing" Right. I don't know why the Padres seem to be the only ones thinking that.

 

It's obvious and yet Falvine and others feed us nonsense to the contrary.

[Mike Sixel]

Let's play pretend, and assume teh Pads are now desperate to unload salary....

 

How much of one of their bad deals would you eat, if you could have one or two of their prospects? They have more 50+FV prospects than any other team.

 

They have two LHP around 90th best, then add in one more top 130 guy.....

 

How much of Wil Meyer's deal would you take on?

 

2019: $3M, 2020: $20M, 2021: $20M, 2022: $20M

 

Or, Hosmer's front loaded deal:

2019: $20M, 2020: $20M, 2021: $20M, 2022: $20M, 2023: $13M, 2024: $13M, 2025: $13M

[Otto von Ballpark]

According to MLB.com, Machado may have a 10 year deal, but the contract has an opt out clause at 5 years. It's my understanding the opt out clause is both team and player.

 

Machado's contract appears to be closer to a 5 year deal with the potential to be a 10 year contract.

I am pretty sure it is just a player opt-out. So it's a 10 year deal unless Machado thinks he can do better than 5/150 in 5 years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would be pretty ecstatic that a top FA signed with a small market team but I will be within three years either the player, team, or both will be trying to get out of that contract and SD will trade him to one of the 3-4 big boys for nothing.

It's still not necessarily a bad deal. The next 3 years should be Machado's best. Eating $30 mil to trade him after 3 years would be the same outcome as signing him to a 3 year, $120 mil deal.

[bird]

 

So, two players to produce what one player does? How is that better? Or are you arguing that somehow Rosario is going to put up 5-7 WAR? Buxton? Maybe...but wouldn't you rather have him and Machado, and still have a median salary structure?

 

And, what good is financial flexibility if you (the team) never spends it, so they can have it?

 

 

It's about concentrated risk without any extra WAR benefit as opposed to distributed risk for the same benefit if you play your cards right. All your eggs for 5-7 WAR in one $30M basket with Ground Hogs Day for 5 years or so if he crashes and burns. It's far from the no-brainer some suggest.

 

It's about spreading out the benefit and reducing the risk. Fangraphs suggests the Twins, according to Steamer, are expected to get 2WAR or better from what? Seven positions? The average team fills five positions with Mauer production or worse.

 

And remember, the Padres are spending 32M a season for about seven more Ground Hogs Days and last year got a total of 4 WAR out of that duo. Schoop alone has done that!

 

Maybe Sano DOES only get you the 2.6 they project, but think about it: which positions on the Twins do NOT give us a shot at 3 WAR or more? Maybe Polanco and Kepler match Machado's WAR all by themselves, who knows? For half the cost and half the years. Just don't give $18M to Hosmers and $14M to Myers for eight friggin' years and six friggin' years respectively. If they underperform permanenty, say bye bye to $220M. 

 

Start by eliminating running a dud out there for a full season. Don't let a 0 WAR hole exist. Then refrain from stupid risks. Get your WAR, but get it at smart prices.

 

Get your 6 WAR from two players for half the Manny price. Go get another 5 or 6 from two more, and get 2 each from another four.

 

Cruz, Rosario, Sano, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, Schoop.  Uncertainty, sure, but so is avoiding a concussion, and maybe Machado isn't quite as certain a bet as we think.

 

Edit: the devil might be in the contract details, and it may be a great deal for the Padres because of their ability to eventually and ADEQUATELY fill in the holes around him with super cheap production from their incredible wealth of new talent. Just a harder call for the Twins.