Is a .500 season possible?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure. If their strong performances results in an extra win or 2, good for them. Isn't this a different conversation though?

Not really. On the current 25-man roster, approximately 20 of those guys have a potential future with the 2019 Twins. Only ~3 players on the roster are 30 years old or older (would have to confirm exact number but I'm pretty sure it's under 5).

 

The performance of young players will likely dictate the number of wins through the remainder of the season.

[yarnivek1972]

There are 5 over 30 on the 25 man: Drake, Gibson, Wilson, Forsythe and Mauer. Reed turns 30 in December.

 

Of course, that doesn’t count Ervin, who was just put on the DL, Matt Belisle - who is still likely to come back from the DL, Logan Morrison or Jason Castro, who obviously won’t be back this year but both are under contract or control for 2019.

 

So, regarding Levine’s statement of “open auditions”, all I can say is “anytime now”.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sure, but I'll still be more interested drafting at 10 overall than 15. I'm not going to feel any better about how this season went if they finish with 81+ wins.

 

I'd be more interested in how they got the wins. If the young kids are the ones doing the heavy lifting, I'd be pretty encouraged actually.

[Vanimal46]

I'd be more interested in how they got the wins. If the young kids are the ones doing the heavy lifting, I'd be pretty encouraged actually.

I wouldn't be all that encouraged... Most non-contenders are giving their young kids and org warriors a cup of coffee too.

 

I don't believe finishing on a strong note has any bearing towards a team's success the following season. As always, I could be way off on this.

[Mike Sixel]

It can happen, sure. I doubt there is much correlation between "winning Sept" after being really bad, and success the next year though. So I'm not worried about that.

 

I am interested in seeing young players get opportunities, like, I don't know, maybe Wade and not Grossman, for example. At least on the pitching side we are going to see some young players, so that's good.

 

Finishing 10th vs 20th has a huge impact on the draft, btw. The WAR delta is more than 1 WAR per year between those positions, and that doesn't count the money difference.  The odds of a complete bust go up by 30% between those two spots. You are twice as likely to get a superior player.....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

 

[minnesquatcha]

Regardless of how they finish, they shouldn't hurt or help their draft stock too much. They're one of the few teams in baseball who is having a remarkably average season. In the NL, There are about 7-8 teams with better records than the twins that they'd be hard pressed to catch and the teams better than the twins in the AL are way better.

[amjgt]

I'm pretty much with Brock on this one. It seems like with the other major sports there is enough of an advantage to tanking that, while painful, it is worth it.

 

In order for a Twins tank to be effective, at this point, and really make an appreciable difference to the draft next June, we'd have to lose like 90% of our games. Ultimately all I really care about are the performances of players who will be a part of 2019 and beyond, but in order for us to tank bad enough, the players I want to see do well would almost all have to play terribly. I don't want that.

 

I mean, I guess if all of our starters would throw 6 scoreless, the offense would give them 7 runs of support, a couple relievers would throw a couple scoreless frames, then Belisle would come in for the 9th and give up 8 run every night, I'd be ok with that. But while I know Matt could give up 8 easily, I'm not sure we could keep him fresh enough to do that every night. 

[Mike Sixel]

I just posted two studies showing a massive difference between picks 6-10 and 15-20.....so, I am not with you and Brock. And again, that doesn't count the extra money they can play with.

 

I just want Garver, Austin, and Sano to play a lot. And for Gonsalves to be better than I expect. And maybe for Wade to come up. 

[amjgt]

I just looked at the MLB standings and sorted by the whole league. We are 11th worst. 

 

My main takeaway though.... Seattle is 17 games over .500 with a minus-42 run differential and the Mets are 15 games under .500 with a minus-43 run differential.

 

Baseball is silly sometimes. 

[tvagle]

 

It's late August and they're only 5 down at this writing. Of course they could do it.

 

I see very little chance of them catching Boston, though.

Boston Magic Number to finish with more win than the Twins is 11

 

But if it makes you feel any better: White Sox, Royals and Orioles already done with Tigers on the 1 win/loss bublble 

[amjgt]

 

Boston Magic Number to finish with more win than the Twins is 11

 

But if it makes you feel any better: White Sox, Royals and Orioles already done with Tigers on the 1 win/loss bublble 

 

Baltimore can officially be eliminated from the playoffs today

[tvagle]

 

Baltimore can officially be eliminated from the playoffs today

Magic Number Ball Concurs

[Rosterman]

Yes. And Molly will be applauded for taking a roster of rookies and has beens to a victorious season and the Twins should spend heavily in the off-season since they are on the cusp of producing a winning dynasty on the field.

 

But looks like Cleveland is also beating up on the same teams (including The Twins).

 

[jkcarew]

Count me among those that don't count losses or wins at this point.  I couldn't care less where the win total ends up, it's all about seeing how guys develop.

 

The 1983 Twins ended the year with Hrbek, Gaetti, Gagne, Laudner, Viola, Brunansky....and the 92 losses  they fumbled their way to didn't scar them going forward.

[amjgt]

 

Count me among those that don't count losses or wins at this point.  I couldn't care less where the win total ends up, it's all about seeing how guys develop.

 

The 1983 Twins ended the year with Hrbek, Gaetti, Gagne, Laudner, Viola, Brunansky....and the 92 losses  they fumbled their way to didn't scar them going forward.

 

25-25 their last 50 games

[amjgt]

What's striking... look at the length of the games

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/1983-schedule-scores.shtml

 

I'm not a "THE GAMES ARE TAKING TOO LONG" guy, but holy cow, the non extra inning games the last few months look like they average less than 2:30.

[VATwinsFan]

100 Turkish lira says they get to 82 - 80.

[ashbury]

Boston Magic Number to finish with more win than the Twins is 11

 

But if it makes you feel any better: White Sox, Royals and Orioles already done with Tigers on the 1 win/loss bublble

It Ain't Over Until The... oh wait, it looks over.

 

Magic Number Ball Concurs

Do not taunt Magic Number Ball.

 

[jkcarew]

25-25 their last 50 games

Yep. And Gaetti, Hrbek, Brunansky, and Viola were around for the 45 - 67 that came before that. As noted baseball mind, Steven Tyler, once said...”You got to lose to know how to win.”

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Sure. If their strong performances results in an extra win or 2, good for them. Isn't this a different conversation though? I thought we were just talking about the team trying to win as many games as they can so they can head into 2019 feeling good.

 

To clarify this point: I think it's more important to play the younger players, wins be damned. If they have strong performances that results in a couple more wins, woo-hoo!

 

If you truly want them to compete and be an over .500 team, they'll continue to do what they were doing in July... Playing the veterans and keeping young players on a short leash.

This is a better team playing the youth than it was while most of the vets were around. I see this period of non-factor August a gift to test Gonsalves and Stewart et al, during competitive baseball and still have September to get a look at the other guys who’ll compete for roles next year. Plus it’s a better team to watch!

[mngopherguy]

I don't think the Twins will win more than 75.  Actually I said that in April too.  Anyway, if Stewart, Gonsalves and possibly others get their turns to try and learn at this level, I fully expect more losses than wins.

[Riverbrian]

Not only could the Twins be a .500 team... I think they might. I wouldn't bet against them. 

 

They are a better baseball team right now. 

 

2nd Half Austin is better than 1st half Morrison. 

2nd Half Garver is better than 1st half Wilson

2nd Half Mauer is even with 1st half Mauer

2nd Half Forsythe is playing better than 1st half Dozier

2nd Half Sano is much much better than 1st half Sano

2nd Half Polanco is just a little worse than 1st Escobar. 

2nd Half Rosario is even with 1st half Rosario

2nd Half Cave is much much better than 1st half Buxton

2nd Half Kepler is looking a little better than 1st half Kepler. 

 

That's a flat out improvement in 8 of 9 positions and a slight downtick in 1 position. 

 

The Pitching staff is keeping us in games and giving us a chance to win every night. 

 

We are simply better right now. We could be a .500 team. I wouldn't bet against it. 

[TheLeviathan]

I really don't care what their record is.....as long as they keep auditioning the future.  If that gets them to .500 - great!  Just don't chase wins fielding guys cautiously when you need to aggressively audition.  

[Kelly Vance]

You win the game you're in. Period. 

I don't give a damn about draft order. That's something that should not even be considered. Besides, who says we will draft the right guy with a pick a few spots higher? Think Wimmers.

 

Integrity is not something that only applies to situations where you have nothing to lose. You walk the true path and give it your best each and every game. You don't tank games. Ever. 

 

I have always been an advocate for letting the kids play. But you roll a call up or two into the lineup, you don't ever start a lineup that cannot compete. If I am JP and I think this is happening, I'd fire everyone involved. 

[Twins33]

Yes, I think they could be .500 at the end of the season which is pretty good considering all the things that didn't go well this season. They're playing their best baseball this season in this last month and a half or so (wins and losses wise).

 

That being said, the best I see them doing is 80 wins.

 

I'd prefer them to focus on giving all the future core as much playing time as possible, whether those players suck or not. I'd also prefer to get the higher draft pick while doing that. That's not to say I want the players to try and suck. I don't want the players to purposely tank and I hope that's never a players mentality.

 

They can play well and still lose. It's baseball. A pitcher could throw a no hitter and the team can still lose. I want the core to do well and still lose, being .500 does nothing for me personally. They won't make the playoffs either way so the feeling is the same for me. If they win, it doesn't bother me and I'm still happy about it. So I can't really lose either way..

[old nurse]

 

It can happen, sure. I doubt there is much correlation between "winning Sept" after being really bad, and success the next year though. So I'm not worried about that.

 

I am interested in seeing young players get opportunities, like, I don't know, maybe Wade and not Grossman, for example. At least on the pitching side we are going to see some young players, so that's good.

 

Finishing 10th vs 20th has a huge impact on the draft, btw. The WAR delta is more than 1 WAR per year between those positions, and that doesn't count the money difference.  The odds of a complete bust go up by 30% between those two spots. You are twice as likely to get a superior player.....

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/community/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

To get to the 16th pick they would have to pass  San Fransisco, Washington, Pittsburgh, Angels and Tampa Bay.  Three of those teams are still within playoff contention.  Nice articles, but probably irrelevant.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To get to the 16th pick they would have to pass  San Fransisco, Washington, Pittsburgh, Angels and Tampa Bay.  Three of those teams are still within playoff contention.  Nice articles, but probably irrelevant.

 

hey, I'm just responding to "it doesn't matter if they pick 10th or 20th".......which is what others said, several times. I'm not saying anything about where they will finish.

[old nurse]

The Twins are 2 games over .500 with division opponents  Considering KC, Sox, and Detroit the answer to why the team is 6 games below .500 is clearer. They have not beat up the weaker teams in the division.  Nothing has really changed to say the outcomes will be much different.  Given their record this year against the better teams, making up the win totals against Oakland, New York, and Houston would be a very tall order.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

hey, I'm just responding to "it doesn't matter if they pick 10th or 20th".......which is what others said, several times. I'm not saying anything about where they will finish.

I said that... but it's not really what I said. I said anything in the 10-20 range is pretty much the same to me.

 

The likely difference we're talking about here - and I mentioned it a few times in earlier posts - is maybe +/- 3 draft slots.

 

In other words, not much.

[old nurse]

 

hey, I'm just responding to "it doesn't matter if they pick 10th or 20th".......which is what others said, several times. I'm not saying anything about where they will finish.

By your first article the difference between 11-15 and 16-20 is .5 WAR which by fangraphs definition of WAR is insignificant as WAR by their definition is not a precise measurement