Article: Ehire Of Hope: Can Adrianza Seize A Prime Opportunity?

[bean5302]

 

He has batted over .300 in three different stints at Triple-A, dating back to when he was 23. All just coincidence and luck, eh? 

 

I don't think you'll find a single person on the ground or in the scouting community who agrees with this assessment. Escobar is sure-handed and capable but lacks the range and arm to be any kind of asset at short. 

This is exactly what I'm talking about...

 

a19 - 8 PA, .600 BABIP

a24 - 177 PA, .391 BABIP

a25 - 22 PA, .357 BABIP

a25 - 195 PA, .389 BABIP (here's where he stops being a legit prospect and nearly loses rookie status)

a26 - 37 PA, .267 BABIP

a27 - 44 PA, .308 BABIP

Career MLB 517 PA, .276 BABIP, driven down by his very high pop-up rate. His AAA BABIP is inflated. His last two seasons at AAA, in admitted very small sample sizes, have been similar to his MLB BABIP and Adrianza has a batting average more similar to his MLB career line as a result. It seems unreasonable to look at his AAA stats without a large dose of skepticism, especially given his inability to impress at other MiLB levels and his terrible hitting at the MLB level.

 

In regard to the criticism of Escobar's abilities at SS, he's got a career 0.3 UZR/150 line in 2,363 innings, largely hurt only by a rough 2016. Escobar was billed as a slick fielding SS with the potential his bat could play with a little time. His bat now plays, and while he doesn't have the full speed and range he did a couple years ago, but he's got what it takes to put together an above average fielding (not great or elite) season at SS if the Twins decide to let him.

 

Some links with scouting information and expectations for Escobar.

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/eduardo-escobar/

https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2015/09/eduardo-escobar-can-be-twins-shortstop-solution-if-they-let-him

https://minnesota.sbnation.com/minnesota-twins/2012/7/28/3199423/francisco-liriano-minnesota-twins-trade-chicago-white-sox-eduardo-escobar

 

In summary, I don't believe you've done much research on the subject and maybe formed some opinions based on what you've heard people say off the cuff. I could be mistaken, but I don't find anything to suggest your opinion on either subject is particularly well anchored.

[Riverbrian]

There was a reason that the Twins didn't feel the need to upgrade Adrianaza during the off season. I assume the reason they didn't upgrade was because there was something they liked about him. 

 

We should now get a chance to see if they were right and see what they liked. 

 

There are no guarantees with any of our players... it could be knucklehead stuff like a steroid suspension or a Bumgarner Motorcycle Accident... or just a simple injury. 

 

A team needs to be prepared for any eventuality. We just lost Polanco for 80 games... let's see how prepared our front office was. 

 

Adrianaza is the next man up. 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

There was a reason that the Twins didn't feel the need to upgrade Adrianaza during the off season. I assume the reason they didn't upgrade was because there was something they liked about him.

 

We should now get a chance to see if they were right and see what they liked.

 

There are no guarantees with any of our players... it could be knucklehead stuff like a steroid suspension or a Bumgarner Motorcycle Accident... or just a simple injury.

 

A team needs to be prepared for any eventuality. We just lost Polanco for 80 games... let's see how prepared our front office was.

 

Adrianaza is the next man up.

Well yeah. They probably liked him in a utility role getting 200-ish PAs. It's a different story playing him every day.

[Nick Nelson]

 

In summary, I don't believe you've done much research on the subject and maybe formed some opinions based on what you've heard people say off the cuff. I could be mistaken, but I don't find anything to suggest your opinion on either subject is particularly well anchored.

What Escobar was billed as 5-6 years ago isn't especially relevant today. He's not the same player at 29 as he was at 23 when the Twins got him. I'm mystified that you think those articles you linked are pertinent in 2018.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Esco, and argued in the past that he should get more of a shot at SS. But things change. He played poorly at the position in his most recent extensive time, and as a result the Twins became less comfortable using him there. That's why he made only a dozen starts at SS last year despite Polanco's massive struggles for much of the first half, and why I suspect Adrianza will get a lot of chances in Jorge's absence. 

 

We're all aware that Adrianza does not have a strong offensive track record, and that he needs to start driving the ball with more authority. But his K-rate would rank among the lowest in the majors and he's got some palpable momentum at the plate for probably the first time in his career. It's reasonable to dream a little. 

[Twins33]

I'm fine with either guy. I'm hoping the bat we saw last year out of Adrianza is something he can continue. He made swing/mechanic changes. He put up a line close to major league avg for a SS last year, granted in a small sample size of less than 200 PA.

 

If he does the same and plays good defense, that's really all you can ask for. We'll always want more, but that type of line is good enough and it's not like the offense is counting on him as much as they are Dozier or Sano.

[Rosterman]

Well, this IS the opportunity for Escobar. Unless Sano goes out on suspension, and Escobar plays there, he SHOULD get the majority of time at shortstop. If nothing else...increase his value. If the Twins do believe in Polanco and he comes back and shines for half-a-season, then Escobar, who is a free agent, I believe, or a highly-priced arbitration chip, could be moved -- be the Twins playing well or not.

 

Folks like Gordon, and to a lesser extent Javier and Lewis, should also see this as an opportunity to advance quickly thru the system.

 

Case in point, like Ehire for what he is, a solid replacement/backup-type guy, offering some veteran skills. But, except for fielding, you could probably get the same production by advancing a prospect to learn at the big league level.

 

But, what is it with the Twins. All these shortstops, but none of them best for the position. Escobar is deadwood, people say. Gordon would be better placed at second. Maybe Lewis will be an outfielder. Even Polanco is said to be better suited to second base. And the Twins could still resign Dozier, although I don't see Brian staying at second much longer (but has the potential to be a DH who COULD play a variety of positions in the field as he ages.)

 

We will see the faith put in Escobar, as Molitor plays his starting shortstop the next two weeks.

 

Of course, Sano is the elephant in the room right now, too. When is a decision made on this!

[Riverbrian]

 

Well yeah. They probably liked him in a utility role getting 200-ish PAs. It's a different story playing him every day.

 

If they liked him in a utility 200-ish role but not in a 600-ish PA Role. 

 

By my definition... that would be a recipe of bad planning with a heaping cup of lack of foresight and a couple of quarts of not noticing what has historically happened to nearly every single baseball player in history. 

 

If there is a player on the 25 man roster... they need to be someone who you trust to play a bunch of games without crippling your team because there is a strong likelihood that it will be necessary. 

 

If the Twins had any concerns about Adrianaza... They should have upgraded in the off-season. They didn't... so I'm going to assume he will be fine. 

[gocgo]

I went to the game today and overheard a coach (won't say which one) talking about Polanco and the "setback".  He said that Polanco made a mistake and isn't the kind of kid to do that kind of stuff on purpose and that he should have had it tested before he put it into his body.  Fair enough, but Adrianza started at short today and I think if he hits, he sticks.  Now the question is will Dozier be back next year and, if not, will Polanco challenge for the spot?  We'd be crazy to put Polanco back in at SS for the 2nd half of the year knowing that if we make the playoffs, he's out anyway.

[Mr. Brooks]

If they liked him in a utility 200-ish role but not in a 600-ish PA Role.

 

By my definition... that would be a recipe of bad planning with a heaping cup of lack of foresight and a couple of quarts of not noticing what has historically happened to nearly every single baseball player in history.

 

If there is a player on the 25 man roster... they need to be someone who you trust to play a bunch of games without crippling your team because there is a strong likelihood that it will be necessary.

 

If the Twins had any concerns about Adrianaza... They should have upgraded in the off-season. They didn't... so I'm going to assume he will be fine.

But there aren't enough players in the world for every team to have 25 players that are good enough to play every day.

If you are lucky enough to have the luxury of a bench player who is good enough to be an everyday player, you probably won't have that guy for long. He'll go somewhere where he can play everyday.

[Riverbrian]

 

But there aren't enough players in the world for every team to have 25 players that are good enough to play every day.
If you are lucky enough to have the luxury of a bench player who is good enough to be an everyday player, you probably won't have that guy for long. He'll go somewhere where he can play everyday.

 

The Twins could have signed Eduardo Nunez for 5 Million and not spent 1 million on Adrianaza.

 

The Twins could have traded for Jurickson Profar, Solarte or Chris Owings. 

 

Injuries are always possible... anything is always possible and not having a capable backup is a hole that needs to be filled because injuries happen and they happen a lot and nobody can predict them. 

 

I'm going to give the front office the benefit of the doubt and assume that he is capable because if he isn't... the front office failed. 

[Dr. Evil]

Escobar starts at short over Adrianza and it's not even a question in my opinion. I see no reason for this to presented as Adrianza's "big chance." Esco is a good ball player. Underrated in my opinion. But, I respect the opinions of those who do not agree. For me, Adrianza is a fringe major leaguer.

[Mr. Brooks]

The Twins could have signed Eduardo Nunez for 5 Million and not spent 1 million on Adrianaza.

 

The Twins could have traded for Jurickson Profar, Solarte or Chris Owings.

 

Injuries are always possible... anything is always possible and not having a capable backup is a hole that needs to be filled because injuries happen and they happen a lot and nobody can predict them.

 

I'm going to give the front office the benefit of the doubt and assume that he is capable because if he isn't... the front office failed.

Well, even though there is no salary cap in baseball, we know Falvine have a budget.

So, every dollar spent on backups is one less dollar spent on starters.

I'd rather have the money spent on players likely to play every day, rather than a bench player who MIGHT have to play a lot, IF the player ahead of him gets hurt or suspended.

Sure, if Falvine could predict the future, they might have been able to pay $5 million for a backup SS, without hurting the budget too much. That basically removes Morrison from the team, assuming they are at budget.

But since they can't predict which player will get hurt or suspended for a long period of time, they'd have to spend that much at every backup spot, which would severely cut into the budget for the players they expect to play everyday.

 

Then, there's also the obstacle of convincing players to take equal money to be an insurance policy, when they are good enough to start somewhere else. So, you'd likely have to pay a premium to acquire many of those players.

 

Are you willing to eliminate the signings of Morrison, Lynn, Reed, and Rodney, so they can instead sign starting caliber backups at every position?

I'm not. I'd assume most GM's with a budget also would not.

[Mr. Brooks]

Escobar starts at short over Adrianza and it's not even a question in my opinion. I see no reason for this to presented as Adrianza's "big chance." Esco is a good ball player. Underrated in my opinion. But, I respect the opinions of those who do not agree. For me, Adrianza is a fringe major leaguer.

You're probably right. But, I think it's more of a toss up than you think.

Escobar is a very poor defensive SS. At least by the metrics. And I think, with much of the Twins improvement last year coming from defense, that Molitor might be inclined to take a hard look at the better defender in this case.

[USAFChief]

I will be shocked if anyone still thinks Adrianza is a starting SS by June 1.

[Riverbrian]

 

Well, even though there is no salary cap in baseball, we know Falvine have a budget.
So, every dollar spent on backups is one less dollar spent on starters.
I'd rather have the money spent on players likely to play every day, rather than a bench player who MIGHT have to play a lot, IF the player ahead of him gets hurt or suspended.
Sure, if Falvine could predict the future, they might have been able to pay $5 million for a backup SS, without hurting the budget too much. That basically removes Morrison from the team, assuming they are at budget.
But since they can't predict which player will get hurt or suspended for a long period of time, they'd have to spend that much at every backup spot, which would severely cut into the budget for the players they expect to play everyday.

Then, there's also the obstacle of convincing players to take equal money to be an insurance policy, when they are good enough to start somewhere else. So, you'd likely have to pay a premium to acquire many of those players.

Are you willing to eliminate the signings of Morrison, Lynn, Reed, and Rodney, so they can instead sign starting caliber backups at every position?
I'm not. I'd assume most GM's with a budget also would not.

 

Here's the thing... I'm not a starting 9 guy. Too many years of watching players hitting under .210 and yet finding themselves in the starting lineup the next day because the team didn't have anything better.

 

I understand that budgets are necessary but I believe that a professional GM needs to be able to work within the constraints of that budget and prepare for the possibility of failure at any position. If it was easy... anybody can do it but to have one of the 30 jobs... you need to be able to do it. 

 

If the Twins don't have an adequate replacement for any player on this roster. When being a team in contention... not a tanking team but a team in contention... then yes... I do believe that they spent too much on starters and not enough on what will be needed replacements at some time. 

[Mike Sixel]

I will be shocked if anyone still thinks Adrianza is a starting SS by June 1.

Agreed. But I still give him a shot.

[gagu]

 

Escobar starts at short over Adrianza and it's not even a question in my opinion. I see no reason for this to presented as Adrianza's "big chance." Esco is a good ball player. Underrated in my opinion. But, I respect the opinions of those who do not agree. For me, Adrianza is a fringe major leaguer.

My take is that Escobar will probably be the starting 3B for about a month as Sano sits out a likely suspension. Adrianza just needs to outplay Aybar until the situation is re-evaluated in early May(?). I value Adrianza's defense, but maybe Aybar's a better regular starter for a month. Maybe Gordon forces his way up in June and takes ownership of the position.

I've never been a fan of Polanco at short, and 7 errors in 65 innings this spring hasn't helped change that opinion. Anyway, I'm OK with Adrianza and his strong defense for the short term.  

[Nick Nelson]

It comes down to this. What we saw last year was Escobar at his absolute offensive ceiling... we can all agree with that, right? And his defense at short clearly lags way behind Adrianza. Well, Escobar is one year removed from being a worse hitter than Adrianza, and he’s a year older. How far does the offensive gap need to close before they pass each other in value?

[kab21]

Adrianza in some ways is the second coming of Escobar. A not terrible MiLB career followed by several years of utility usage in the majors. Adrianza is currently better with the glove but certainly a step behind with the bat. 

 

The question right now is just what he will do with the bat. If he is anywhere in the upper .600's (like >680+ OPS) then he will do fine as a fill in for the first half of the season.

FWIW - Regardless if Sano is suspended I expect Escobar to be playing at 3B a lot (50% or more) this season. Escobar will get his days at SS and hopefully Aybar doesn't see the field.

[Platoon]

I will be shocked if anyone still thinks Adrianza is a starting SS by June 1.

I don't think anyone thinks Andrianza is a starting SS right now. But he may be the best option the Twins have this week? Rosterman made an excellent observation a page ago. All the depth at SS (we are told) and almost everyone of them, including Polanco seems slated for 2nd base. Or the OF. Javier (sp) may be the exception. Maybe our depth is at second? I can't say I have seen enough of Andrianza to have an eye test confirmation of his glove, but I have of EE. Saying he is steady at the position is like saying a 6'5" guy is a steady center in the NBA, but ignoring the fact everyone can reach further and jump higher. And maybe it's just me, but his hitting seems to suffer the more he plays. But, that may just me.

[Mr. Brooks]

Here's the thing... I'm not a starting 9 guy. Too many years of watching players hitting under .210 and yet finding themselves in the starting lineup the next day because the team didn't have anything better.

 

I understand that budgets are necessary but I believe that a professional GM needs to be able to work within the constraints of that budget and prepare for the possibility of failure at any position. If it was easy... anybody can do it but to have one of the 30 jobs... you need to be able to do it.

 

If the Twins don't have an adequate replacement for any player on this roster. When being a team in contention... not a tanking team but a team in contention... then yes... I do believe that they spent too much on starters and not enough on what will be needed replacements at some time.

Nobody has a starting caliber backup at every position. Not even the big spenders.

It's just not realistic.

Good, smart teams try to have the most talented, reliable backups they can. Because injuries do happen. But it's just not practical to have backups at every position that won't make you miss your starter over the long haul.

If you did, they wouldn't be backups, they'd be starters somewhere, and market forces would ensure that. The only way your idea would work, IMO, would be to contract to about 18 teams. There just isn't a large enough talent pool to consistently allow teams to have 25 everyday caliber players.

[Ghost_Of_Sid_Hartman]

Calling Polanco a cheater is unfair. However, calling him Stupid is accurate. An athlete has a single most valuable asset (and before the critics jump in, I know there are others) and that's their body. To take any drug assuming that another person prepared exactly what you asked for is absolutely ignorant. It reminds me of Len Bias in 1986 who decided to try heroin two days after being the second pick in the NBA draft. He died. What a waste of an asset and human. If all you want is B-12 and an iron supplement, go to the drug store and buy it yourself. Or even better, go to Costco and get humongous jars for a fraction of the price.

Len Bias died of a cocaine induced cardiac dysrhythmia, not heroin.

[Riverbrian]

 

Nobody has a starting caliber backup at every position. Not even the big spenders.
It's just not realistic.
Good, smart teams try to have the most talented, reliable backups they can. Because injuries do happen. But it's just not practical to have backups at every position that won't make you miss your starter over the long haul.
If you did, they wouldn't be backups, they'd be starters somewhere, and market forces would ensure that. The only way your idea would work, IMO, would be to contract to about 18 teams. There just isn't a large enough talent pool to consistently allow teams to have 25 everyday caliber players.

 

I agree not every team will have starting caliber backups... Actually not every team has starting caliber starters. But... if you fancy yourself a contending team... you better be staffed to the hilt or you'll be trying to win a race through the desert without enough water.  

 

When the starters go down... that is when opportunity happens for the backups or farm hands and they gotta have someone who can take advantage of that chance. If the Twins brass doesn't believe that Adrianaza can help the team for 162 games... they shouldn't be paying him 1 million dollars to keep him around. 

 

Players who have the talent to take advantage of that opportunity is exactly how Chris Taylor of the Dodgers was created. Logan Forsythe on April 19th, 2017 breaks a toe. Chris Taylor is called up from the minors to replace him. Chris Taylor becomes critical to the Dodgers Season the rest of the way. No Dodger fan is thinking... no worries... we got Chris Taylor when Logan goes down but he was the first phone call. When Forsythe comes back now the Dodgers really have options they trust and they barely miss a beat when they move Taylor over to 3B because Turner is out... to SS when Seager is out and move Taylor out to the OF... A position he hadn't been playing and he is able to sub in for a slumping Joc Pederson. 

 

I realize that Chris Taylor may be one in a million but the point is... other players get playing time when Polanco gets suspended. Opportunity is created... If the Twins have the right guys in that situation... Depth is improved because now Paul Molitor has even more options that he trusts.

 

The team has to have someone who can step up and do the job or they are not contenders. If the Twins have to shoe horn a struggling Aaron Hicks into the lineup because they have nobody else... they are not contenders and they failed to provide a decent safety net.  

 

No contending team should give a player a million dollars to an Adrianaza type with the mindset that he will play once a week. If you pay him a million dollars to keep him around... you better believe in that guy for the long haul or else go find someone who you do believe in for that million dollars you are spending. Find that guy who could rise up if given the chance. 

 

I'm assuming because we are in contention and Adrianaza is still around... That the Twins believe in him. If they don't... we need a new front office. 

 

Now I can't wait to find out if they were right. It's judgement time. 

[ashbury]

I'm assuming because we are in contention and Adrianaza is still around... That the Twins believe in him. If they don't... we need a new front office. 

I would have expected a warning ticket, and not immediate revocation of their license to drive.

[yarnivek1972]

I agree not every team will have starting caliber backups... Actually not every team has starting caliber starters. But... if you fancy yourself a contending team... you better be staffed to the hilt or you'll be trying to win a race through the desert without enough water.

 

When the starters go down... that is when opportunity happens for the backups or farm hands and they gotta have someone who can take advantage of that chance. If the Twins brass doesn't believe that Adrianaza can help the team for 162 games... they shouldn't be paying him 1 million dollars to keep him around.

 

Players who have the talent to take advantage of that opportunity is exactly how Chris Taylor of the Dodgers was created. Logan Forsythe on April 19th, 2017 breaks a toe. Chris Taylor is called up from the minors to replace him. Chris Taylor becomes critical to the Dodgers Season the rest of the way. No Dodger fan is thinking... no worries... we got Chris Taylor when Logan goes down but he was the first phone call. When Forsythe comes back now the Dodgers really have options they trust and they barely miss a beat when they move Taylor over to 3B because Turner is out... to SS when Seager is out and move Taylor out to the OF... A position he hadn't been playing and he is able to sub in for a slumping Joc Pederson.

 

I realize that Chris Taylor may be one in a million but the point is... other players get playing time when Polanco gets suspended. Opportunity is created... If the Twins have the right guys in that situation... Depth is improved because now Paul Molitor has even more options that he trusts.

 

The team has to have someone who can step up and do the job or they are not contenders. If the Twins have to shoe horn a struggling Aaron Hicks into the lineup because they have nobody else... they are not contenders and they failed to provide a decent safety net.

 

No contending team should give a player a million dollars to an Adrianaza type with the mindset that he will play once a week. If you pay him a million dollars to keep him around... you better believe in that guy for the long haul or else go find someone who you do believe in for that million dollars you are spending. Find that guy who could rise up if given the chance.

 

I'm assuming because we are in contention and Adrianaza is still around... That the Twins believe in him. If they don't... we need a new front office.

 

Now I can't wait to find out if they were right. It's judgement time.

$ 1 mil is pocket change in MLB contract terms. That isn’t any kind of financial commitment or anything that says “this is my guy”. It says this is a replacement level player, period.

[yarnivek1972]

I will be shocked if anyone still thinks Adrianza is a starting SS by June 1.

Greg Gagne posted a career OPS+ of 83. He’s a Twins Hall of Famer.

 

The bar is pretty low. I think he’ll be fine. His ability to make contact will likely keep him away from prolonged slumps.

 

Is he a good enough hitter to be a regular all the time? No.

 

I don’t personally believe that Escobar is as good as he was last year either. Just like Nick Punto was never as good as 2006. Adrianza is clearly the better glove man and I think that is vastly more important.

 

As long as the guys that are supposed to hit hit, it shouldn’t be a problem.

[Platoon]

There was an article in today's? Strib that indicates Molitor is most likely to give the innings to EE. It wouldn't be my choice, nor would it surprise me. Many of Molitors choices have tended toward offense over defense.

[Riverbrian]

 

$ 1 mil is pocket change in MLB contract terms. That isn’t any kind of financial commitment or anything that says “this is my guy”. It says this is a replacement level player, period.

 

Maybe but the 25 man roster spot is extremely valuable in my opinion. 

[yarnivek1972]

Maybe but the 25 man roster spot is extremely valuable in my opinion.

So, if Adrianza isn’t getting the job done you cut him and move on to the next option. That’s what you do with replacement level players with small contracts.

[diehardtwinsfan]

In my opinion, but I wouldn't be surprised if Gordon gets an extended look. They will need to get an idea if he's ready to replace Dozier next season. I don't see Adrianza being anything more than what he was signed to be.

 

Escobar, I do think can hold the position. His bat more than makes up for his defensive liability, but that will depend on the Sano situation. If both Sano and Polanco are out for a period of time, I could see that as a quick trial for Gordon. I'm not sure I'd run with Adrianza every day.