Article: Winter Meetings - Search For A Starter

[old nurse]

 

Cole makes sense, but If I was talking to the Pirates, it makes more sense to package him with MacCutchen and Rivero.   Here is what I proposed.

They would do that trade in a minute if only you included Buddy Boshers

Edited December 12, 2017 by old nurse

[Steve Lein]

 

Not as well as Granite. And if you move one of the two, you do need a corner OF, which the Twins don't have, so it will cost more to do the deal than if you can find a different prospect to fill the space in the trade. 

 

Like I said before, I wouldn't stop the trade if it included Granite but there may be a better alternative. Maybe provide an actual OF you'd get as a FA and serve it beside the sarcasm.

 

While you hope you don't have to rely on them in CF, they are plenty capable to fill in.

 

There are literally numerous corner OF options. On the 40-man: Grossman, Garver, Adrianza.

 

In the minors: LaMonte Wade, Edgar Corcino.

 

Then they are a dime a dozen on FA market. Granite should not hold anything up.

[markos]

 

We might also be over estimating Cole. He has name recognition but he was decidedly average last year and only threw 116 ml innings the year before. He can eat innings but his era and fip weren't great. What do we think we're getting for his two years?

First, I think Cole has a fairly reasonable floor - he was an innings eater last year but still manage ~3 WAR, and prior to that he has averaged at least 4 WAR/200 innings. So that is good, especially considering where the Twins rotation is.

 

Second, I think there is still a lot of upside. He just completed his age-26 season, so he is younger than anyone on the free agent market. He throws HARD, averaging over 95+ on his fastball. He has all the ingredients to make a leap in the next two seasons. It obviously isn't a given that he will, but he certainly can. And it isn't unheard of for pitchers to take their game to another level in their late-20s: Scherzer, Arrieta, and Kluber all went from slightly-better-than-league-average to Cy Young contender at age 28. That is the bet I'm making when I'm advocating for Cole.

 

So that is what I think we are getting. A reasonable floor over the next two seasons with legitimate top-of-the-rotation upside. I think that is a good bet for the Twins to take right now.

[nicksaviking]

As one of the few good lefties available in free agency and on the trade block, I'd have to think the Twins would be pretty interested in Danny Duffy. As far as lefties go, all they have are the largely unproven Mejia and the even more unproven Gonsalves as rotation options, both of whom probably make pretty solid trade bait as well.

[drewbyrne]

Archer will cost more than anyone wants to give up, It will be Royce lewis along with Gonsalves and Ramero. IMO thats not worth it. I'd no that package for cole in a heartbeat but we would like have to add one more high upside piece like enlow.

[howieramone2]

 

Do not know his status or his agent, but Lewis should be here in 2019 or 2020 and Twins have many middle infield prospects.  Would hate to lose Gordon and or Jay,  but cannot see the message the Twins are satisfied with a wild card spot, will make it tough to land top flight talent in the future.  Remember the White Sox see their window opening about 2020 and they are one of the top ranked farm systems (like the Twins were a couple of years ago).  Let's not blow this.

The White Sox have a country club atmosphere. When they hired their G.M., they went on the cheap. Guarantee Rate is going to become a parking lot.

[Mike Sixel]

zippy

12:25 Gordon, Jay, and Granite for 2 years of Cole - Do you make that trade if you're the Twins or try to sub out something for a lesser prospect(s)?

 

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:27 I wouldn't be confident in Jay's ability to stay healthy and would be asking for Gonsalves instead.

12:28 And I prefer Wade to Granite, but if Pittsburgh thinks Granite plays a killer CF then that makes sense. He could play CF until Meadows shows he's healthy and ready and then move into a 4th OF role.

[howieramone2]

 

I wouldn't stop the trade because of Granite but I would try to offer a different prospect. Buxton will likely miss some time this season. The Twins don't have another CF who is even close on defense. That means spending more money on the FA market, which increases the cost of the trade. 

No team has a CF whose even close on defense. Rosario can fill in if push comes to shove. We can't stop a move for the starting pitcher we so desperately need, by being concerned about a lightweight like Granite.

[jimmer]

I do Cole for Gordon, Jay & Granite in a heartbeat. Offer Cole a deal in the 4-year / $40-48mil range and buy out his remaining remaining two arb years & first two years of FA. The guy could be a horse.

thats assuming he would take that and I wouldnt make that assumption. Hes going to get a big raise in arbitration this year and likely next. Then he will have just turned 29 as a FA.That extension suggestion is way below what he would get between arbitration and FA.

 

That is my major concern. Is we get him and he is gone after two years.

Edited December 12, 2017 by jimmer

[jimmer]

zippy

12:25 Gordon, Jay, and Granite for 2 years of Cole - Do you make that trade if you're the Twins or try to sub out something for a lesser prospect(s)?

 

 

Eric A Longenhagen

12:27 I wouldn't be confident in Jay's ability to stay healthy and would be asking for Gonsalves instead.

12:28 And I prefer Wade to Granite, but if Pittsburgh thinks Granite plays a killer CF then that makes sense. He could play CF until Meadows shows he's healthy and ready and then move into a 4th OF role.

its funny cause the person who asked the question was asking Erica if you were the Twins would you take it? and Eric answered in the POV of the Pirates. Edited December 12, 2017 by jimmer

[dbminn]

 

While you hope you don't have to rely on them in CF, they are plenty capable to fill in.

 

There are literally numerous corner OF options. On the 40-man: Grossman, Garver, Adrianza.

 

In the minors: LaMonte Wade, Edgar Corcino.

 

Then they are a dime a dozen on FA market. Granite should not hold anything up.

 

Great - a lousy defender, a utility infielder and two AA players. If Granite is "dime a dozen", I'm sure Pittsburgh wouldn't mind having a different dime a dozen player thrown in. I'd prefer to have a capable defensive OF at AAA in case Buxton is out for more than a week.

[USNMCPO]

 

If that would be the actual cost for Cole, I'm doing that trade.

 

While a lot of people love Archer and his stuff, I'd honestly rather have Cole for what the price will be, and I've always thought of Archer as an enigma. To me he has the weirdest, non-competitive demeanor on the mound I've ever seen. Now, it's not like that has prevented him from striking a bunch of guys out and dominating at times, but something is just "off" there for me.

 

Also, Archer's career WAR vs. Cole's WAR is only 11.9 to 11.4 (bref), and Cole has pitched one less season. Archer put up 4.3 in 2015 and Cole 4.5 that same season. They both gave up a bunch of HR's last year, but before that Cole was very good at keeping the ball in the yard while Archer's been giving them up at that rate 2+ seasons.

 

What I'm saying is, I don't think Archer is far and away better than Cole to justify the price difference in a trade that it seems it's going to require.

 

My first choice is sign Yu Darvish, but trading for Cole would be my second option and I don't see why they couldn't do both if they really wanted. Trading for Archer is a distant option for me and I realize I may be the minority on that.

I look at those numbers and wonder if the difference in competition is taken into count. I am no stats guy, but it seems that the Rays play in a much tougher division full of bandbox ballparks.

[Shane Wahl]

I would make that trade in a heartbeat. I have Gordon as the no. 5 prospect in the system behind Gonsalves, Lewis, Romero, and Rooker. I think Gordon needs another year at AA to get those strikeouts down. Jay was good in Fort Myers in 2016, but there is nothing else to rely on in terms of a long-term projection as a starter. Granite is very expendable with the likes of Rooker and Wade behind him. 

 

It seems pretty obvious to me. I understand potentially being hesitant about parting with Gordon, but Polanco and Escobar are there at the moment. Obviously this all would change if the Twins decided to trade Dozier.

[ppearson50]

If we sign Kinzler, Rodney or Nicasio, does that person get named closer automatically? 

[Shane Wahl]

For the record, Gordon would strikeout about as much as Sano at this point if pushed to the majors. He needs another full year at AA. And you all know that I am not one to say something like that about prospects.

[Jham]

If this is all it takes to get Cole why wouldn't we have traded for him at the deadline last season? Sheesh. I don't think Cole gets value. I'm willing to be patient on Archer and wait for the price yo drop.

[Thrylos]

 

If we sign Kinzler, Rodney or Nicasio, does that person get named closer automatically? 

 

Better not, because they are not closers in teams that hope to go deep in a post-season.  The Twins need at least a pitcher better than those

[ppearson50]

Pirates Breakdown‏
@pbcbreakdown

Hearing: Teams still poking around on Cole's availability are down to Twins / Yankees / Mariners. Talks labelled as "still in discussion phase."

[FlauerPauer]

If that was the package for Cole, I think it would be a done deal pending physicals.

 

I would create a package around Lewis to get Archer with very, very little hesitation.  Lewis, Gonsalves/Romero, Granite/Wade, Jay.

 

Lewis may be a stud five years from now, but Archer is a stud today.  Gonsalves is a projected 3.  Romero is likely headed to the bullpen.  Granite and Wade are extremely replaceable; I don't see either hitting MLB pitching at a high enough level to be more than a fourth outfielder.  Jay is a wildcard that could bounce back and become a backend rotation starter or become a nice bullpen guy.  I'd imagine there'd be a player coming back from Tampa as well; maybe a bullpen guy?

 

After you make this trade, sign Lynn or Cobb or even better, trade for Cole as well.  Use the money saved by not spending it on a starter by putting that into the bullpen and maybe a bench bat.  Now we're staring to cook with gas here, boys.

 

Archer

Santana

Lynn/Cobb/Cole

Berrios 

Gibson/Mejia

 

Pitching staff looks a whole lot better.

[ppearson50]

That would just be so unTwins like to trade for or sign two of the top five or six starting pitchers available in an offseason. That has never happened in the history of the franchise. 

Did the Twins sign Nolasco and Santana in the same offseason?

 

[bobs]

Where do we sign for that trade!!  Hate to see Gordon go, but if they can lose a top prospect at any position, it's SS.

[Vanimal46]

 

zippy
12:25 Gordon, Jay, and Granite for 2 years of Cole - Do you make that trade if you're the Twins or try to sub out something for a lesser prospect(s)?


Eric A Longenhagen
12:27 I wouldn't be confident in Jay's ability to stay healthy and would be asking for Gonsalves instead.
12:28 And I prefer Wade to Granite, but if Pittsburgh thinks Granite plays a killer CF then that makes sense. He could play CF until Meadows shows he's healthy and ready and then move into a 4th OF role.

 

 

I'm in agreement with Longenhagen. All of those players are interchangeable IMO. Whatever combination of 3 players the Pirates want to make the deal happen. 

[Thrylos]

 

 

Did the Twins sign Nolasco and Santana in the same offseason?

 

Nolasco and Hughes

[ashbury]

I do not make that proposed trade for Cole instantly. I ask them for a medium-grade SS prospect in addition, and then failing that I ask for some International Free Agent cap money. I don't want them thinking I'm some barracuda by accepting their offer too fast - they might wake up and back out of it, saying "hey, waitaminnit."

[old nurse]

It looks like the Yankees have managed to dump Headley's contract on the Padres, giving them 13 million to play with in the starting pitching market.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm in agreement with Longenhagen. All of those players are interchangeable IMO. Whatever combination of 3 players the Pirates want to make the deal happen.

Hate to lose Gordon, but Wade and Granite are the same to me. Jay might be great, or never heathy. I probably do that deal, but only if the plan is to also add a free agent or three. Two years is very short term, so if you do this, you should commit money too.

[jkcarew]

To me the only thing worth quibbling about in a hypothetical Gordon-Jay-Granite for Cole trade would be how to factor in the issue of only getting 2 years of control.  If you were confident that you could solve for that problem, I don't see why the names would bother a Twins fan.

 

Gordon did not seem 'almost ready' for the entire 2nd half of last year.  While he's been younger than his competition all along the way, based on what he's shown offensively so far, it seems a great deal of his value will be dependent upon playing a position that nobody seems convinced he can play on an every-day basis at the major league level.

 

Granite...as a left-handed hitter (without power), has exactly zero offensive value for the twins.  He's injury insurance.  If you think you can significantly improve your rotation, you're going to be ok worrying about injury insurance on another day.

 

Tyler Jay at this point is a 24 year old high-risk, high-upside, lottery ticket.

 

Based on organizational depth, risk, fit with current roster...these guys would be at the very top of the list of prospects (that actually have value) I would be willing to move if I were Twins management.

[Shane Wahl]

 

To me the only thing worth quibbling about in a hypothetical Gordon-Jay-Granite for Cole trade would be how to factor in the issue of only getting 2 years of control.  If you were confident that you could solve for that problem, I don't see why the names would bother a Twins fan.

 

Gordon did not seem 'almost ready' for the entire 2nd half of last year.  While he's been younger than his competition all along the way, based on what he's shown offensively so far, it seems a great deal of his value will be dependent upon playing a position that nobody seems convinced he can play on an every-day basis at the major league level.

 

Granite...as a left-handed hitter (without power), has exactly zero offensive value for the twins.  He's injury insurance.  If you think you can significantly improve your rotation, you're going to be ok worrying about injury insurance on another day.

 

Tyler Jay at this point is a 24 year old high-risk, high-upside, lottery ticket.

 

Based on organizational depth, risk, fit with current roster...these guys would be at the very top of the list of prospects (that actually have value) I would be willing to move if I were Twins management.

Holy cow, all of this. 

[howieramone2]

 

That would just be so unTwins like to trade for or sign two of the top five or six starting pitchers available in an offseason. That has never happened in the history of the franchise. 

Did the Twins sign Nolasco and Santana in the same offseason?

Not only that, it has probably never happened in the history of baseball.

[jkcarew]

 

I would create a package around Lewis to get Archer with very, very little hesitation.  Lewis, Gonsalves/Romero, Granite/Wade, Jay.

 

 

Yikes.  Not me.  To me you don't trade the number 1 overall pick, when that pick is a position player, and especially when that pick is going to be a middle-of-the-field defender, to obtain any pitcher.  At least not until that number 1 pick has had a chance to show you some cracks that will limit that ceiling.  That day may come for Lewis (I sincerely hope it doesn't)...but I don't think we're there at this point.  Too soon.

 

Now when I say "any" pitcher.....well, let's just say Archer would not be an exception to the rule.