Article: Can The Twins Win With Dozier And Mauer?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

someone upthread said something about pitching....

[Ryan Atkins]

Yes (answering the question), with all of the qualifications noted by others.

 

With respect to Dozier, I don't see the logjam. You have an established better-than-average 2B who can play every day. Why would you want to indiscriminately dump him in favor of uncertainty and hope.

 

Over the last 3+ seasons (2014-now), Brian Dozier is 3rd in AL in WAR, 1st in HR, 2nd in RBI, 2nd in SB, 2nd in Runs Scored.

 

Extend Dozier and hopefully have Gordon starting at SS in 2019 (giving Polanco one more chance to prove himself next year).

[Ryan Atkins]

Mauer is proving to be one of the better fielding 1B in the league and he should continue to be good at working the count and getting on base. But a traditional power hitting 1B he is not.

 

For 1B/DH, I wonder what Levine/Falvey have in mind for ByungHo Park & Kennys Vargas? Will Park get another shot? Will Vargas ever have staying power at the big league level? Do either have trade value? What do you do with these guys?

[gocgo]

 

The Twins simply were not good enough to "go for it".  Most every year some team overplays their talent and has a record for the first portion of the season that is better than it should be. However, even a cursory look at the Twins 2017 run differential showed that this team was nearer to the bottom of the league than being an above 500 ball club and division leader, even in a weak division.  

 

THe Twins have a handful of guys that figure over the long run, but their roster is far from complete.  They fooled themselves this season by pretending that they were better than they were and because of that we are going to pay the price of not bringing up players like Mitch Garver and a lot of pitching prospects because they are going to have to get their major league adjustments in future years, costing the team losses in those years that they should have incurred in 2017.

 

Brian Dozier has unfortunately been part of an organization that had management stall their rebuild by clinging to the "Twins Way" despite the need to radically rebuild from scratch.  

If they weren't good enough to go for it, why acquire Garcia?  I get it that a tough west coast trip coincided with a Cleveland and Royals run, but here we sit just 3.5 back of the wildcard...so what if we get beat in the first round.  It's playoff experience for the core 4.  They didn't need to buy more, just stand pat with what they had and instead they sold.  

[old nurse]

 

In fairness to the FO, they did try hard to sign a DH this last off season. I didn't love the choice, but they tried. Of course, trying is not the same as succeeding, and it's their job to succeed, not try. But they clearly felt it was an issue that needed addressing, so that indicates a certain knowledge of the team's strengths that should increase our confidence in them some.

Napoli has an OPS+ of 85. Suddenly Mauer and Grossman look better.

[Dantes929]

 

3.5 games back from a one game lottery ticket on the road to hope to make the REAL playoffs... I don't know why people are so excited about the possibility of being a wild card team... that isn't really that good of a thing in baseball. We need to build to winning a division and being serious playoff contenders

You have to be in it to win it.    Exactly half the teams that get in as wild cards get in the "REAL" playoffs. Once past the wild card play in game Wild card teams have won 23 and lost 21 series in the first round of the playoffs and have won 12 League championships series and lost 11.   Once in the world series the wild card teams have won 6 and lost 6.   Essentially, you have a 50/50 chance of making the real playoffs if you get in as a wild card and then once in you have   as good a chance as anyone else statistically.     I would buy tons of lottery tickets with odds even a small fraction of that.    Do I want the Twins to win the Central every year and being what you would consider a serious playoff contender?   Of course.   That doesn't mean that with where the Twins are right now I wouldn't also love for them to make the play in game.     Just three years back KC was almost certainly going to go 0-1 in the playoffs but ended up coming back in the play in game and won their next 7 games.   That is the kind of roller coaster  possibility (not probability) that makes sports fun.

[Kwak]

 

Yes (answering the question), with all of the qualifications noted by others.

 

With respect to Dozier, I don't see the logjam. You have an established better-than-average 2B who can play every day. Why would you want to indiscriminately dump him in favor of uncertainty and hope.

 

Over the last 3+ seasons (2014-now), Brian Dozier is 3rd in AL in WAR, 1st in HR, 2nd in RBI, 2nd in SB, 2nd in Runs Scored.

 

Extend Dozier and hopefully have Gordon starting at SS in 2019 (giving Polanco one more chance to prove himself next year).

Extend Dozier?  

 

For how much?  At what level do you say No.  I don't see hundreds of thousands of shirts with Dozier's name on them happening.  If he demands a huge contract--will he generate the revenue to support it?  Mauer did, but I don't see Dozier as an heir-apparent to Mauer as "the chosen one".  

 

Several posts have shown Dozier's statistics to show him as very much in the middle--as a 2B--but not as "the big gun".  A middle-of-the-pack 2B can be had without a premium contract.  It would make more sense to spend the "big money" on a "Slugger" DH or a solid #2 starting pitcher than on Brian Dozier.

[Thrylos]

 

While I would love to have better players at first and DH, Grossman is 6th in the AL in OBP, Mauer is 12th.

Sano is 20th, everybody else is below Dozier who is 54th.

 

Nope.  Adrianza is a .337, ahead of Dozier.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

With respect to Dozier, I don't see the logjam. You have an established better-than-average 2B

 

Better than average?  In which way? 

 

Dozier's rankings among second basemen:

fWAR: 13th
wOBA: 17th
wRC+: 16th
OPS: 18th
fangraphs Clutch: 29th

 

That's looks pretty mediocre/average to me.  Objectively.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The way the team is constructed currently, Dozier may just be the best leadoff hitting option. This could change with Buxton or Gordon in the next year or two, or Granite. Again, as currently constructed, Mauer or Grossman should probably hit in the 2 hole. But again, this could change in the next year or two. Perhaps Buxton, successful as a leadoff hitter in the minors, assumes the spot. Gordon is being groomed for the spot and doing pretty well there. Honestly, how about Granite seeing duty at OF, CF and even DH in the top spot? Nobody says your DH has to be a power hitter.

 

You sign or trade for a power bat to DH and play 1B with Mauer sitting some days and Granite can even DH some days, playing at least 4 or 5 days as a regular. Just a thought.

 

I like Dozier. I like Polanco and believe we have not seen the best of him yet, not even close, and he could emerge as a nice 2 hitter. Gordon shows real potential, whether he ultimately settles in at 2B or SS. Part of the Dozier dilema is whether he's around long term or not.

 

Mauer should hit at the top of the lineup, or the bottom where his experience and OB, with occasional power, could help flip the lineup again. But when we discuss this particular thread, I think part of the issue is, are we discussing 2017 and 2018? Both? Or are we discussing more beyond that?

bold prediction as neither Mauer nor Dozier are under contract in 2019...

[alarp33]

 

Yes (answering the question), with all of the qualifications noted by others.

 

With respect to Dozier, I don't see the logjam. You have an established better-than-average 2B who can play every day. Why would you want to indiscriminately dump him in favor of uncertainty and hope.

 

Over the last 3+ seasons (2014-now), Brian Dozier is 3rd in AL in WAR, 1st in HR, 2nd in RBI, 2nd in SB, 2nd in Runs Scored.

 

 

 

He's 9th in WAR out of 11 AL 2nd baseman this year.  Your 2014-2017 sample size uses all counting stats, in which he's one of only 4 players to play 500 games (he's at 569).  

 

You don't extend someone because of past performance, you extend based on the future, and he'll be entering his age 32 season when his contract is up

[wabene]

Wasn't it Napoli?

 

Woulda been fun!

[Taildragger8791]

 

You have to be in it to win it.    Exactly half the teams that get in as wild cards get in the "REAL" playoffs. Once past the wild card play in game Wild card teams have won 23 and lost 21 series in the first round of the playoffs and have won 12 League championships series and lost 11.   Once in the world series the wild card teams have won 6 and lost 6.   Essentially, you have a 50/50 chance of making the real playoffs if you get in as a wild card and then once in you have   as good a chance as anyone else statistically.     I would buy tons of lottery tickets with odds even a small fraction of that.    Do I want the Twins to win the Central every year and being what you would consider a serious playoff contender?   Of course.   That doesn't mean that with where the Twins are right now I wouldn't also love for them to make the play in game.     Just three years back KC was almost certainly going to go 0-1 in the playoffs but ended up coming back in the play in game and won their next 7 games.   That is the kind of roller coaster  possibility (not probability) that makes sports fun.

 

Since they added the 2nd wildcard, what has the success rate been for the 2nd team?

[Taildragger8791]

 

Very interesting post! And I wonder sometimes about Dozier's numbers in regard to RISP. Are his low numbers a result of SSS hitting leadoff with poor hitters in front of him? Or is he truly bad in this scenario? Is don't have numbers either way, but wondering.

 

Hitting with RISP doesn't depend on the hitters in front of him, as far rate stats go. That's all on Dozier.

[stringer bell]

Brian Dozier has easily been the Twins best player since he moved to second base. He's been a good player for most of the four years, with a few dreadful months mixed in and a superstar summer last year from June to mid-September. I'll also say that Dozier is playing at a position that is packed in MLB. 10-15 years ago, a second baseman with Dozier's power performance would be elite at his position. Not now.

 

I like Dozier as a person, a bit of an aw-shucks southern gentleman with no skeletons in his closet. I like him as a player because he's durable and has far exceeded projections for himself since being a mid-round no power draft choice.

 

That said, some of Dozier's act is wearing on me a bit. He acts like a superstar without portfolio to me, doesn't bust it down the line when he hits a popup or routine grounder, he makes many lollipop throws, although he cuts loose when he has to, and his demeanor at the plate seems to be I'm a great player, why don't I get the borderline pitches?

 

I do wonder if he is playing 100% healthy, which would explain the apparent lack of hustle. In addition, he's stopped stealing bases and seems a step slower on the pads. Or maybe it is just turning 30.

 

Dozier has made improvements in going the other way and he's capable of drawing a walk. However, now that the team seems out of it for the season, BD seems more intent on hitting bombs than having good at-bats.

 

I think there's a chance that Dozier could have another superstar season, maybe even better than 2016 turned out in it's entirety, but father time makes that unlikely. I also think that the Twins can be winners with Dozier manning second base, but there is a lot of things that have to improve.

[Mr. Brooks]

Nope. Adrianza is a .337, ahead of Dozier.

Adrianza doesn't have close to enough PA to qualify.

[ashbury]

I do wonder if he is playing 100% healthy, which would explain the apparent lack of hustle.

I wonder that too when I watch him run down the first base line. Sometimes a gamer can get the opposite reputation with fans if he plays hurt and doesn't broadcast it.

[Dantes929]

 

Since they added the 2nd wildcard, what has the success rate been for the 2nd team?

The 2nd team has gone 7-3 against the 1st wild card team since the expanded format.

[The Wise One]

If you need Mauer and Dozier to be your main players then the Twins will not win. If there was a productive outfield the bats of Dozier and Mauer would not matter.  If by some form of black magic a healthy an productive Madison Bumgartner and Dallas Keuchel fall into the Twin's rotation the Twins wouldn't need as much offense. 

[Squirrel]

I do wonder if he is playing 100% healthy, which would explain the apparent lack of hustle. In addition, he's stopped stealing bases and seems a step slower on the pads. Or maybe it is just turning 30.

Or maybe his frustration we've seen him express lately is creeping into his play mentally?

[Craig Arko]

Or maybe his frustration we've seen him express lately is creeping into his play mentally?

That will all go away when the people in the game are replaced by robots.

[ashbury]

That will all go away when the people in the game are replaced by robots.

Approves:

 

 

Meanwhile I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.

[Vanimal46]

 

Approves:

 

 

Meanwhile I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.

 

Mr. Clanky and Pablo Sanchez were unstoppable! 

[ashbury]

Mr. Clanky and Pablo Sanchez were unstoppable! 

La máquina!

[Sweetwater]

Mauer's best years he was surrounded by a top 5 starting pitcher, a top 5 closer, a top-tier first baseman, Torii Hunter, etc...The Twins did not waste his talent. His hitting just slowly but steadily fell off the cliff. And only he is to blame for that. Even if it was more his body than anything.

[jimmer]

 

Mauer's best years he was surrounded by a top 5 starting pitcher, a top 5 closer, a top-tier first baseman, Torii Hunter, etc...The Twins did not waste his talent. His hitting just slowly but steadily fell off the cliff. And only he is to blame for that. Even if it was more his body than anything.

Yeah, Mauer's hitting didn't slowly but steadily fall off thee cliff.  He got the concussion (not his fault) and his hitting fell sharply afterwards.

[DrNeau]

Can we win with Mauer? As of today, of the 27 MLB 1B with a qualifying amount of ABs in 2017, Joe Mauer ranks the following:

 

HR: 27th of 27 (dead last)
 

RBI: 27th of 27 (dead last)
 

ISO (Isolated Power): 27th of 27 (dead last)
 

OPS: 24th of 27
 

Z-Swing % (% of strikes swung at): 27th of 27 (dead last). For the record, Votto ranks 7th. He swings at 71% of strikes. Mauer spits on them - even with runners in scoring position. He was MVP in CIN and people ripped him for taking too many walks. He has demonstrated that he swings on a regular basis if it's in the zone. Mauer swings at less strikes than nearly anyone in the league.
 

Knowing that Joe Mauer has ZERO speed element to his game, these numbers are pitiful. Joe is not doing his part. In comparison to other starting players who play the same position as him, he is one of the absolute worst. FWIW, of the 161 MLB players with a qualifying amount of ABs, Joe ranks 160th in Z-Swing %. It is generally not good when your team's 3-hole hitter is the worst-hitting in MLB for his respective position. 

 

[h2oface]

 

The stats above show exactly why Dozier would not work in the middle of the lineup. This year, for the third straight year he going on his annual statistical binge when it is least needed. Two years ago he flatlined during the heat of the 2nd WC hunt. Last year he awoke about the time the team was statistically eliminated. The fact that this was at the ASG break is irrelevant. And this year he has been pretty low key during his teams rise, albeit temporarily, to the top of the division. Needless to say upon the waving of that "white flag" he has again went on a meaningless tear.

I get the sentiment.... but...... if Dozier really does go a tear right now, with the team only 2.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card birth........ this is exactly the time for Dozier to go on a "statistical binge".

Edited August 9, 2017 by h2oface

[kellyvance]

Look, Dozier is by far NOT the problem and Joe is producing. He is high on hits with RISP and OBP. He is a veteran and there is nobody I'd rather see up there with the game on the line.

No the problem is less than ordinary pitching. And to those who say Dozier doesn't drive in enough runs.... they hit him leadoff. If, for example he had 1 guy on last year when he homered, that is 84 RBIs just on his homers.
Twins fans like to bitch. But these two guys are two of the biggest reasons they are in contention. Nick should have found some other negative article to write

How about, the Twins are so so because they think hiring a 44 year old washed up thrower seems like the thing to do in a pennant race.
Somebody give Nick a hug. Seems overdue

[kellyvance]

Come on Kelly, lighten up