Article: Deadline Primer: Are Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

[markos]

 

I think the Sale trade was an off-season deal though, correct?
I think with the trade deadline premium they could get close to as much for Quintana.

I'm skeptical the deadline premium is quite that significant. But I guess it only takes one desperate team to do something crazy.

[spinowner]

It's now the second inning of the first game after the break. I think we now know that we are not buyers.

[LaBombo]

 

 

Love Neshek. But if the Twins burn a prospect on a two month reliever rental in an effort to reach the coin flip game with a team that currently ranks second from the bottom of the A.L in third order win percentage, then my 'let's give it a couple of years' phase of the FaLeveyine era will end instantly, because I'll know pretty much everything I need to about their odds of bringing meaningful success to the Twins. 

Edited July 15, 2017 by LaBombo

[D.C Twins]

 

Love Neshek. But if the Twins burn a prospect on a two month reliever rental in an effort to reach the coin flip game with a team that currently ranks second from the bottom of the A.L in third order win percentage, then my 'let's give it a couple of years' phase of the FaLeveyine era will end instantly, because I'll know absolutely everything I need to about their odds of bringing meaningful success to the Twins. 

 

Amen....Must trade Santana as well if a quality package is offered (and I think it will be)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Love Neshek. But if the Twins burn a prospect on a two month reliever rental in an effort to reach the coin flip game with a team that currently ranks second from the bottom of the A.L in third order win percentage, then my 'let's give it a couple of years' phase of the FaLeveyine era will end instantly, because I'll know pretty much everything I need to about their odds of bringing meaningful success to the Twins.

 

Grrrrr.... I don't want them trading away a Nick Gordon for a two month rental, but I do want pitching at some point very soon. Like, now. We are playing a poor hand at the moment, but so is everyone else in the Central. No guarantee what the standings will look like a year from now!

[LaBombo]

 

Grrrrr.... I don't want them trading away a Nick Gordon for a two month rental, but I do want pitching at some point very soon. Like, now. We are playing a poor hand at the moment, but so is everyone else in the Central. No guarantee what the standings will look like a year from now!

I get it, we don't want a continuous rebuilding project, and anything can happen in the playoffs. In theory. And a guy like Neshek shouldn't cost us a guy like Gordon.

 

But the thing is, you can't trade for just Neshek. You absolutely need to also go get a 3-ish starting pitcher to be relevant in the American League in September. And that will most definitely cost you a Nick Gordon or the like.

 

If the Twins had fought their opponents so far this season to a draw in run differential, it might be easier for me to fathom the Twins converting their minor league talent 'surplus' (*shudder*) into MLB pitching with the idea that it would make them a serious contender.

 

As it stands, I've seen a Twins team that's been much more fun to watch than I expected, and yet not really much better than I expected. And what I expected was a team clearly improved from what it was last year, but just as clearly not ready to contend. That's still how they look to me, despite the W/L record.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I get it, we don't want a continuous rebuilding project, and anything can happen in the playoffs. In theory. And a guy like Neshek shouldn't cost us a guy like Gordon.

 

But the thing is, you can't trade for just Neshek. You absolutely need to also go get a 3-ish starting pitcher to be relevant in the American League in September. And that will most definitely cost you a Nick Gordon or the like.

 

If the Twins had fought their opponents so far this season to a draw in run differential, it might be easier for me to fathom the Twins converting their minor league talent 'surplus' (*shudder*) into MLB pitching with the idea that it would make them a serious contender.

 

As it stands, I've seen a Twins team that's been much more fun to watch than I expected, and yet not really much better than I expected. And what I expected was a team clearly improved from what it was last year, but just as clearly not ready to contend. That's still how they look to me, despite the W/L record.

Stop making me confront reality!

[LaBombo]

 

Stop making me confront reality!

 

Look at the bright side. As often as I'm wrong about the Twins, about baseball in general, and frankly about everything else in life as well, I'm probably reverse-jinxing the Twins right into the postseason by predicting they won't/can't make the kind of trades required to have a shot at contention.

Edited July 16, 2017 by LaBombo

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Twins win, Cleveland loses, game and a half back.

 

Of course

[spinowner]

 

Twins win, Cleveland loses, game and a half back.

Of course

If we finish first in the AL Central it won't be because we won it, it will be because the other teams lost it. Do not give up one prospect. Whether we make a trade or not, the best we can hope for is to lose the wild card game or to get swept in the ALDS.

[twinsfanstreif]

Love Neshek. But if the Twins burn a prospect on a two month reliever rental in an effort to reach the coin flip game with a team that currently ranks second from the bottom of the A.L in third order win percentage, then my 'let's give it a couple of years' phase of the FaLeveyine era will end instantly, because I'll know pretty much everything I need to about their odds of bringing meaningful success to the Twins.

 

Even though there is no way we win in the playoffs this year I think it would be good to get some playoff experience for these young guys. I feel like that would be a really good thing for the development of our guys to make a run in the next few years. To trade for Neshek would probably not cost a high end prospect either, what does everyone think? Would trading Palka for Neshek be too much, too little, or just about right?

[USAFChief]

I get it, we don't want a continuous rebuilding project, and anything can happen in the playoffs. In theory. And a guy like Neshek shouldn't cost us a guy like Gordon.

 

But the thing is, you can't trade for just Neshek. You absolutely need to also go get a 3-ish starting pitcher to be relevant in the American League in September. And that will most definitely cost you a Nick Gordon or the like.

 

If the Twins had fought their opponents so far this season to a draw in run differential, it might be easier for me to fathom the Twins converting their minor league talent 'surplus' (*shudder*) into MLB pitching with the idea that it would make them a serious contender.

 

As it stands, I've seen a Twins team that's been much more fun to watch than I expected, and yet not really much better than I expected. And what I expected was a team clearly improved from what it was last year, but just as clearly not ready to contend. That's still how they look to me, despite the W/L record.

They need that starter for next year, too. Why not get one now?

 

Run differential means zero going forward, btw. They don't reset the W/l record at the AS break to "what it should have been."

[Mike Sixel]

Even though there is no way we win in the playoffs this year I think it would be good to get some playoff experience for these young guys. I feel like that would be a really good thing for the development of our guys to make a run in the next few years. To trade for Neshek would probably not cost a high end prospect either, what does everyone think? Would trading Palka for Neshek be too much, too little, or just about right?

Given that you and Palka have the same value.......

[drjim]

 

Given that you and Palka have the same value.......

 

Palka could probably snatch a corner bat or reliever last year of the contract dump. But alas not enough for Neshek.

[Pardon My Dinger]

I'm torn right now, because I think Dozier and Ervin are ready to carry this team to a postseason birth over the next two months.

[LaBombo]

 

They need that starter for next year, too. Why not get one now?

Run differential means zero going forward, btw. They don't reset the W/l record at the AS break to "what it should have been."

 

Not only does the idea of a good trade for a starting pitcher not bother me at all, it now seems almost unavoidable to me if the Twins want to field a competitive rotation in 2018.

 

But my concern is that a trade made at the deadline will come with the kind of high cost and limited selection that you usually expect from multiple trades that happen during a short timeframe in a seller's market.

 

Trading away significantly more assets or settling for less of a pitcher than in an otherwise comparable offseason deal in order to 'get someone now' to help contend seems to me like it could be a step backward in the Twins' effort to play postseason baseball, even if that pitcher were signed through 2018.

 

As for run differential, it looks like its predictive value at any given point in a season depends on who you believe. It seems like the majority of the BProp/Fangraphs/etc stuff tends to lean towards 70 games or so as a tipping point at which run differential becomes a good predictive tool for the W/L performance of a team over the rest of the season. At 90 games it takes a lot to break free of the wins & losses trajectory that previous run differential has put a team on for the rest of the way.

 

On the other hand, if FalLeviney are smarter than run differential about the Twins' competitiveness the rest of the way and can get a '2018 or beyond' guy that they really like, before the deadline and without overpaying significantly for the last two months of his 2017, well, have at it, boys, and let's go kick some third order win percentage butt!

Edited July 17, 2017 by LaBombo

[yarnivek1972]

Would the Yankees have interest in Vargas or Park? Either would likely be an upgrade. Probably just get Jim's favorite return in trade: $$$

[ashbury]

As for run differential, it looks like its predictive value at any given point in a season depends on who you believe.

Raw run differential seems like a noisy data set to draw conclusions from.

 

Anecdotally, our manager has thrown his few good bullpen assets into the games that look winnable, and let the rest of the relievers try to establish themselves during garbage time. This has had the effect of turning 6-2 deficits into 11-4 losses, which hurts run differential but not the standings.

 

A team like ours with one or two reliable starters and two or three reliable relievers might be the outlier for analysis by differential.

 

Granted, such run differential does indeed indicate the talent level of the entire roster as it stands (minus the dregs who have already been discarded), but might not provide guidance or may even mask how much good it would do to eliminate a couple of low performers. We're still on the low part of the S-shaped curve of wins versus talent.

 

[olivia11]

I'm all for moving Dozier, Santana, Kintzler for the right deal.  But, is Dozier even tradable at this point? I'm qualifying "tradable" as where the projected value coming in would potentially exceed Dozier's value to the Twins over the next two years (and/or the chance that he has a crazy second half and can be moved over the off-season for a better package). 

 

So, serious question.  If Dozier for De Leon straight up (or pretty much straight up) wasn't enough, is there a team out there that is a 2nd baseman away from the playoffs who will give up more than De Leon?  I don't think I'd trade him for less than a top 100 prospect plus taking a flyer on at least one intriguing player (someone like a Lewin Diaz or a Jermaine Palacios in the Twins system).  Is there a team out there who would offer that right now?  

Edited July 18, 2017 by olivia11

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm all for moving Dozier, Santana, Kintzler for the right deal.  But, is Dozier even tradable at this point? I'm qualifying "tradable" as where the projected value coming in would potentially exceed Dozier's value to the Twins over the next two years (and/or the chance that he has a crazy second half and can be moved over the off-season for a better package). 

 

So, serious question.  If Dozier for De Leon straight up (or pretty much straight up) wasn't enough, is there a team out there that is a 2nd baseman away from the playoffs who will give up more than De Leon?  I don't think I'd trade him for less than a top 100 prospect plus taking a flyer on at least one intriguing player (someone like a Lewin Diaz or a Jermaine Palacios in the Twins system).  Is there a team out there who would offer that right now?  

 

The short answer, no. 

The long answer, no. Dozier had a career year last year and only the Dodgers were interested in potentially trading for him. There hasn't been any significant injuries to 2B across baseball, and Dozier's numbers have predictably fallen back to Earth. Honestly I think the Twins are stuck with him until his contract runs out. Or they decide to trade him for a lesser prospect during the last year of his contract. 

[Mr. Brooks]

The short answer, no.

 

The long answer, no. Dozier had a career year last year and only the Dodgers were interested in potentially trading for him. There hasn't been any significant injuries to 2B across baseball, and Dozier's numbers have predictably fallen back to Earth. Honestly I think the Twins are stuck with him until his contract runs out. Or they decide to trade him for a lesser prospect during the last year of his contract.

I would have done the deal straight up for DeLeon.

Said that at the time too, so that's not in retrospect of Dozier crashing back to earth.

[USAFChief]

Dozier weighs in:

 

http://www.startribune.com/should-twins-buy-or-sell-answer-is-clear-to-players/435092943/#1

 

I agree.  It's the right thing to do on it's own merits, plus there is no guarantee some better time to add will magically materialize in the future.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Dozier weighs in:

 

http://www.startribune.com/should-twins-buy-or-sell-answer-is-clear-to-players/435092943/#1

 

I agree.  It's the right thing to do on it's own merits, plus there is no guarantee some better time to add will magically materialize in the future.

 

Concur 100%. I don't know how Falvey and Levine could walk down to the clubhouse if they decide to sell off players for the future while this team is competitive. It would send a horrible message to the young players, coaching staff, and fans. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Dozier weighs in:

 

http://www.startribune.com/should-twins-buy-or-sell-answer-is-clear-to-players/435092943/#1

 

I agree.  It's the right thing to do on it's own merits, plus there is no guarantee some better time to add will magically materialize in the future.

 

Has any player publicly said "we need to rebuild", ever? Are players the best judges of how to run a team? I mean, I get it, and I sympathize......but I trust the FO a bit more than a player on this topic. Heck, I probably trust a decent number of fans more than a player on this particular topic.

 

do people really think this team has a chance to "do something special"? 

 

To me, they'd need to add:

1 SP as good as Santana or better

2 RP as good as Rogers or whomever you want to call "really, really, really good"

a DH

a SS that can hit (whether that is Polanco or Escobar producing, or getting one)

 

then, maybe, you can really believe. But, that's a tall order. And, it might not work still. How much are you willing to pay to do this, given that there are this many questions, and questions about Mejia and Berrios and Santana being good or not (and Dozier and Santana being gone in 1-2 years)?

 

That's why Falvine make so much money.....hard questions.

[USAFChief]

 

Has any player publicly said "we need to rebuild", ever? Are players the best judges of how to run a team? I mean, I get it, and I sympathize......but I trust the FO a bit more than a player on this topic. Heck, I probably trust a decent number of fans more than a player on this particular topic.

 

do people really think this team has a chance to "do something special"? 

 

To me, they'd need to add:

1 SP as good as Santana or better

2 RP as good as Rogers or whomever you want to call "really, really, really good"

a DH

a SS that can hit (whether that is Polanco or Escobar producing, or getting one)

 

then, maybe, you can really believe. But, that's a tall order. And, it might not work still. How much are you willing to pay to do this, given that there are this many questions, and questions about Mejia and Berrios and Santana being good or not (and Dozier and Santana being gone in 1-2 years)?

 

That's why Falvine make so much money.....hard questions.

I don't agree it's a hard question.  

 

In fact, it's easy.  They're in contention, for both the division and the WC.  The season is half over.  Cleveland isn't some juggernaut (or at least hasn't played like one), and there aren't several strong teams that need to be beaten for the WC.  

 

Find some help.  Now.  

[drjim]

 

I don't agree it's a hard question.  

 

In fact, it's easy.  They're in contention, for both the division and the WC.  The season is half over.  Cleveland isn't some juggernaut (or at least hasn't played like one), and there aren't several strong teams that need to be beaten for the WC.  

 

Find some help.  Now.  

 

There's a handful of guys you wouldn't want to trade for a rental, but other than that, I'm on board with this.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't agree it's a hard question.  

 

In fact, it's easy.  They're in contention, for both the division and the WC.  The season is half over.  Cleveland isn't some juggernaut (or at least hasn't played like one), and there aren't several strong teams that need to be beaten for the WC.  

 

Find some help.  Now.  

 

"find some help" meaning what? How much? At what price?

 

Sure, trade off prospects the FO doesn't believe in. NP. Start trading off legit pieces for the small chance you "do something special"? Um, that's different.

[Vanimal46]

At this point, especially with RP, the team's needing 20-25 good innings from them in the regular season. Hopefully Falvey finds a diamond in the rough and trades a non-essential prospect to acquire them.

 

Dave Cameron on Fangraphs suggests some guy named Danny Barnes from the Blue Jays as a sneaky trade piece.  

 

As far as a SP, ideally a controllable pitcher beyond this year. But, if they can trade a prospect they don't believe in for a rental, maybe that could help too. 

[spinowner]

 

  ...there aren't several strong teams that need to be beaten for the WC.   

I (and, I suspect, many others) have a different definition of strong than you do. I rate the Astros, Dodgers and Nats all very strong with Arizona, Colorado and Boston close behind. I think six out of thirty is more than several.

Edited July 18, 2017 by spinowner

[USAFChief]

 

I (and, I suspect, many others) have a different definition of strong than you do. I rate the Astros, Dodgers and Nats all very strong with Arizona, Colorado and Boston close behind. I think six out of thirty is more than several.

"WC" = Wild Card.

 

Dodgers, Nats, AZ, and Colorado are N/A.  I don't expect the Astros or Red Sox to be WC competition.

 

to be more clear...there aren't several strong AL teams that will need to be beaten to grab one of the two WC spots.