Article: Reality Check

[Blackjack]

 

. As for Santana, if you had prospects blocked in MiLB he goes, but we don't. So we almost have to keep him. Frankly it's going to take a lot of money, some luck and a genius to solve the MLB pitching. We should be very select sellers for the simple reason is it is virtually impossible to win with consistency with pitching of this level. The offense will consistently get better, with or without several of the above named players. I doubt the same can be said for the pitching.

This. Every team is looking for pitching, good pitching is not going to be easy to find. Good luck Falvine!!!!! This Cleveland series just drove home the point that they need pitching!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Blackjack]

This whole idea that the Twins are in contention and should they trade to improve or be sellers will work itself out over the next 40 days.

 

If they are out of contention, they practically have to make some trades to improve the pitching.

 

Trade from your positions of excess -- outfielders/Grossman; infielders/Escobar and/or Dozier. Get some pitchers that can step in next year. Hope for an injury to a second basemen on a contending team.  Santana you keep unless you are overwhelmed with an offer, just because you need pitching and have no one to replace him with.

[markos]

 

This whole idea that the Twins are in contention and should they trade to improve or be sellers will work itself out over the next 40 days.

 

If they are out of contention, they practically have to make some trades to improve the pitching.

 

Trade from your positions of excess -- outfielders/Grossman; infielders/Escobar and/or Dozier. Get some pitchers that can step in next year. Hope for an injury to a second basemen on a contending team.  Santana you keep unless you are overwhelmed with an offer, just because you need pitching and have no one to replace him with.

This. It will be apparent one way or the other by July 31 - perhaps even by the All Star break. They have today off, but then they have 21 games in the following 20 days leading up to the break. That is brutal for any team - especially a team with zero pitching depth. Then after the break, they have 12 games against the Astros, Yankees, Tigers and Dodgers. If they wake up on July 27th in the wildcard, then they almost have to be buyers. They will have withstood a major test and proven to be a legitimately good team.

 

The vast majority of trades happen after the All-Star break, so there is nothing wrong with laying the groundwork either way right now.

[bird]

 

I agree with Nick. I agree with Chief and Van, too. Houston and Cleveland do have better teams and it's going to be difficult to get past them let alone deep into the playoffs. But not impossible. So, I agree with Chief ... for cryin' out loud ... TRY! Give us a few more pieces to help put it together and try! 

 

 

I see both points here. My problem is one of reconciling the goals (winning now, sustained excellence in the future) with what can practically speaking be done ( a few more pieces this year, getting a huge haul for Dozier and Santana that increases the odds of a WS ring in....um...which year?)

 

Three things that mute my optimism for 2017:

 

1. This team has so many glaring holes, and so many players who aren't ready to give us peak performances.

 

2. There will likely be plenty of sellers at the deadline, and I wonder if the marketplace will be a bit tepid for sellers.

 

3. If we're buyers, I wonder if we have the assets needed to attract returns that will move the needle enough. Most of our minor league talent is just breaking camp down in extended spring training.

 

I know this flies in the face of arguments from both camps, but if I were GM, the only rudder I'd have in the water is one of opportunity as either buyer OR seller, to make outlandishly good trades, without much thought or concern for 2017. If Sonny Gray is a bargain, great. If someone wants to give me two top 25's and a top 100 prospect for Ervin, great.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I think Birdwatcher has it more or less right. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I see both points here. My problem is one of reconciling the goals (winning now, sustained excellence in the future) with what can practically speaking be done ( a few more pieces this year, getting a huge haul for Dozier and Santana that increases the odds of a WS ring in....um...which year?)

 

Three things that mute my optimism for 2017:

 

1. This team has so many glaring holes, and so many players who aren't ready to give us peak performances.

 

2. There will likely be plenty of sellers at the deadline, and I wonder if the marketplace will be a bit tepid for sellers.

 

3. If we're buyers, I wonder if we have the assets needed to attract returns that will move the needle enough. Most of our minor league talent is just breaking camp down in extended spring training.

 

I know this flies in the face of arguments from both camps, but if I were GM, the only rudder I'd have in the water is one of opportunity as either buyer OR seller, to make outlandishly good trades, without much thought or concern for 2017. If Sonny Gray is a bargain, great. If someone wants to give me two top 25's and a top 100 prospect for Ervin, great.

 

Pretty much this, which is sad.

 

So few veterans with value, they can't sell. So many holes, they can't buy. I see lots of sitting around doing nothing much that matters also.

[terrydactyls]

Similar to what Birdwatcher is saying, I think the front office should just be observers for now. Watch the kids in the minors, evaluate talent on both the major league and minor league rosters, and wait to see if anyone comes knocking around the trade deadline. If there is a great offer, take it. If not, look forward to next year. This season is not a playoff season for the Twins. Let them make use of the time to prepare for 2018 and beyond.

[jharaldson]

 

Miguel Sano is mashing at an elite level. Basically every other hitter is at least holding his own at the plate. Byron Buxton, one of the few who isn't, has finally been healthy and is changing games with his defense.

 

Let's check this out quick.  I am going to pull all of our starting position players and compare them to the league average for their positions:

 

 

I think this shows who the biggest offensive problem after Buxton is.

 

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

I'm ok with the offense for the most part. Agreed that we need more out of first base but for our park and our youth, we're ok. I like Polanco and Kepler a lot, I think both will be major assets in the long run but it's ok if they are struggling a bit right now. 

[howieramone2]

 

 

Let's check this out quick.  I am going to pull all of our starting position players and compare them to the league average for their positions:

 

 

 

I think this shows who the biggest offensive problem after Buxton is.

 

I don't believe you can tell that by looking at only one metric. Also, Brock said it some time ago, we do not have 25 players better than Mauer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't believe you can tell that by looking at only one metric. Also, Brock said it some time ago, we do not have 25 players better than Mauer.

 

Maybe that's part of the problem....not enough good players.

[Tom Froemming]

Weird time to be a Twins fan. Lots of conflicting feels. I'd like to see them win, but I wouldn't buy if that means losing something, anything, of value down the road. Aren't we kicking ourselves right now for trading away Aaron Hicks and (at least for the moment) Alex Meyer? Keep all the kids, they're more valuable to an org like this. Reload in the offseason via free agency.

 

If you're not gonna be buyers, but don't really wanna be sellers either ... what do we have here? A team that finishes in the middle, which is basically the last thing you wanna be. Last season was brutal, but at least the result put the team in the best position to improve its talent in the draft and international signing period.

[howieramone2]

I could care less that Hicks and Meyer are gone and I have no doubt the new regime will be buyers. Package several of our overrated prospects for a proven starting pitcher. Once again, free agency is very overrated and is 50/50 at best. See what we get at the deadline, take a deep breath, then look at free agency.

Edited June 19, 2017 by howieramone2

[Respy]

I agree that the Twins need to be careful with Romero and Gonsalves, and promoting them to the big leagues soon might not be the smartest idea.  So what to do in the meantime?  I am not a fan of these waiver wire pickups for SP at all.  For the starting rotation, that leaves us with Berrios and Santana.  Let's assume that Santiago will be back soon and needs to be our third starter.  Two spots are left.  Duffey is an option but he looks good in the bullpen and our bullpen needs the help too.  Kyle Gibson has obviously struggled but has potential to be an innings eater.  Mejia has struggled as well, but in today's market, he's honestly been an adequate #5 guy keeping the team in the game most starts.  Mejia is still young with some potential, as well.  

 

So, I personally think we can get by with:

 

1. Santana

2. Berrios

3. Santiago

4. Gibson

5. Mejia

 

Now for fixing the bullpen?  I think the FO needs to be more aggressive here.  Hughes when he returns will need to go to the bullpen, barring injuries to the above 5.  Duffey has been good, Kintzler has been good, Rogers has been good, Boshers looks like he might stick, Belisle is improving. Busenitz might stick.  I'm on the fence with Breslow.  Haley will be returning and I suspect they will leave him on the roster.  Melotakis probably needs to get brought up at some point (though he would give us another lefty on top of Breslow, Boshers, and Rogers).  They need to find a way to give Hildenberger a shot, by waiving one of our waiver wire pickups off the 40-man.

 

1. Kintzler

2. Duffey

3. Rogers

4. Belisle

5. Boshers

6. Hughes

7. Busenitz or Hildenberger

8. Breslow or Melotakis

 

My math here says dump Breslow.  Send Turley down.  Hildenberger would need to remain at AAA for now unless they dump Belisle, DFA Turley, or transfer Hughes to 60-day DL if he has any major setbacks.  Haley I'd personally send back to Boston, but will probably take Busenitz's spot.

[Thrylos]

 

Help them do what, exactly? Help them to an above .500 record in mid-June so that you can demand they be sellers again?

I'm honestly trying to figure out the logic here.

 

Here is the logic:

you can be a seller and improve the team for both this season and the future.

 

Example trade:  Ervin Santana to the Yankees for Jordan Montgomery & Tyler Webb.

 

The Yankees get veteran leadership and the Twins get a starter who can be as good as Santana and a lefty piece for their pen who will likely be their best lefty for a while.

 

In other works, let them be buyers, but buyers of young, controllable, MLB-ready talent, giving as a return older veterans who will regress (Santana, Dozier, Santiago, Perkins, etc; of course given interest; on the other hand getting rid of dead weight for someone like a heartbeat is also a positive) supplemented with questionable prospects (eg. Kohl Stewart).

 

I am not talking about getting A-level prospects in return...

[bluechipper]

 

You gotta give up something to get something.  Who are they going to give up to get a quality third starter and a couple of relief pitchers?  It will come at a premium cost too as we are inching up on the all-star break. 

 

No.  This team is not there yet.  Not without giving up Dozier and other pieces and that may still not be enough.

Why would you give up Dozier if you're trying to contend? You lost me there.

[gunnarthor]

 

Here is the logic:

you can be a seller and improve the team for both this season and the future.

 

Example trade:  Ervin Santana to the Yankees for Jordan Montgomery & Tyler Webb.

 

The Yankees get veteran leadership and the Twins get a starter who can be as good as Santana and a lefty piece for their pen who will likely be their best lefty for a while.

.

I think those types of trades might be pretty dangerous. Maybe Montgomery is more than he seems but he also might be another Tyler Duffey. He wasn't a highly regarded pitcher and most scouting reports had him as a backend guy or long relief. Tyler Webb is a 26 year old relief pitcher who has never reached the majors but putting good numbers in AAA. That kind of trade has pretty big risk.

[Danchat]

 

Weird time to be a Twins fan. Lots of conflicting feels. I'd like to see them win, but I wouldn't buy if that means losing something, anything, of value down the road. Aren't we kicking ourselves right now for trading away Aaron Hicks and (at least for the moment) Alex Meyer? Keep all the kids, they're more valuable to an org like this. Reload in the offseason via free agency.

 

If you're not gonna be buyers, but don't really wanna be sellers either ... what do we have here? A team that finishes in the middle, which is basically the last thing you wanna be. Last season was brutal, but at least the result put the team in the best position to improve its talent in the draft and international signing period.

What I'm afraid of is having the Twins trading away a guy like Chih-Wei Hu for Kevin Jepsen. Two years later, the Twins are looking like complete idiots for trading away a solid starting prospect who could be in the rotation right now for a reliever who did help the 2015 playoff run but then immediately capsized in 2016.

 

The time will come to become buyers and make a WS run. But that time is not now and likely not in 2017.

[twinsfanstreif]

They better MacGyver the rotation and bullpen this offseason as well because they used their top two picks on a toolsey SS with a questionable bat and an OF who will likely end up as a DH.  Their third and fourth round picks are pitchers but both high school age.  No help there.

I don't even know where to start with this......the MLB draft is not the NBA or NFL drafts, You realize that no pitcher drafted was helping us next year right? Also Lewis doesn't have a "questionable bat" and their draft strategy was very good and we came out with a lot of talent as noted by many media outlets rather than having to tank the whole rest of the draft like Atlanta and Tampa had to do just to afford Wright and McKay. We came away with 7 top 200 players according to MLB.com (and every one of those guys were top 100 players in at least 1 publication), Atlanta came away with 2 and TB came away with 4 and all of those were reaches at their spot. We will know in about 5 years if it was a good discission or not but you NEVER draft for need in the MLB draft, that's how you end up with Kyle Gibson instead of Mike Trout or Mark Appel instead of Kris Bryant

[Vanimal46]

 

I think those types of trades might be pretty dangerous. Maybe Montgomery is more than he seems but he also might be another Tyler Duffey. He wasn't a highly regarded pitcher and most scouting reports had him as a backend guy or long relief. Tyler Webb is a 26 year old relief pitcher who has never reached the majors but putting good numbers in AAA. That kind of trade has pretty big risk.

 

A trade like that also has a good chance of blowing up in the Twins' face setting them back to a 90 loss team again. 

[Vanimal46]

 

What I'm afraid of is having the Twins trading away a guy like Chih-Wei Hu for Kevin Jepsen. Two years later, the Twins are looking like complete idiots for trading away a solid starting prospect who could be in the rotation right now for a reliever who did help the 2015 playoff run but then immediately capsized in 2016.

 

The time will come to become buyers and make a WS run. But that time is not now and likely not in 2017.

 

Is Tampa Bay loaded at SP in their organization? Because Hu is now a reliever in AAA... 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is Tampa Bay loaded at SP in their organization? Because Hu is now a reliever in AAA... 

 

Pretty loaded in the system. 

[gunnarthor]

 

What I'm afraid of is having the Twins trading away a guy like Chih-Wei Hu for Kevin Jepsen. Two years later, the Twins are looking like complete idiots for trading away a solid starting prospect who could be in the rotation right now for a reliever who did help the 2015 playoff run but then immediately capsized in 2016.

 

The time will come to become buyers and make a WS run. But that time is not now and likely not in 2017.

Hu is a bullpen arm. Basically, the Twins traded future Jepsen for 2015 Jepsen. If they aren't allowed to make that trade, they basically can't trade prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hu is a bullpen arm. Basically, the Twins traded future Jepsen for 2015 Jepsen. If they aren't allowed to make that trade, they basically can't trade prospects.

 

Or they shouldn't go half in.....that was, imo, the problem. They made one tiny move, when 2-3 were needed. Going half in doesn't usually help all that much. IMO, you can't look at trades in a vacuum, but have to look at the whole context. IMO, in context, it was a bad trade.

Edited June 19, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[howieramone2]

 

Or they shouldn't go half in.....that was, imo, the problem. They made one tiny move, when 2-3 were needed. Going half in doesn't usually help all that much. IMO, you can't look at trades in a vacuum, but have to look at the whole context. IMO, in context, it was a bad trade.

Jepsen almost pitched us into the play-offs, since we came up short it was a bad trade. That's silly. Hindsight is truly a wonderful tool.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jepsen almost pitched us into the play-offs, since we came up short it was a bad trade. That's silly. Hindsight is truly a wonderful tool.

 

I said it at the time, so not hindsight. And, it was about either going in, or not going in. They sat in the middle, as they usually do here. 

 

So, no, it had NOTHING to do with the overall finishing record for me. Not at all. But, thanks for putting words in my mouth that I never once said.

[Obsvr]

lol.

 

the jadedness of this place is astounding.

 

chill out...enjoy the decent baseball while it lasts.  

[mlhouse]

I have been saying this from day one.  A team taht is -44 in run differential has no right to even think they are contenders.  The -44 is 6th worse in major league baseball.  We have holes everywhere on the rosters and we need to continue with rebuilding and get that plan complete before we think about contention and actually making roster moves with this mirage in mind.

 

So, lets get rid of the 30+ year old marginal at best players and get our prospects up to evaluate and develop them. 

 

I get with all of the losing that it was something everyone wants to believe in, but a fantasy is a poor basis to make your long term franchise building decisions on.

[Danchat]

 

Hu is a bullpen arm. Basically, the Twins traded future Jepsen for 2015 Jepsen. If they aren't allowed to make that trade, they basically can't trade prospects.

Are we sure that isn't just a temporary move to the bullpen for Hu? I'm pretty sure he'd be starting for us right now if he was still around, though I'll admit I don't know a lot about him.

[gunnarthor]

 

Are we sure that isn't just a temporary move to the bullpen for Hu? I'm pretty sure he'd be starting for us right now if he was still around, though I'll admit I don't know a lot about him.

I have no idea. The Rays let him start 3 games in AAA this year and then he made 8 relief appearances in AAA before coming up to the Rays.  When he was traded by us, the most common scouting reports on him had him as a useful future bullpen piece even though he was starting at the time.  Same song and dance we heard on Berrios - short RHP but he didn't have Berrios' stuff.