Article: 2017 Twins Player Predictions: Byron Buxton

[IndianaTwin]

I don't think he'll have a huge number of triples, maybe 8-10. He's got decent power, so teams will be likely be playing back in their no-doubles (triples) defense. The guys with lots of triples (see McGee, Willie) didn't tend to have that much power.

 

However, that could also lead to even more bloop and ground ball singles turning into doubles.

[Pius Jefferson]

.244/.301/.444/.745

 

17 HR 33 2B 9 3B. 24 SB 10 CS

 

Improvement across the board but not a superstar just yet.

[glunn]

 

I worry that he is going to get hurt & won't reach 100 games played due to injury. The way he goes all out on every play is scary to watch. My biggest concern regarding his ceiling as a player is that injuries will derail his career.

I share your concern, and wish that the Twins would add more padding to the outfield walls.

[highlander]

Start off with a little brag! I was at the game in Texas that was his major league debut. 8th row behind home plate.

 

Prediction- 40 steals, 20 triples and a Gold Glove

[spinowner]

It only takes a slight misplay or an odd bounce for him to turn a double into an ITPHR. I think I said this on another thread a few months back, but I'm going to predict 5 of those.

[bighat]

 

I'll go with .255/.310/.480 20 HR, 45 SB and a Gold Glove.

 

My main concern is that I drafted him in my fantasy baseball league, so if it all goes to hell I am very sorry to everyone.

 

I drafted him as well.  Way too high, according to CBS Sports, LOL.  I'm optimistic on Bux and can't wait to see him play this season. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think he'll have a huge number of triples, maybe 8-10. He's got decent power, so teams will be likely be playing back in their no-doubles (triples) defense. The guys with lots of triples (see McGee, Willie) didn't tend to have that much power.

 

However, that could also lead to even more bloop and ground ball singles turning into doubles.

I think you're underestimating Buxton's speed. Despite being terrible for most of last season, he hit six triples in 330 plate appearances.

[USAFChief]

It only takes a slight misplay or an odd bounce for him to turn a double into an ITPHR. I think I said this on another thread a few months back, but I'm going to predict 5 of those.

I got the under.

[Vanimal46]

Agree with Dave and Mike that Buxton will be a 4 WAR player this season. A lot of it will come from his elite defense...

 

It's going to be fun tracking his progression. I still think he's going to have some slumps which will decrease the numbers overall.

 

.725-.750 OPS, 18 HR, 14 Web Gems on Baseball Tonight.

[lsteva]

I'm going to go with .255/.310/.465 with 20 home runs, 30 doubles, 15 triples with 23 SBs. With that defense...yes please. 

[Darius]

I'm really excited to watch Buxton this year. I expect a big step forward.

 

Honestly, if not for my excitement surrounding Buxton's upside, and what he could possibly do this year, there isn't much else to care about. He's the only reason to invest any time watching this team.

[Doomtints]

 

I'm very optimistic about Buxton.  I'm hoping for an OPS north of .750, heavy on the XBHs.

 

I'd be OK with the occasional bunt for a hit...maybe 10-ish tries on the year.    Just enough to keep the corners up.  

 

Why wouldn't you have the fastest player in the league bunt? The Twins may as well trade the kid off if they don't know how to use him properly. If the situation calls for it and the other team is out of position, Buxton should bunt! Whether that happens every 10 games or every 3 games, who cares?

Edited April 2, 2017 by Doomtints

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Breakout year coming, gonna be fun to watch, Go Twins.

[IndianaTwin]

 

I think you're underestimating Buxton's speed. Despite being terrible for most of last season, he hit six triples in 330 plate appearances.

 

He's got amazing speed, and I'd love to see him get 15 or more -- they are incredibly exciting to watch. About the only thing better is watching him get inside the park homers.* 

 

I'm thinking of it more in this context -- before getting sent down the last time, 4 of his 38 hits were for triples. In September, he had 29 hits, but only two of them were triples. Said another way, it was two triples in 113 plate appearances during September, which would be 10 in 565 PAs. 

 

That's too small of a sample to be meaningful, but I wonder if it's representative of teams starting to play him deeper as he demonstrated more power. I could see that continuing and becoming even more of the case. In addition, if he starts to hit more homers, he may nudge towards more of an upper-cut swing. Higher flies don't lend themselves to triples as much as line drives. More homers also means fewer balls still in play.

 

But hey, I'd love it if this evening you'd post this email: "See, I told you so -- he's got three triples already, and it's only April 3!"

 

 

*One of my all-time favorite baseball quotes -- a Braves announcer (Joe Simpson?) once said, "Watching Greg Maddux leg out a triple has replaced the Kentucky Derby as the 'most exciting two minutes in sports.'"

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He's got amazing speed, and I'd love to see him get 15 or more -- they are incredibly exciting to watch. About the only thing better is watching him get inside the park homers.* 

 

I'm thinking of it more in this context -- before getting sent down the last time, 4 of his 38 hits were for triples. In September, he had 29 hits, but only two of them were triples. Said another way, it was two triples in 113 plate appearances during September, which would be 10 in 565 PAs. 

 

That's too small of a sample to be meaningful, but I wonder if it's representative of teams starting to play him deeper as he demonstrated more power. I could see that continuing and becoming even more of the case. In addition, if he starts to hit more homers, he may nudge towards more of an upper-cut swing. Higher flies don't lend themselves to triples as much as line drives. More homers also means fewer balls still in play.

 

But hey, I'd love it if this evening you'd post this email: "See, I told you so -- he's got three triples already, and it's only April 3!"

 

 

*One of my all-time favorite baseball quotes -- a Braves announcer (Joe Simpson?) once said, "Watching Greg Maddux leg out a triple has replaced the Kentucky Derby as the 'most exciting two minutes in sports.'"

That's fair. I think the 113 PAs with two triples is more a byproduct of luck than anything. Buxton hit nine homers during that span and that's unlikely to continue. A bunch of those homers will likely fall short of the wall, turning into opportunities for triples.

 

I don't know if power will have that much effect on Buxton's triples ability. Though he played in cavernous Comerica and batted left-handed, Granderson had plenty of power himself.

 

I guess it really boils down to how pull-happy Buxton will be this season. If he turns into Brian Dozier in that regard, he's going to see his triples total suffer as a result.*

 

*if Byron is a better hitter as a pull guy, that's fine

[jsteve96]

 

I'm sorry but I don't agree with this at all. If the opposing team gives you a bunt for a hit, you take it.

Buxton shouldn't be bunting to move runners over but he should absolutely bunt if he has a better than even chance of reaching first base safely.

It's not easy to make the perfect bunt. pitchers an catchers can move.

[spinowner]

 

*One of my all-time favorite baseball quotes -- a Braves announcer (Joe Simpson?) once said, "Watching Greg Maddux leg out a triple has replaced the Kentucky Derby as the 'most exciting two minutes in sports.'"

One time in spring training about 2004 or so Doug Mientkiewicz got on first base and Matthew LeCroy talked Gardenhire into putting him in for Mientkiewicz as a pinch runner. I guess Mientkiewicz said waiting for LeCroy to get from the dugout to first base was the longest two and a half minutes of his life.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's not easy to make the perfect bunt. pitchers an catchers can move.

Sure, that's why hitters with Buxton's speed don't bunt for a hit at a 1.000 clip.

 

But if they can do it 40% of the time, that's a good weapon to have in an arsenal.

[bird]

I don't think he'll  have more than eleven singles cause he'll prolly just run to second after he hits it.

[jsteve96]

 

Sure, that's why hitters with Buxton's speed don't bunt for a hit at a 1.000 clip.

 

But if they can do it 40% of the time, that's a good weapon to have in an arsenal.

Bux should have an OPS around if not above .800 and bunting at a 40% clip is not realistic and if it did happen thats still an .800 OPS and it gains nothing..

[Pardon My Dinger]

Breakout year coming, gonna be fun to watch, Go Twins.

I am sincerely loving the new Leghorn! Keep up the enthusiasm, young man!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bux should have an OPS around if not above .800 and bunting at a 40% clip is not realistic and if it did happen thats still an .800 OPS and it gains nothing..

If Buxton has a .400 OBP this season, I'll eat my hat. There are situations where you simply want to get on base and Buxton should be able to steal second almost on command.

 

And bunting for a hit 40% of the time is not an unreasonable number.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/10/3748738/best-bunter-all-time-career-bunt-hits-bases-empty-mlb

 

Bill James agrees. If you put a bunt down the third base line, the expected batting average is over .700.

 

http://www.billjamesonline.com/bunting_for_a_hit/

[Jham]

I may need to revise my prediction...

[d-mac]

LOL. 5 K's in 7 PA's now? I'm sure glad I didn't board the hype train after a month of freak HR/FB% splits. 

[ewen21]

LOL. 5 K's in 7 PA's now? I'm sure glad I didn't board the hype train after a month of freak HR/FB% splits.

 

Brant Alyea and Chris Colabello were all world for a little over a month. I'm concerned about Buxton.

[Halsey Hall]

Buxton has Sano by 6 times in strikeouts!

[Thrylos]

Here are my expectations from Buxton:

 

H+BB+HBP > K,   which is something he was not able to do both in 2015 and in 2016.

 

Even in the isolated SSS last September when people thought that "he turned the corner" he had 40 H+BB+HBP vs 38 K.

 

He should be sitting tomorrow, and his leash should be very short afterwords, let say until a week or two into AAA games. 

 

Rosario can play CF.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Thrylos

[TheLeviathan]

This kind of start is part of why I was worried about him hitting third.  Maybe they were doing it as a confidence boost, but it's time to hit him ninth. 

 

The kid needs to focus on making hard contact and not striking out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This kind of start is part of why I was worried about him hitting third.  Maybe they were doing it as a confidence boost, but it's time to hit him ninth. 

 

The kid needs to focus on making hard contact and not striking out.

Yep, I was all in favor of starting him at the bottom and forcing him to work his way up the lineup.

 

I hope he succeeds in the three spot but the first two games are a good example of why I didn't want him at the top of the lineup in the first place.

 

But this entire lineup is so whacky that I don't know if I'd be hitting anyone where Molitor has put them.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Yep, I was all in favor of starting him at the bottom and forcing him to work his way up the lineup.

 

I hope he succeeds in the three spot but the first two games are a good example of why I didn't want him at the top of the lineup in the first place.

 

But this entire lineup is so whacky that I don't know if I'd be hitting anyone where Molitor has put them.

 

 

That's true.  I just worry this move had very big upside and very big downside.  It's too early to say either way, but my feelings about that haven't changed.  If Buxton can come through in big spots, it might really drive the kid.

 

But continued performances like this and we may not have his defense in CF for the season.  At some point, striking out this often will necessitate a demotion.