Article: Report From The Fort: Batting Order Time!

[John Bonnes]

I’ve got good news for the batting order obsessed: it’s finally your time. With more regulars playing more games this week, it’s time to start paying attention to the Twins lineup. Molitor is clearly trying to find the right mix, and Friday he hinted that the batting order could look quite a bit different against right-handed and left-handed pitching.

 

The only thing he has committed to so far is that Byron Buxton will not hit leadoff. Sabremetric types likely concur, given Buxton’s .274 OBP in the majors so far. But I get the sense that Moltor’s decision is more about catering to Buxton’s mindset. Buxton has been at his best when he is aggressive, and the traditional leadoff role expects patience.In a recent MNSPN podcast, Roy Smalley talked a little about a time in his career when he batted cleanup. He was a team player, so he was happy to do what the team wanted, but he was never comfortable there, and he admitted it was partly because he was kind of embarrassed to be batting there. He knew what a cleanup hitter was, and he was no cleanup hitter.

 

It feels like we saw something similar last year when on-base machine Joe Mauer batted leadoff and promptly went right into the tank. It’s easy to say “Don’t change your approach” but these guys have a lifetime of expectations baked into their brains. Finding someone’s comfort zone is worth something.

 

(By the way, I just looked up Smalley’s career OPS as a cleanup hitter. It was .824, 84 points higher than his career OPS. So, as usual, I have no point.)

 

Where would Buxton hit instead? Well, today Buxton hit third in the lineup - and that’s the third time in the last four games that he has batted there. Molitor is clearly playing with the idea. Stay tuned.

 

One of the other places that Buxton has batted a couple of times lately is second, but today it was Jorge Polanco in that spot versus southpaw Chris Sale. Polanco is a switch-hitter, and he seems to be a true switch hitter, without a really dominant side.

 

I wondered if he might be a fit batting second from one side or the other. It turns out, for the last two years, he has hit for a higher average and higher OPS right-handed. However, he seems to have a better eye at the plate right-handed. For instance, last year hitting right-handed he had 27 strikeouts and 14 walks (about a 2:1 ratio). Left-handed, it was much worse: 19/3. But his batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS were all higher hitting left-handed. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ True to form, he got a hit versus the left-hander Sale, and a walk against the right-handed Joe Kelly.

 

But don’t get too accustomed to seeing Polanco there or at least not against southpaws. After the game, Molitor suggested this lineup was a little different than might be the case versus left-handed pitching in the regular season. In particular, he mentioned Robbie Grossman, who with his career .347 OBP, would be a pretty good fit in that second spot. With both Kepler and Rosario hitting left-handed, one could imagine a split platoon, where Grossman replaces one or the other.

 

And versus right-handers? We saw Kepler there the other night. Before that, over the last two weeks, the other regulars that have played there are Polanco (two weeks ago vs a right-hander), Buxton and Brian Dozier. Dozier would be a great fit there if Buxton bats third, but….

 

The smart money is riding on Brian Dozier to hit leadoff. He clearly feels most comfortable there, to the point where we hear about him lobbying for the spot. Indeed, he hit really well there last year, with a .917 OPS. He may just feel comfortable there. For those of you howling, I agree; putting their 40+ home run guy at leadoff makes no logical sense. On the other hand, there are worse hells than having one of your best hitters get most of your team’s at-bats.

 

Of course, the other player who would be great hitting second is Joe Mauer. He hasn’t played as often with Dozier and Buxton, so it’s not totally clear where Molitor sees him fitting. The last four times he has played with them, he led off twice and hit third and fifth (versus a left-hander) today.

 

Miguel Sano has pretty regularly hit out of the cleanup spot this spring, but in two game he played last week, Molitor tried batting him fifth. And with ByungHo Park likely making the roster, the Twins need to figure out how they want to space their dual slugging right-handed hitters.

 

Versus right-handers, one could break them up with Rosario or Kepler, both of whom have been anemic against left-handed pitching but effective against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, neither has done a lot in camp this spring. Or, I suppose one could look at left-handed hitting catcher Jason Castro, who has veteranness (veterenacity? veterantment?) on his side. Plus his career OPS against right-handers virtually matches that of Rosario.

 

Monday we’ll likely see a number of backups in the lineup, but Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday expect the team to be ramping up for the regular season. We’ll see if Molitor settles on the right mix. You’re welcome to take your shot below.

 

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[John Bonnes]

I'll take a stab, by the way.

 

Vs. Right-handers

 

Dozier

Polanco

Mauer

Sano

Kepler

Park

Buxton

Rosario

Castro

 

I redid this three times. I started with Buxton batting 3rd, because I think there is a real good chance that happens. But I don't think I want that kid feeling that responsibility. So I moved Mauer from 5 to 3. But I didn't want Buxton trapped between Sano and Park either. So I moved Kepler from 7 to 5. This is hard. Let's see if LHers are any easier. (I bet not.)

 

Vs Left-hander

 

Dozier

Grossman

Buxton

Sano

Mauer

Park

Kepler/Rosario

Polanco

Gimenez

 

Yeah, I'm not crazy about that either. But maybe it gets Buxton a chance to try hitting 3rd on the occasional day to gear him up for hitting that way versus right-handers, too. 

[Tecmo]

Vs Righties

 

1B Mauer

SS Polanco

3B Sano

2B Dozier

RF Kepler

DH Park

CF Buxton

C Castro

LF Rosario

 

Vs Lefties

 

DH Grossman

SS Polanco

3B Sano

2B Dozier

1B Park

RF Kepler

CF Buxton

C Gimenez

LF Rosario

 

I don't want Dozier leading off, wastes his power. Put Buxton behind the power, let him be aggressive and steal bases.

[Old Twins Cap]

Batting Grossman first is icky.

 

 

[Physics Guy]

vs RHP

Polanco

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Kepler

Park

Rosario

Castro

Buxton

 

vs LHP

Polanco

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Park

Kepler

Buxton

Rosario

Gimenez

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Batting Grossman first is icky.

last year he had the highest OBP on the team. Of any stat for lead off, that's it

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Vs Righties

 

1B Mauer

SS Polanco

3B Sano

2B Dozier

RF Kepler

DH Park

CF Buxton

C Castro

LF Rosario

 

Vs Lefties

 

DH Grossman

SS Polanco

3B Sano

2B Dozier

1B Park

RF Kepler

CF Buxton

C Gimenez

LF Rosario

 

I don't want Dozier leading off, wastes his power. Put Buxton behind the power, let him be aggressive and steal bases.

i would maybe look to have Buck or Park hit 3 and Sano 5. Otherwise I really like these lineups based on OBP

[Thrylos]

For a team that young, I would not worry about having the high OBP first, but I would worry more about protecting strikeout prone batters.  I think something like:

 

Polanco-Buxton-Mauer-Sano-Dozier-Park-Kepler-Rosario-Castro

 

might work pretty well.

[Old Twins Cap]

The writing is on the wall, of the dugout:

 

Dozier

Polanco

Buxton

Sano

Mauer

Park

Kepler

Catcher

Rosario

 

With Grossman platooning for one of Kepler/Rosario, depending on who is hitting.

 

If computers ran baseball lineups, it would be different. 

 

But, unfortunately, humans got involved and a guy with 42 HRs will lead off.

 

I like Buxton at 3.  SOs there will not kill a rally and oddly, I think this puts more pressure on the pitcher than Buxton.  Let him live a little and be integral to the lineup's success.

 

Mauer at 5 is also a good call.  High OBP and a good at bat in the middle of the lineup, if that's what Mauer still does, is what every good team wants and has.

 

Not the '29 Yankees but in another year or two, could produce a lot of runs.

[Halsey Hall]

I don't like Mauer 2nd, to many gidp, lead him off or move way down.

[Brock Beauchamp]

At the very least it's encouraging to hear we'll see different lineups to counter lefty/righty splits.

[crapforks]

 

At the very least it's encouraging to hear we'll see different lineups to counter lefty/righty splits.

Exactly what I took from this piece. Just hearing the manager of the Minnesota Twins talk about different lineups is exciting. I might explode if its actually employed regularly. Far cry from play second, bat second; catcher bats third even if its Redmond.

[bluechipper]

 

For a team that young, I would not worry about having the high OBP first, but I would worry more about protecting strikeout prone batters.  I think something like:

 

Polanco-Buxton-Mauer-Sano-Dozier-Park-Kepler-Rosario-Castro

 

might work pretty well.

Why would you have Dozier bat 5th? I want him to get as many opportunities to hit as I can.

[Danchat]

The only thing I don't want to see is Dozier leading off. I got tired of seeing countless solo HRs while he could have hit runners in. I know his OBP is good, but I'd rather see him in the 2-4 spots.

[DocBauer]

Echo enthusiasm for Molitor being willing to mix and match. I can't say for sure that Buxton is ready to hit in the 3 spot, but I find the idea intriguing to be sure. Has me thinking about Polanco first, followed by Mauer/Grossman, Buxton, then sano and Dozier in whatever order. And then Kepler, Park, Rosario and catcher. Sort of breaks up LH/RH and youth with experience thought the lineup. Would also place guys who can run well throughout the lineup.

[Bill Brown69]

First thing with Dozier is baseball is not played in a vacuum. He just flat out hits better and strikes out less with nobody on base. 

[GM64]

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

Well said   

[killertwinfan]

I would really like the Twins to establish a culture that includes a "meritocracy".  Although I agree that Sano is going to be one of your better players is lack of commitment and effort needs to be confronted directly.  As a result of the awful spring training result, he should start the season batting 7,8 or 9.  He is letting the team down. The editorial shots that come from the front office are weak and inappropriate.  WHEN, Sano hits better then move him up.  Park should bat 4 until Sano beats him out.  

 

[mazeville]

Good grief, it's time to quit babying Buxton. Bat the kid third if you think he'll do best there. 

 

And against lefties I don't even have Mauer in the lineup. 

[Platoon]

The writing is on the wall, of the dugout:

 

Dozier

Polanco

Buxton

Sano

Mauer

Park

Kepler

Catcher

Rosario

 

With Grossman platooning for one of Kepler/Rosario, depending on who is hitting.

 

If computers ran baseball lineups, it would be different. 

 

But, unfortunately, humans got involved and a guy with 42 HRs will lead off.

 

I like Buxton at 3.  SOs there will not kill a rally and oddly, I think this puts more pressure on the pitcher than Buxton.  Let him live a little and be integral to the lineup's success.

 

Mauer at 5 is also a good call.  High OBP and a good at bat in the middle of the lineup, if that's what Mauer still does, is what every good team wants and has.

 

Not the '29 Yankees but in another year or two, could produce a lot of runs.

IF we would platoon Grossman based on who was pitching, this could conceivably give RG 3-4 starts a week in the OF. And you either move Rosario to RF if RG hits for Kepler, or you put RG in RF with that grade 20 arm? On a team that still specializes in PTC? :(

[Bill Brown69]

I would like to agree but if Grossman plays OF against lefties to sit either Kepler or Rosario then you end up with EE as DH if Park moves to first.

 

I tried to make a stab at it but I think it might change every couple weeks based on performance among several. That being said, the lineup I would have against the first righty with the right to change

 

Dozier

Kepler

Buxton

Park

Mauer

Sano

Castro

Polonco

Rosario

 

Park and Sano are likely to switch early in the season when Sano starts hitting. Kepler and Rosario are interchangeable. Castro is there with the idea that Polonco and/or Rosario can get on base for Dozier's later AB's. If he hits with runners on Dozier and Buxton switch.

 

IMHO this team should score. There are always more runs scored than RBI so when you project somebody to have 100 RBI you have to be able to project someone to score at lest 100. I can see 4 guys in this lineup that if batting 1 or 2 could score 100.

Dozier has, Buxton, Polonco and also Kepler could if he can keep himself in the lineup against lefties. With this lineup I could also see Park, Sano and Dozier having 100 RBI. 

[ashbury]

Batting Buxton third is my ideal. That, of course, implies that he hits like a #3, which is part of why I say "ideal" - it's what we all hope for, at some level. But I also think that is how he's looking at himself - he swings like he wants to hit some balls out of the park. And as long as he can do that, I'm on board with putting him where he looks like he wants to be.

[drjim]

 

 

 

Tough, but fair.

[ashbury]

Batting Grossman first is Gross.

FTFY.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

First thing with Dozier is baseball is not played in a vacuum. He just flat out hits better and strikes out less with nobody on base. 

Not really. His career splits:

 

Bases Empty: .747 OPS

 

Men on Base: .772 OPS

 

He only has the relatively small discrepancy because of his ridiculous 2016 splits:

 

Bases Empty: .950

 

Men on Base: .792

 

In 2013, Dozier hit much better with men on base than he did with the bases empty. The same goes for 2015. In 2014, he was nearly identical in bases empty vs. men on base situations.

 

So, yeah, one season.

[John Bonnes]

On the one hand, it's hard to find an ideal lineup with this group.

 

On the other hand, I look at almost all of the lineups above and find myself nodding and saying "Yeah, I can see that."

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

FTFY.

No, it should read:

 

"Batting Grossman first is Gross, man."

[Bill Brown69]

But the most revealent because it was last year. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

 

Not the '29 Yankees but in another year or two, could produce a lot of runs.

 

I think you mean 1927 Yankees. The 29 Yankees weren't and but 27 is Murderers Row.