Article: Hunting For A 200 Inning Pitcher

[Cody Christie]

Pitching continues to evolve as teams try to find the right balance between starting pitching and relief pitching. During last year's playoffs, pitchers like Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman took on even more important roles. For the first time in the World Series, no starting pitcher threw more than six innings.

 

With pitching continuing to change, the hunt for a 200 inning pitcher can seem like trying to find Bigfoot.When the Twins Winter Caravan stopped in Fargo, ND last week, the focus of much of the discussion was on the Twins finding a pitcher to toss 200 innings. Current television announce Bert Blyleven was one of the guests along with right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios.

 

Blyleven is from a bygone baseball era when Tommy John surgeries weren't commonplace and starting pitchers threw well into the late innings of games. Berrios has spent his professional career in a time when pitchers seem to get hurt more often than in the past and some go through multiple major surgeries.

 

Over most of the last decade the number of pitchers throwing over 200 innings has steadily declined. From 2010 through 2016, there were 227 pitchers who reached the 200 inning mark. Two of those players, Phil Hughes and Carl Pavano, wore a Twins uniform.

The downward trend in numbers of 200 inning pitchers continued through most of the 21st century. From 2000-2006, there were 298 pitchers with seasons of 200 innings or more. This means there were 71 more pitchers reaching this mark in the first seven years of the century than in the last seven years.

 

Throughout Twins history there have been 97 occurrences of pitchers throwing at least 200 innings. Bert Blyleven accounts for six of the top 12, including a team record 325 innings in 1973. Jim Kaat and Dave Goltz are the only other Twins pitchers to surpass 300 innings in a season.

 

In recent Twins history, 200 inning pitchers have been few and far between. Phil Hughes pitched almost 210 inning through his record-breaking 2014 campaign. Before that, Carl Pavano had back-to-back seasons when he threw over 220 innings. Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn both topped 200 innings in 2009, the Metrodome's final year. And Johan Santana had a stretch of three seasons (2005-2007) when he averaged over 228 innings.

 

A young Johan Santana isn't walking into Target Field. Does this mean the Twins won't have another 200 inning pitcher?

 

Ervin Santana was the closest Twins pitcher to 200 innings last season. Across 30 starts, he threw over 180 innings. In five of his 12 big league seasons, he has thrown over 200 frames so there is a chance for him to hit that mark again in 2017.

 

Phil Hughes is coming off major surgery and no one knows what version of the pitcher will arrive in spring training. He's the most recent Twins player to accomplish the feat but 2017 doesn't seem like a year where he will be able to pitch enough to reach the 200 mark.

 

Other pitchers, perhaps Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson, could make a run at 200. Berrios has never pitched more than 166.1 innings during his professional career. A jump to 200 would be quite the leap for 2017 but it could be a reasonable expectation for the following year. Gibson threw almost 195 innings in 2015 so it's not out of the question for him to get back to that level.

 

Minnesota's pitching staff has struggled for multiple seasons, so a lot of miles have been put on bullpen arms. In the long run, a 200 inning pitcher might not be the most important thing in the world, but in any event the Twins need starters to pitch further into games to take some strain off the relievers. If a 200 inning pitcher (or two) emerges, consider it a bonus.

 

Will the Twins have a 200 inning pitcher again? Who do you think could be the next player to accomplish the feat? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Richie the Rally Goat]

Seems like Santana is most likely to do it, but he was good last year so if the every other year thing holds up...

 

I would predict Gibson second most likely.

 

I would not want Duffey, Berrios or May to surpass 180-185. No need to injure the future of the franchise.

 

I would be shocked if Hughes was a starter for an extended period in 2017

[DocBauer]

I know there are a lot of people down on him due to two simple facts:

 

1] Health didn't turn out to be the future top of the rotation starter we hoped he'd be when "stolen" with a mid 1st round pick.

 

2] Because he had an injury plagued and poor season for a 100+ loss team.

 

I'm not saying for a minute he will suddenly develop in to a stud pitcher in 2017. But if I could pick one guy to surprise in the 2017 rotation it would be Gibson.

 

Listen, coming off major surgery, he was the "Berrios" back in 2013. "Why isn't he up?" Well, he did come up, probably with a still healing and possibly tired arm. And he didn't exactly set the world on fire. But he gained experience and had a very solid "rookie" campaign in 2014. Forgetting wins and losses as a measurement, all his other numbers improved in 2015. But he has a poor 2016 along with the rest of the team in the worst season in modern franchise history and suddenly he is a bump.

 

I am not saying he will suddenly become a stud in 2017, but, were there one guy on the team for 2017 that I could say health and a fresh new season could rise up, it would be Gibson.

[Dantes929]

 

Seems like Santana is most likely to do it, but he was good last year so if the every other year thing holds up...

I would predict Gibson second most likely.

I would not want Duffey, Berrios or May to surpass 180-185. No need to injure the future of the franchise.

I would be shocked if Hughes was a starter for an extended period in 2017

I had no complaints in 2015 except for not being on the field the first half.    His last 7 starts were in the middle of a pennant chase and they were all quality and not just quality minimum.   7 innings and 2 runs was his worst.   Very ace like.    

[Taildragger8791]

If Gibson surpasses 200 innings that means he figured out how to stop big innings and giving up base runners in bunches. That would suggest a big bounce back season for him and be a much-needed boost for the team. I really don't expect it though, unless he has some upcoming change to his repertoire or approach that he hasn't talked about. He just doesn't get strike outs or induce playable ground balls reliably enough. Maybe with a stud defense to back him up, but...

[Physics Guy]

After thinking about the Castro signing, I think he will help Gibson as much or more than anybody else on the staff.  Gibson seems to have a habit of nibbling on the edges of the zone and his walk rate increased last year.  Maybe Castro can get that one extra strike to help get Gibson our of those big innings and help him be more like the 2015 Gibson.  If that is the case, I can see 200 innings from him. 

[Thrylos]

One needs to put things into perspective:  Only 15 pitchers topped 200 IP in the majors in 2016.  Different game with the specialized pens these days.

 

I'd rather see the Twins win, than any pitcher hit 200 IP.   180 is the new 200 it seems.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be happy with a few guys throwing 180.  Personally though, I think Trevor May is the best bet for that.  He was a workhorse in the minors. I don't see it happening this season, but 160+ is fairly reasonable I think, and I think he can get up to that magic number by next season. 

 

As for Gibson, I suspect his problem is the pitches he throws in 2 strike counts. Hopefully a new regime will change that a bit. He was an 8+ K/9 guy in the minors, and when he was hot, he was doing similar work in the majors. Yeah, I get the lack of patience, but that margin for error is much lower in MLB.  Gibson has shown he can do it for some period of time. Hopefully, things click for him.  In my opinion, Gibson will be the difference between a decent rotation this season and a crappy one.

[dbminn]

Santana is the most likely to throw 200. Gibson has a chance if the nagging injuries have healed. Santiago has reached 180 each of the last two years (is that a good thing?).

 

I'm more concerned with quality starts. The Twins had 59 in 2016 while league average was 76. To get to league average, the young pitchers are going to have to step up and Gibson has to return to form. May is going to be skipped sometimes and Hughes may not get many starts.

[mikelink45]

It is all about approach to pitching.  We used to expect 200 innings, it was not an elusive goal, but we began a dramatic shift and what confuses my old mine is that we seem to have more arm injuries in the five man rotation, less inning years than I remember from the 4 man, complete game period.  Here are the yearly total innings pitched leaders - note Mr. Blyleven with 271 in 1986 after 293 innings in 1985, and Jack Morris with 293 in 1983.  And from 1980 to the beginning of baseball the leaders were routinely getting 300+ of close to it. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/IP_leagues.shtml

 

This Grantland article asks what is happening and starts with: Tommy John surgeries are ripping through baseball at a faster pace than ever before. Twenty-five percent of active MLB pitchers have had the procedure, which reconstructs a pitcher’s torn ulnar collateral ligament, as have 15 percent of current minor league pitchers. Last season was particularly distressing: More pitchers had the surgery in 2014 than in the entirety of the 1990s. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/tommy-john-epidemic-elbow-surgery-glenn-fleisig-yu-darvish/

 

I must emphasize that this is Tommy John related and now we are seeing a new series of injuries which have not had an operation developed to get them back on the mound. 

 

Jeff Passan wrote the book ARM and was on NPR in an interview that I found interesting: http://www.npr.org/2016/03/31/472541597/injuries-increase-as-pitchers-throw-harder-faster-and-younger but none of these answer the question - why didn't we have this many injuries prior to 1980 when pitchers threw more?  Of course there were some, but it does not register for me that the numbers match what we have today.  I tried to find stats, but could not.  Anyway, I find this whole discussion to be interesting and puzzling.

 

[d-mac]

 

I know there are a lot of people down on him due to two simple facts:

1] Health didn't turn out to be the future top of the rotation starter we hoped he'd be when "stolen" with a mid 1st round pick.

2] Because he had an injury plagued and poor season for a 100+ loss team.

I'm not saying for a minute he will suddenly develop in to a stud pitcher in 2017. But if I could pick one guy to surprise in the 2017 rotation it would be Gibson.

Listen, coming off major surgery, he was the "Berrios" back in 2013. "Why isn't he up?" Well, he did come up, probably with a still healing and possibly tired arm. And he didn't exactly set the world on fire. But he gained experience and had a very solid "rookie" campaign in 2014. Forgetting wins and losses as a measurement, all his other numbers improved in 2015. But he has a poor 2016 along with the rest of the team in the worst season in modern franchise history and suddenly he is a bump.

I am not saying he will suddenly become a stud in 2017, but, were there one guy on the team for 2017 that I could say health and a fresh new season could rise up, it would be Gibson.

 

Plus a catcher that could you know, not cost him strikes behind the plate. 

[jimmer]

Santana is the only one who has a shot this year and I wouldn't bet on that.  I'd never bet on Gibson.

[old nurse]

 

It is all about approach to pitching.  We used to expect 200 innings, it was not an elusive goal, but we began a dramatic shift and what confuses my old mine is that we seem to have more arm injuries in the five man rotation, less inning years than I remember from the 4 man, complete game period.  Here are the yearly total innings pitched leaders - note Mr. Blyleven with 271 in 1986 after 293 innings in 1985, and Jack Morris with 293 in 1983.  And from 1980 to the beginning of baseball the leaders were routinely getting 300+ of close to it. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/IP_leagues.shtml

 

This Grantland article asks what is happening and starts with: Tommy John surgeries are ripping through baseball at a faster pace than ever before. Twenty-five percent of active MLB pitchers have had the procedure, which reconstructs a pitcher’s torn ulnar collateral ligament, as have 15 percent of current minor league pitchers. Last season was particularly distressing: More pitchers had the surgery in 2014 than in the entirety of the 1990s. http://grantland.com/the-triangle/tommy-john-epidemic-elbow-surgery-glenn-fleisig-yu-darvish/

 

I must emphasize that this is Tommy John related and now we are seeing a new series of injuries which have not had an operation developed to get them back on the mound. 

 

Jeff Passan wrote the book ARM and was on NPR in an interview that I found interesting: http://www.npr.org/2016/03/31/472541597/injuries-increase-as-pitchers-throw-harder-faster-and-younger but none of these answer the question - why didn't we have this many injuries prior to 1980 when pitchers threw more?  Of course there were some, but it does not register for me that the numbers match what we have today.  I tried to find stats, but could not.  Anyway, I find this whole discussion to be interesting and puzzling.

In the 80's the average fastball was in the 88-89 mph range  now it is around 92. More torque, no evolution to compensate, not intelligently designed enough to handle the stress over time.

 

[Rosterman]

Hopefully Gibson betters himself than being a five inning pitcher. Doubt Berrios, May or Duffy will break the mark. Ervin needs to build a workhorse reputation. He's playing for one more BIG contract, multi-year, down-the-line. But, yet...the day of seeing such a feat by multiple Twins pitchers in uniform may be fleeting forever.

 

[Eris]

On Tommy John. Good High school pitchers are throwing for 9 months of the year. Are on multiple teams and often are focused only on baseball. Years ago, good athletes often played 3 different sports. This overuse at a young age, along with the velocity race is likely the drivers of TJ. My son played with kids who had ligament damage from pitching at the age of 12. It would be interesting to see if the incidents of TJ is lower for ML pitchers who did not pitch in high school and earlier.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I feel like the 200 inning standard is a relic of another time.  Today's hitters go deeper into counts - driving up pitch counts.  While we hear the stories of old timers pitching 150 pitches a game, there were also plenty of games with players pitching no more than 100 pitches over 9 innings because hitters were less likely to go deep into counts.

 

If durability is the measure we are looking at - shouldn't we also consider some kind of efficiency measure?  Wouldn't a combination of number of starts, innings per start and average pitches per inning be a more nuanced measure of pitcher durability and effectiveness?

 

A simple measure on number of innings pitched makes little sense.

[goulik]

 

I feel like the 200 inning standard is a relic of another time.  Today's hitters go deeper into counts - driving up pitch counts.  While we hear the stories of old timers pitching 150 pitches a game, there were also plenty of games with players pitching no more than 100 pitches over 9 innings because hitters were less likely to go deep into counts.

 

If durability is the measure we are looking at - shouldn't we also consider some kind of efficiency measure?  Wouldn't a combination of number of starts, innings per start and average pitches per inning be a more nuanced measure of pitcher durability and effectiveness?

 

A simple measure on number of innings pitched makes little sense.

Why not just simply track number of pitches? That with K vs B rate, and Balls in Play give a much better picture of a pitcher than innings. I have wondered why pitchers were measured by innings instead of pitches for many years going back to the 80s and 90s. It's like tracking Wins which is punishing good pitchers on bad teams. When the guy throws a 25 pitch inning because of 2 errors behind him, its Not his fault he didn't get into the 8th inning...

[Mike Sixel]

I also feel this is not necessarily good. We now know with certainty that there is a huge penalty for 3rd and 4th time thru the order. I'm not sure how often you want good, but not ELITE, pitchers doing that.