Article: Cardinals "Very Much In" on Brian Dozier

[nytwinsfan]

 

Maybe the point is that no matter how good Dozier is, they won't win w/o some pitching.....that those arguing the Twins should keep Dozier are ignoring that they can't win with this pitching staff. Maybe. Not sure. That's how I read it.

Ok, I think that's a charitable reading, but I'll play along because I agree with that point. We won't win with this pitching.

[Twinfan & Dad]

So what? You really think Dozier has a tendency to play good when it doesn't matter and play bad when it does? If not, then what is the point of this? If so, aren't you drawing a correlation based on a small sample size correlation?

 

Sorry for the confusion. Point I was trying to make was quite simply we don't win when he is playing subpar and win even less when he is tearing it up. Our needs are pitching and more pitching. Young pitchers are hit and miss so the more you accumulate the better the odds of 1 of them being a stud. Dozier is our underpaid asset to acquire this young pitching talent. He will not be cheap next time the contract is signed and we still don't know how he performs in the heat of a pennant race. With the good comes the bad. He cannot carry this team and is streaky with a high strikeout ratio. On a good team he fits great on a bad team he doesn't move the needle. We need pitching.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Sorry for the confusion. Point I was trying to make was quite simply we don't win when he is playing subpar and win even less when he is tearing it up. Our needs are pitching and more pitching. Young pitchers are hit and miss so the more you accumulate the better the odds of 1 of them being a stud. Dozier is our underpaid asset to acquire this young pitching talent. He will not be cheap next time the contract is signed and we still don't know how he performs in the heat of a pennant race. With the good comes the bad. He cannot carry this team and is streaky with a high strikeout ratio. On a good team he fits great on a bad team he doesn't move the needle. We need pitching.

 

Ok, fair enough. I'm just primed by all these people arguing "Mauer isn't clutch" to think the worst of arguments like that. I definitely agree with your point, although I think the larger point is that no hitter - not even Mike Trout or Babe Ruth -- could carry a team with pitching as bad as the Twins' pitching in 2016. It really isn't a knock on Dozier in the slightest that he can't make the Twins a winning team. I do think there is good reason to expect the Twins pitching to be better next year, including (1) regression to the mean, and (2) hopefully a full year of May and Berrios.  But it still will probably be one of the worst 5 pitching staffs, so the point still holds.

Edited December 28, 2016 by nytwinsfan

[DaveW]

Even espn just ran an item on the bottom line backing up my report (for weeks) that a team like the Cards were never in the running.

 

Doogie, what happened?

[Vanimal46]

Just saw the same thing Dave did. Doogie had to have been fed a false report and ran with it.

[TheLeviathan]

103 losses and people are worried about changing the make-up of the team.....

 

http://www.bluehogreport.com/wp-content/uploads/facepalm.jpg?x17359

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Quite possible. Too bad. 

 

To those who are just looking for "prospects" not MLB-ready or near MLB-ready starting pitchers, here's my take; Yes, it's possible the Twins don't make the playoffs next year. But anything CAN happen. Our youngsters start to play better. Our pitching improves with better catching and leadership. Our veterans can rebound. 

 

I believe we can win the division in 2017; Chicago and Detroit appear to be rebuilding; the Royals struggled somewhat – not as much as the Twins – in 2016. Really the best team is the Indians – and they will likely be very good again. But their pitching and/or hitting could falter. They could be plagued by injuries. You never know.

 

All I'm saying is, don't write-off 2017 just because of a bad year. If the Twins had done that in 1991, after looking bad in 1990, they would not have won their second World Series title.

 

If we're going to trade Dozier - and I'm not against it - we have to get real good value back. He is a valuable player.

 

That's why we need two MLB-ready, or near-ready starting pitchers, plus one or two lower prospects, to play in 2017 for Dozier. And I'm perfectly OK with keeping him IF WE DON'T GET A DECENT OFFER. 

 

You've got to have some faith that this team can rebound. We have got some really good players. Give them a chance in 2017. Don't write the season off.

[tobi0040]

Agree with Mike. The issue with Dozier is he doesn't have a good slider.

[Seth Stohs]

 

No offense, but has Doogie ever been correct in his life?  

He's as good as it goes. No one has more sources in the Twin Cities. There's zero reason to believe he isn't correct on this one. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Even espn just ran an item on the bottom line backing up my report (for weeks) that a team like the Cards were never in the running.

Doogie, what happened?

 

The Cards can play the game just like all the others. 

 

The Twins leak information that the Cards are interested.

 

The Twins must do this to let the Dodgers to know that they are not the only team in the league. 

 

In response: 

 

The Cards leak information that they are not.

 

The Cards must do this because they must support their current roster in case they don't land Dozier. 

 

Next:

 

The Cards will probably get information out about how they really like the talent on their existing roster. Maybe go as far as singling out and pumping up Wong publicly to let him know that they believe in him and to let the Twins know publicly that he would be a great addition in any trade package. 

 

This stuff goes on every year and it's leaked on purpose. Just part of the process... Nobody on the outside is right or wrong yet. 

[Riverbrian]

 

103 losses and people are worried about changing the make-up of the team.....

 

http://www.bluehogreport.com/wp-content/uploads/facepalm.jpg?x17359

 

It's like Butch Cassidy said

 

"It's the fall that'll kill ya" 

[DaveW]

He's as good as it goes. No one has more sources in the Twin Cities. There's zero reason to believe he isn't correct on this one.

Except for the fact that even espn is saying there is nothing cooking. Also the teams just don't line up that well.

 

I don't doubt he was told this by his Twins sources, but as my source (who has been right every step of the way other than original timing) has said: Dodgers are and remain the only real "contender"

 

I'm sure the Cards called up to see what it would take at some point, just both sides new there was little chance.

Edited December 28, 2016 by DaveW

[DaveW]

Also Doogie is a great media person and has gotten some very nice scoops in the past. He's one of the better ones in TC market IMO

[drivlikejehu]

 

I don't doubt he was told this by his Twins sources, but as my source (who has been right every step of the way other than original timing) 

 

That's a stretch. The original claim was a done deal within 24 hours. Now a trade may not happen at all. Completely different situation than what was claimed. 

 

All we have is rumors, from various sources. Potential transactions often see the same pattern of conflicting reports and the like . . . sometimes the actual result wasn't predicted by any of them. We can only go off things that actually happen.

[DJSim22]

 

I do agree, he seems like a great guy, and maybe I am being unfair here....

 

If getting into drunken rants and challenging all on the Rivals Gopher football forum to a fight is a great guy.  I find him to be a condescending wannabe who kissed up to the right people.  I don't think you are being unfair at all. 

[Oxtung]

Sorry for the confusion. Point I was trying to make was quite simply we don't win when he is playing subpar and win even less when he is tearing it up. Our needs are pitching and more pitching. Young pitchers are hit and miss so the more you accumulate the better the odds of 1 of them being a stud. Dozier is our underpaid asset to acquire this young pitching talent. He will not be cheap next time the contract is signed and we still don't know how he performs in the heat of a pennant race. With the good comes the bad. He cannot carry this team and is streaky with a high strikeout ratio. On a good team he fits great on a bad team he doesn't move the needle. We need pitching.

First let me say that I agree with this post that Dozier can't carry this team. But that goes true for any return the Twins get back in return for him too. Even if De Leon turns into Johan Santana jr this team is still a 90+ loss team unless other big changes happen elsewhere. That could be improvements from some guys, it could be more trades or even FAs coming in but this one trade, no matter how important it seems in this moment, isn't going to make or break the Minnesota Twins future regardless of what happens with Dozier.

 

I think it's easy to lose the bigger picture and to believe this trade is the all important one when in fact we are only looking at 3 more wins per year in the future even if De Leon pans out. We still need 30 more from somewhere else.

 

Twinsfan&Dad this reply isn't really directed at you it just seemed to piggy back off your thoughts.

[HitInAPinch]

 

103 losses and people are worried about changing the make-up of the team.....

 

http://www.bluehogreport.com/wp-content/uploads/facepalm.jpg?x17359

 

From Cover Girl to Estée Lauder?  Not following.  Catcher's masks for Everyone!!

[Otto von Ballpark]

First let me say that I agree with this post that Dozier can't carry this team. But that goes true for any return the Twins get back in return for him too. Even if De Leon turns into Johan Santana jr this team is still a 90+ loss team unless other big changes happen elsewhere.

But they will have 6 years to make those other big changes with DeLeon and company, versus only 2 years with Dozier.

Edited December 28, 2016 by spycake

[Doomtints]

 

First let me say that I agree with this post that Dozier can't carry this team. But that goes true for any return the Twins get back in return for him too. Even if De Leon turns into Johan Santana jr this team is still a 90+ loss team unless other big changes happen elsewhere.

 

That's right.  But the Twins have a much bigger hole at SP than they do at 2B.  After Dozier goes, Polanco slides into his spot.  Dozier is the only person the team has that can help fix their pitching problem. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Except for the fact that even espn is saying there is nothing cooking. Also the teams just don't line up that well.

 

I don't doubt he was told this by his Twins sources, but as my source (who has been right every step of the way other than original timing) has said: Dodgers are and remain the only real "contender"

 

I'm sure the Cards called up to see what it would take at some point, just both sides new there was little chance.

Dave, you have to seriously doubt your source's report that DeLeon plus Alvarez are on the table, right? Not only have the Twins sat on the offer nearly a month now, but they are apparently leaking suspect reports of interest from other teams. Even in the freewheeling world of MLB GMs, actions have consequences, and the Twins would be seriously jeopardizing that aggressive Dodgers offer if this is how they responded.

 

The sticking point has to be the second piece, not the third (at least, not the third behind DeLeon and Alvarez).

[DaveW]

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

[twins_89]

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

 

It seems like it shouldn't be that hard to agree to the third piece in a deal. There has to be at least one realistic prospect that that the Twins rate a lot higher than the Dodgers.

[doscinco]

Heyman;

 

"— It’s no surprise that some suggest the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their top prospects in talks for veteran players, as LA values their top minor leaguers high. They made the right calls to keep NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager and lefty phenom Julio Urias. But they are willing to part with righty Jose De Leon for Dozier. They are not willing to include top first base prospect Cody Bellinger or top young pitchers Walker Buehler or Yadier Alvarez along with De Leon."

[Taildragger8791]

 

So what? You really think Dozier has a tendency to play good when it doesn't matter and play bad when it does? If not, then what is the point of this? If so, aren't you drawing a correlation based on a small sample size correlation?

 

The point is that Dozier's performance is relatively negligible in the win/loss result for this team as-constructed because they are so uncompetitive. It's a pointless luxury to have a slugging second baseman when you're fielding a league-worst pitching staff paired with poor defense and a streaky lineup.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table. You can disagree or not believe me if you want, but that's what has been offered and continues to be offered. The third piece is where the huge gape remains

 

What I don't seem to understand; why would the Twins need a 3rd piece if those two are on the table? For me, if those two are being offered, I take it and run.

[Doomtints]

Alvarez looks to me like a Tommy John in the making.  With his 100 MPH fastball and second-pitch being a slider, not to mention his delivery that has been described as "mildly violent" -- I would either pass or groom him to be a closer and start limiting his innings immediately. 

 

Plus, he is 3 years out at a minimum.

 

If the Twins are balking at anything regarding Alvarez, they're simply being silly.  If he's off the table, move on.  If he's on the table, grab him and change his path to the majors before his arm falls off.  He has still yet to play A+ and has yet to have a big workload. He could be the best closer in the league by the time he debuts or his arm could shred after a very short career as a starter. 

Edited December 28, 2016 by Doomtints

[jorgenswest]

If DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table and the Twins management doesn't take the deal we need Terry Ryan back.

[Taildragger8791]

 

I don't think anyone believes we currently are chock full of 3/4 types but the Twins do have Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios, Mejia, rule 5 guy all around for several more seasons. In addition they also have Jay, Gonsalves, Stewart and Jorge 1-2 years out. After that they have guys like Romero and Thorpe 2-3 years out. That's 14 starting pitchers that will need innings to show what they are capable of in the next few years. That also doesn't include any veterans they might want to bring in for leadership or on one year deals to recoup value with an eye towards flipping.

Some of those guys will not pan out but the Twins won't know who until they invest the innings to find out. I think bringing back mid rotation guys just further muddies the water; it's just another mediocre pitcher to determine if they can sink or swim in MLB.

 

Good teams don't avoid adding talent because they're worried about blocking a bunch of mediocre or unproven players. They stockpile as much as they can and sort it out later. Most of that sorting happens naturally because the flameout rate is so high on young players.

 

It might sound promising to rattle off a long list of names but that list gets thin in a hurry when you really evaluate it. Santana is in his mid-30's and is the best pitcher in that group, he's not going to be here for much longer. Gibson could pitch himself out of a job this year. Hughes is a lottery ticket to ever start effectively again. May and Duffey are running out of time to establish themselves in the rotation and may be permanently bound for the bullpen. Berrios has a long ways to go and his talent will get him a lot of time to work through his struggles, but you can't count on his future right now. Mejia isn't a game changer. That leaves a lot of potential openings to rotate prospects through in a year or two. Furthermore, those prospects have ceilings as 4's and borderline 3's in some cases, with a few that could fall back to being solid relievers, but the failure rate is so high that I'm not worried about blocking someone if it means acquiring a solid #3 or better pitcher. The truly good players will always separate themselves and force their way onto the roster.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Taildragger8791

[doscinco]

What I don't seem to understand; why would the Twins need a 3rd piece if those two are on the table? For me, if those two are being offered, I take it and run.

I think most people would. The Twins either don't like JDL or Alvarez as much as the industry or Dave source might be right about everything else except Alvarez being included.

[Mike Sixel]

If they are only getting 1 of the top 5 prospects from the Dodgers, I understand why it hasn't happened yet....