To Be Or Not To Be: ABW

GMinTraining · September 9, 2016

I have watched Adam Brett Walker II through 4 full seasons. In that time, I have watched Twins daily list him 4 consecutive years within their Top 6 "Hitters of the Year" (not honorable mention). In that time, Walker has drawn consistent praise and consistent criticism. Rightfully so. That being said, we can draw that Walker is as consistent as they come. I enjoyed reading the Twins daily reviews of their Hitters of the Year (2013 thru 2016):

2013

#6 – Adam Walker – Cedar Rapids Kernels (141-508) - .278/.319/.526 (.844), with 31 doubles, seven triples, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 10 SB)

Walker was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University. Like yesterday’s relief pitcher of the year, Tyler Jones, Walker is a product of Milwaukee. After signing with the Twins, he hit 14 homers for Elizabethton last year. This year, he led the Midwest League with 27 home runs and 109 RBI. He added a couple of huge home runs in the playoffs as well. Walker has as much power as anyone in the Twins farm system, but he is also a terrific athlete. He did a nice job in right field. He is also a very good base stealer. He was 10-10 this year and has not been caught on a stolen base attempt since high school. Walker strikes out, but the bigger concern is that he just doesn’t take many walks and control the zone. Without some adjustments, he will struggle as he advances. Fortunately, he is still just 21 years old and has plenty of time to keep developing.

2014

#6 – Adam Walker – Ft. Myers Miracle (124-505 - .246/.307/.436 (.743), with 19 doubles, 1 triple, 24 HR, 94 RBI)

At 6-4 and 225 pounds, Walker is an intimidating presence in the batter’s box. Fortunately for the Twins, he’s fit the part of powerful, athletic run producer ever since he joined the Twins organization after being selected as the team’s third round draft pick in 2012. In short-season Elizabethton, Walker hit 14 homers and drove in 45 runs in 58 games. Last year in Cedar Rapids, he hit 31 doubles, seven triples and 27 home runs while driving in 109 runs, which was second only to Dalton Hicks in all of minor league baseball. He moved up to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2014 and struggled early. He rarely was able to get his batting average over .250, but he walked eight percent of the time, an improvement. He still has strike zone and contact issues, but there is still so much potential in this 22-year-old.

2015

#2 – Adam Brett Walker – Chattanooga Lookouts (100-356 - .239/.309/.498 (.807), with 31 doubles, 3 triples, 31 HR, 106 RBI)

Walker was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2012. He put together a very interesting 2015 season. His batting average dipped a little, and yet his walk rate improved. He also led minor league baseball in strikeouts with 195. However, it’s hard to ignore the productivity, and the consistent productivity. He led his league in home runs for the third straight season. He drove in over 100 runs for the second time in three seasons. He continued to surprise people with some sneaky stolen bases. He moved from right field to left field. The strikeouts, of course, remain a huge concern in the short and long term. However, few minor leaguers have as much raw power as Walker. His power is on par with Miguel Sano’s. Still just 23-years-old, the hard-working Walker will be added to the Twins 40-man roster following the season.

2016

#5 – Adam Brett Walker – Rochester Red Wings (116-478 - .243/.305/.479 (.784), with 22 doubles, 5 triples, 27 HR, 75 RBI)

For the first time since the Twins made him their 3rd round pick in the 2012 draft, Walker did not lead his league in home runs or RBsI. In 2016 in AAA, he was second with 27 homers and his 75 RBIs was third in the International League. For the fourth straight year, he hit over 25 homers. During the first three months of the season, Walker struck out 42% of his plate appearances. Then, after July 1, he struck out in 34% of his plate appearances. It is still high, but that’s the kind of improvement that should encourage Walker and the Twins front office. Let’s say he can cut that number down to 28-30% and he has a chance to be a solid major leaguer. And there is no questioning the power potential.

I can't argue that Walker has flaws, but I can argue that those flaws haven't hurt his previous teams from winning during those 4 seasons. For a man who averages in 4 minor league seasons:

26 doubles per season and

4 triples per season and

28 home runs per season

58 extra base hits per season and

96 rbi per season

167 strikeouts per season

In the eyes of most, Walker's cons still outweigh his pros. He has proven to be a quality outfielder this season and has stolen 43 bases in 56 attempts as a professional. Despite his yearly numbers, most would rather go with predictions based on "norms". What does an improvement to his current (above) averages make him? A 4th outfielder? An MLB regular? An MLB All Star?

The fact is, Walker is the only prospect to have not been called up, (ever), who appeared as a Twins Daily "Hitter of the Year" candidate (2+ times). Walker has been listed 4 times (TD Hitter of the Year) and yet remains one of few to have never been promoted during a season. To Be (a Twin) or Not To Be - That is the Question?

If the answer is no - then the strikeout average is the only numbers we see, because the other averages get most players at least 1 promotion in their minor league career.

Craig Arko · September 9, 2016

I give you both credit for great tenacity.

insane17 · September 9, 2016

I give you both credit for great tenacity.

Regarding tenacity, please read the following linked article.

ABW can follow this guys example and ACTUALLY we all can follow this guys example:

http://www.startribune.com/mike-sherels-is-the-strong-survivor-friends-and-gophers-teammates-knew-he-d-become/392804731/

The Wise One · September 9, 2016

I have watched Adam Brett Walker II through 4 full seasons. In that time, I have watched Twins daily list him 4 consecutive years within their Top 6 "Hitters of the Year" (not honorable mention). In that time, Walker has drawn consistent praise and consistent criticism. Rightfully so. That being said, we can draw that Walker is as consistent as they come. I enjoyed reading the Twins daily reviews of their Hitters of the Year (2013 thru 2016):

2013
#6 – Adam Walker – Cedar Rapids Kernels (141-508) - .278/.319/.526 (.844), with 31 doubles, seven triples, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 10 SB)
Walker was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University. Like yesterday’s relief pitcher of the year, Tyler Jones, Walker is a product of Milwaukee. After signing with the Twins, he hit 14 homers for Elizabethton last year. This year, he led the Midwest League with 27 home runs and 109 RBI. He added a couple of huge home runs in the playoffs as well. Walker has as much power as anyone in the Twins farm system, but he is also a terrific athlete. He did a nice job in right field. He is also a very good base stealer. He was 10-10 this year and has not been caught on a stolen base attempt since high school. Walker strikes out, but the bigger concern is that he just doesn’t take many walks and control the zone. Without some adjustments, he will struggle as he advances. Fortunately, he is still just 21 years old and has plenty of time to keep developing.

2014
#6 – Adam Walker – Ft. Myers Miracle (124-505 - .246/.307/.436 (.743), with 19 doubles, 1 triple, 24 HR, 94 RBI)
At 6-4 and 225 pounds, Walker is an intimidating presence in the batter’s box. Fortunately for the Twins, he’s fit the part of powerful, athletic run producer ever since he joined the Twins organization after being selected as the team’s third round draft pick in 2012. In short-season Elizabethton, Walker hit 14 homers and drove in 45 runs in 58 games. Last year in Cedar Rapids, he hit 31 doubles, seven triples and 27 home runs while driving in 109 runs, which was second only to Dalton Hicks in all of minor league baseball. He moved up to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2014 and struggled early. He rarely was able to get his batting average over .250, but he walked eight percent of the time, an improvement. He still has strike zone and contact issues, but there is still so much potential in this 22-year-old.

2015
#2 – Adam Brett Walker – Chattanooga Lookouts (100-356 - .239/.309/.498 (.807), with 31 doubles, 3 triples, 31 HR, 106 RBI)
Walker was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2012. He put together a very interesting 2015 season. His batting average dipped a little, and yet his walk rate improved. He also led minor league baseball in strikeouts with 195. However, it’s hard to ignore the productivity, and the consistent productivity. He led his league in home runs for the third straight season. He drove in over 100 runs for the second time in three seasons. He continued to surprise people with some sneaky stolen bases. He moved from right field to left field. The strikeouts, of course, remain a huge concern in the short and long term. However, few minor leaguers have as much raw power as Walker. His power is on par with Miguel Sano’s. Still just 23-years-old, the hard-working Walker will be added to the Twins 40-man roster following the season.

2016
#5 – Adam Brett Walker – Rochester Red Wings (116-478 - .243/.305/.479 (.784), with 22 doubles, 5 triples, 27 HR, 75 RBI)
For the first time since the Twins made him their 3rd round pick in the 2012 draft, Walker did not lead his league in home runs or RBsI. In 2016 in AAA, he was second with 27 homers and his 75 RBIs was third in the International League. For the fourth straight year, he hit over 25 homers. During the first three months of the season, Walker struck out 42% of his plate appearances. Then, after July 1, he struck out in 34% of his plate appearances. It is still high, but that’s the kind of improvement that should encourage Walker and the Twins front office. Let’s say he can cut that number down to 28-30% and he has a chance to be a solid major leaguer. And there is no questioning the power potential.

I can't argue that Walker has flaws, but I can argue that those flaws haven't hurt his previous teams from winning during those 4 seasons. For a man who averages in 4 minor league seasons:
26 doubles per season and
4 triples per season and
28 home runs per season
58 extra base hits per season and
96 rbi per season
167 strikeouts per season

In the eyes of most, Walker's cons still outweigh his pros. He has proven to be a quality outfielder this season and has stolen 43 bases in 56 attempts as a professional. Despite his yearly numbers, most would rather go with predictions based on "norms". What does an improvement to his current (above) averages make him? A 4th outfielder? An MLB regular? An MLB All Star?

The fact is, Walker is the only prospect to have not been called up, (ever), who appeared as a Twins Daily "Hitter of the Year" candidate (2+ times). Walker has been listed 4 times (TD Hitter of the Year) and yet remains one of few to have never been promoted during a season. To Be (a Twin) or Not To Be - That is the Question?

If the answer is no - then the strikeout average is the only numbers we see, because the other averages get most players at least 1 promotion in their minor league career.

Yup, No in season promotions. High K rates that keep climbing with promotions. It would be rare for K rate to go down. What major league player has had success with a 40% K rate. Very few have had a long career with a 30% K rate.

JaleelWhite FanClub · September 9, 2016

Great article! I would also stress that, as an exception to most young players, ABW has been REALLY consistent. We know who he is.

I would disagree with you, though, that ABW's cons outweigh his pros. Looking at the Twins roster, every player has at least 1-2 holes in their game (Mr. Dozier possibly being the exception). Very few have legitimate "plus-tools." To me ABW's power is a "plus-tool." I think it could play at the MLB level.

Do we really think he couldn't outperform what Park did earlier this season? Or match what Sano is doing right now? Sure he may not have the OBP that Sano does, but he can at least play a manageable defensive position and is seemingly a better baserunner.

I've always been a ABW fan and was hoping for a September call-up.

jimmer · September 9, 2016

Great article! I would also stress that, as an exception to most young players, ABW has been REALLY consistent. We know who he is.

I would disagree with you, though, that ABW's cons outweigh his pros. Looking at the Twins roster, every player has at least 1-2 holes in their game (Mr. Dozier possibly being the exception). Very few have legitimate "plus-tools." To me ABW's power is a "plus-tool." I think it could play at the MLB level.

Do we really think he couldn't outperform what Park did earlier this season? Or match what Sano is doing right now? Sure he may not have the OBP that Sano does, but he can at least play a manageable defensive position and is seemingly a better baserunner.

I've always been a ABW fan and was hoping for a September call-up.

You two are both arguing for him to have been promoted. He doesn't believe Walker's cons outweigh his pros. You two are on the same side of the issue.

JaleelWhite FanClub · September 9, 2016

You two are both arguing for him to have been promoted. He doesn't believe Walker's cons outweigh his pros. You two are on the same side of the issue.

Yep misread.

Here's to hoping ABW gets a shot next spring to make the opening day roster.

70charger · September 9, 2016

Oh good. This exact same post again.

GMinTraining · September 9, 2016

26 doubles per season and
4 triples per season and
28 home runs per season
58 extra base hits per season and
96 rbi per season
167 strikeouts per season

These are minor league averages thru 130+ games per season, and not just one level. If Walker hit .238 with similar numbers as above he would be Dozier in 2015. I say that only because Dozier never hit like Dozier (2015) in the minors. What makes one guys production more believable than the next. Sometimes you just need opportunity. If Dozier continued this season like he started 2016 and finished 2015, fans would have asked for his head. He found lightning in a bottle this second half and has given us Twins fans hope for the future. Opportunity and one small fix resurrected his 2016 season and maybe overall perception. From .200 to possible MVP votes? Go figure.

For the record - Dozier played only 48 minor league games in AAA Rochester (2012) before getting promoted. He hit .232 BA with a .286 OBP and a .337 SLG% and 2 HRs in Rochester before that promotion. He then played in 84 MLB games that season while hitting with similar numbers - .234 BA and .271 OBP and .332 SLG% and 6 HRs. The Twins sucked that year too but Dozier was given 84 games to figure stuff out. IMO Walker out performed Dozier at the AAA level (Rochester) , yet wasn't worthy of a Call Up. I am truly interested in the rationale. Meaningful games vs Meaningless games?

Otto von Ballpark · September 9, 2016

For the record - Dozier played only 48 minor league games in AAA Rochester (2012) before getting promoted. He hit .232 BA with a .286 OBP and a .337 SLG% and 2 HRs in Rochester before that promotion. He then played in 84 MLB games that season while hitting with similar numbers - .234 BA and .271 OBP and .332 SLG% and 6 HRs. The Twins sucked that year too but Dozier was given 84 games to figure stuff out. IMO Walker out performed Dozier at the AAA level (Rochester) , yet wasn't worthy of a Call Up. I am truly interested in the rationale. Meaningful games vs Meaningless games?

This isn't quite accurate. Dozier was promoted in early May after only 28 games at AAA, at which time he was hitting .276/.339/.371 for a .710 OPS. Not great, but pretty good for a shortstop in his AAA debut.

After Dozier scuffled in MLB he returned to AAA for 20 games in August, during which he compiled a .171/.210/.289, .499 OPS line which reduced his season AAA numbers to those you reference. And Dozier notably was not called back to Minnesota when rosters expanded that September.

GMinTraining · September 9, 2016

This isn't quite accurate. Dozier was promoted in early May after only 28 games at AAA, at which time he was hitting .276/.339/.371 for a .710 OPS. Not great, but pretty good for a shortstop in his AAA debut.

After Dozier scuffled in MLB he returned to AAA for 20 games in August, during which he compiled a .171/.210/.289, .499 OPS line which reduced his season AAA numbers to those you reference. And Dozier notably was not called back to Minnesota when rosters expanded that September.

Yet started 2013 at the MLB level after hitting .171 as you put it in his return to AAA the previous year. "Opportunity"

Some players earn it for whatever reasons. And some players don't. I just can't explain it when it comes to the Twins. They gave up their Twins Way approach without having a new approach. Now everything is lost in translation. No one understands anything they do. It's probably that way in ranks too. What is your justification for these types of moves? Opportunity for some and not others? Is it that simple - "Strikeouts"? Mike Trout led baseball in strikeouts and won an MVP award the same season. Opportunity!

Rosterman · September 9, 2016

So, this also doesn't look too good for Palka in the long run. We will have to add him to the 40-man this because? But he may strikeout waaaaay too much to ever get a callup.

stringer bell · September 9, 2016

Walker will be able to win a job this spring, pretty much as Dozier did in 2013.

Lee-The-Twins-Fan · September 9, 2016

Comparing Dozier and Walker is comparing apples and oranges.

Compare Walker with other Twins outfielders - not infielders – and you realize the outfield depth may have something to do with Walker not getting called up. Who would you replace with Walker? Rosario? Grossman? Buxton? Kepler? Schafer?

The Twins won't carry more than five outfielders for most of next year. Barring injury, someone would need to be released or sent down.

How is Walker defensively? How's his range? How's his arm? Which OF positions does he play?

The way Buxton (since his recent call-up), Rosario, Grossman and Kepler have been playing, it would be hard to replace any of them.

There's just a lot more to looking at a player than his batting ability. And with Sano and Park, the Twins already have the DH slot filled.

laloesch · September 9, 2016

I have watched Adam Brett Walker II through 4 full seasons. In that time, I have watched Twins daily list him 4 consecutive years within their Top 6 "Hitters of the Year" (not honorable mention). In that time, Walker has drawn consistent praise and consistent criticism. Rightfully so. That being said, we can draw that Walker is as consistent as they come. I enjoyed reading the Twins daily reviews of their Hitters of the Year (2013 thru 2016):

2013
#6 – Adam Walker – Cedar Rapids Kernels (141-508) - .278/.319/.526 (.844), with 31 doubles, seven triples, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 10 SB)
Walker was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University. Like yesterday’s relief pitcher of the year, Tyler Jones, Walker is a product of Milwaukee. After signing with the Twins, he hit 14 homers for Elizabethton last year. This year, he led the Midwest League with 27 home runs and 109 RBI. He added a couple of huge home runs in the playoffs as well. Walker has as much power as anyone in the Twins farm system, but he is also a terrific athlete. He did a nice job in right field. He is also a very good base stealer. He was 10-10 this year and has not been caught on a stolen base attempt since high school. Walker strikes out, but the bigger concern is that he just doesn’t take many walks and control the zone. Without some adjustments, he will struggle as he advances. Fortunately, he is still just 21 years old and has plenty of time to keep developing.

2014
#6 – Adam Walker – Ft. Myers Miracle (124-505 - .246/.307/.436 (.743), with 19 doubles, 1 triple, 24 HR, 94 RBI)
At 6-4 and 225 pounds, Walker is an intimidating presence in the batter’s box. Fortunately for the Twins, he’s fit the part of powerful, athletic run producer ever since he joined the Twins organization after being selected as the team’s third round draft pick in 2012. In short-season Elizabethton, Walker hit 14 homers and drove in 45 runs in 58 games. Last year in Cedar Rapids, he hit 31 doubles, seven triples and 27 home runs while driving in 109 runs, which was second only to Dalton Hicks in all of minor league baseball. He moved up to the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2014 and struggled early. He rarely was able to get his batting average over .250, but he walked eight percent of the time, an improvement. He still has strike zone and contact issues, but there is still so much potential in this 22-year-old.

2015
#2 – Adam Brett Walker – Chattanooga Lookouts (100-356 - .239/.309/.498 (.807), with 31 doubles, 3 triples, 31 HR, 106 RBI)
Walker was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2012. He put together a very interesting 2015 season. His batting average dipped a little, and yet his walk rate improved. He also led minor league baseball in strikeouts with 195. However, it’s hard to ignore the productivity, and the consistent productivity. He led his league in home runs for the third straight season. He drove in over 100 runs for the second time in three seasons. He continued to surprise people with some sneaky stolen bases. He moved from right field to left field. The strikeouts, of course, remain a huge concern in the short and long term. However, few minor leaguers have as much raw power as Walker. His power is on par with Miguel Sano’s. Still just 23-years-old, the hard-working Walker will be added to the Twins 40-man roster following the season.

2016
#5 – Adam Brett Walker – Rochester Red Wings (116-478 - .243/.305/.479 (.784), with 22 doubles, 5 triples, 27 HR, 75 RBI)
For the first time since the Twins made him their 3rd round pick in the 2012 draft, Walker did not lead his league in home runs or RBsI. In 2016 in AAA, he was second with 27 homers and his 75 RBIs was third in the International League. For the fourth straight year, he hit over 25 homers. During the first three months of the season, Walker struck out 42% of his plate appearances. Then, after July 1, he struck out in 34% of his plate appearances. It is still high, but that’s the kind of improvement that should encourage Walker and the Twins front office. Let’s say he can cut that number down to 28-30% and he has a chance to be a solid major leaguer. And there is no questioning the power potential.

I can't argue that Walker has flaws, but I can argue that those flaws haven't hurt his previous teams from winning during those 4 seasons. For a man who averages in 4 minor league seasons:
26 doubles per season and
4 triples per season and
28 home runs per season
58 extra base hits per season and
96 rbi per season
167 strikeouts per season

In the eyes of most, Walker's cons still outweigh his pros. He has proven to be a quality outfielder this season and has stolen 43 bases in 56 attempts as a professional. Despite his yearly numbers, most would rather go with predictions based on "norms". What does an improvement to his current (above) averages make him? A 4th outfielder? An MLB regular? An MLB All Star?

The fact is, Walker is the only prospect to have not been called up, (ever), who appeared as a Twins Daily "Hitter of the Year" candidate (2+ times). Walker has been listed 4 times (TD Hitter of the Year) and yet remains one of few to have never been promoted during a season. To Be (a Twin) or Not To Be - That is the Question?

If the answer is no - then the strikeout average is the only numbers we see, because the other averages get most players at least 1 promotion in their minor league career.

I would argue despite the strikeouts that at the very least he could function as a 4th outfielder with the potential to be more. Why not give him a fall callup and see what he can do? Sure he will strikeout like crazy, but so has Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Vargas, Dozier, Plouffe, practically every hitter in the Twins lineup. The thing he does have is great power. Give him a shot it can't hurt a 100 loss team any further. It could also allow the Twins to move Grossman, maybe Rosario for a pitching prospect?

jimmer · September 9, 2016

Is it that simple - "Strikeouts"? Mike Trout led baseball in strikeouts and won an MVP award the same season. Opportunity!

Using Trout as an argument FOR Walker's promotion is, well, wow....

And to answer your question, no it's not that simple. Keep acting as if Ks are Walker's only flaws when they aren't.

Why don't you compare Trout minor league numbers to Walker's? Trout had a minor league OBP of .425, Walker .310. Mike Trout also struck out a total of 211 times in his minor league career (which was like 16% of the time). Walker struck out 200 times just this year alone.

Yeah, Trout led baseball in strikeouts and won MVP that year (in actually a down year for him, really. His worst year in the majors) but he also had 705 PA and struck out 26% of the time (facing MLB pitching), not 38% of the time (facing AAA pitching). He also managed to get on base almost 38% of the time at the MLB level that year, as opposed to less than 31% of the time in AAA like Walker did (and Walker has never even seen his OBP reach 32% at any professional level). And Trout is a CF, not a corner OF/Dh type.

Mike Trout probably isn't the guy you look to and say opportunity. Unless you want to say that two guys born within 3 months of each other (like Trout and Walker were) deserve the same opportunities.

Walker's flaws are more than Ks.

jimmer · September 9, 2016

I would argue despite the strikeouts that at the very least he could function as a 4th outfielder with the potential to be more. Why not give him a fall callup and see what he can do? Sure he will strikeout like crazy, but so has Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Vargas, Dozier, Plouffe, practically every hitter in the Twins lineup. The thing he does have is great power. Give him a shot it can't hurt a 100 loss team any further. It could also allow the Twins to move Grossman, maybe Rosario for a pitching prospect?

Because it's not just Ks. That narrative needs to die. He can't get on base at the minor league level at anywhere near an acceptable clip either.

EddieMatthews · September 9, 2016

A good hitting team can have one or two high strikeout hitters in the lineup. The Twins suffered at the start of 2016 with too many strikeout hitters. Sano, Park, Rosario, Buxton, Dozier, Plouffe struck out on a regular basis, often resulting in 10 or more K's per game. We can hope for improvement in 2017. As my financial adviser often says, "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results".

The Twins need hitters who can get on base, and who can advance the runners. We don't need more hitters who homer with the bases empty. ABW does not bring anything new to the line-up. He lacks an opportunity as long as there are good options for RF ahead of him. The question is whether he can strike out less, walk more, and control the strike zone.

Maybe he can be another Pete Incaviglia.

clone52 · September 9, 2016

Great article! I would also stress that, as an exception to most young players, ABW has been REALLY consistent. We know who he is.

I would disagree with you, though, that ABW's cons outweigh his pros. Looking at the Twins roster, every player has at least 1-2 holes in their game (Mr. Dozier possibly being the exception). Very few have legitimate "plus-tools." To me ABW's power is a "plus-tool." I think it could play at the MLB level.

Do we really think he couldn't outperform what Park did earlier this season? Or match what Sano is doing right now? Sure he may not have the OBP that Sano does, but he can at least play a manageable defensive position and is seemingly a better baserunner.

I've always been a ABW fan and was hoping for a September call-up.

Right now, where do you put ABW? In theory, you've got Rosario/Buxton/Kepler entrenced in the outfield. Sure, you could give ABW a cup of coffee right now, but the Twins will really want to see the other guys through.

It will be interesting to see what the new POBO and GM will do. If it were me, I'd shop all 4 of those outfielders, trade one if you get a good offer and go with the other 3. You can always get a 4th outfielder.

JaleelWhite FanClub · September 9, 2016

If it were me, I'd shop all 4 of those outfielders, trade one if you get a good offer and go with the other 3. You can always get a 4th outfielder.

With 100 losses in sight, I'd shop everybody.

As for the crowded outfield, I would think September would have been the perfect time to give everyone some MLB at bats, including ABW, before you start the shopping in th eoffseason.

laloesch · September 9, 2016

Because it's not just Ks. That narrative needs to die. He can't get on base at the minor league level at anywhere near an acceptable clip either.

He has since July 1st.

jimbo92107 · September 9, 2016

Trade Walker to the A's, Marlins, or the Blue Jays. Some teams are willing to deal with high K, big power hitters. The Twins apparently are not willing to have such players on their major league club. It's not an unreasonable policy, just the style of this organization.

Meanwhile, keeping a promising power hitter like AB Walker cooped up in the minors is silly and cruel. Free the man. Let him make some money where his skills will be valued.

jimmer · September 9, 2016

He has since July 1st.

If, in a two-month span, a .320 OBP at AAA is acceptable for a corner OF/DH type, then yes he has.

I'd argue that it's not. Just because it's better than the .291 OBP he had from the beginning of the season to the end of June, doesn't mean it's acceptable. How do you think OBPs like that translate to the majors?

TheLeviathan · September 9, 2016

I agree with jimmer that the OBP is a problem.

But good gravy people, the Ks aren't just a problem. They're an enormous, insurmountable problem if you think he deserves a promotion. The guys that are hitting .220 with 200 strikeouts (like Carter on Milwaukee), struck out roughly HALF as much as ABW in their minor league careers. HALF!!!

Right now, if you were to project ABW to get 600 major league at bats he'd likely strike out in 350-400 of them. Unless he's going to get a hit in every at-bat he doesn't strike out, that's a massive problem.

laloesch · September 9, 2016

If, in a two-month span, a .320 OBP at AAA is acceptable for a corner OF/DH type, then yes he has.

I'd argue that it's not. Just because it's better than the .291 OBP he had from the beginning of the season to the end of June, doesn't mean it's acceptable. How do you think OBPs like that translate to the majors?

I don't know, you won't know until they call him up? But since your an expert there's no point in doing that, he's apparently worthless and not worthy of a callup ever.

jimmer · September 9, 2016

I don't know, you won't know until they call him up? But since your an expert there's no point in doing that, he's apparently worthless and not worthy of a callup ever.

You're flame-baiting, and I won't respond in the same manner.

There's no need to be rude. I'm not an expert at all (and neither are you). I'm giving my opinion (just like you). And I'm backing it up with data...

The only thing I'm arguing is that there are real reasons why he didn't get promoted and it's not just because of strikeouts or because he can't get a shot with this organization. His BA and OBP, ALONG WITH the K%, are real factors. This organization has a lot of faults, but not promoting a corner OF/DH type with a sub .250 BA, a sub .310 OBP, and almost 40% K rate isn't one of them.

Oh, and I also never said he wouldn't be worthy of a callup ever. That's a strawman.

gocgo · September 9, 2016

I don't see ABW in the Twins future at a MLB level other than a fill in. He's not going to outperform (defensively) an outfield of Buxton, Rosario, Kepler. His only shot would be as a 4th OF instead of Grossman who is a switch hitter. His real value at AAA is to fill in if an OF gets hurt. There is more benefit to playing the current OF than to give ABW a few token at bats in September.

Vanimal46 · September 9, 2016

You're flame-baiting, and I won't respond in the same manner.

There's no need to be rude. I'm not an expert at all (and neither are you). I'm giving my opinion (just like you). And I'm backing it up with data...

The only thing I'm arguing is that there are real reasons why he didn't get promoted and it's not just because of strikeouts or because he can't get a shot with this organization. His BA and OBP, ALONG WITH the K%, are real factors. This organization has a lot of faults, but not promoting a corner OF/DH type with a sub .250 BA, a sub .310 OBP, and almost 40% K rate isn't one of them.

Oh, and I also never said he wouldn't be worthy of a callup ever. That's a strawman.

No doubt. I'm sure the Twins would love for him to earn a call-up. With numbers like you're presenting, a call-up now is only setting him up to fail miserably.

Let him repeat AAA. If the numbers improve, then by this time next year maybe he's ready for that cup of coffee.

Jham · September 9, 2016

What are a few September AB's gonna tell us that we don't already know? He's not going to suddenly be able to make contact and cut K's or stop flashing potential power. His latest half season showed his K rate to be down somewhat. A cup of coffee for the efforts would have been nice. But Beresford has repeated AAA for how many years? It would be fun watching him take batting practice, but live pitching would be rough. He already received 1 reward last season when we added him to the 40 man. All he had to do was cut the K's and he probably gets an in-season look. He'll have another chance next year, at which point I think he'll get the appreciation look if he doesn't improve.

What's the average adjustment from AAA OPS and K rate to MLB?

diehardtwinsfan · September 9, 2016

I agree with jimmer that the OBP is a problem.

But good gravy people, the Ks aren't just a problem. They're an enormous, insurmountable problem if you think he deserves a promotion. The guys that are hitting .220 with 200 strikeouts (like Carter on Milwaukee), struck out roughly HALF as much as ABW in their minor league careers. HALF!!!

Right now, if you were to project ABW to get 600 major league at bats he'd likely strike out in 350-400 of them. Unless he's going to get a hit in every at-bat he doesn't strike out, that's a massive problem.

This, a hundred times over. Besides, who exactly is Walker going to replace?

DH/1B - Park, Mauer, Vargas for 2017. Park is out of the question this season.

RF/LF - Rosario and Kepler. Nope. He's not as good as either one of them, and those two should be playing every day.

Grossman? - maybe. Of course, he's a defensive downgrade here too, as he's not good with the glove.

The man has only one natural position, and that is one is occupied right now by someone who needs those at bats just as much.

Oh, and for all the issues with Walker, Palka was more deserving, a sure 40 man add this offseason, and he didn't called either. He walks more than Walker, he strikes out less (while still striking out too much), and has maintained much better avg/obp over his minor league career... I like Walker, I really do, but the idea that he's getting snubbed here is ridiculous.

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