To Be Or Not To Be: ABW

[drivlikejehu]

Walker is the baseball version of a long drive champion. The reigning long-drive champ is some guy named Tim Burke. He's not a particularly good golfer, and in fact played college baseball. 

 

Burke was a pitcher, but the advantage to his line of work now is that he gets to hit off a tee. Unless Walker is allowed to do the same, he'll never be successful in the Majors.

[GMinTraining]

 

Walker will be able to win a job this spring, pretty much as Dozier did in 2013.

At least Dozier got a call up his first and only unsuccessful year in AAA.  That makes making the team a lot easier.  Hard to argue that point....

[GMinTraining]

 

Comparing Dozier and Walker is comparing apples and oranges. 

 

Compare Walker with other Twins outfielders - not infielders – and you realize the outfield depth may have something to do with Walker not getting called up. Who would you replace with Walker? Rosario? Grossman? Buxton? Kepler? Schafer?

 

The Twins won't carry more than five outfielders for most of next year.  Barring injury, someone would need to be released or sent down. 

 

How is Walker defensively? How's his range? How's his arm? Which OF positions does he play?

 

The way Buxton (since his recent call-up), Rosario, Grossman and Kepler have been playing, it would be hard to replace any of them.

 

There's just a lot more to looking at a player than his batting ability. And with Sano and Park, the Twins already have the DH slot filled.

He can play defense and his speed is better than average.  We are just talking call up.  A feel for the MLB, not taking major playing time from anyone.  "Beresford like"  He earned that call up IMO - Would not have hurt anyone. Anyone.

[GMinTraining]

 

A good hitting team can have one or two high strikeout hitters in the lineup.  The Twins suffered at the start of 2016 with too many strikeout hitters.  Sano, Park, Rosario, Buxton, Dozier, Plouffe struck out on a regular basis, often resulting in 10 or more K's per game.  We can hope for improvement in 2017.  As my financial adviser often says, "Past performance is not a guarantee of future results".

 

The Twins need hitters who can get on base, and who can advance the runners.  We don't need more hitters who homer with the bases empty.  ABW does not bring anything new to the line-up.  He lacks an opportunity as long as there are good options for RF ahead of him.  The question is whether he can strike out less, walk more, and control the strike zone.  

 

Maybe he can be another Pete Incaviglia.

 

Anomaly - His numbers have almost been identical every seaosn w/OBA - ISO - wRC+ - ETC.

Which is truly rare considering his K issues.  Every season we expect him to struggle at the next level yet he does the same thing.   Struggle and produce at the same rate.   

[GMinTraining]

 

If, in a two-month span, a .320 OBP at AAA is acceptable for a corner OF/DH type, then yes he has. 

 

I'd argue that it's not.  Just because it's better than the .291 OBP he had from the beginning of the season to the end of June, doesn't mean it's acceptable.  How do you think OBPs like that translate to the majors?

Hard to say since Walker has the same OBP at every level practically.  

 

As I said - Dozier had a .284 OBP in AAA.  But he's a power infielder and not a power outfielder, so that's OK based on baseball protocol.  I get that thinking.  Don't agree, but get it.  That means Dozier's OBP in AAA excited you as a AAA infielder?  You would have called him up as the Twins did in 2012 and back again to start 2013?

[GMinTraining]

 

Walker is the baseball version of a long drive champion. The reigning long-drive champ is some guy named Tim Burke. He's not a particularly good golfer, and in fact played college baseball. 

 

Burke was a pitcher, but the advantage to his line of work now is that he gets to hit off a tee. Unless Walker is allowed to do the same, he'll never be successful in the Majors.

"Noted"

[GMinTraining]

 

I agree with jimmer that the OBP is a problem.

 

But good gravy people, the Ks aren't just a problem.  They're an enormous, insurmountable problem if you think he deserves a promotion.  The guys that are hitting .220 with 200 strikeouts (like Carter on Milwaukee), struck out roughly HALF as much as ABW in their minor league careers.  HALF!!!

 

Right now, if you were to project ABW to get 600 major league at bats he'd likely strike out in 350-400 of them.  Unless he's going to get a hit in every at-bat he doesn't strike out, that's a massive problem.  

2 homers and 2 doubles and a single in 17 spring training AB's (5 for 17) with 4 strikeouts.  Both HRs and both doubles were against MLB pitchers.  Small sample size, but wouldn't have had that without Opportunity!

[GMinTraining]

 

 

 

What's the average adjustment from AAA OPS and K rate to MLB? 

 

 

Not sure, but not many people have the identical numbers at every level and produce at the same rate.  Your theory is based on average occurrences of most MLB players.  My theory is based on a guy who repeats regardless to the level.  I'm just curious to see if he can do the same at the MLB level.  HRs - RBI - SO - Runs Scored - XBH's - ISO - wOBA - wRC+ - TB's - etc. etc.  I'm curious and refused to profess to just know.  I'm all gut based on what I've seen over the last 4 years.  Among the best in every league.in several categories offensively.

[GMinTraining]

 

This, a hundred times over. Besides, who exactly is Walker going to replace?

 

DH/1B - Park, Mauer, Vargas for 2017.  Park is out of the question this season.

 

RF/LF - Rosario and Kepler.  Nope.  He's not as good as either one of them, and those two should be playing every day.

 

Grossman? - maybe.  Of course, he's a defensive downgrade here too, as he's not good with the glove.

 

The man has only one natural position, and that is one is occupied right now by someone who needs those at bats just as much.

 

Oh, and for all the issues with Walker, Palka was more deserving, a sure 40 man add this offseason, and he didn't called either.  He walks more than Walker, he strikes out less (while still striking out too much), and has maintained much better avg/obp over his minor league career... I like Walker, I really do, but the idea that he's getting snubbed here is ridiculous. 

 

Have you seen him play?

 

Nothing wrong with his glove and you won't find much on that subject from any of his past managers.  He had an arm issue last year, but fixed that problem this year according to his AAA manager.  Lead outfielders in assist.  Not to mention he was a second team All American at 1B in college (excellent glove around bag).  No position on the Twins maybe - No position in baseball?  Leave him off your 40 man if you want.

 

Top 20 in AAA IL in:

HRs (2nd) / RBI (3rd) / TB (3rd) / XBH (2nd) / SO (1st) / SLG% (6th) / Runs (9th) / OPS (18th) / BB (20th)

 

Why would anyone with these numbers feel snubbed? Ridiculous?  Oh yeah - not to mention Walker won the AAA team MVP in Rochester and was only player on 40 man in AAA not to be called up all season.  Snubbed? ridiculous?

[The Wise One]

To be his power

To not be the wiff machine

 

[Craig Arko]

To be his power

To not be the wiff machine

That is the question.

[mikelink45]

September call ups are not limited.  It is an insult to Walker to be left off the bench.  Yesterday we had Suzuki at clean up!  Talk about a joke.  He hit sixth and went 0-4.  Suzuki is a free agent.  We get nothing from him after this season.  Why do we not have every rookie playing and every vet sitting.  Okay keep Dozier in so he can get his 40 home runs, but this should be about the future and Suzuki and for that matter Schaefer are not the players that are needed for us to move forward.  What win total is so important for the now 52 - 89 Twins that we should be worried about getting vet ABs.  Sit Mauer too.  Sit Molitor too and bring up the minor league manager to play these young and talented players.  So ABW strikes out here, will that cost us a winning season?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Walker will be able to win a job this spring, pretty much as Dozier did in 2013.

 Curious, what position? 

[TheLeviathan]

 

2 homers and 2 doubles and a single in 17 spring training AB's (5 for 17) with 4 strikeouts.  Both HRs and both doubles were against MLB pitchers.  Small sample size, but wouldn't have had that without Opportunity!

 

So, by admitting small sample size, you basically admit this isn't much of an argument on my point right?

 

Again, the kid would likely strike out 400 times if given a full opportunity.  They're doing him a favor keeping him from being exposed.

[Darius]

So, by admitting small sample size, you basically admit this isn't much of an argument on my point right?

 

Again, the kid would likely strike out 400 times if given a full opportunity. They're doing him a favor keeping him from being exposed.

How is the sample size supposed to ever become "not small?"

 

400 times? D'ohK. Accumlating 1000 ABs in a season would require one or two extra inning games. Especially as a role player.

 

But, I guess the Twins do have a lot to lose. Those ABs given to the likes of Santana, Schafer, etc. over the years are vital to the 60 win seasons. Why give ABs to anyone with tools that could actually be useful off the bench?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe we should have assigned Walker to Cedar Rapids again, for their championship drive...