Article: Brian Dozier: Powerful Asset

[Thrylos]

 

 

As far as Dozier being "part of the problem"... uh, what? 

 

Everyone who has been a core player of the 99+96+96+79+9x teams, should be treated as part of the problem.  If Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Suzuki etc are not part of the problem, who is?  The kids?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Everyone who has been a core player of the 99+96+96+79+9x teams, should be treated as part of the problem.  If Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Suzuki etc are not part of the problem, who is?  The kids?

 

Is this a real post? 

 

So, Mike Trout is part of the problem in LA?

 

it is a team sport. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Is this a real post? 

 

So, Mike Trout is part of the problem in LA?

 

it is a team sport. 

 

Ernie Banks and Walter Johnson: the two biggest problems in baseball history.

 

There are good reasons to keep Dozier, however should the Twins move on from Polanco and commit to Dozier, they'll almost surely begin thinking about extending him some time next year.

 

At that point he'd become the expensive vet on the wrong side of 30. I'm not sure this young team needs another one of those.

[Thrylos]

 

Then again:

 

Brian Dozier, career:

.244/.319/.432

 

Jeff Kent through 29 (Dozier's current age):

.269/.324/.455

 

Kent didn't really turn the corner and fulfill his potential until after he turned 30. Granted, it helps that this was when he slid into the same lineup as Barry Bonds. But I liked that comment because it opened my eyes to the idea that Dozier may not be done improving. 

 

The fact that he's still trending upwards, cutting down his K's, getting a little bit better at using the whole field offers some promise to that end. 
 

 

I just looked Baseball Reference  for his comparable players through the same age.  The first 4 are all middle infielders, including a former Twin:

 

Danny Espinosa (953)
Jose Valentin (943)
Damion Easley (943)
Bret Boone (938)

 

Boone might actually be a very good comparable because he developed power later in his career and had some incredible years (including the .331/.372/.578, 37 HR, 141 RBI, 118 R,  2001 season) and some very forgettable years, including his month or so with the Twins, but ended with a very Dozier-like .266/.325/.442 slash line.  

 

I just don't think that Dozier's hit tool is good enough.  I just do not see him hit close to .300.  He hasn't hit in the neighborhood for a good 5 years.  As soon as power appeared, hitting for average disappeared. Looking at Boone's 2001 season, I just do no see Dozier coming near those numbers because of the BA.  This current .266 is the highest he has been in 5 seasons...  

[Thrylos]

 

Is this a real post? 

 

So, Mike Trout is part of the problem in LA?

 

it is a team sport. 

 

LA has a single aberration disaster season (like the Twins had an aberration good season last year).  They won 98 games 2 seasons ago.  Unlike the Twins, there is not a Total System Failure.

 

It is a team sport and the core of the team sucks.  So the core should be cored to improve.

Edited August 15, 2016 by Thrylos

[Everyday Eddy]

If there's controllable,    high upside pitching that can be had for Dozier it should be done.   We have enough offense to overcome his loss.  

[gheggs42]

I think the biggest problem the Twins would face in trading Dozier is finding someone who needs him, second base is the deepest it's been in a long time. I just don't see any struggling team trading for him. With that said, I would look at the Dodgers and the Cardinals as potential fits. Dozier would be an upgrade over Utley or Kendrick and Wong in STL is struggling badly this year. 

LAD gets: Dozier
MIN gets: De Leon (RHP) and Smith/Barnes (catcher) plus a lotto ticket is what I would be asking for. De Leon is major league ready and a top 50 prospect. Barnes is getting somewhat old at 26, Smith is only 21 and at A Adv already after getting drafted this year. Maybe they throw in a guy like Brock Stewart (#14 prospect for LA) who is at AAA and has been very impressive in the minor this year going 9-3 with a 1.75 ERA, .195 avg against and a WHIP of .85. 

STL gets: Dozier
MIN gets: I would ask for Weaver (#92 in the top 100) and catching prospect Kelly (#11 in their system). Both guys are at AAA and could contribute as early as next season. Maybe take a flier on a guy like Marco Gonzales, a former 1st rounder who has had some injury issues but was once a promising prospect.

 

Thoughts?

Edited August 15, 2016 by gheggs42

[Mike Sixel]

 

LA has a single aberration disaster season (like the Twins had an aberration good season last year).  They won 98 games 2 seasons ago.  Unlike the Twins, there is not a Total System Failure.

 

It is a team sport and the core of the team sucks.  So the core should be cored to improve.

 

that wasn't what you posted....you posted that Dozier is part of why they are losing. Stating they should trade him to improve the team overall is a very different statement...

[tobi0040]

You can make a case that We may not be good for two years, so by the time we are good again he is a free agent and would get very expensive at 31.

 

So I would lean trade.

[Winston Smith]

Are they going to have the pitching to be a serious contender in 17 or 18? Highly doubtful isn't it? Trade him, by the time this team is ready to compete, if the new GM is competent any way, he'll be gone.

 

Trade high for once! 2019 is the year all our best prospect should be getting into their prime years and two big contracts will be gone with plenty of money to fill the holes.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I would also shop him hard and throw in enough prospect talent to obtain a pitcher who will be near the top of the rotation next year and many years. They need pitching and none is on the horizon.

Polanco provides obp that this lineup badly needs and I am beginning to think that 2nd base is the only spot where his glove will be adequate.

 

I like this but the problem is that teams who trade away top caliber starting pitching don't tend to want a slugging 29 year old second baseman. Maybe the Mets? White Sox aren't trading Sale in division but otherwise they're the quick rebuild types.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Career numbers:

 

Jeff Kent: .290/.356/.500
Dan Uggla: .241/.336/.447

 

Brian Dozier: .244/.319/.432

 

Become Dan Uggla?  He is Dan Uggla practically

 

Dozier has highs and lows.  He currently is on a high.  I hope that he does not cool off, so the Twins will sell high on him.   His glove is getting worse and worse and the first month he was horrid with the bat.  If he can bring back a top of the rotation arm this off-season, it will be crazy not to do it.  Got to remember, he has been part of the problem, time to go.

 

I'd actually prefer some multiple nice high-upside low minor league arms - guys who can give a boost in mid to late 2018. I think those are the types that teams looking for a 29 year old second baseman are more likely to be willing to deal as they go all in. I know the Twins have gotten burned before on that with Meyer and to a lesser extent May but losing Dozier doesn't significantly weaken your team since Polanco looks MLB ready and I'd rather see the Twins gamble then get a #2 MLB pitcher (I can't see a situation where a team with a #1 pitcher is looking to deal him for an old 2B so I think a #2 with a few years of control left is more likely if you go "who can help the 2017 Twins").

[Shaitan]

How quickly we forgot how bad the offense was for those  first 75 games this season. Though Dozier was part of that, obviously. I'm not convinced offense is an area of strength.

 

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Everyone who has been a core player of the 99+96+96+79+9x teams, should be treated as part of the problem.  If Dozier, Mauer, Plouffe, Suzuki etc are not part of the problem, who is?  The kids?

 

If I am getting sick a lot, I don't start lopping off body parts willy nilly because they must be part of the problem if they've been around for the sickness. Instead, I try to identify where the problem areas have been and go about fixing those. Dozier has been up and down but 2B has been pretty low on the list of problem areas for the Twins the past five years. Bigger areas have been SP, C, OF.

 

This is like putting Jack Kevorkian in charge of diagnosing your health problems. You end up dead.

[Shaitan]

 

I like this but the problem is that teams who trade away top caliber starting pitching don't tend to want a slugging 29 year old second baseman. Maybe the Mets? White Sox aren't trading Sale in division but otherwise they're the quick rebuild types.

 

Agreed. I think for a Dozier caliber player you'd have to package top prospects to get a true #1-2 pitcher.

 

Otherwise you're rolling the dice in another Span-Meyer style move. With Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorp, and more in the system now I'm not sure that's a risk worth taking. 

[Mike Sixel]

don't forget to adjust for league wide numbers when comparing him to Kent.....

[ThejacKmp]

 

LA has a single aberration disaster season (like the Twins had an aberration good season last year).  They won 98 games 2 seasons ago.  Unlike the Twins, there is not a Total System Failure.

 

It is a team sport and the core of the team sucks.  So the core should be cored to improve.

 

I think the only way I'd understand what you're saying is if you're talking about kind of a team leadership piece. Then Dozier would be a key part of that. But though the Twins have had tons of problems the past 5 years, I've never had the feeling that the team quit or that there were chemistry issues. The main problem for the Twins has been that they have too many bad players each year. Their starting pitching has been a disaster due to some bad drafting in the late 2000s and some injury misfortune. The bullpen  has been bad too and the Twins have had some pretty big issues at corner OF and catcher.

 

But through it all, the team has competed. Even when everyone hated Gardy it was never about motivating the team, it was about developing players and in-game decision making. Not sure I get your point.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

 

The twins have 3 streaky backend SP and 2 question marks in the rotation for 2017. Instead of trading away young talent to build around their one veteran asset wouldn't it make more sense to trade an aging veteran for more young talent or mlb talent at another position of need given Polanco's presence? It's not all that different than the Plouffe situation of last year.

 

 

First, Dozier is hardly aging - he is in the prime of his career.  Second, I don't quite understand the singular focus on a youth movement.  I am pretty sure this is what got Ryan fired - his reluctance to deal prospects for proven major league talent.   

 

The whole youth movement perspective assumes that every asset the team has will pan out.  I really like Polanco - but we have no idea if he will ever approach the productivity of Dozier.  I would rather bank on a commodity that has proven he can succeed at the major league level - particularly one with such a favorable contract than hope that Polanco pans out.  Sure you have to rely on youth and develop from within to a certain extent - but you also need to be willing to part with some of those assets to build a more well rounded and experienced team.  This year has proven that you can't put all your eggs in the youth movement basket.

 

 

[Winston Smith]

Agreed. I think for a Dozier caliber player you'd have to package top prospects to get a true #1-2 pitcher.

 

Otherwise you're rolling the dice in another Span-Meyer style move. With Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorp, and more in the system now I'm not sure that's a risk worth taking.

What risk? Likely none of those guys will be top ML pitchers in 17 or 18. By the time they hopefully are Dozier is gone. This isn't a Span-Revere type thing with nobody really ready to step in. Polanco very well will give similar production going forward, of course every move can fail.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Agreed. I think for a Dozier caliber player you'd have to package top prospects to get a true #1-2 pitcher.

 

Otherwise you're rolling the dice in another Span-Meyer style move. With Berrios, Jay, Gonsalves, Thorp, and more in the system now I'm not sure that's a risk worth taking. 

 

Shaitan is a really aggressive moniker. Well played.

 

I'd prefer not to package top prospects. I like getting more of the Berrios/Jay/Gonsalves types. The more of those you have, the more likely you are that several develop and you get a Mets thing with young controllable pitching.

 

I'm not sure where I see surplus for the Twins as far as top prospects go. Vielma and Gordon are too young for me to feel comfortable choosing one as the SS of the future and putting all chips there. Vargas/Park don't have enough value and are not top prospects obviously, much like most guys at the corners in the IF. The OF is the one place but with Buxton, Rosario and Kepler I don't have enough confidence to start trading the guys who would step in if those guys don't pan out. Palka/ABW/Granite haven't really shown enough for me to feel set in OF. Maybe Kiriloff but I'd rather see him develop some more before trading him right after drafting him.

 

That's why I'd love to see Dozier dealt high for multiple high-upside pitching prospects - something like a Jay/Jorge type and a couple of nice A ball arms. It wouldn't make the Twins better in 2017 but I don't think the Twins are one pitcher away anyways. 2017 is time to get back above .500 and adding a little boost to the pitching coming up in 2018 would be nice.

[ThejacKmp]

 

First, Dozier is hardly aging - he is in the prime of his career.  Second, I don't quite understand the singular focus on a youth movement.  I am pretty sure this is what got Ryan fired - his reluctance to deal prospects for proven major league talent.   

 

The whole youth movement perspective assumes that every asset the team has will pan out.  I really like Polanco - but we have no idea if he will ever approach the productivity of Dozier.  I would rather bank on a commodity that has proven he can succeed at the major league level - particularly one with such a favorable contract than hope that Polanco pans out.  Sure you have to rely on youth and develop from within to a certain extent - but you also need to be willing to part with some of those assets to build a more well rounded and experienced team.  This year has proven that you can't put all your eggs in the youth movement basket.

 

I don't think there'd be a "trade Dozier" movement if the Twins didn't have the surplus at 2B. I think this is less of a youth movement thing and more of a "if we're going to trade, let's go for 5 or 6 years of the young cheap guy over 2 years of the older guy" thing.

 

There's never a guarantee with prospects but the Twins are actually fairly okay in the middle IF. Vielma and Gordon are getting closer to coming up so even if Polanco hits a wall (which would be a surprise) you'd think one of them could shift over relatively easily.

 

Sometimes you've got to make moves from a position of strength. They don't always work but you gotta make 'em.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think the biggest problem the Twins would face in trading Dozier is finding someone who needs him, second base is the deepest it's been in a long time. I just don't see any struggling team trading for him. With that said, I would look at the Dodgers and the Cardinals as potential fits. Dozier would be an upgrade over Utley or Kendrick and Wong in STL is struggling badly this year. 

LAD gets: Dozier
MIN gets: De Leon (RHP) and Smith/Barnes (catcher) plus a lotto ticket is what I would be asking for. De Leon is major league ready and a top 50 prospect. Barnes is getting somewhat old at 26, Smith is only 21 and at A Adv already after getting drafted this year. Maybe they throw in a guy like Brock Stewart (#14 prospect for LA) who is at AAA and has been very impressive in the minor this year going 9-3 with a 1.75 ERA, .195 avg against and a WHIP of .85. 

STL gets: Dozier
MIN gets: I would ask for Weaver (#92 in the top 100) and catching prospect Kelly (#11 in their system). Both guys are at AAA and could contribute as early as next season. Maybe take a flier on a guy like Marco Gonzales, a former 1st rounder who has had some injury issues but was once a promising prospect.

 

Thoughts?

There could be a fit with the Dodgers. I forgot they have Chase Utley's decaying corpse playing 2B... 

I don't really see the fit with the Cardinals. Matt Carpenter is pretty solid. 

 

Personally I think there's better fits in the AL. And I would hope that an AL team pays a higher price because he could slide in as a very capable DH. 

[ashbury]

And I would hope that an AL team pays a higher price because he could slide in as a very capable DH. 

I support trying to convince a rival team of this point of view, independent of any particular trade, since the "and if nothing else, he can DH" mindset explains a lot about how we wound up with the defensively challenged 40-man rosters we've had the past few seasons.

[TheLeviathan]

This guy is so feast or famine it's crazy.  He was borderline DFA material for 130 games and now he's on an insane binge.

 

Trade him.  I don't care what the end of the year stats say, you can't march a guy out for half the season when he's that putrid and hope he'll eventually binge again.  Some modicum of consistency is absolutely necessary.  

 

One of these times he won't binge for a month to recoup value.  Sell high this offseason.

[DocBauer]

There are two points of view being discussed on here that I greatly respect and want to jump on board with, but can't bring myself to do so. The first is that the Twins have enough offense to offset Dozier's loss, and the second is that if the team can't contend the next two seasons, then Dozier is a FA in 2019 and we potentially lose him for nothing or face a big contract to keep him.

 

Sano is already a stud and will only get better. I have tremendous faith in Kepler's ability. I like Vargas and think he could be a keeper. I still have all the faith in the world in the young Buxton, he's just not there yet. (Yes, there might be some adjustments that have to be made) I very much like Polanco, and think Rosario will continue to get better and be a very productive and dangerous player, just never make the contact or have the OB skills to move up from the 6 or 7 spot in the lineup. And there are the likes of Gordon, Garver, Palka and Granite that have a real chance to be nice to very good players. But this group is still so young. And despite some of his poor streaks, Dozier is a real producer and a veteran one at that.

 

The Twins biggest problem is a rotation that can compete at a top level. I believe there are pieces in the bullpen to build with, other strong pieces very close, and a smart GM can augment that bullpen with a move or two without having to blow up the roster or his milb talent pool. But I'm not convinced that further growth from said youngsters, including some rotation candidates, that the Twins are already excluded from any sort of contention in 2017 or 2018, though '18 seems more likely.

 

Berrios and Duffey are a coupleading of nice kids to work with, Berrios especially so. It's not too far fetched to think Gonsalves could be ready at some point in 2017. Just how good is Mejia? We don't know yet. A healthy Gibson pitching like he did in 2015 is solid. I'm not saying this all shakes out for contention, but it's also not impossible either. A stronger bullpen, a young lineup getting better and better, with Dozier as a part of it, could make for a nice team. And if the Twins did want to re-sign Dozier, we have some contract coming off the books over the next couple of years.

 

Solid arguements. Just not sure I'm sold.

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe I'll look at this tonight.....

 

So, there are other stats that take into account leverage and win probability of every at bat.....

 

Could you measure the value of a streaky player by looking at WAR/WPA or something like that? dozier is 17th in fWAR, but 80th in WPA/LI......does that tell us something?

 

*I know, some of you just puked...

[gheggs42]

 

There could be a fit with the Dodgers. I forgot they have Chase Utley's decaying corpse playing 2B... 

I don't really see the fit with the Cardinals. Matt Carpenter is pretty solid. 

 

Personally I think there's better fits in the AL. And I would hope that an AL team pays a higher price because he could slide in as a very capable DH. 

Thought Carpenter was at 3B?

[Vanimal46]

 

Thought Carpenter was at 3B?

Perhaps he is. I'm no great Cardinals lineup mind. Just saw him on the qualified 2B stat list on Fangraphs and assumed he did. 

[jimmer]

For the Cards, Peralta is at 3B, and Carpenter is at 1st.  They moved Peralta to 3B because Diaz was doing so well.  Now he's out so Garcia is there.

 

But it's not like Carpenter can't go back to 3B if they want Moss at 1B with Peralta sliding back to shortstop.  They have options. 

Edited August 15, 2016 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

 

Maybe I'll look at this tonight.....

 

So, there are other stats that take into account leverage and win probability of every at bat.....

 

Could you measure the value of a streaky player by looking at WAR/WPA or something like that? dozier is 17th in fWAR, but 80th in WPA/LI......does that tell us something?

 

*I know, some of you just puked...

 

That would be highly valuable, if anyone knows how to draw such a distinction.

 

You almost have to feel that a consistent player is better than a wildly erratic one, but I wonder if you can derive that from his stats.