Article: Twins Offense Fulfilling Its Potential, And Then Some

[Nick Nelson]

The Boston Red Sox are in the thick of the postseason race primarily because of their incredible offense. They have outscored the next-closest American League team by 50 runs, they lead baseball in OPS by a wide margin, and four of their hitters started in the All Star Game. The Red Sox are on pace to score almost 900 runs.

 

Would it surprise you to learn that Minnesota's offense has been better than Boston's over the past couple of months?Plenty of doubts swirled around the Twins pitching staff entering this season, and unfortunately things have played out as many feared (or worse) in that department.

 

Yet, the offense looked like a safe bet to score a ton of runs.

 

The potential power that this group boasted, on paper, led some to wonder if they might approach 200 home runs, a feat that hasn't been accomplished by a Twins team in 50 years.

 

This unit's lacking production over the first leg of the season was by far the most disappointing development among many, in my mind.

 

It's now a distant memory.

 

The Twins have managed to turn things around in a big way when it comes to run-scoring. Here's a comparative look at what the Twins and Red Sox offenses have done since June 1st (not including Thursday's games):

 

Boston: 54 G, 273 R, 70 HR, 28 SB, .276/.343/.449 (.792 OPS)

Minnesota: 56 G, 305 R, 76 HR, 39 SB, .271/.336/.466 (.802 OPS)

 

It isn't a huge difference, but the Twins have outhit, outrun and outscored this star-studded Red Sox lineup for two months and running. You can throw many different numbers around but this, to me, really encapsulates the emergence of Minnesota's offense.

 

That 200-HR benchmark that seemed like a pipe dream in May? It's suddenly well within reach. Presently the Twins are on pace to finish with 193, which would be the fourth-highest total in franchise history and the most since 1987.

 

What's truly remarkable about this ongoing offensive tear is that it has come to fruition without much support from the expected (or hopeful) contributors. Miguel Sano missed all of June and has slumped since his return. Byron Buxton still has not turned a corner at the plate. Byung Ho Park posted a .684 OPS before being sent to the minors. Oswaldo Arcia is in another organization.

 

Others have been pulling the weight to make up for these shortcomings. Up and down the lineup, people are getting it done. Brian Dozier, who gained a reputation for falling off in the second half, has been scorching since the break. Kurt Suzuki is amidst a career year. Joe Mauer is coming off a jaw-dropping series in Cleveland, restoring hope that his April wasn't a total fluke.

 

And, of course, Max Kepler is enjoying one of the better power-hitting rookie seasons we've ever seen.

 

For the most part, these performances carry promising future implications. And the outlook for the offensive unit overall is even more encouraging when you consider the untapped potential of guys like Buxton and Sano.

 

The next general manager, whether it's Rob Antony or a newcomer, is going to face some daunting challenges when it comes to rebuilding the pitching staff. But he/she is also going to inherit a talented and dominant young offense, which is now taking the step from potential to proven.

 

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[Comrade Bork]

What do you think the twins record would be if the started the Season with this current roster??

 

Are they only crushing it now because of the complete lack of pressure, or is there something completely different going on? Mollie figuring out how to manage the youth? (doubt it) Kepler single handedly putting the team on his shoulders?

 

2 months of the best offense seems like it's becoming a large SSS.

[troyhobbs]

Hitting is contagious (as is not hitting). Guess I need to retract all my Bruno sucks posts now, clearly the guy is a genius.

[mikelink45]

Nice to have a hot spell, but at this point we do not know which spell - hot or cold - is the real team.  Too early to put this team with Hall, Allison, Killebrew, and Oliva.  But it sure is nice while it is happening.

 

[terrydactyls]

People use a lot of acronyms in the comment section, most of which us old-timers (I remember the the first Twins game in 1961) don't understand. I get the general meaning of most but the one that baffles me is "SSS." Please explain. It sounds like something from a World War II documentary on the Nazis. Thanks.

[Craig Arko]

 

People use a lot of acronyms in the comment section, most of which us old-timers (I remember the the first Twins game in 1961) don't understand. I get the general meaning of most but the one that baffles me is "SSS." Please explain. It sounds like something from a World War II documentary on the Nazis. Thanks.

This old-timer knows that one: Small Sample Size. It's a Statistics thing.

Edited August 5, 2016 by Craig Arko

[ashbury]

This old-timer knows that one: Small Sample Size. It's a Statistics thing.

Maybe it will help us old-timers to change it to HHH: Hurricane Hazle Hazard.

[Craig Arko]

 

Maybe it will help us old-timers to change it to HHH: Hurricane Hazle Hazard.

Hubert Horatio Humphrey.

[nytwinsfan]

As Nick pointed out, the truly amazing thing about this is that Buxton continues to be terrible behind the plate and Sano is slumping (relatively speaking).  Imagine what this offense could be if those two reach their potential.

[ashbury]

As Nick pointed out, the truly amazing thing about this is that Buxton continues to be terrible behind the plate

I think you've uncovered an important flaw in Buxton's approach, that should be communicated to Bruno at once! Maybe if he moves up in the batter's box, he won't be so vulnerable to breaking pitches in the dirt.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I think you've uncovered an important flaw in Buxton's approach, that should be communicated to Bruno at once! Maybe if he moves up in the batter's box, he won't be so vulnerable to breaking pitches in the dirt.

hahahaha

[Craig Arko]

 

As Nick pointed out, the truly amazing thing about this is that Buxton continues to be terrible behind the plate..

So, not the catcher of the future, then?

[terrydactyls]

This old-timer knows that one: Small Sample Size. It's a Statistics thing.

Thanks. Maybe I'll remember it now (although I already forgot the question - Martha, where are my pills?)

[dbminn]

It's great to see the prospects starting to reach their potential. I'm optimistic Sano will report a different player next year, partially because some of his peers have (temporarily) passed him by. There will still be some ups and downs, but the bottom has been left behind as far as hitting is concerned.

 

Hopefully, the starting pitchers will start to catch up with the position players in the next year. At least they will have some options: Santana, Gibson, Berrios and Rodriguez likely make up the front four. Mejia, Duffey, Wheeler or May could be fifth to start the season. I wouldn't rule out Gonsalves after the all-star break. I don't think the pitching outlook is as bleak as most think.

 

Of course, a big trade for a high-upside SP wouldn't hurt. The Twins have enough depth to trade position players from either the MLB club or the farm system. Along with pitching, I'd like to see them pick up a SS who plays excellent defense.

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2016 by dbminn

[nytwinsfan]

This is an awesome fangraphs article about Max Kepler and how he seems to be really good at pitch recognizing:   http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-case-study-in-pitch-recognition-with-max-kepler/

 

Really worth a read.

[Comrade Bork]

This is an awesome fangraphs article about Max Kepler and how he seems to be really good at pitch recognizing:   http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-case-study-in-pitch-recognition-with-max-kepler/

 

Really worth a read.

 

Nice one! That was an awesome article.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, coming into the year, many of us thought this would be a fun offense.  Nice to see it happening.  

[wsnydes]

 

I think you've uncovered an important flaw in Buxton's approach, that should be communicated to Bruno at once! Maybe if he moves up in the batter's box, he won't be so vulnerable to breaking pitches in the dirt.

Oh you...

[bluechipper]

I was really optimistic about the offense coming into the season, and it's great to finally see them producing.

[ScooterDance]

 

This is an awesome fangraphs article about Max Kepler and how he seems to be really good at pitch recognizing:   http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-case-study-in-pitch-recognition-with-max-kepler/

 

Really worth a read.

 

So in reading this article, they linked to the best hitters in the game since the ASG. Kepler 8th, Dozier 10th, Mauer 17th. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=31&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

[DocBauer]

What excites me the most is that this above .500 record, (as of now) and offensive production is that it's without Plouffe, has continued without Nunez, and I believe other than Mauer and Suzuki, everyone is 28 or younger.

 

Kepler is a rookie. Polanco is a rookie.(SSS but he's hitting and talented and getting to play) Buxton, Rosario, Sano and Vargas are all talented, contributing, and barely past rookie status themselves. The best is yet to come for these guys!

 

A glass is half empty fan won't like this, reflecting on an overall disappointing season, but when you look at this roster, position player wise, you can almost set next year's roster already. The OF is set, and old man Grossman, at 26, is a solid 4th OF/DH. Sano, Escobar, Dozier and Polanco in the INF with a combination of Mauer/Vargas/Park at 1Bb/DH. Perhaps room for all three.

 

Catcher is the only real question mark.

 

And how much better will this lineup look like with Sano and Buxton getting on track? I believe Buxton is a real key to 2017 and beyond. He is just so young, and has been pushed quicker than the Twins would have preferred, by their own admission. But even without realizing his full potential immediately, how good does the batting order stack up if he could just hit in the .270 range with an OB around .340 with power and speed at the top of the lineup? He's certainly capable of much more than that, and will probably get there. But a legitimate, decent top of the order hitter let's Dozier drop and sets up something like the following:

 

1} Buxton

2} Mauer-Escobar/Polanco/Grossman

3} Kepler

4} Sano

5} Dozier

6/7/sometimes 8} Vargas/Park/Rosario

8/9} Escobar/catcher

[TheLeviathan]

Let's be clear, many of the cogs in this offensive turn-around are not ones we were planning on - Kepler, Escobar, Vargas, Suzuki, Grossman, even Rosario.  It's great to see this, but man do we need Sano and Buxton to join in.

[insane16]

With Rosario and Kepler killing it, can we quit whining about the Hicks trade?

[Mike Sixel]

You can see the makings of a good offense....though I'm not sure Rosario is killing it, per se.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Feel free to point to someplace where people are "whining about the Hicks trade."

 

In NY, I think....

[insane16]

 

In NY, I think....

Especially in Rochester, NY!

 

[Rosterman]

I actually felt, coming out of spring training, that we had a starting staff that would egt us to the 7th inning. That we might actually have four guys that would pitch us nearly 200 innings each. But didn't happen. And won't.

 

I felt the bullpen seemed solid, with Perkins as closer, some ncie setup guys for the 8th, a nice mix of solid arms. Lots of ups-and-downs.

 

The offense, far from perfect, had the potential. The soph slump was evident the previous year. You could also see it this year. With so many coaches working with guys now, you'd think problems would be solved (the Twins have a second hitting coach, the bench coach, and all those consultants). 

 

And considering the lack of Park in the lineup, and the fizzle of Arcia, they are hitting homeruns. Nunez contributed above and beyond to that, fer sure.

 

Now jsut have to figure out who you want to have remain in a Twins uniform now and the immedoate future, and who is promising in the wings and where you will palce them. Lots of parts to put together a fine team, plus lots of spare parts to more today and tomorrow.

[Mr. Brooks]

With Rosario and Kepler killing it, can we quit whining about the Hicks trade?

Keeping Hicks was more about giving Buxton more time in AAA, so I'm not sure what that has to do with Rosario and Kepler.

Also, in regards to Rosario, he's still swinging at everything, and having a good run of luck. Unless he learns how to take more than 1 walk per month, the bad Rosario is never going to be too far away.

[insane16]

Keeping Hicks was more about giving Buxton more time in AAA, so I'm not sure what that has to do with Rosario and Kepler.

Hicks was being re-positioned as a corner OF a swing-OF.

That has to do with Rosario and Kepler.

[Mr. Brooks]

Hicks was being re-positioned as a corner OF a swing-OF.

That has to do with Rosario and Kepler.

Well plenty of people wanted to keep Hicks as a stop gap to give Buxton more time at AAA, though I won't argue there were some who wanted a Rosario, Buxton, Hicks OF.

Regardless, Rosario needs a lot more time in AAA, so there would still be room for Kepler.