Vargas 2.0

[jimbo92107]

Last year was a pretty good rookie campaign for Kennys Vargas. He came up as a powerful, switch-hitting first baseman, slugged some big home runs, played solid in the field. 

 

Unfortunately, pitchers figured him out during the off-season. Long swing, a sucker for changing speeds and the old dying duck curves off the outside corner. 

 

After some awkward flailing in the spring, Twins sent Vargas down to AAA to make some adjustments. It took a while, but oh my goodness, did he make some adjustments! Meet Kennys Vargas 2.0: Short, compact, powerful swing. Excellent plate discipline, perfectly willing to take a walk. Because of his more compact, direct hitting style, Vargas now is able to wait longer to swing or check, so he is much less vulnerable to sweeping sucker pitches. 

 

What is more impressive is that Vargas does not appear to have sacrificed much if any power by shortening his swing. When he barrels up a pitch, it sizzles off his bat. Vargas appears to have increased his plate coverage, and appears now to hit the ball hard in every direction. I don't see how a team could do a defensive shift on Vargas. He's not pull happy, he doesn't slice balls oppo. He pretty much hits balls where they're pitched.

 

Kennys Vargas is good example of a guy that came up on talent, then went back down to AAA to learn how to stay in the majors. He learned exactly what he needed to learn, and now it's paying off big time. Vargas now looks like a major league starter. 

[drivlikejehu]

I'm not sure I follow the timeline presented here. Vargas debuted 2 years ago, not last year. Last year he wasn't any good, and actually he wasn't very good in AAA this year either, though some of that was bad luck on balls in play.

 

Vargas has never been a pure slugger. His minor league track record is more that of a line-drive hitter, despite his size and lack of speed. 

 

I don't see any evidence that the current run is anything more than a hot streak by a player with average hitting ability but no defensive value. That would make him a below average 1B or DH.

[DocBauer]

Yes, his good season was 2014, which is what I believed you were trying to say. But I agree with your assessment. Now, we can argue SSS at the ML level in 2016, or claim a hot streak, but I'm buying in to Vargas 2.0.

 

I posted his milb career numbers in another thread a couple of weeks ago and won't do so again here. But I'd invite anyone and everyone to go take a look at them. He's still young, skipped over AAA entirely before his ML debut, so some flailing and adjustments weren't exactly a surprise. But his milb history shows a sold BA, quality OB numbers, high OPS, despite not being the classic "thumper" his size might suggest. But he has real power. And he is showing real plate discipline. I believe this is a result of time, adjustments, and a reflection of his past success and not just a hot streak.

[TheLeviathan]

The problem is the sample size is still small and the Ks are still high, but 12 XBH in 58 at-bats, better patience at the plate, and a different approach are all evidence of something different.  We just need more ABs and time to see it through.

[drivlikejehu]

Well, it's definitely a hot streak. Vargas obviously isn't one of the top 5 hitters in baseball. 

 

Stretches like this happen. All the things being said about Vargas could have been or were said about Grossman, and he continues to come back down to Earth. The difference of course is that Grossman can actually play in the field.

 

Is Vargas playing better than in his previous MLB opportunities? Yes. But realistically you have to look at the whole picture, good and bad, from more than 70 PAs.

[dgwills]

What's always intrigued me about Vargas is the combination of on base skills and power. I don't expect him to keep up his current streak, but I see him as being a valuable 1B/DH for the Twins.

[jorgenswest]

Since 2014, Vargas has an OPS of .751 in the majors. At his age it is reasonable to expect it will increase. In that same time frame Joe Mauer has an OPS of .728. At his age it isn't likely to improve.

 

If you were building a team for 2017-2018, which guy would you go with?

[USAFChief]

Since 2014, Vargas has an OPS of .751 in the majors. At his age it is reasonable to expect it will increase. In that same time frame Joe Mauer has an OPS of .728. At his age it isn't likely to improve.

If you were building a team for 2017-2018, which guy would you go with?

I'd go with the guy who not only might be better, but comes with a 40 some odd million dollar discount.

[DaveW]

 

Since 2014, Vargas has an OPS of .751 in the majors. At his age it is reasonable to expect it will increase. In that same time frame Joe Mauer has an OPS of .728. At his age it isn't likely to improve.

If you were building a team for 2017-2018, which guy would you go with?

Obviously most everyone would take Vargas and his contract/age over Mauer and his contract and age at this stage. That simply isn't reality though.

Reality is that BOTH guys are probably below average 1st baseman/DH moving forward, which is why I probably would have kept Arcia around as well to be a DH option moving forward (who has a .770 OPS for Tampa Bay)

Or I would look to upgrade the 1B/DH position overall for 2017, One of Vargas/Mauer can take one of the spots, but with the other spot I would prefer they take a run at an impact bat like Trump or Encarnacion.

MLB Trade rumors indicates that Encarnarcion could be had on a 3/60 type deal. I'd be all for that.

 

CF-Buxton

RF- Kepler

LF- Rosario (or trade for Puig)

2B Dozier

SS Polanco

3B Sano

1B/DH- Mauer/Vargas

1B/DH- Trumbo or Encarnarcion

Catcher- Pray.

[darin617]

All I am waiting for is Buxton 2.0 to make it through like 2 weeks without an injury.

[twinsnorth49]

Based on what the OP was mentioning, I question how many people have bothered to actually watch Vargas play in his return.

[twinsnorth49]

 

 

Stretches like this happen. All the things being said about Vargas could have been or were said about Grossman, and he continues to come back down to Earth. The difference of course is that Grossman can actually play in the field.

Grossman looks like the same player as before with different results. So far Vargas looks to have made adjustments to his swing and approach. The latter gives me more reason to believe he'll continue to be effective despite the SSS.

[stringer bell]

 

Based on what the OP was mentioning, I question how many people have bothered to actually watch Vargas play in his return.

For sure, North! I haven't gotten the chance to watch as much Twins baseball as I want, but there is a marked difference in Vargas 2015 and Vargas 2016. He's so much more selective and it is really paying off. Not only with more walks, but also with more hitter's counts and he's punishing cookies. I'll grant that it is SSS and that Vargas still strikes out plenty, but the new, improved Kennys looks pretty impressive.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Reality is that BOTH guys are probably below average 1st baseman/DH moving forward, which is why I probably would have kept Arcia around as well to be a DH option moving forward (who has a .770 OPS for Tampa Bay)

 

I'm not sure we should be omitting the fact that since his very good 4-game stretch at the end of June, Oswaldo's OPS is .521.

 

I'm far from sold on Kennys Vargas, but I wouldn't trade him for Arcia. 

[KGB]

 

MLB Trade rumors indicates that Encarnarcion could be had on a 3/60 type deal. I'd be all for that.

 

The last thing the Twins need is another DH especially at $20 million a year.

 

Vargas is out of options and the Twins are going nowhere, time to give him a long look and make Mauer a part time player.

[DaveW]

The last thing the Twins need is another DH especially at $20 million a year.

 

Vargas is out of options and the Twins are going nowhere, time to give him a long look and make Mauer a part time player.

I'd pay $60 million for a guy with a .917 ops and 36 HR a year his last 5 years.

[HitInAPinch]

Wow, 18 games....

[bird]

 

I'd go with the guy who not only might be better, but comes with a 40 some odd million dollar discount.

 

 

And who is actually fun to watch.

[Bill]

Vargas should get at least as many ABs the rest of this season as Mauer. 

[stringer bell]

 

I'd pay $60 million for a guy with a .917 ops and 36 HR a year his last 5 years.

 

So only Twins players regress mightily when they turn 30?

 

I wonder if Vargas impresses the rest of the year, what happens to Park? Incidentally, Park just turned 30 sometime since his demotion. For those of you who don't check Rochester's box score every day, Park Bang had a monumental surge, something like eight homers in 10 days, with three in one game, but he's hitless his last three games. His numbers are good, but not off the charts.

 

Would the Twins consider trading Park if they believe Vargas is the superior DH/1B? Park's remaining contract would actually be a good reason for another team to trade for him.

[Trov]

I am not sold that this Varges is the Varges going forward, but willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  People say it is SSS or hot streak, well sure, but every young player should be given a chance to prove they have figured it out.  When Varges first came up he was hot and was willing to hit the ball where it was pitched, but then Arcia got in his head and said you should just hit HR's and not worry about that oppo stuff.  Why he took any advice from Arcia I don't know.  However, Varges then started striking out more and hitting much less balls against the shifts, as he was trying to do before.  I agree Varges just getting on base may not be the best use of his abilities, but he showed a willingness to try and get on base.  I am willing to let him show he can get it done.  Remember Ortiz was written off by many and see what he did when got his chance after an injury in Boston gave him playing time.  Not say Varges is Ortiz, just saying giving up on players early can come back to hurt for years.

[KGB]

 

I'd pay $60 million for a guy with a .917 ops and 36 HR a year his last 5 years.

Unfortunately you are paying for his next 3 years, not his last 5.  That's our problem with Mauer now, people need to get over the player he was and start looking at the player he is today.

[stringer bell]

 

Unfortunately you are paying for his next 3 years, not his last 5.  That's our problem with Mauer now, people need to get over the player he was and start looking at the player he is today.

and will be next year and beyond.

[DaveW]

 

Unfortunately you are paying for his next 3 years, not his last 5.  That's our problem with Mauer now, people need to get over the player he was and start looking at the player he is today.

He is on pace for 40 HR this year, there is no reason why he still can't be just as good as he is today for the next 2-3 years. His power can last until he is 36.

[Willihammer]

Let's remember that Vargas didn't force his way onto the 25 with his AAA production. He got lucky because Park was struggling so badly. His production spiked after the promotion which is suspicious.

 

I like Vargas, his statcast data is fun. He hits balls as hard as G. Stanton does. But for his career Vargas puts 1.5x as many balls on the ground as he puts in the air. This I believe is a result of a downward tomahawk stroke. He does have a better fly ball ratio the last 18 games but the swing I see is one you would teach to Willy Mays Hayes, not a 280 pound DH.

[King]

 

 
So only Twins players regress mightily when they turn 30?

 

I wonder if Vargas impresses the rest of the year, what happens to Park? Incidentally, Park just turned 30 sometime since his demotion. For those of you who don't check Rochester's box score every day, Park Bang had a monumental surge, something like eight homers in 10 days, with three in one game, but he's hitless his last three games. His numbers are good, but not off the charts.

 

Would the Twins consider trading Park if they believe Vargas is the superior DH/1B? Park's remaining contract would actually be a good reason for another team to trade for him.

In an ideal world, Park and Vargas are locked in at 1B/DH and Mauer is on his way out.

[Brandon Warne]

Wrote about Vargas Friday night. I'm buying in more now than before: 

 

http://coldomaha.com/2016/twins/kennys-vargas-credits-chad-allen-mechanical-consistency-and-patience-in-resurgence/

[bluechipper]

I like the improved discipline at the plate and hopefully that continues. Also, happy 26th birthday, Kennys!

[ThejacKmp]

 

Or I would look to upgrade the 1B/DH position overall for 2017, One of Vargas/Mauer can take one of the spots, but with the other spot I would prefer they take a run at an impact bat like Trump or Encarnacion.
 

 

If they sign Trump I'm cheering for the Blue Jays.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Is Vargas playing better than in his previous MLB opportunities? Yes. But realistically you have to look at the whole picture, good and bad, from more than 70 PAs.

 

No, you don't have to look at the whole picture.  He's not approaching at-bats like he did a year ago.  Do I think he's a 1.000+ OPS player?  Probably not, but I'd like to watch this new approach the rest of the season.

 

Frankly, we don't have the data yet to suggest anything, trend or fad.  A lot of young players flounder before finding themselves, I don't hold their early struggles against them if they adjust and thrive.  We just need to see if Vargas can maintain this.

 

I hope so, the kid is fun to see in the lineup.