Vargas 2.0

[SwainZag]

 

He is on pace for 40 HR this year, there is no reason why he still can't be just as good as he is today for the next 2-3 years. His power can last until he is 36.

 

A big assumption when you are talking about $20M a season.

[drivlikejehu]

 

No, you don't have to look at the whole picture.  He's not approaching at-bats like he did a year ago.  Do I think he's a 1.000+ OPS player?  Probably not, but I'd like to watch this new approach the rest of the season.

 

Frankly, we don't have the data yet to suggest anything, trend or fad.  A lot of young players flounder before finding themselves, I don't hold their early struggles against them if they adjust and thrive.  We just need to see if Vargas can maintain this.

 

I hope so, the kid is fun to see in the lineup.

 

We have some data. We know that he has spent the majority of 2016 in AAA, where he had a fairly pedestrian RC+ of 128 for a 25-year old DH with MLB experience. We know he strikes out a fair amount and is a very slow runner, yet currently has a BABIP of .410. So we know that his average is going to drop a lot. 

 

What we don't know is whether he has permanently changed his batted-ball profile in a way that will produce significantly more fly balls than in the past. We also don't know whether pitchers will re-adjust and, if so, how Vargas will respond. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

What we don't know is whether he has permanently changed his batted-ball profile in a way that will produce significantly more fly balls than in the past. We also don't know whether pitchers will re-adjust and, if so, how Vargas will respond. 

 

Right, so we keep observing and keep giving him ABs.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Right, so we keep observing and keep giving him ABs.

 

I didn't suggest otherwise. The subject of the thread has been whether Vargas is having a breakout, not whether he should be replaced at DH. There's a very good chance he's at least league average at the plate, which is poor for a DH but not exactly an atrocity, especially for a team on track for ~95 losses.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I didn't suggest otherwise. The subject of the thread has been whether Vargas is having a breakout, not whether he should be replaced at DH. There's a very good chance he's at least league average at the plate, which is poor for a DH but not exactly an atrocity, especially for a team on track for ~95 losses.

 

The problem came when you tried to minimize his results by calling it a "hot streak" which implies fluke.  His numbers might be inflated, but 60 some ABs isn't much to go off of.  What is clear is that he's taking a different approach and it may well yield better results over the long term.  Only time will tell.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The problem came when you tried to minimize his results by calling it a "hot streak" which implies fluke.  His numbers might be inflated, but 60 some ABs isn't much to go off of.  What is clear is that he's taking a different approach and it may well yield better results over the long term.  Only time will tell.

 

Are you saying he's not on a hot streak? Seriously?

 

Do you believe he can maintain a .410 BABIP? If not, what BABIP do you think he can maintain?

 

I'm just baffled how it could be a "problem" to point out basic facts that aren't even criticisms. Babe Ruth had a career BABIP of 340!

[TheLeviathan]

 

Are you saying he's not on a hot streak? Seriously?

 

Do you believe he can maintain a .410 BABIP? If not, what BABIP do you think he can maintain?

 

I'm just baffled how it could be a "problem" to point out basic facts that aren't even criticisms. Babe Ruth had a career BABIP of 340!

 

Saying there is "no evidence" of this being anything other than a hot streak is not a basic fact.  What is hot streak and what is a sustainable change in his approach aren't clear yet.  

[drivlikejehu]

 

Saying there is "no evidence" of this being anything other than a hot streak is not a basic fact.  What is hot streak and what is a sustainable change in his approach aren't clear yet.  

 

Yeah, it is a fact. Over the sample size in question, it's actually not that unlikely for a roughly league-average hitter to post crazy numbers. 

 

That's just how baseball works . . . Dozier is an above average hitter, but still, he's had some very dramatic highs and lows. Look at what Danny Santana did in his rookie season, and he can't even hit.

 

Vargas' current run tells us very little. Players have hot streaks all the time that don't amount to anything long-term. His rookie year he had a RC+ of 114. Maybe that's his true ability and he just had a sophomore slump. Maybe he's really good now and can sustain 125. Maybe he will actually settle in at 100 or 105.

 

The two things I'm looking at is flyball % and strikeout %. The BABIP is noise.

[jorgenswest]

I'd go with the guy who not only might be better, but comes with a 40 some odd million dollar discount.

If the contracts were the same would it change your mind?

 

They are spending the same money for Vargas, Park and Mauer. You might need to throw Sano in there if 3B isn't an option. Now they just need to pick the best two.

[jorgenswest]

Yeah, it is a fact. Over the sample size in question, it's actually not that unlikely for a roughly league-average hitter to post crazy numbers. 

 

That's just how baseball works . . . Dozier is an above average hitter, but still, he's had some very dramatic highs and lows. Look at what Danny Santana did in his rookie season, and he can't even hit.

 

Vargas' current run tells us very little. Players have hot streaks all the time that don't amount to anything long-term. His rookie year he had a RC+ of 114. Maybe that's his true ability and he just had a sophomore slump. Maybe he's really good now and can sustain 125. Maybe he will actually settle in at 100 or 105.

 

The two things I'm looking at is flyball % and strikeout %. The BABIP is noise.

Don't look at his current run. Look at the entire three year run with the good and the bad.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Vargas' current run tells us very little. 

 

Right, that's my point.  Only time will tell if his adjustment has changed his production expectations.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Right, that's my point.  Only time will tell if his adjustment has changed his production expectations.

 

Well, then I'm mystified by why you took issue with my statement that:

 

"I don't see any evidence that the current run is anything more than a hot streak by a player with average hitting ability . . ."

 

That's the exact same statement that you just said is your point. I don't see enough evidence to change my evaluation of Vargas as an average MLB hitter (which isn't bad, by the way, except that Vargas can't play defense). Average hitters go on hot streaks all the time. 

 

I can't figure out a single aspect of anything I said that you actually disagree with. Not sure why you strained to turn agreement into disagreement.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well, then I'm mystified by why you took issue with my statement that:

 

Because you apparently drew enough evidence to declare his future production as a subpar DH.  If this isn't evidence of anything, we should hold judgment.  You apparently have decided his future looks like his past despite there being a small sample that may indicate a change in that.  

 

His future production is up in the air - in a good way.  Not a "lets go back to his 2015 production and call him that" sort of up in the air.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Because you apparently drew enough evidence to declare his future production as a subpar DH.  If this isn't evidence of anything, we should hold judgment.  You apparently have decided his future looks like his past despite there being a small sample that may indicate a change in that.  

 

His future production is up in the air - in a good way.  Not a "lets go back to his 2015 production and call him that" sort of up in the air.

 

That's a complete fabrication. I never predicted his future at all in this thread. I only said what I just re-posted, that I didn't see evidence that he had elevated his game. That's not 'predicting the future,' it's withholding judgment, and it's tremendously hypocritical to misconstrue that after preaching about "fairness" in commenting earlier in the day.

[twinsnorth49]

The premise of the original post was that Vargas has very clearly made some adjustments to his swing and overall approach at the plate. So far it's met with success, sure it's a hot streak, and? It will be his last? All good hitters go through streaks, lots of them.

 

Time will tell with Vargas, as it does with any player. Statistics aside, he appears to be approaching things that are giving him a better chance at success. Right now the stats just happen to be matching the eye test. That doesn't mean the eye test is wrong.

[TheTruth]

 

The premise of the original post was that Vargas has very clearly made some adjustments to his swing and overall approach at the plate. So far it's met with success, sure it's a hot streak, and? It will be his last? All good hitters go through streaks, lots of them.

Time will tell with Vargas, as it does with any player. Statistics aside, he appears to be approaching things that are giving him a better chance at success. Right now the stats just happen to be matching the eye test. That doesn't mean the eye test is wrong.

Agree. If you watch the games, you will see he has drastically changed his approach. Sustainable? Only more ABs will answer that. It's not as if the Twins can't afford an experiment or two at this stage of a brutal season.

 

I wonder what goes on in Vargas's head. He makes a concerted effort to deal with previous flaws in his game. It seems to be working. More playing time? Nope. I wouldn't blame him if he is thinking that Arcia was correct. Forget about good ABs and taking a pitch or two. Swing for the fences baby and don't worry about K's or batting average.

[Mr. Brooks]

He looks good... the 1 day per week that Molitor lets him play.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He looks good... the 1 day per week that Molitor lets him play.

Can he play twice on that 1 day if we have a doubleheader?

[DocBauer]

Milb success never guarantees anything at the ML, of course. But it can be used as a loose form of barometer as to a prospects abilities and possible future. If you examine Vargas's Milburn track record, you will see constant progress through the ranks, the ability to hit and get OB with quality 700+ OPS and I believe we or 3 years of 800.

 

He showed a well rounded approach, not just a big strong masher with high SO totals. His 2014 debut was as encouraging as his 2015 was discouraging. I believe what we are seeing now is a return to basics and a better approach at the plate.

 

Is it still SSS? Yes. Has he been a little hot? Probably. But then again, as stated, all players go through streaks. What's encouraging is decent contact and good BBC totals, not necessarily the CBS hits.

[DocBauer]

XB hits*

[Jham]

When he first came up and mashed, I thought he looked quicker to the ball. Smalley commented on that. Then last week I watched him, mired in a mini-slump and it looked like he had a slight hitch again.  

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/min/video/v1038645783/houmin-vargas-hits-two-homers-for-the-twins/?affiliateId=clubMEGAMENU

Here's the clips of his HR's.  You can see from both sides of the plate, he brings his hands back noticeably before beginning his swing.  Not the biggest deal in the world, may help him with timing and loading, but it's significant and detriment when he gets tired/lazy/aggressive and his swing lengthens.  Not surprisingly, both HR came on off speed.  Both swings were fairly quick to the ball once his hands were in position, with his swing from the left side being a little loopy and long (but generates a ton of power) while his swing from the right side was picture perfect as far as plane, and staying compact.  Coincidentally or by necessarily, his hitch is shorter with the longer swing from the left.  

Hand placement can be tinkered with rather easily without changing the swing. Cudduyer's career took off when he lowered his hands to get into position sooner.  There's hope and reason for optimism, but as others have posted, this isn't much we haven't seen before.

[Willihammer]

Wow, I got the exact opposite. The LH swing is a bit longer but he's a slugger, he should be loading low and finishing high. He should be uppercutting and pivoting over his front heel, his weight back. Thome did it, Sano does it, Ortiz does it. That's the swing I'd like to see more of. Only red flag is that he doesnt' get his foot down til well after the ball's released. Might need to tone down the leg kick or else get it down sooner if it causes him to be late on heaters.

 

On the right side, he starts with his hands up by his ears and finishes at about armpit level. Its the tomahawk stroke. He was able to get this one in the air but that doesn't look like a great way to get lift. And, he finished with his weight over his front foot. You can see his ankle buckle even (granted it was an offspeed ptich). Much less of a slugger's stroke IMO.

[Mr. Brooks]

Can he play twice on that 1 day if we have a doubleheader?

Apparently not.

2 HR's gets him a spot on the bench.

I was waffling a bit after posting back and forth with Jack, and watching the Antony interview.

But no, no, no. This whole FO and field staff needs a severe shake up.

[TheTruth]

 

Apparently not.
2 HR's gets him a spot on the bench.
I was waffling a bit after posting back and forth with Jack, and watching the Antony interview.
But no, no, no. This whole FO and field staff needs a severe shake up.

lol why does this not surprise me. 

 

Loved Molitor as a player, but he's not a Manager. Maybe in a few years, but not now.