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Max Kepler

John Kelsey

By John Kelsey
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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gunnarthor MVP

gunnarthor

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Soooo, if Bill Smith was a bad GM, but was still retained after being fired, why didn't they just put him in charge of the International signings and budget? That seemed to be something he was good at, aside from that one time in Asia.

Well, I don't think Smith personally scouted anyone.  He just ok'd the budget to spend.  I believe he made it more of a priority than Ryan did but it probably wasn't that simple - the article on Sano's signing mentioned that it took years for the agent to feel comfortable with the Twins.

 

In any event, that was a hell of a signing class - Sano, Polanco and Kepler.  International scouting evaluators will be mentioning that one for a while. 

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John Kelsey FCL Twins

John Kelsey

Verified Member
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Kepler has become one of my favorite Twins. He just keeps improving. Even if he has a sophomore slump next year guys like Rosario, Sano, and possibly Buxton should take some of the pressure off of Kepler next year.

 

I'm not sure what a slump looks like for him though with how great his K/BB rates are. 

i guess I could see his power numbers taking a step backwards but I don't see his batting average and OBP ever being much lower than they are right now. 

Loosey FCL Twins

Loosey

Verified Member
Posted
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Last season after seeing some highlights of him in the minors I said he reminds me of Shawn Green.  His swing so smooth, combined with his plate discipline I don't see big slumps for him. 

 

BTW: 

 

Shawn Green's Career 162 Game (Avg) Line:  .283/.355/.494 27 HR 37 Doubles

 

Kepler's 162 Game Projection (Avg): .252/.326/.533    35 HR 32 Doubles

 

 

jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

Verified Member
Posted
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Last season after seeing some highlights of him in the minors I said he reminds me of Shawn Green.  His swing so smooth, combined with his plate discipline I don't see big slumps for him. 

 

BTW: 

 

Shawn Green's Career 162 Game (Avg) Line:  .283/.355/.494 27 HR 37 Doubles

 

Kepler's 162 Game Projection (Avg): .252/.326/.533    35 HR 32 Doubles

that seems to be a good comparison.  and now that you say it, I completely see it.

ScrapTheNickname FCL Twins

ScrapTheNickname

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

We can thank Andy Johnson, the Twins Norway-based scout, for first noticing Kepler. Good article from 2009 which I don't remember reading. 14-15 other teams flew over to Germany to see him. Seems the Twins development plan shone above the others.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/7117716//

 

And this from Mr-Baseball.com: "Andy Johnson: Played Baseball internationally in Europe and Australia. Served as head coach for the German League Cologne Cardinals and Norway’s Senior National Team. Covers European Baseball as a professional scout for the Minnesota Twins and is a development consultant with the Norwegian federation NSBF."

 

Andy must be very proud. And we're proud of him.

 

 

jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

Verified Member
Posted
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Kepler should have been in the opening day lineup and played every game since.
And, yes, I said that from the start.

raising my hand.  said the same thing.  of course, I didn't have Rosario in my desired starting OF (though I said I'd like the defense of Buxton, Rosario and Kepler when they were out there)..

stringer bell Cooperstown

stringer bell

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

With the season well underway (more than 100 games) and the Twins out of contention for anything but a high draft choice, I checked the stats for AL Rookie of the Year candidates. I found three who have been great:  Kepler, the Tribe's Naquin and Michael Fulmer of the Tigers.

 

Naquin vs. Kepler is interesting. Naquin is hitting well over .300 and has an OPS in excess of 1.000, that is superstar territory. Kepler has his OPS over .900, and leads all AL rookies in HR and RBI. Kepler has a slightly higher WAR. Bonus for Naquin--he's playing for a contender.

 

Fulmer is a wild card. He's been great--9-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 84 Ks in 97+ innings. The Tigers have to be considered contenders, as well.

 

Fulmer might make the "qualified" level for pitchers. He has averaged just over 6 IP per start and has probably 11 starts remaining, he'd had to average about 6 and a half innings per start. It doesn't appear Naquin or Kepler will get enough at-bats to qualify (FWIW). Neither hits on the top of the order and they both are at about 250 PAs.

nytwinsfan FCL Twins

nytwinsfan

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

With the season well underway (more than 100 games) and the Twins out of contention for anything but a high draft choice, I checked the stats for AL Rookie of the Year candidates. I found three who have been great:  Kepler, the Tribe's Naquin and Michael Fulmer of the Tigers.

 

Naquin vs. Kepler is interesting. Naquin is hitting well over .300 and has an OPS in excess of 1.000, that is superstar territory. Kepler has his OPS over .900, and leads all AL rookies in HR and RBI. Kepler has a slightly higher WAR. Bonus for Naquin--he's playing for a contender.

 

Fulmer is a wild card. He's been great--9-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 84 Ks in 97+ innings. The Tigers have to be considered contenders, as well.

 

Fulmer might make the "qualified" level for pitchers. He has averaged just over 6 IP per start and has probably 11 starts remaining, he'd had to average about 6 and a half innings per start. It doesn't appear Naquin or Kepler will get enough at-bats to qualify (FWIW). Neither hits on the top of the order and they both are at about 250 PAs.

Odds are Kepler will close on Naquin. The former's Babip is low and the latter's high by quite a bit

wxman91 Prep Ball

wxman91

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

With the season well underway (more than 100 games) and the Twins out of contention for anything but a high draft choice, I checked the stats for AL Rookie of the Year candidates. I found three who have been great:  Kepler, the Tribe's Naquin and Michael Fulmer of the Tigers.

 

Naquin vs. Kepler is interesting. Naquin is hitting well over .300 and has an OPS in excess of 1.000, that is superstar territory. Kepler has his OPS over .900, and leads all AL rookies in HR and RBI. Kepler has a slightly higher WAR. Bonus for Naquin--he's playing for a contender.

 

Fulmer is a wild card. He's been great--9-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 84 Ks in 97+ innings. The Tigers have to be considered contenders, as well.

 

Fulmer might make the "qualified" level for pitchers. He has averaged just over 6 IP per start and has probably 11 starts remaining, he'd had to average about 6 and a half innings per start. It doesn't appear Naquin or Kepler will get enough at-bats to qualify (FWIW). Neither hits on the top of the order and they both are at about 250 PAs.

 

That's funny, I did the same exact thing last night and perhaps not surprisingly, came up with the same three.  Kepler is a firm 3rd right now in the race, but with two months to go anything can happen.

Halsey Hall FCL Twins

Halsey Hall

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Having watched Max since he came to the states I had hopes for a MLB career for him. He started slow, injuries, etc and it took some time. I was thrilled when he got a cup of coffee last year, and when he came up this season. What he's doing now though was beyond my wildest dreams. He'll come back to earth but this has been a joy so far.  Gotta love his attitude.

nytwinsfan FCL Twins

nytwinsfan

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

FACT:

 

Among players with more than 230 PAs, Max Kepler has the fourth highest ISO.

 

1.Brandon Moss - .320

2.David Ortiz - .319

3.Jake Lamb - .305

4.Max Kepler - .302

. . .

42. Brian Dozier - .228

stringer bell Cooperstown

stringer bell

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Two thoughts on Kepler: I pretty much expected lots of doubles and triples, but not many balls over the fence. It appears to me that he's a more complete player than the more publicized Buxton and Sano.

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

 

Two thoughts on Kepler: I pretty much expected lots of doubles and triples, but not many balls over the fence. It appears to me that he's a more complete player than the more publicized Buxton and Sano.

Right. This. And how he's been going, he'd be on my untouchables list.

Major League Ready Wichita Wind Surge

Major League Ready

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Yep, .264 for Kepler and .437 for Naquin. I wouldn't be surprised to see Naquin's numbers collapse in the final two months.

 

Yep, .264 for Kepler and .437 for Naquin. I wouldn't be surprised to see Naquin's numbers collapse in the final two months.

Kepler has a great eye at the plate.  This came up quite a bit even when he was in the minors.  That attribute really helps sustain performance.  He also is about to see a change in pitching approach.  It will be intere4sting to see how he handles it.  I was a big believer and very excited to see him at the big league level based on the reports last year.  He has been a breath of fresh air.  Max could be the 3 hole hitter we have lacked ever since Mauer started to fade.  That's really good news.

jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Looking at Fangraphs, I filtered the stats for rookies only.  Out of 39 MLB rookie, Kepler ranks 6th in wRC+ 92nd in AL). There are 19 MLB rookies with a wRC+ of 100 or higher.

 

Buxton ranks 34 for MLB rookies (dead last in AL) in wRC+ with a 51. Park is ahead of him. Centeno is ahead of him.

 

There are a lot of young players getting it done at the MLB level.

bluechipper FCL Twins

bluechipper

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

Kepler has a great eye at the plate.  This came up quite a bit even when he was in the minors.  That attribute really helps sustain performance.  He also is about to see a change in pitching approach.  It will be intere4sting to see how he handles it.  I was a big believer and very excited to see him at the big league level based on the reports last year.  He has been a breath of fresh air.  Max could be the 3 hole hitter we have lacked ever since Mauer started to fade.  That's really good news.

He had a 69/68 BB/SO rate in the minors last year. His eye at the plate is a huge skill to have.

bluechipper FCL Twins

bluechipper

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

That article produced more questions than answers.  Thanks alot, Mike!  I just wanna be a homer when it comes to Kepler. 

I just read that article and my question is: What does any of this mean?

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

It means someone is trying to make a living spewing this stuff out.

 

Pretty insulting, frankly.

 

It means he's not likely to hit for this much power, unless he's an outlier.

diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

basically, he's saying that due to angle/exist velocity, Kepler shouldn't be able to do what he's been doing, and he questions if he can keep it up...

 

I think the one thing that needs to be considered is that Kep has really just started showing some power (second half of last season was when this started).  I wouldn't be shocked if part of this is that he's a kid that's filling out still and it's starting to show.  Whether or not he can be a consistent 30 HR type guy is certainly up for debate, but what he's doing right now is ridiculous.

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