Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

Chris
11:15 thoughts on Berrios this year?

 

Jeff Sullivan
11:15 Fresh start, cautiously optimistic.

[Thrylos]

 

 

10:51 I think the Twins can make it into the 20 - 25 range. Having a pitch-framer, at last, is going to help them
Granted, that would be value from the catcher, not the pitching staff, but we'll still be talking better K's and fewer walks

 

I hope he realizes that the Twins' pitching staff was 5th in the AL as far as walks go and 12th in Strikeouts.  Cannot compare AL and NL pitching staff because the latter face pitchers.  If indeed those numbers improve and the Twins get up a couple spots, like 3rd in BB and 10th in K, they will be right in the middle of the AL staff, not in the bottom.

Just sayin'

[Mike Sixel]

 

I hope he realizes that the Twins' pitching staff was 5th in the AL as far as walks go and 12th in Strikeouts.  Cannot compare AL and NL pitching staff because the latter face pitchers.  If indeed those numbers improve and the Twins get up a couple spots, like 3rd in BB and 10th in K, they will be right in the middle of the AL staff, not in the bottom.

Just sayin'

 

in fairness, I asked about ALL OF BASEBALL, and he answered it that way. 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

mike sixel
10:50 Will I ever be able to go golfing again, or does the rain never stop here? As for the Twins, odds the SP is not one of the five worst staffs this year?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:50 July through the middle of September are amazing!
Except lately Augusts have been too hot
sorry
10:51 I think the Twins can make it into the 20 - 25 range. Having a pitch-framer, at last, is going to help them
Granted, that would be value from the catcher, not the pitching staff, but we'll still be talking better K's and fewer walks

 

I used to work for a company in the Beaverton area.  I'll just say that Portland summers are very nice.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I used to work for a company in the Beaverton area.  I'll just say that Portland summers are very nice.

 

I was here last summer. Idyllic. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

I hope he realizes that the Twins' pitching staff was 5th in the AL as far as walks go and 12th in Strikeouts.  Cannot compare AL and NL pitching staff because the latter face pitchers.  If indeed those numbers improve and the Twins get up a couple spots, like 3rd in BB and 10th in K, they will be right in the middle of the AL staff, not in the bottom.

Just sayin'

 

The walks weren't too bad (although I see 8th in AL for BB/9 and 13th for K/9), the problem last year is that we gave up a lot of good contact in addition to the poor strikeout ability. Getting in more favorable counts should help, but framing won't stop guys from barreling up fat pitches or get your sub-par defense to convert outs. We had far and away the most hits and highest BABIP and HR/9 in the AL. We were teed off on.

[GP830]

To be fair to KLAW, I read his comment as he was the only one asserting that Berrios may not be a #2, and to not lump others into this stance, which may very well be incorrect. 

 

[ashbury]

Noah

10:05 Do you think Miguel Sano can stick at 3B?

 

Jeff Sullivan

10:05 For a few years

Pretty much all any of us is asking for.

[Vanimal46]

 

Pretty much all any of us is asking for.

Concur. Survive out there for 2 years, and transition to 1B/DH once Mauer is gone. We're all going to be much happier when he can settle in that spot for a decade. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

My best case scenario is Sano sticking at third through his age 27 season or so.

 

Past that, I don't see it happening. The guy is just too big.

[jimmer]

Chip: Will Buxton blossom or possibly become a DL frequent could have been?

 

Travis Sawchik: Blossom. The Trouts and Bryants have spoiled us … not every player has a smooth path to stardom

Chet: Do you think this is the season that Miguel Sano bursts onto the national scene? With 600 AB’s, I really don’t think a 40+ home run season is in play for Sano, do you agree?

 

Travis Sawchik: I don’t know where Sano is going to play, defensively, but I like the power-patience combo

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Who makes it to a playoff game first at some point Twins or the Reds? Why?

 

Travis Sawchik: Twins have Buxton and Sano, and their potential, and no Cubs in their neighborhood. That’s a better outlook, I think. I would have liked to have seen them add De Leon this offseason

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

My best case scenario is Sano sticking at third through his age 27 season or so.

 

Past that, I don't see it happening. The guy is just too big.

Agree. For whatever reasons, those guys from the D.R. seem to take on weight, regardless of who they are. And Sano already started as a freak. 

[Mike Sixel]

Twins Fan
12:03 do you think that stephen gonsalves slider has the chance to be an average pitch?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:04 I think given his slot/deception and the likelihood that it's used more heavily against lefties that it will play close to average.

 

The Decadent Moose
12:14 Jose Berrios wasn't on your Twins Prospect List evaluation. I'm not sure I've read your opinions on him and his somewhat disaster of a debut. I'd like to read what you have to offer.

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:15 Yeah, he exceeded rookie eligibility last year so not eligible for the list. I'm concerned because he was so horrendously bad but I don't think you just close to book on a guy who was once flashing three plus pitches.

[laloesch]

 

Twins Fan
12:03 do you think that stephen gonsalves slider has the chance to be an average pitch?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:04 I think given his slot/deception and the likelihood that it's used more heavily against lefties that it will play close to average.

 

The Decadent Moose
12:14 Jose Berrios wasn't on your Twins Prospect List evaluation. I'm not sure I've read your opinions on him and his somewhat disaster of a debut. I'd like to read what you have to offer.

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:15 Yeah, he exceeded rookie eligibility last year so not eligible for the list. I'm concerned because he was so horrendously bad but I don't think you just close to book on a guy who was once flashing three plus pitches.

 

I want to ask the question.  How is it that this kid who did so well in AAA with three plus pitches, struggle so mightily after being called up to the major league level.  Were not talking 3 or 4 starts but 14!  Can we really attribute that to all nerves or tipping of his pitches?  Even Trevor May when he first debuted had several bad to mediocre starts but started to turn it around after his 6 or 7 start.  Berrios showed no real improvement.  Could it be that he's just not that good and was the cream of a very bad latte of Twins pitching prospects who would be average to mediocre at best in another franchise?  I guess time will tell.  

[Mr. Brooks]

I want to ask the question. How is it that this kid who did so well in AAA with three plus pitches, struggle so mightily after being called up to the major league level. Were not talking 3 or 4 starts but 14! Can we really attribute that to all nerves or tipping of his pitches? Even Trevor May when he first debuted had several bad to mediocre starts but started to turn it around after his 6 or 7 start. Berrios showed no real improvement. Could it be that he's just not that good and was the cream of a very bad latte of Twins pitching prospects who would be average to mediocre at best in another franchise? I guess time will tell.

14 starts is still an extremely small sample size, IMO.

I don't think any less of Berrios than I did before he debuted.

[laloesch]

 

14 starts is still an extremely small sample size, IMO.
I don't think any less of Berrios than I did before he debuted.

 

 

I agree it's a small sample size but you have to wonder.

[nicksaviking]

 

14 starts is still an extremely small sample size, IMO.
I don't think any less of Berrios than I did before he debuted.

 

I also think a losing atmosphere and team-wide struggles are contagious. I don't know why, but I'd guess if you are surrounded by dejection and poor confidence you probably can fall victim to a self-fulfilling prophecy of similar nature.

 

I wonder how he would have done had he debuted in 2015 when the team was amped and in a pennant race? 2015 and 2016 were light and day for Duffey who basically got the spot most of us were hoping Berrios would grab.

[Thrylos]

 

14 starts is still an extremely small sample size, IMO.
I don't think any less of Berrios than I did before he debuted.

 

14 starts in the majors is an "extremely small sample size", and 17 in AAA is not?

[Linus]

Pitching a baseball is a lot like driving in golf or serving in tennis. Being out of synch even slightly makes for bad results. Certainly nerves or too much adrenaline could easily cause this. I would have waited before changing his delivery until he calmed down.

[Vanimal46]

Good news! 

12:59

Kevin: Best offensive/speed potential, long term : Buxton or Moncada?

 

12:59
Dave Cameron: Probably Buxton. Moncada is fast, but Buxton is faster.

[Vanimal46]

Fangraphs wrote an article "Your Stance On the Team Projections: American League" and have the Twins projected at 74-88. 

Check out the link to view the team summary and vote if they're on to something, or on something with these projections. 

[jimmer]

As everyone is complaining about projections, I thought it'd be important to throw this out there.  For what it'ss worth:

 

GERB: Do the projected standings take strength of schedule into account? I would think the CLE and DET would get a pump for playing 1/3 of their games against the Royals, Twins, and Whitesox

Dave Cameron: The projected standings do not include a schedule adjustment. The playoff odds, which will come out soon, will take schedule into account.

[Mr. Brooks]

14 starts in the majors is an "extremely small sample size", and 17 in AAA is not?

I don't believe I ever said that 17 in AAA was a large sample size.

[dougd]

Baseball America has an article on the top international prospect of 2017 (subscription needed), and according to the MLB traderumours summary,  the Rays and Twins are expected to land two of the top players in this year’s class: switch-hitting shortstops Wander Franco and Jelfrey Marte.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Baseball America has an article on the top international prospect of 2017 (subscription needed), and according to the MLB traderumours summary,  the Rays and Twins are expected to land two of the top players in this year’s class: switch-hitting shortstops Wander Franco and Jelfrey Marte.

Wait, which (Franco or Marte) are the Twins expected to land? Or they just know those two teams are likely to get those two players? I'm tempted to get a BA subscription just to read about this. 

 

EDIT* Looks like Rays are tied to Wander Franco:  http://www.draysbay.com/2017/2/21/14684532/rays-top-international-prospect-wander-franco and Twins tied to SS Jelfrey Marte: http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2017/02/news-and-notes-from-twins-spring_22.html

 

Anyone with a BA subscription care to tell us more about Marte? I found this video and seems like he has legit Defensive tools at the very least. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Does anyone know where I can get a hot itllian beef in MN?

Pappy's on Maryland Ave in Maplewood is my favorite

[Otto von Ballpark]

I found this to be a pretty good summary of the Twins position battles this spring:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/camp-battles-minnesota-twins.html

[Thrylos]

 

I found this to be a pretty good summary of the Twins position battles this spring:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/camp-battles-minnesota-twins.html

 

That is a bit off the mark.  Really there is not a short-stop battle and Santana is not a short stop.  There is a battle for a couple bench spaces maybe and that includes IFs and OFs.  eg. Drew Stubbs, who is not mentioned for some reason, is battling not only Santana, but Adrianza for a position.

 

Plus in indicates that there might be a chance that Perkins is ready for the season.  Right...

 

Waste of time really

[Thrylos]

 

 

Wait, which (Franco or Marte) are the Twins expected to land? Or they just know those two teams are likely to get those two players? I'm tempted to get a BA subscription just to read about this. 

 

EDIT* Looks like Rays are tied to Wander Franco:  http://www.draysbay.com/2017/2/21/14684532/rays-top-international-prospect-wander-franco and Twins tied to SS Jelfrey Marte: http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2017/02/news-and-notes-from-twins-spring_22.html

 

Anyone with a BA subscription care to tell us more about Marte? I found this video and seems like he has legit Defensive tools at the very least. 

 

Other than what I indicated in the above link, Ben Badler wrote that he has a very good glove.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I want to ask the question.  How is it that this kid who did so well in AAA with three plus pitches, struggle so mightily after being called up to the major league level.  Were not talking 3 or 4 starts but 14!  Can we really attribute that to all nerves or tipping of his pitches?  Even Trevor May when he first debuted had several bad to mediocre starts but started to turn it around after his 6 or 7 start.  Berrios showed no real improvement.  Could it be that he's just not that good and was the cream of a very bad latte of Twins pitching prospects who would be average to mediocre at best in another franchise?  I guess time will tell.  

I think its a few things. One, many struggle at first for various reasons while adjusting. Two, some pitchers abilities and pitches 'play up' in the minors, but not in the majors. Look at soft tossing LHP's with control in the minors and they dominate, but get pounded in the bigs. Shorter guys with straight fastballs often fall into this group, and Berrios fits that mold. I think he can be much better, but probably needs 'command' and filthier 'out pitch' to become what we had all hoped he would outcomes-wise. So, maybe one of those two things or a combo of both.