Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[nicksaviking]

 

Hot off the presses at Fangraphs, "Spring Training Divisional Outlook: AL Central"

 

Woo-hoo! Ahead of the White Sox!

 

Ha, this part had me laughing: "The Cleveland Indians were one of baseball’s biggest success stories in 2016. I have to admit that I kind of saw it coming. If you dig into ESPN Insider archives, you might find that I was the only one of 96 or so of their contributors who picked the Tribe to win the AL pennant."

 

I must admit, I am a genius.

 

It was a good write up, but that had to be the worst attempt at false humility I've ever read. Good stuff though!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Woo-hoo! Ahead of the White Sox!

 

Ha, this part had me laughing: "The Cleveland Indians were one of baseball’s biggest success stories in 2016. I have to admit that I kind of saw it coming. If you dig into ESPN Insider archives, you might find that I was the only one of 96 or so of their contributors who picked the Tribe to win the AL pennant."

 

I must admit, I am a genius.

 

It was a good write up, but that had to be the worst attempt at false humility I've ever read. Good stuff though!

 

i didn't think it was false humility, I read it as " i got lucky on this one"....and ya, a bit of not humble bragging. More like, "hey, look, at least I got one right!"....but I can see how you read it the way you did.

 

I commented that I didn't agree MN was dedicated to youth....

[Mike Sixel]

Gest
12:45 Do you buy sano's projections? They are a little loftier than I expected

 

Eno Sarris
12:45 He has elite power. My question is how many plate appearances he'll have and I'm not sure he's injury prone. He might be.

[drjim]

 

I commented that I didn't agree MN was dedicated to youth....

 

I assume he gave this the hearing it deserved.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I assume he gave this the hearing it deserved.

 

Nice. What evidence do you have they are going young?

 

the 41 yo dh they tried to sign?

Gimenez on the roster?

vogelsgang maybe on the roster?

All the young RPs promoted to the roster?

all the off season talk about adding veteran leadership?

 

And, they authors rarely reply, only a couple do.

[drjim]

 

Nice. What evidence do you have they are going young?

 

the 41 yo dh they tried to sign?

Gimenez on the roster?

vogelsgang maybe on the roster?

All the young RPs promoted to the roster?

all the off season talk about adding veteran leadership?

 

And, they authors rarely reply, only a couple do.

 

They aren't ripping it to the studs (and they shouldn't), but 6 guys in the lineup and 2-3 bench players, 2 starters out of the top 6, and 2-3 relievers (at least) are in the pre-arb time frame. That's a pretty big youth movement.

 

It's a mistake to force young guys on to the big league roster before they are ready. Even teams going full youth rebuild will still have several veterans as placeholders, and I am in favor of having those veterans be as good as possible and positive influences.

 

Vogelsong won't be on the roster unless the young guys flop and/or there is another injury or two. In that case it is good to have him in camp on a minor league deal.

 

The relievers will make it when they are ready. Signing one vet on a one year contract doesn't change that.

 

The front office needs a couple years to squeeze out the inherited mistakes and they also want some vets so they don't have to rush prospects to the bigs before they are ready. I fully endorse this.

 

On a final point, even with all the complaints, they will definitely be in the youngest third and likely one of the 4-5 youngest rosters to start the season.

 

So yes, I imagine he didn't gave that comment much of a hearing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

They aren't ripping it to the studs (and they shouldn't), but 6 guys in the lineup and 2-3 bench players, 2 starters out of the top 6, and 2-3 relievers (at least) are in the pre-arb time frame. That's a pretty big youth movement.

 

It's a mistake to force young guys on to the big league roster before they are ready. Even teams going full youth rebuild will still have several veterans as placeholders, and I am in favor of having those veterans be as good as possible and positive influences.

 

Vogelsong won't be on the roster unless the young guys flop and/or there is another injury or two. In that case it is good to have him in camp on a minor league deal.

 

The relievers will make it when they are ready. Signing one vet on a one year contract doesn't change that.

 

The front office needs a couple years to squeeze out the inherited mistakes and they also want some vets so they don't have to rush prospects to the bigs before they are ready. I fully endorse this.

 

On a final point, even with all the complaints, they will definitely be in the youngest third and likely one of the 4-5 youngest rosters to start the season.

 

So yes, I imagine he didn't gave that comment much of a hearing.

 

I'll take that bet on being one of the 5 youngest teams to start the year.

 

edit: And who did this FO ADD this off season? 

[Mike Sixel]

bernie
1:27 Eddie Rosario has 828 at bats over two years with 23 HR and .268 average. I understand the horrible plate discipline. But he's starting for Minnesota. Why isn't he a $15 player?

 

Eno Sarris
1:28 Also gives back value in other ways, has been popped for PEDs, doesn't seem to have the trust of his team, funky swing... But yeah, he's interesting this year.

[drjim]

 

I'll take that bet on being one of the 5 youngest teams to start the year.

 

edit: And who did this FO ADD this off season? 

 

Let's tag this post then. I think they'll be in the 5ish range to start the season.

 

They added much needed catcher(s), a placeholder in the pen and depth to cover the young players on milb deals or waiver claims. Makes a ton of sense. Other than Dozier, didn't have a ton to move in the offseason, so they weren't likely to add much in young talent.

[Squirrel]

 

bernie
1:27 Eddie Rosario has 828 at bats over two years with 23 HR and .268 average. I understand the horrible plate discipline. But he's starting for Minnesota. Why isn't he a $15 player?

 

Eno Sarris
1:28 Also gives back value in other ways, has been popped for PEDs, doesn't seem to have the trust of his team, funky swing... But yeah, he's interesting this year.

Um ... PEDs? I thought it was for a banned substance that wasn't PEDs.

[drjim]

 

Um ... PEDs? I thought it was for a banned substance that wasn't PEDs.

 

[Squirrel]

 

I was trying for subtlety rather than being explicit.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Um ... PEDs? I thought it was for a banned substance that wasn't PEDs.

 

meh, a quick comment in a chat being close by not quite, doesn't bother me much.....but yes.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Let's tag this post then. I think they'll be in the 5ish range to start the season.

 

They added much needed catcher(s), a placeholder in the pen and depth to cover the young players on milb deals or waiver claims. Makes a ton of sense. Other than Dozier, didn't have a ton to move in the offseason, so they weren't likely to add much in young talent.

 

It would appear that not one RP will make the roster from the minors to start the year. It's even possible Chargois won't. I just can't see how that is consistent with a youth movement at all.

[drjim]

 

It would appear that not one RP will make the roster from the minors to start the year. It's even possible Chargois won't. I just can't see how that is consistent with a youth movement at all.

 

Agree it is unfortunate none of the young RPs have performed well enough to make the team. But if Rogers and Tonkin make it, that is 2 that are still pre-arb.

 

And for pitching much more than lineup, it is who is on the roster throughout the season that matters.

[GP830]

 

Nice. What evidence do you have they are going young?

 

the 41 yo dh they tried to sign?

 

Wait- who was the 41 year old DH? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Esco walks ... bases loaded ... 1 out ... JR Murphy up ...

 

wrong thread?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wait- who was the 41 year old DH? 

 

Mike Napoli. They offered him more money than TX....who I guess is only 35. My bad. Like that's all that different.....

[nicksaviking]

 

Agree it is unfortunate none of the young RPs have performed well enough to make the team. But if Rogers and Tonkin make it, that is 2 that are still pre-arb.

 

And for pitching much more than lineup, it is who is on the roster throughout the season that matters.

 

When did Chargois not perform well? He was good down the stretch last year.

 

Or are we basing it off of spring training stats. Because if we are than Vogelsong, Santiago, Hughes and Belisle should be out of a job also.

[Squirrel]

 

wrong thread?

Oops ... yup ... moved it.

[Taildragger8791]

 

When did Chargois not perform well? He was good down the stretch last year.

 

Or are we basing it off of spring training stats. Because if we are than Vogelsong, Santiago, Hughes and Belisle should be out of a job also.

 

Chargois scuffled a little bit to start out but he found his groove the last month or so of the year. And by scuffled I don't mean he gave up a lot of runs, but his strikeouts were uncharacteristically low and he gave up a lot of baserunners. Not that bad, just a little shaky.

[drjim]

Hey, I want Chargois to make it. But he isn't going to be sent down for giggles, it'll be in merit.

[drjim]

Youth movement is a slogan, not a strategy. I'm sure the front office would love to have all the young guys earn spots and perform well, but if they aren't ready and aren't performing it's prudent to have someone else ready to be a placeholder.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Youth movement is a slogan, not a strategy. I'm sure the front office would love to have all the young guys earn spots and perform well, but if they aren't ready and aren't performing it's prudent to have someone else ready to be a placeholder.

 

Disagree. completely. choosing to put one of your two mid-20s catchers at backup, to see what you have and let them learn here, is a strategy. choosing to promote pitchers younger, before they get hurt and while they throw harder, like I read other teams are doing, is a strategy. Trading off veterans for youth, is a strategy.

 

[drjim]

Disagree. completely. choosing to put one of your two mid-20s catchers at backup, to see what you have and let them learn here, is a strategy. choosing to promote pitchers younger, before they get hurt and while they throw harder, like I read other teams are doing, is a strategy. Trading off veterans for youth, is a strategy.

The catcher decision hasn't been made, but are we really lamenting the potential absence of John Ryan Murphy? Mitch Garver will get his shot at some point, they did put him on the 40 man. But what evidence exists that he is ready for the bigs? They know what they have.

 

That point about pitching, while oft repeated, is more myth than reality from all I have observed from all teams.

 

I'll grant no Dozier trade, but can't force something that isn't there.

 

The Twins really are playing a lot of young guys to start the season, and they got a handful waiting in the wings. But the talent level in the minors has dipped a little, so it's wise not to force what isn't there.

[nicksaviking]

 

Hey, I want Chargois to make it. But he isn't going to be sent down for giggles, it'll be in merit.

 

 

OK, but why do only young guys have to earn their spot based on merit?

[drjim]

OK, but why do only young guys have to earn their spot based on merit?

Among other reasons is that they have minor league options.

 

If you start with the vet and he sucks or gets hurt, you can jettison him for the young guy. If the young guy sucks or gets hurt you have already cut loose a potential replacement.

 

There is a little more leeway with relievers because they have more in the minors. If Chargois performs well enough to be in the bigs, they'll take him north. The spot is right there for him. Take it!

 

I don't think Vogelsong makes it unless Mejia and Berrios both implode down the stretch. His roster spot would be by default.

[Han Joelo]

Pretty good Q and A with Levine on MLB.com in case you missed it:

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/219445186/twins-gm-thad-levine-on-analytics-philosophy/

 

 

 

  Two parter, that is the second.  Talks about a lot, touches on why they didn't make more radical changes (yet), the value of guys like Hunter, Hawkins, and Cuddyer coaching in spring, Sano's swagger, and Buxton's quiet confidence.

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

bernie
1:27 Eddie Rosario has 828 at bats over two years with 23 HR and .268 average. I understand the horrible plate discipline. But he's starting for Minnesota. Why isn't he a $15 player?

 

Eno Sarris
1:28 Also gives back value in other ways, has been popped for PEDs, doesn't seem to have the trust of his team, funky swing... But yeah, he's interesting this year.

 

That's why the opinion of some of the ignorant national writers is worthless and should not be heard:  They cannot even get their facts straight.  I stopped reading after the PEDs and I'd take whatever Sarris says about other subjects he does not apparently know about, with a huge grain of salt.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Youth movement is a slogan, not a strategy. I'm sure the front office would love to have all the young guys earn spots and perform well, but if they aren't ready and aren't performing it's prudent to have someone else ready to be a placeholder.

It can be a darn catchy slogan, though!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKvNtAVZyOc