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Mike Sixel

By Mike Sixel
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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ShouldaCouldaWoulda Draft Eligible

ShouldaCouldaWoulda

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Good news! 

12:59

Kevin: Best offensive/speed potential, long term : Buxton or Moncada?

 

12:59
Dave Cameron: Probably Buxton. Moncada is fast, but Buxton is faster.

Depends what you mean by speed. I think the lanky speed guys are better in the OF, but the more but the built speed guys are usually 'quicker' when it comes to getting jumps while stealing. 

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ShouldaCouldaWoulda Draft Eligible

ShouldaCouldaWoulda

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Wait, which (Franco or Marte) are the Twins expected to land? Or they just know those two teams are likely to get those two players? I'm tempted to get a BA subscription just to read about this. 

 

EDIT* Looks like Rays are tied to Wander Franco:  http://www.draysbay.com/2017/2/21/14684532/rays-top-international-prospect-wander-franco and Twins tied to SS Jelfrey Marte: http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2017/02/news-and-notes-from-twins-spring_22.html

 

Anyone with a BA subscription care to tell us more about Marte? I found this video and seems like he has legit Defensive tools at the very least. 

I want us to get the 19 year old Cuban phenom!

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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from last week:

 

12:36
Mike: Are you investing in Kennys Vargas? With Park out of the way and a clearer path to playing time, he seems like a cheap source of power as a bench/util bat. When I compare his batted ball profile and plate discipline to Sano’s in 2016, there are a lot of similarities with HR/FB% and hard hit rate. While I agree the ceiling is higher for Sano, the avg pick for Sano via NFBC is 116 and Vargas is at 460. That’s a big gap, especially in redraft leagues.

 

12:36
Eno Sarris: He’s a great sleeper. Big Barrels% guy. Actually doesn’t reach much either. Just has some issues with contact, but not so bad that he can’t play in the bigs.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Zack
12:07 Which players do you think will have breakout year this year?

 

Travis Sawchik
12:09 Buxton is a popular pick, and I think he's going to establish himself as a quality regular with more room for growth....

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Eno's Hair Is
12:56 Sweet! Is Berrios capable of being a top shelf starter with his stuff or even if he figures it out is he going to be a 4ish ERA guy?

 

Eno Sarris
12:57 I see top shelf upside. Floor is... real low.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Pete
1:01 Should Byungho Park owners rejoice or look for a sucker in our league to trade him to before he turns back into a pumpkin?

 

Eno Sarris
1:01 Nobody's buying. Just hold and hope that something definitive starts happening between him and Kennys.

bird College Ball

bird

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These were interesting to read as well.

 

Those WERE interesting. I especially appreciated the comments of Williams from the Reds and Zaidi from the Dodgers, because both guys spoke about what a FO can't control. So much of what dictates the course for these teams is unpredictable, especially the sustainability of performance of players. Mauer and Morneau as examples in the case of the Twins.

bird College Ball

bird

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KATOH HATES strikeouts.....and Granite has a great SB%, Buxton, not so much.

 

Sigh, since someone will say it, Yes, we ALL know you can't scout the stat line....

 

 

Um, I can think of a couple of people that actually DON'T know that... ;)

 

 

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
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Three Twins make the KATOH loves them, but no one has them in their top 100 list! And one makes the 2nd team.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2017-all-katoh-team/

 

Basically the same complaint for Arraez and Granite; no power projection.

 

My two cents, it's easier for us to say the Twins need a shortstop, or the Twins need a catcher. I think we should be saying the Twins need a leadoff hitter. They need a Luis Castillo or Denard Span. One of these guys or Buxton or Polanco, I don't care. To throw their hat in the ring though Arraez or Granite might have to get a bit better at taking walks because I don't think another Ben Revere is the answer.

 

Granite looks like a better bet to take pitches based on what he did in 2015, but he did take a step back in the BB department last year.

Guest

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Basically the same complaint for Arraez and Granite; no power projection.

 

My two cents, it's easier for us to say the Twins need a shortstop, or the Twins need a catcher. I think we should be saying the Twins need a leadoff hitter. They need a Luis Castillo or Denard Span. One of these guys or Buxton or Polanco, I don't care. To throw their hat in the ring though Arraez or Granite might have to get a bit better at taking walks because I don't think another Ben Revere is the answer.

 

Granite looks like a better bet to take pitches based on what he did in 2015, but he did take a step back in the BB department last year.

Another Ben Revere as a fourth outfielder, making $500K a year? Sounds great to me! A lot of teams seem to want to trade for the actual Ben Revere, as at least a platoon starter, to help make the playoffs, but, hey, maybe there's no room on a team that lost 100+ games and has two outfielders who had less than 1.0 WAR last year, despite one of them having the offensive month of his life.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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John Jones
1:01 Trumbo, Dozier, Longo.. biggest chance of a repeat season?

 

Travis Sawchik
1:01 I think Dozier is going to be really good again

 

Trainman
1:02 Does Park steal the DH in Minnesota from Vargas? He's hit well early. They both should be playing, but Mauer's albatross contract certainly complicates things. In my opinion, one of the worst contracts in the game besides Pujols.

 

Travis Sawchik
1:02 That Mauer contract certainly complicates things. Long-term deals with tall catchers should probably be avoided

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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9:20
Mel Clark: Which is more likely this season: Byron Buxton has a 20/20 season or Miguel Sano hits 40 HR’s?

 

9:20
Paul Swydan: Buxton
9:20
Paul Swydan: But I don’t think either is particularly likely.

GP830 Draft Eligible

GP830

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9:20
Mel Clark: Which is more likely this season: Byron Buxton has a 20/20 season or Miguel Sano hits 40 HR’s?

 

9:20
Paul Swydan: Buxton
9:20
Paul Swydan: But I don’t think either is particularly likely.

I agree on Buxton, but I wonder why he's down on them. I guess Sano could not pass the 40 threshold mark and still have an excellent year. Same for Buxton.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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I agree on Buxton, but I wonder why he's down on them. I guess Sano could not pass the 40 threshold mark and still have an excellent year. Same for Buxton.

 

i'm not sure that makes him down on them. The odds of anyone hitting 40 are pretty low, and Buxton would have to hit A LOT better to be on base enough to steal 20, let alone hit 20 HRs......

 

8 players hit 20/20 last year, though a few were close....so around 12 or so did or were in the margin. The odds of Buxton joining them this aren't real high, imo.

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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9:20
Mel Clark: Which is more likely this season: Byron Buxton has a 20/20 season or Miguel Sano hits 40 HR’s?

 

9:20
Paul Swydan: Buxton
9:20
Paul Swydan: But I don’t think either is particularly likely.

This is a pretty reasonable take, though the 20/20 number for Buxton is a little nonsensical. I hate HR/SB numbers as a qualifier for a hitter. Buxton could easily have a better season as a 15/30 player than a 20/20 player. I'm not looking for a ton of long balls from Byron; if he's hitting a bunch of doubles and swiping bags at a good clip, that's more valuable to the team overall, IMO. I'll want to see the home run total rise as he loses a step but he's still a lanky 23 year old right now.

 

As for Sano, 40 HR might be a bit of a reach in 2017 but he could be immensely valuable as a 35 homer guy so whatever. What I think is key to Sano is a .360+ OBP and 25+ home runs, preferably 30+.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Noah
2:19 Do you believe in the Twins' defensive improvement? PECOTA has them 60 runs better on defense alone

 

Dan Szymborski
2:19 They *should* be much better.

 

Noah
2:28 Do any of the Twins' starters besides Ervin Santana post an average season? Which one is most likely?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:28 I think Berrios, simply because '16 in MLB aside, he *does* have updie.

 

mike sixel
2:30 Phil Hughes: effective starter, effective reliever, ugh he's signed for multiple years?

Dan Szymborski
2:30 He's had his moments before.,

Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

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This is a pretty reasonable take, though the 20/20 number for Buxton is a little nonsensical. I hate HR/SB numbers as a qualifier for a hitter. Buxton could easily have a better season as a 15/30 player than a 20/20 player. I'm not looking for a ton of long balls from Byron; if he's hitting a bunch of doubles and swiping bags at a good clip, that's more valuable to the team overall, IMO. I'll want to see the home run total rise as he loses a step but he's still a lanky 23 year old right now.

 

As for Sano, 40 HR might be a bit of a reach in 2017 but he could be immensely valuable as a 35 homer guy so whatever. What I think is key to Sano is a .360+ OBP and 25+ home runs, preferably 30+.

 

This is exactly how I look at it. 

 

I'd rather Buxton line drive some doubles and triples and let the home run power increase down the road. 

 

Sano... I want him increasing that OBP. He's going to hit home runs and a lot of home runs regardless but OBP is what will separate him from the Chris Carter type of power hitter. 

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

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9:20
Mel Clark: Which is more likely this season: Byron Buxton has a 20/20 season or Miguel Sano hits 40 HR’s?

 

9:20
Paul Swydan: Buxton
9:20
Paul Swydan: But I don’t think either is particularly likely.

 

Just an issue with the semantics possibly, but I don't think either of those things are really that outrageous. Less than 50/50 either happen, but his phrasing makes them both sound like longshots which I wouldn't think is the case.

 

Not that a 20/20 or 40 HRs automatically make for a good individual season. We've seen players do both and still look pretty ordinary or even poor.

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