Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of course April matters, but doesn't mean you should come out of gate churning through all of your depth. You won't make it to August and September.

 

It would be much more reasonable to start Berrios/Mejia in the bigs at the expense of Hughes/Santiago if there were more close to ready or mlb experiened guys sitting in AAA. The Twins org (like almost all others) just doesn't have that depth.

 

Most of us are asking that ONE rotation spot be occupied by a young player. One. Not 2, 3, 4, or 5. One. That seems reasonable on a rebuilding team, that wants to be good in 18 and beyond. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think there were more factors are work in any baseball decision than just performance on the field. The comment about depth is key. They can keep Berrios/Mejia in AAA, where as they wouldn't be able to do so with Santiago. What do you do if Berrios or Mejia struggle or get injured, and Santiago was plucked off waivers? There is an easy solution if (when) Santiago needs to be replace. It buys the Twins some time and allows a modicum of depth they wouldn't otherwise have.

Then there is the long term contract issue, especially early in the year. If Mejia is a legit prospect in the Twins eyes, with some long term potential, he will likely be kept in Rochester until they can buy an extra year of him, calling him up in May or June. Then they can dump Santiago with fewer repercussions, as well. 

 

Teams don't worry about service time for number 4/5 types. They do it for elite players.

 

As for depth, we are asking that one SP be young. That still leaves Berrios, Duffey, Haley as backups, plus whatever journeymen you sign to AAA. 

 

Every year we read we should worry about depth, and every year the rotation sucks. Mostly because they fill it with bad veterans, so that young players are in AA or AAA for depth...just in case. 

[drjim]

 

Most of us are asking that ONE rotation spot be occupied by a young player. One. Not 2, 3, 4, or 5. One. That seems reasonable on a rebuilding team, that wants to be good in 18 and beyond. 

 

And, assuming they all don't implode, your wish will be granted.

 

But even if it wasn't, does it matter much if they make the opening day roster or if the come up a couple of months into the season? Why the angst over the opening day roster? They'll get plenty of mlb run no matter what.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And, assuming they all don't implode, your wish will be granted.

 

But even if it wasn't, does it matter much if they make the opening day roster or if the come up a couple of months into the season? Why the angst over the opening day roster? They'll get plenty of mlb run no matter what.

 

Will they? I want 1-2 of them ready in 18. Berrios isn't ready this year, supposedly, despite getting "plenty of run" last year. 

 

I truly believe that guys that dominate like him need to be challenged, and to grow at the next level (from A to A+, or whatever) and that sending him to AAA won't help him much at all at this point. He can get AAA hitters out.

 

I could be totally wrong. maybe not pitching in the majors and dominating AAA makes you a better pitcher 2-3 years later....I could be wrong, maybe it isn't true that the more pitches you throw in the minors, the more likely you get less pitches in the majors, because there is a limit to the number of pitches in any body. I admit it. I don't know. But I have a bias, and that bias is to push players to be challenged, and to give the first shot to upside, young, players even while they struggle. Because if those young players don't grow, it won't matter what the 2-3 FAs do.

[drjim]

 

Will they? I want 1-2 of them ready in 18. Berrios isn't ready this year, supposedly, despite getting "plenty of run" last year. 

 

I truly believe that guys that dominate like him need to be challenged, and to grow at the next level (from A to A+, or whatever) and that sending him to AAA won't help him much at all at this point. He can get AAA hitters out.

 

I could be totally wrong. maybe not pitching in the majors and dominating AAA makes you a better pitcher 2-3 years later....I could be wrong, maybe it isn't true that the more pitches you throw in the minors, the more likely you get less pitches in the majors, because there is a limit to the number of pitches in any body. I admit it. I don't know. But I have a bias, and that bias is to push players to be challenged, and to give the first shot to upside, young, players even while they struggle. Because if those young players don't grow, it won't matter what the 2-3 FAs do.

 

By this sequence Berrios not being ready is a Berrios problem, not a roster construction problem. If he pitched even decently last year, he likely would have been Plan A coming into the spring. So instead of locking in veterans ahead of him, they would have cleared a path and backfilled with AAA depth.

[Rhino and Compass]

 

Teams don't worry about service time for number 4/5 types. They do it for elite players.

 

As for depth, we are asking that one SP be young. That still leaves Berrios, Duffey, Haley as backups, plus whatever journeymen you sign to AAA. 

 

Every year we read we should worry about depth, and every year the rotation sucks. Mostly because they fill it with bad veterans, so that young players are in AA or AAA for depth...just in case. 

 

I think the Dozier thread this offseason basically pointed out that everyone rates their pitching prospects differently. There is a remote chance that the Twins see Mejia more favorably than we do.

 

Generally,, I was playing devils advocate, and noting that performance is not the only factor that goes into roster building. Those were two examples. Maybe there is something mechanical they believe would be exposed by better hitters that they want worked out.

 

I personally hope that Santiago, pitching for Puerto Rico realizes how much he misses his home island and immediately retires, never to return to the Twins. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Depth plays a huge role in this. Much easier to keep Santiago and option Berrios, than keep Berrios and either cut/trade/bullpen Santiago.

 

Fine, but this isn't merit.  Bird keeps arguing these things don't happen.  That "merit" decides these things most of the time.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Really? How many? How do you know this? Are we sure about upside AND current ability to perform?

 

 I could be wrong about this however, as I've never really focused on the question.

 

Well, I know this with certainty - I'm not speculating.  What I am suggesting is known to happen.  You're pulling out speculation, calling it merit, and suggesting it happens most of all. 

 

When there are bubble roster spots, we know teams make decisions completely independent of performance.  Frequently.  And with the players in question never having any control over it.

[drjim]

Fine, but this isn't merit. Bird keeps arguing these things don't happen. That "merit" decides these things most of the time.

I'll let Bird handle that. I would not want to seem that absolute. But I would say track record and experience would be a part of "merit" for me.

[nicksaviking]

Depth plays a huge role in this. Much easier to keep Santiago and option Berrios, than keep Berrios and either cut/trade/bullpen Santiago.

 

But cut/trade/bullpen are not the same options. Bullpen is a perfectly fine choice unless someone is worried about veteran egos. The risk/probability couldn't be any better optimized then by sticking the vets in the pen. The team then would have six, seven maybe even eight starting options on the 25-man and the only spots being sacrificed belong to guys like O'Rourke, Breslow or Tonkin, roles that the newly penned vets can easily fill and then some considering they can go multiple inngins.

[drjim]

But cut/trade/bullpen are not the same options. Bullpen is a perfectly fine choice unless someone is worried about veteran egos. The risk/probability couldn't be any better optimized then by sticking the vets in the pen. The team then would have six, seven maybe even eight starting options on the 25-man and the only spots being sacrificed belong to guys like O'Rourke, Breslow or Tonkin, roles that the newly penned vets can easily fill and then some considering they can go multiple inngins.

Just to clarify, you want to put veteran starters into roles that haven't done in years and cut out much of the rotation and reliever depth from AAA in the process just to make sure you get guys who have proven nothing in the majors into the rotation on opening day? And if they don't perform or they have injuries, the plan is to bring those veterans back from the pen and insert them into the rotation while they have not been properly stretched out?

 

Again, just to get two guys who have proven nothing into the rotation on opening day?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

But cut/trade/bullpen are not the same options. Bullpen is a perfectly fine choice unless someone is worried about veteran egos. The risk/probability couldn't be any better optimized then by sticking the vets in the pen. The team then would have six, seven maybe even eight starting options on the 25-man and the only spots being sacrificed belong to guys like O'Rourke, Breslow or Tonkin, roles that the newly penned vets can easily fill and then some considering they can go multiple inngins.

 

This might work in April when guys are still stretched out, but transitioning someone from the pen to the rotation post April usually requires some time in the minors.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I was trying for subtlety rather than being explicit.

Yeah, but you can't smoke subtlety.  Oh, sure, you can light it up.  You just can't inhale  

[HitInAPinch]

 

Johnny Walker Black
9:43 He is no longer on 40 man roster but what are the chances Byung Ho Park beats out Kennys Vargas for DH position coming out of ST for Minny? If he does, do you think he holds the position all season and how well do you expect him to perform?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:44 So, I don't have inside Twins intel, but it does seem like Park has hit his way back into the picture. And I consider myself a Park optimist. But the fact that he was dropped like he was suggests that, even if he does win the job, he won't have much in the way of job security. If he struggled in April or May, he'd be out of a job again

Well, it's true Park was dropped.  But wasn't it also true his demotion due to injury?  He's healthy now and has looked pretty good in SP.

[HitInAPinch]

 

A couple things.  I think the Twins did what you are suggesting with the rotation, though they added May to that mix. I think if May had not gotten hurt, it's possible that Santiago would be on the bubble at the moment, but given the injury, those plans have changed. I want to believe they still go north with one of Duffey/Mejia/Berrios... and personally, I don't care too much as to which one, though I'm leaning with Mejia at the moment.

 

Giminez will bother me if he gets the gig. As we learned last year, a bit of AAA depth at C is a good thing. Without question I'd want to give JR another try.

 

I'm with you on the relievers. I'd have broken camp with at least one of the young relievers. Now that said, extra vets for 'competition' I think is a good thing. It's only really an issue if they don't do that. I've got to think Chargois or Melotakis heads north though.... Hope I'm right.

I really think a spot should be reserved for Berrios.  He's really done all he can in MiLB.  He needs the innings against MLB hitters to further refine his game.

[bird]

 

Fine, but this isn't merit.  Bird keeps arguing these things don't happen.  That "merit" decides these things most of the time.

 

 

And I still believe that if any of the young guys was considered to be a major upgrade over any of the vets to start the season, they go with the young guy. Of course depth is a consideration. Your argument is that, more often than not, decisions are made for reasons other than which player has more ability. Current ability to give the team passable innings as a starter. You seem to think service time is a common factor in a lot of these decisions. I don't buy that at all. But if things are pretty equal (which is very commonly the case), and further development and seasoning is one of the possible benefits, sure, of course teams will make use of the depth they created and have the younger player serve as the first replacement of many replacements over the course of a long season. Making a decision SOLELY for the purpose of using this depth? These things don't happen. 

[nicksaviking]

This might work in April when guys are still stretched out, but transitioning someone from the pen to the rotation post April usually requires some time in the minors.

The Cubs and Dodgers have been doing it for s couple years now. I don't know why it wouldn't work with the Twins.

 

I wasn't trying to take credit for something innovative, just suggesting the Twins take a successful but under-hyped strategy these other clubs are using.

[TheLeviathan]

But if things are pretty equal (which is very commonly the case), and further development and seasoning is one of the possible benefits, sure, of course teams will make use of the depth

You often sound like you don't actually think what you say you think about this.

[Oxtung]

The Cubs and Dodgers have been doing it for s couple years now. I don't know why it wouldn't work with the Twins.

 

I wasn't trying to take credit for something innovative, just suggesting the Twins take a successful but under-hyped strategy these other clubs are using.

I quickly looked into the Dodgers and Cubs for the last 2 seasons and while they have moved Veteran starters to the bullpen it was always a permenant move. I couldn't find one that intentionally started the season in the bullpen and then returned to the rotation at some point. Could you provide some names that I might have missed please?

[drjim]

I quickly looked into the Dodgers and Cubs for the last 2 seasons and while they have moved Veteran starters to the bullpen it was always a permenant move. I couldn't find one that intentionally started the season in the bullpen and then returned to the rotation at some point. Could you provide some names that I might have missed please?

Don't look too long. The strategy as described doesn't exist. What it gains in innovation it loses in being a bad idea.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I really think a spot should be reserved for Berrios.  He's really done all he can in MiLB.  He needs the innings against MLB hitters to further refine his game.

 

I get that, and I wouldn't be upset if he got first crack over Mejia as well.  I just think that at the moment, Mejia has earned it (obviously that can change) and Berrios showed nothing last year that says he's ready this spring.  Regardless, one of the three should go north over Vogelsong in my opinion. I'd have been fine putting all in AAA with May as my top guy before his injury, but with him out, I think you roll with one young guy.  That leaves two of the prospects in AAA along with Wheeler, possibly Gonsalves, and a guy like Vogelsong. That's a decent crop of guys to use on the Rochester shuttle in what will likely be a lost season anyways. 

[ashbury]

That leaves two of the prospects in AAA along with Wheeler, possibly Gonsalves, and a guy like Vogelsong.

Vogelsong has an opt-out pretty soon, right? I guess there's other guys "like" Vogelsong (ten or twelve priced about $0.10, or so it's said), but not him specifically, probably.

[bird]

 

You often sound like you don't actually think what you say you think about this.

 

 

Sorry my friend. I can't control the sounds that enter your ears.   I don't tend to speak in as absolute terms as some would like, I know that. In the case of the topic we're discussing, I'm pushing back on opinions you're putting out there as black and white. These roster decisions are often more nuanced. I apologize for lacking the ability to articulate the differences between what you describe in such absolute language and what I believe is often involved.

[TheLeviathan]

Describing it as "common" for decisions to be made based on depth/roster rules directly contradicts the very black and white comment you made about merit to start this line of discussion

[Willihammer]

Vogelsong has an opt-out pretty soon, right? I guess there's other guys "like" Vogelsong (ten or twelve priced about $0.10, or so it's said), but not him specifically, probably.

Hogan Pino will be there.

[Twins33]

Hogan Pino will be there.

interesting choice by autocorrect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hogan Pino will be there.

His entrance music could be "I'm a Real Venezuelan"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guG9cVs3ms4

[HitInAPinch]

 

I get that, and I wouldn't be upset if he got first crack over Mejia as well.  I just think that at the moment, Mejia has earned it (obviously that can change) and Berrios showed nothing last year that says he's ready this spring.  Regardless, one of the three should go north over Vogelsong in my opinion. I'd have been fine putting all in AAA with May as my top guy before his injury, but with him out, I think you roll with one young guy.  That leaves two of the prospects in AAA along with Wheeler, possibly Gonsalves, and a guy like Vogelsong. That's a decent crop of guys to use on the Rochester shuttle in what will likely be a lost season anyways. 

I get what you're saying.  IMHO:  if the Twins are judging Berrios on a small sample size [and after the debacle in the handling of Berrios and Meyers in Houston] then the Twins should just try to trade him or otherwise let him go.  However, I doubt they are judging him that way and, well, hope springs eternal.  Or eternally?

 

From what I've seen of Mejia, he looks like he has a clue on how to pitch.  At 22 and 23 yrs. old, the Twins should be looking for a way to get both into the MLB this year.  All-star break sounds about right...

[nicksaviking]

Don't look too long. The strategy as described doesn't exist. What it gains in innovation it loses in being a bad idea.

Bud Norris, Clayton Richard, Travis Wood.

[drjim]

Bud Norris, Clayton Richard, Travis Wood.

So Norris started the year in the rotation, got kicked to long man, and then made spot starts later.

 

Richard was a bullpen piece that had to change orgs to start.

 

Wood was a reliever from day 1 in 2016. In 2015 he started the season in the rotation and was bounced to the pen in May (did make 2 starts in Sept).

 

Your examples pretty explicitly argue against the strategy you want to start the season employing.